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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

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Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (12-17) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
South Dakota (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Bryant (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
North Dakota (8-22) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
CS Bakersfld (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
Incarnate Word (18-10) 18-10 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (17-11) 17-11 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
Neb Omaha (12-17) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
Grand Canyon (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate (23-11) 23-11 0% 0% 0%
15 61 N Dakota St (23-9) 23-9 100% 100% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (22-10) 22-10 0% 0% 0%
Longwood (11-23) 11-23 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Houston Bap (12-16) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
16 67 N Florida (23-11) 23-11 100% 100% 0%
Central Ark (2-27) 2-27 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (12-16) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
NC Central (25-7) 25-7 0% 0% 0%
Abilene Christian (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
Kennesaw St (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (15-20) 15-20 0% 0% 0%
Alabama (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
7 28 LSU (22-10) 22-10 70% 0% 0%
Miss State (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
4 16 Arkansas (26-7) 26-7 100% 11% 0%
Mississippi (20-12) 20-12 47% 0% 0%
S Carolina (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Florida (16-17) 16-17 1% 0% 0%
9 35 Georgia (21-11) 21-11 90% 0% 0%
Tennessee (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (33-0) 33-0 100% 89% 99%
13 51 Ste F Austin (29-4) 29-4 100% 100% 0%
Texas State (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
McNeese St (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
TX-Arlington (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
SE Louisiana (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
NW State (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Sam Hous St (25-8) 25-8 0% 0% 0%
Nicholls St (10-19) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Lamar (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (21-12) 21-12 0% 0% 0%
TX-Pan Am (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
TX A&M-CC (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Savannah St (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
IPFW (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
Columbia (13-15) 13-15 0% 0% 0%
Cornell (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
Yale (22-10) 22-10 1% 0% 0%
Dartmouth (14-14) 14-14 0% 0% 0%
13 52 Harvard (22-7) 22-7 100% 100% 0%
U Penn (9-19) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Brown (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-Chi (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Youngs St (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
6 21 Butler (22-10) 22-10 100% 0% 0%
WI-Milwkee (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (10-24) 10-24 0% 0% 0%
WI-Grn Bay (24-8) 24-8 1% 0% 0%
Cleveland St (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Detroit (15-18) 15-18 0% 0% 0%
Radford (21-11) 21-11 0% 0% 0%
Charl South (19-11) 19-11 0% 0% 0%
Winthrop (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
15 62 Coastal Car (24-9) 24-9 100% 100% 0%
VA Military (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Liberty (8-24) 8-24 0% 0% 0%
High Point (22-9) 22-9 0% 0% 0%
NC-Asheville (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Hawaii (22-13) 22-13 0% 0% 0%
Fresno St (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Nevada (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
5 20 S Methodist (26-6) 26-6 100% 47% 0%
LA Tech (25-8) 25-8 0% 0% 0%
Rice (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (22-10) 22-10 0% 0% 0%
11 41 Tulsa (22-10) 22-10 94% 0% 0%
11 45 Boise State (25-8) 25-8 60% 0% 0%
San Jose St (2-28) 2-28 0% 0% 0%
8 30 Georgetown (21-10) 21-10 100% 0% 0%
4 15 Providence (22-11) 22-11 100% 0% 0%
8 31 St Johns (21-11) 21-11 99% 0% 0%
Rutgers (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (19-14) 19-14 1% 0% 0%
Miami (FL) (21-12) 21-12 51% 0% 0%
12 49 Connecticut (20-13) 20-13 64% 53% 0%
VA Tech (11-22) 11-22 0% 0% 0%
3 10 Notre Dame (29-5) 29-5 100% 100% 0%
1 2 Villanova (32-2) 32-2 100% 100% 81%
6 23 W Virginia (23-9) 23-9 100% 0% 0%
Syracuse (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Boston Col (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Pepperdine (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
2 8 Gonzaga (32-2) 32-2 100% 100% 1%
Loyola Mymt (8-23) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
St Marys (21-9) 21-9 2% 0% 0%
Portland (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Austin Peay (8-22) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
E Kentucky (19-11) 19-11 0% 0% 0%
TN Tech (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
TN Martin (18-12) 18-12 0% 0% 0%
E Illinois (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (27-5) 27-5 1% 0% 0%
SE Missouri (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Morehead St (17-17) 17-17 0% 0% 0%
Jksnville St (12-19) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
TN State (5-26) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
Samford (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
4 14 Baylor (24-9) 24-9 100% 0% 0%
Missouri (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
2 7 Kansas (26-8) 26-8 100% 0% 2%
Texas A&M (20-11) 20-11 3% 0% 0%
Colorado (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
3 9 Iowa State (25-8) 25-8 100% 100% 0%
Kansas St (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Texas (20-13) 20-13 51% 0% 0%
11 43 Oklahoma St (18-13) 18-13 74% 0% 0%
3 11 Oklahoma (22-10) 22-10 100% 0% 0%
Florida Intl (16-17) 16-17 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
AR Lit Rock (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Arkansas St (11-18) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Middle Tenn (19-16) 19-16 0% 0% 0%
LA Lafayette (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
New Orleans (11-18) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
S Alabama (12-21) 12-21 0% 0% 0%
North Texas (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Denver (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 68 N Mex State (23-10) 23-10 100% 100% 0%
Idaho State (7-23) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
N Arizona (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
Sac State (20-11) 20-11 0% 0% 0%
Weber State (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Montana (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
Montana St (7-23) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (15-14) 15-14 0% 0% 0%
14 56 E Washingtn (26-8) 26-8 100% 100% 0%
13 53 Wyoming (24-9) 24-9 100% 100% 0%
5 18 Utah (24-8) 24-8 100% 0% 0%
Colorado St (27-6) 27-6 59% 0% 0%
New Mexico (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
10 39 San Diego St (26-8) 26-8 89% 0% 0%
UNLV (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
10 37 BYU (25-9) 25-9 93% 0% 0%
Air Force (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
14 55 Albany (24-8) 24-8 100% 100% 0%
Maine (3-27) 3-27 0% 0% 0%
Vermont (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Binghamton (6-26) 6-26 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Boston U (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Maryland BC (4-26) 4-26 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
12 50 Northeastrn (23-11) 23-11 100% 100% 0%
Stony Brook (23-11) 23-11 0% 0% 0%
Illinois St (21-12) 21-12 1% 0% 0%
Drake (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
5 19 N Iowa (30-3) 30-3 100% 100% 0%
Missouri St (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Bradley (9-24) 9-24 0% 0% 0%
Creighton (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
4 13 Wichita St (28-4) 28-4 100% 0% 0%
S Illinois (12-21) 12-21 0% 0% 0%
Evansville (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Indiana St (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Delaware St (18-17) 18-17 0% 0% 0%
NC A&T (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
16 66 Hampton (16-17) 16-17 100% 100% 0%
Beth-Cook (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Morgan St (7-24) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
S Car State (11-22) 11-22 0% 0% 0%
Howard (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
Maryland ES (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Coppin State (8-23) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
Florida A&M (2-27) 2-27 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (10-20) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Geo Mason (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
James Mad (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Old Dominion (24-7) 24-7 1% 0% 0%
Hofstra (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
9 33 VCU (25-9) 25-9 99% 60% 0%
NC-Wilmgton (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Wm & Mary (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
Towson (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
Citadel (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
9 34 Davidson (24-7) 24-7 94% 0% 0%
12 48 Wofford (28-6) 28-6 100% 100% 0%
Col Charlestn (9-24) 9-24 0% 0% 0%
Furman (11-22) 11-22 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (22-8) 22-8 26% 26% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (11-22) 11-22 0% 0% 0%
Elon (15-18) 15-18 0% 0% 0%
Chattanooga (22-10) 22-10 0% 0% 0%
W Carolina (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
E Tenn St (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
App State (12-17) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
15 59 Belmont (22-10) 22-10 100% 100% 0%
Campbell (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Fla Atlantic (9-20) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Jacksonville (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
14 57 Georgia St (23-9) 23-9 75% 74% 0%
Gard-Webb (20-14) 20-14 0% 0% 0%
Central FL (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Mercer (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Troy (10-19) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Fordham (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (22-9) 22-9 1% 0% 0%
St Josephs (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
10 40 Temple (23-10) 23-10 97% 0% 0%
Duquesne (12-19) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
9 36 Dayton (25-7) 25-7 94% 40% 0%
7 27 Xavier (21-13) 21-13 100% 0% 0%
La Salle (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Richmond (19-13) 19-13 4% 0% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (21-12) 21-12 0% 0% 0%
Alabama St (19-10) 19-10 0% 0% 0%
Southern (18-17) 18-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Prairie View (15-18) 15-18 0% 0% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
16 64 TX Southern (22-12) 22-12 100% 100% 0%
Miss Val St (6-26) 6-26 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (2-27) 2-27 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (9-20) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Alcorn State (6-26) 6-26 0% 0% 0%
Ohio (10-20) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Marshall (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Akron (21-14) 21-14 0% 0% 0%
11 44 Buffalo (23-9) 23-9 100% 100% 0%
Miami (OH) (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (21-11) 21-11 0% 0% 0%
N Illinois (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
E Michigan (21-13) 21-13 0% 0% 0%
Bowling Grn (20-11) 20-11 0% 0% 0%
Toledo (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
W Michigan (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
Ball State (7-23) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (23-8) 23-8 0% 0% 0%
Mt St Marys (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
St Fran (PA) (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Central Conn (5-26) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
Quinnipiac (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
16 65 Rob Morris (19-14) 19-14 100% 100% 0%
F Dickinson (8-21) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Monmouth (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Sacred Hrt (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Wagner (10-20) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
St Fran (NY) (23-11) 23-11 0% 0% 0%
Oakland (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
UMKC (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
12 47 Valparaiso (28-5) 28-5 100% 100% 0%
Oral Roberts (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
IUPUI (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
W Illinois (8-20) 8-20 0% 0% 0%
S Utah (10-19) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (8-24) 8-24 0% 0% 0%
Cal Poly (13-16) 13-16 0% 0% 0%
UC Davis (25-6) 25-6 0% 0% 0%
Lg Beach St (16-17) 16-17 0% 0% 0%
UC Riverside (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
UCSB (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Utah State (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (9-24) 9-24 0% 0% 0%
13 54 UC Irvine (21-12) 21-12 100% 100% 0%
Idaho (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
CS Fullerton (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Pacific (12-19) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
14 58 Lafayette (20-12) 20-12 100% 100% 0%
Army (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
Colgate (16-17) 16-17 0% 0% 0%
Navy (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (15-14) 15-14 0% 0% 0%
American (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Bucknell (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
Holy Cross (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
1 4 Wisconsin (30-3) 30-3 100% 71% 54%
10 38 Purdue (21-12) 21-12 80% 0% 0%
8 29 Iowa (21-11) 21-11 97% 0% 0%
Michigan (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
Penn State (18-16) 18-16 0% 0% 0%
11 42 Ohio State (23-10) 23-10 87% 15% 0%
6 22 Michigan St (23-10) 23-10 100% 11% 0%
Indiana (20-13) 20-13 18% 0% 0%
Illinois (19-13) 19-13 1% 0% 0%
Minnesota (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Northwestern (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Marquette (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Tulane (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
S Mississippi (9-20) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
DePaul (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
15 60 UAB (19-15) 19-15 100% 100% 0%
S Florida (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
Memphis (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
E Carolina (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
5 17 Louisville (24-8) 24-8 100% 0% 0%
Houston (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
7 25 Cincinnati (22-10) 22-10 99% 0% 0%
Charlotte (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
Saint Louis (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Wash State (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
7 26 Oregon (25-9) 25-9 100% 0% 0%
USC (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
11 46 UCLA (20-13) 20-13 64% 0% 0%
Oregon St (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
Stanford (19-13) 19-13 2% 0% 0%
California (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Washington (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Arizona St (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
1 3 Arizona (31-3) 31-3 100% 100% 71%
Florida St (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
2 6 Virginia (29-3) 29-3 100% 0% 45%
Clemson (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
3 12 Maryland (27-6) 27-6 100% 3% 0%
8 32 NC State (20-13) 20-13 99% 0% 0%
2 5 Duke (29-4) 29-4 100% 0% 47%
Wake Forest (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
GA Tech (12-19) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
6 24 N Carolina (24-11) 24-11 100% 0% 0%
Fairfield (7-24) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
16 63 Manhattan (19-13) 19-13 100% 100% 0%
Iona (26-8) 26-8 11% 0% 0%
Rider (21-11) 21-11 0% 0% 0%
St Peters (16-18) 16-18 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-MD (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
Siena (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Marist (7-25) 7-25 0% 0% 0%
Niagara (8-22) 8-22 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 98.6%
Villanova 80.8%
Arizona 71.1%
Wisconsin 54.0%
Duke 46.9%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Valparaiso 100.0%
Coastal Car 100.0%
Gonzaga 100.0%
Manhattan 100.0%
Northeastrn 100.0%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Miami (FL) 51.2%
Texas 51.3%
Mississippi 47.2%
Colorado St 59.1%
Boise State 59.9%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Hampton 100.0% 97.1%
Wyoming 100.0% 94.5%
UAB 100.0% 87.3%
Lafayette 100.0% 83.4%
Manhattan 100.0% 80.7%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Iona 10.8% -52.2%
S Dakota St 0.0% -50.9%
Yale 1.1% -49.8%
WI-Grn Bay 0.7% -42.4%
Sam Hous St 0.0% -37.4%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Hampton 100.0% 97.1%
Wyoming 100.0% 94.5%
Notre Dame 100.0% 91.6%
UAB 100.0% 87.3%
Lafayette 100.0% 83.4%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Ohio State 15.1% -7.7%
Maryland 3.1% -2.0%
Michigan St 10.9% 0.6%
Arkansas 10.7% 4.0%
GA Southern 25.6% 6.0%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Wisconsin 54.0% 17.2%
Arizona 71.1% 7.8%
Villanova 80.8% 1.2%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Duke 46.9% -13.6%
Virginia 45.2% -10.8%
Kansas 1.9% -1.4%
Gonzaga 1.1% -0.3%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Michigan St 6.4 -1.0
S Methodist 5.6 -0.6
Oregon 6.9 -0.5
Maryland 3.8 -0.4
Xavier 7.3 -0.4

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Ohio State 10.1 2.2
Memphis 13.5 1.0
Geo Wshgtn 13.0 0.8
Alabama 13.3 0.7
Old Dominion 11.6 0.7

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