Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself.

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Howard	53.3%	49.2%	4.1%
Boston U	6.8%	4.7%	2.2%
New Mexico	38.4%	36.6%	1.9%
Marshall	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%
LIU	69.4%	67.9%	1.5%
SF Austin	25.5%	24.3%	1.2%
Texas So	8.4%	7.3%	1.1%
Vermont	42.0%	41.0%	1.0%
Alabama St	6.4%	5.4%	1.0%
Alabama A&M	7.1%	6.1%	1.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Colgate	24.7%	28.1%	-3.4%
Grambling	11.4%	13.7%	-2.3%
S Alabama	13.3%	15.2%	-1.9%
Bethune	25.0%	26.8%	-1.8%
Miami	55.7%	57.4%	-1.6%
Maryland ES	5.6%	7.1%	-1.5%
Seton Hall	31.4%	32.5%	-1.2%
NJIT	11.0%	11.9%	-1.0%
Morgan St	5.0%	5.9%	-0.9%
C Connecticut	23.9%	24.8%	-0.9%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Miami	55.7%	22.5%	33.2%
Seton Hall	31.4%	13.9%	17.5%
Texas	72.3%	57.9%	14.4%
VCU	60.3%	46.7%	13.6%
New Mexico	38.4%	27.1%	11.4%
S Florida	37.6%	27.3%	10.3%
Howard	53.3%	45.2%	8.1%
Wisconsin	100.0%	93.0%	7.0%
UMBC	34.5%	28.1%	6.4%
Robert Morris	14.0%	8.2%	5.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Texas A&M	31.2%	56.1%	-24.9%
Creighton	6.1%	24.5%	-18.3%
Washington	15.2%	33.3%	-18.1%
Boise St	19.7%	33.6%	-14.0%
Baylor	8.3%	21.8%	-13.5%
UCF	68.6%	81.6%	-13.0%
Austin Peay	33.4%	42.6%	-9.2%
Georgia	87.0%	94.5%	-7.5%
Iowa	90.8%	97.7%	-7.0%
Oakland	27.7%	34.5%	-6.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Texas	72.3%	46.8%	25.5%
Santa Clara	82.2%	58.3%	23.9%
VCU	60.3%	37.3%	23.0%
Howard	53.3%	30.6%	22.7%
Indiana	97.8%	75.9%	21.9%
Missouri	39.7%	18.6%	21.0%
Miami	55.7%	36.4%	19.4%
Seton Hall	31.4%	12.4%	18.9%
Wisconsin	100.0%	82.1%	17.9%
Navy	54.5%	37.7%	16.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Creighton	6.1%	63.5%	-57.3%
Washington	15.2%	38.8%	-23.6%
Texas A&M	31.2%	52.0%	-20.8%
LSU	0.9%	17.0%	-16.0%
Virginia Tech	28.2%	44.2%	-15.9%
New Mexico	38.4%	54.2%	-15.7%
American	7.4%	22.2%	-14.8%
Butler	0.8%	15.0%	-14.2%
Wake Forest	8.9%	22.5%	-13.6%
Troy	33.8%	45.9%	-12.1%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Howard	53.3%	49.2%	4.1%
Duke	53.5%	50.7%	2.8%
Boston U	6.8%	4.7%	2.2%
Marshall	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%
LIU	69.4%	67.9%	1.5%
SF Austin	25.5%	24.3%	1.2%
Texas So	8.4%	7.3%	1.1%
Vermont	42.0%	41.0%	1.0%
Alabama St	6.4%	5.4%	1.0%
Alabama A&M	7.1%	6.1%	1.0%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Colgate	24.7%	28.1%	-3.4%
Grambling	11.4%	13.7%	-2.3%
S Alabama	13.3%	15.2%	-1.9%
Bethune	25.0%	26.8%	-1.8%
Maryland ES	5.6%	7.1%	-1.5%
NJIT	11.0%	11.9%	-1.0%
Morgan St	5.0%	5.9%	-0.9%
C Connecticut	23.9%	24.8%	-0.9%
McNeese	65.0%	65.9%	-0.9%
Louisville	18.2%	19.0%	-0.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
S Florida	36.4%	27.0%	9.5%
Howard	53.3%	45.2%	8.1%
UMBC	34.5%	28.1%	6.4%
Robert Morris	14.0%	8.2%	5.8%
S Alabama	13.3%	7.9%	5.4%
Cornell	23.8%	19.1%	4.7%
Lipscomb	20.6%	16.1%	4.5%
Samford	12.4%	8.0%	4.4%
Merrimack	19.9%	15.7%	4.1%
Duke	53.5%	49.8%	3.7%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Austin Peay	33.4%	42.6%	-9.2%
Oakland	27.7%	34.5%	-6.8%
Troy	33.8%	40.5%	-6.7%
Marist	16.8%	22.6%	-5.8%
Colgate	24.7%	30.3%	-5.6%
Tulsa	28.6%	33.8%	-5.2%
Vermont	42.0%	46.1%	-4.1%
NC Central	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%
E Tennessee St	33.0%	36.8%	-3.8%
Hawai'i	35.4%	38.9%	-3.5%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Howard	53.3%	30.6%	22.7%
Navy	54.5%	37.7%	16.8%
App State	19.0%	5.7%	13.2%
Florida	32.8%	20.6%	12.2%
C Arkansas	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%
UMBC	34.5%	25.0%	9.6%
Robert Morris	14.0%	4.6%	9.4%
NJIT	11.0%	1.7%	9.2%
Merrimack	19.9%	10.7%	9.2%
S Florida	36.4%	27.6%	8.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
American	7.4%	22.2%	-14.8%
Troy	33.8%	45.9%	-12.1%
Maryland ES	5.6%	17.4%	-11.8%
Lipscomb	20.6%	32.1%	-11.5%
Florida Atlantic	3.1%	14.1%	-11.0%
UT Arlington	9.0%	18.7%	-9.6%
Tennessee St	13.9%	23.0%	-9.1%
Vermont	42.0%	51.0%	-9.0%
Columbia	2.4%	11.2%	-8.8%
UCSD	10.2%	18.5%	-8.3%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Iowa St	19.9%	14.7%	5.2%
Duke	92.0%	89.0%	3.0%
UConn	29.4%	28.3%	1.0%
Purdue	16.5%	16.1%	0.4%
Illinois	3.4%	3.2%	0.2%
Texas Tech	1.7%	1.5%	0.2%
Florida	14.5%	14.4%	0.1%
Vanderbilt	4.9%	4.8%	0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Houston	43.5%	53.5%	-10.0%
Arizona	71.7%	72.0%	-0.3%
Michigan	93.4%	93.6%	-0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Purdue	16.5%	6.3%	10.2%
Florida	14.5%	6.7%	7.9%
Duke	92.0%	84.3%	7.7%
Michigan	93.4%	90.5%	3.0%
Vanderbilt	4.9%	2.1%	2.8%
UConn	29.4%	27.4%	2.0%
Texas Tech	1.7%	0.2%	1.5%
Arkansas	1.2%	0.3%	0.9%
Virginia	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%
St John's	1.0%	0.8%	0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Arizona	71.7%	85.2%	-13.5%
Illinois	3.4%	9.7%	-6.3%
Iowa St	19.9%	25.8%	-5.9%
Houston	43.5%	46.9%	-3.4%
Kansas	2.5%	5.1%	-2.5%
Nebraska	1.4%	3.8%	-2.5%
Michigan St	0.7%	2.9%	-2.2%
North Carolina	0.2%	0.4%	-0.3%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Houston	43.5%	22.3%	21.2%
Michigan	93.4%	78.6%	14.8%
Florida	14.5%	0.9%	13.6%
Iowa St	19.9%	12.8%	7.1%
Vanderbilt	4.9%	3.2%	1.7%
Kansas	2.5%	1.1%	1.4%
Arkansas	1.2%	0.7%	0.5%
St John's	1.0%	0.6%	0.4%
Saint Louis	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Louisville	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Nebraska	1.4%	17.0%	-15.6%
Arizona	71.7%	86.9%	-15.2%
Michigan St	0.7%	14.8%	-14.1%
Illinois	3.4%	10.1%	-6.7%
Gonzaga	0.1%	2.6%	-2.5%
BYU	0.1%	2.3%	-2.2%
UConn	29.4%	31.2%	-1.8%
Duke	92.0%	93.5%	-1.5%
Texas Tech	1.7%	2.4%	-0.7%
Purdue	16.5%	17.0%	-0.5%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Iowa St	2.4	2.7	-0.3
Long Beach St	15.0	15.3	-0.3
San Francisco	13.2	13.4	-0.2
La Salle	14.6	14.8	-0.2
Louisiana	15.7	15.9	-0.2
Kennesaw St	14.2	14.3	-0.2
Florida St	11.8	11.9	-0.1
Notre Dame	12.1	12.2	-0.1
Liberty	11.5	11.6	-0.1
UTEP	14.8	14.9	-0.1

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Mississippi	12.0	11.3	0.8
San Jose St	15.9	15.6	0.3
Fresno St	13.9	13.6	0.3
Drexel	14.7	14.4	0.3
Rice	13.9	13.6	0.2
Fordham	13.5	13.2	0.2
NC A&T	15.6	15.4	0.2
Texas A&M-CC	15.5	15.3	0.2
C Michigan	15.8	15.6	0.2
Washington St	14.3	14.1	0.2

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Wisconsin	7.9	10.0	-2.1
Texas Tech	4.0	5.7	-1.6
Arkansas	4.4	5.5	-1.1
Belmont	9.6	10.4	-0.8
Purdue	2.5	3.3	-0.8
Vanderbilt	3.4	4.2	-0.8
Fordham	13.5	14.2	-0.7
Yale	10.2	10.9	-0.7
Villanova	6.9	7.6	-0.6
Liberty	11.5	12.1	-0.6

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Iowa	8.9	7.5	1.4
Georgia	9.8	8.6	1.2
Tulsa	11.1	10.0	1.1
Clemson	7.5	6.4	1.1
Auburn	9.2	8.2	1.0
Michigan St	4.6	3.7	1.0
George Mason	10.1	9.2	0.9
Texas A&M	9.3	8.5	0.8
Mississippi	12.0	11.2	0.8
NC State	7.2	6.4	0.8

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Florida	2.5	4.9	-2.4
Wisconsin	7.9	9.8	-1.9
Kansas	3.9	5.3	-1.4
Villanova	6.9	8.2	-1.2
Utah St	6.6	7.8	-1.2
Utah Tech	13.6	14.6	-1.1
Louisville	5.4	6.3	-0.9
Tennessee	5.6	6.5	-0.9
Texas St	14.5	15.4	-0.8
Arkansas	4.4	5.2	-0.8

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Georgia	9.8	7.4	2.4
Michigan St	4.6	2.8	1.8
BYU	6.4	4.6	1.8
Butler	12.2	10.4	1.8
Auburn	9.2	7.5	1.7
SMU	8.6	7.0	1.5
George Mason	10.1	8.6	1.5
Texas A&M	9.3	7.9	1.4
Nebraska	4.0	2.7	1.3
Gonzaga	5.1	3.8	1.3

NOTE: The WAC uses a KenPom-based method to seed its conference tournament. Seeding is based on a team's performance against their entire schedule, not just their conference games. Our projections do not cover this unique seeding method, and will simply seed teams based on projected conference record. Once the official bracket is set, we will use that.

Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago