This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2015-2016 NCAA BB season.
To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2016-2017 NCAA BB section, register for a free account.
Basketball Bracketology Trends 2016
Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| CS Bakersfld | 100.0% | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Hampton | 100.0% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Weber State | 100.0% | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Hawaii | 100.0% | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| AR Lit Rock | 76.2% | 44.1% | 32.1% |
| LA Monroe | 34.1% | 11.6% | 22.5% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | 24.9% | 88.8% | -63.9% |
| Lg Beach St | 1.0% | 41.5% | -40.5% |
| Michigan | 41.0% | 62.5% | -21.4% |
| TX A&M-CC | 0.0% | 18.2% | -18.2% |
| Georgia | 6.4% | 18.5% | -12.1% |
| Davidson | 0.2% | 10.8% | -10.6% |
| Tulsa | 30.4% | 40.9% | -10.5% |
| LSU | 0.9% | 10.7% | -9.8% |
| Hofstra | 38.2% | 43.9% | -5.7% |
| Vanderbilt | 13.7% | 19.0% | -5.3% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Cross | 100.0% | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| WI-Grn Bay | 100.0% | 3.6% | 96.4% |
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 4.8% | 95.2% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| F Dickinson | 100.0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Hampton | 100.0% | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| Iona | 100.0% | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| Hawaii | 100.0% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valparaiso | 26.2% | 87.2% | -61.0% |
| Vanderbilt | 13.7% | 73.5% | -59.9% |
| UAB | 0.0% | 50.8% | -50.8% |
| Evansville | 0.0% | 50.7% | -50.7% |
| Monmouth | 3.1% | 46.6% | -43.5% |
| Tulsa | 30.4% | 66.3% | -35.8% |
| Houston | 1.4% | 36.7% | -35.3% |
| Wm & Mary | 0.3% | 32.0% | -31.7% |
| Akron | 24.9% | 55.6% | -30.7% |
| S Carolina | 11.0% | 41.5% | -30.5% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Cross | 100.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Austin Peay | 100.0% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| WI-Grn Bay | 100.0% | 3.8% | 96.2% |
| F Dickinson | 100.0% | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| N Iowa | 100.0% | 8.8% | 91.2% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 10.4% | 89.6% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Fla Gulf Cst | 100.0% | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| Iona | 100.0% | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 13.4% | 68.0% | -54.7% |
| S Carolina | 11.0% | 65.5% | -54.5% |
| Valparaiso | 26.2% | 79.8% | -53.6% |
| UAB | 0.0% | 51.6% | -51.6% |
| Monmouth | 3.1% | 47.9% | -44.7% |
| Akron | 24.9% | 68.6% | -43.7% |
| Belmont | 0.0% | 43.2% | -43.2% |
| Wichita St | 51.2% | 90.5% | -39.3% |
| Tulsa | 30.4% | 66.4% | -35.9% |
| Syracuse | 4.3% | 39.9% | -35.6% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall | 100.0% | 23.2% | 76.8% |
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| CS Bakersfld | 100.0% | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| N Carolina | 100.0% | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Hampton | 100.0% | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Kansas | 100.0% | 55.9% | 44.1% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Cross | 100.0% | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| WI-Grn Bay | 100.0% | 3.6% | 96.4% |
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| Seton Hall | 100.0% | 6.4% | 93.6% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 11.9% | 88.1% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 12.6% | 87.4% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 15.9% | 84.1% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| F Dickinson | 100.0% | 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Hampton | 100.0% | 19.8% | 80.2% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fla Gulf Cst | 100.0% | 85.4% | 14.6% |
| Stony Brook | 100.0% | 83.6% | 16.4% |
| Kentucky | 58.5% | 41.3% | 17.3% |
| Michigan St | 60.0% | 40.9% | 19.1% |
| LA Monroe | 34.1% | 14.1% | 20.0% |
| Memphis | 30.0% | 6.8% | 23.2% |
| Texas A&M | 41.5% | 18.3% | 23.2% |
| Ste F Austin | 100.0% | 76.4% | 23.6% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holy Cross | 100.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% |
| Austin Peay | 100.0% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| WI-Grn Bay | 100.0% | 3.8% | 96.2% |
| Seton Hall | 100.0% | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| F Dickinson | 100.0% | 5.1% | 94.9% |
| Fresno St | 100.0% | 5.9% | 94.1% |
| N Iowa | 100.0% | 8.8% | 91.2% |
| Middle Tenn | 100.0% | 10.3% | 89.7% |
| Buffalo | 100.0% | 11.0% | 89.0% |
| Fla Gulf Cst | 100.0% | 12.8% | 87.2% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | 41.5% | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| St Josephs | 38.9% | 17.5% | 21.4% |
| Kentucky | 58.5% | 35.9% | 22.6% |
| LA Monroe | 34.1% | 10.5% | 23.6% |
| Purdue | 40.0% | 15.5% | 24.5% |
| Memphis | 30.0% | 4.6% | 25.5% |
| Stony Brook | 100.0% | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| Michigan St | 60.0% | 33.0% | 27.1% |
| AR Lit Rock | 65.9% | 36.2% | 29.7% |
| VCU | 61.1% | 31.2% | 29.9% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed
Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 54.2% | 43.9% | 10.2% |
| N Carolina | 17.3% | 13.3% | 4.1% |
| Miami (FL) | 32.7% | 30.9% | 1.8% |
| Michigan St | 13.0% | 11.6% | 1.4% |
| Kentucky | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Kansas | 99.2% | 99.0% | 0.2% |
| Indiana | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Texas A&M | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 54.2% | 31.8% | 22.4% |
| N Carolina | 17.3% | 12.7% | 4.6% |
| Villanova | 66.4% | 63.5% | 2.9% |
| Kentucky | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Texas A&M | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 52.9% | 60.4% | -7.6% |
| Miami (FL) | 32.7% | 39.9% | -7.2% |
| Oklahoma | 11.7% | 18.0% | -6.3% |
| Michigan St | 13.0% | 16.1% | -3.1% |
| W Virginia | 5.4% | 7.2% | -1.8% |
| Indiana | 2.6% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| Maryland | 0.3% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| Utah | 1.6% | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| Duke | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| Wisconsin | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 54.2% | 22.9% | 31.3% |
| Miami (FL) | 32.7% | 14.5% | 18.3% |
| Virginia | 52.9% | 35.3% | 17.5% |
| Kansas | 99.2% | 86.5% | 12.7% |
| W Virginia | 5.4% | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| Indiana | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% |
| N Carolina | 17.3% | 16.4% | 0.9% |
| Utah | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Texas A&M | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Xavier | 37.0% | 36.8% | 0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 11.7% | 35.4% | -23.7% |
| Villanova | 66.4% | 87.2% | -20.9% |
| Duke | 0.4% | 14.0% | -13.7% |
| Michigan St | 13.0% | 19.8% | -6.8% |
| Maryland | 0.3% | 6.7% | -6.4% |
| Kentucky | 2.9% | 9.1% | -6.2% |
| Iowa | 0.1% | 4.9% | -4.8% |
| Arizona | 0.1% | 3.4% | -3.2% |
| Iowa State | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| Dayton | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
Projected Avg. Seed
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall | 6.2 | 6.7 | -0.5 |
| VCU | 8.3 | 8.6 | -0.4 |
| St Josephs | 8.9 | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| St Bonavent | 8.0 | 8.2 | -0.3 |
| Princeton | 11.9 | 12.2 | -0.2 |
| N Carolina | 2.3 | 2.5 | -0.2 |
| Geo Wshgtn | 11.1 | 11.3 | -0.2 |
| Oregon | 1.6 | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Houston | 10.3 | 10.5 | -0.2 |
| Gonzaga | 11.0 | 11.2 | -0.2 |
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 11.4 | 10.5 | 0.9 |
| San Diego St | 8.7 | 8.2 | 0.6 |
| Akron | 10.8 | 10.2 | 0.5 |
| Davidson | 12.9 | 12.6 | 0.3 |
| Lg Beach St | 12.5 | 12.2 | 0.3 |
| Georgia | 12.1 | 11.8 | 0.3 |
| Utah | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| W Virginia | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| Dayton | 6.4 | 6.2 | 0.2 |
| Texas | 5.5 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall | 6.2 | 7.6 | -1.4 |
| VCU | 8.3 | 9.1 | -0.8 |
| Temple | 8.9 | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| St Josephs | 8.9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| NC-Wilmgton | 10.1 | 10.6 | -0.5 |
| Purdue | 4.7 | 5.1 | -0.4 |
| Oregon | 1.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 |
| Providence | 8.0 | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| St Bonavent | 8.0 | 8.3 | -0.4 |
| Colorado | 8.7 | 9.1 | -0.4 |
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 9.7 | 8.7 | 1.0 |
| Creighton | 12.7 | 11.8 | 0.9 |
| Florida St | 12.0 | 11.1 | 0.9 |
| LSU | 11.4 | 10.5 | 0.9 |
| Syracuse | 9.8 | 9.0 | 0.8 |
| Tulsa | 10.2 | 9.4 | 0.8 |
| Mississippi | 12.4 | 11.7 | 0.8 |
| Geo Wshgtn | 11.1 | 10.3 | 0.8 |
| BYU | 12.1 | 11.3 | 0.8 |
| Houston | 10.3 | 9.5 | 0.8 |
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall | 6.2 | 9.3 | -3.2 |
| Texas | 5.5 | 7.5 | -2.0 |
| Wisconsin | 5.5 | 7.3 | -1.7 |
| Colorado | 8.7 | 10.5 | -1.7 |
| Utah | 3.7 | 5.4 | -1.7 |
| W Virginia | 3.0 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| California | 5.4 | 6.8 | -1.5 |
| Indiana | 3.4 | 4.8 | -1.4 |
| San Diego St | 8.7 | 10.0 | -1.3 |
| VA Tech | 12.2 | 13.4 | -1.2 |
Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 |
| Creighton | 12.7 | 9.8 | 2.9 |
| Alabama | 12.4 | 10.0 | 2.4 |
| Washington | 12.9 | 10.6 | 2.4 |
| Iowa | 6.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Michigan | 12.2 | 10.0 | 2.2 |
| Geo Wshgtn | 11.1 | 8.9 | 2.2 |
| Florida | 11.4 | 9.5 | 1.9 |
| Duke | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| BYU | 12.1 | 10.3 | 1.8 |