Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself.

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
High Point	57.0%	47.9%	9.1%
Pittsburgh	23.8%	14.7%	9.1%
Vermont	51.5%	45.8%	5.7%
Colgate	32.9%	28.4%	4.5%
Wisconsin	86.8%	83.6%	3.3%
Creighton	61.0%	58.0%	3.0%
Oakland	17.0%	14.4%	2.6%
Tennessee	87.7%	85.2%	2.5%
Iowa St	91.1%	88.9%	2.2%
Colorado	7.4%	5.4%	2.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Missouri	55.8%	63.9%	-8.1%
Kansas St	10.2%	15.2%	-5.0%
Bucknell	7.1%	11.7%	-4.6%
Winthrop	21.7%	25.7%	-4.0%
Dayton	23.1%	26.3%	-3.2%
Maine	10.1%	13.1%	-3.0%
Alabama St	8.7%	11.6%	-2.9%
UMBC	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%
UCF	7.6%	10.1%	-2.5%
Charleston	6.6%	9.2%	-2.5%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Virginia	64.4%	39.5%	24.9%
Saint Mary's	77.8%	55.5%	22.3%
S Florida	28.3%	8.8%	19.5%
LIU	39.2%	22.9%	16.3%
G Washington	30.6%	14.5%	16.1%
Wake Forest	28.9%	14.3%	14.5%
Auburn	80.5%	67.2%	13.3%
Wisconsin	86.8%	75.2%	11.6%
N Dakota St	28.1%	16.7%	11.4%
UT Martin	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Memphis	22.5%	42.5%	-20.0%
Stonehill	8.6%	25.6%	-16.9%
Minnesota	4.0%	18.7%	-14.7%
Clemson	63.5%	77.3%	-13.8%
Dayton	23.1%	36.8%	-13.7%
Miami	18.2%	30.8%	-12.5%
Texas A&M	5.7%	18.0%	-12.3%
Mississippi St	46.0%	57.7%	-11.7%
Bradley	12.1%	22.2%	-10.2%
Kansas St	10.2%	20.0%	-9.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
NC State	94.1%	15.8%	78.3%
Virginia	64.4%	4.8%	59.6%
Vanderbilt	86.3%	34.4%	51.9%
Georgia	82.3%	31.3%	51.0%
Indiana	89.4%	42.0%	47.4%
North Carolina	91.1%	48.0%	43.1%
Washington	44.6%	3.7%	40.9%
USC	79.7%	39.1%	40.6%
Syracuse	45.4%	5.7%	39.8%
Vermont	51.5%	14.4%	37.1%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Maryland	31.2%	93.5%	-62.2%
Texas A&M	5.7%	67.1%	-61.4%
Xavier	1.0%	59.8%	-58.8%
Marquette	44.2%	86.2%	-41.9%
Pittsburgh	23.8%	63.6%	-39.8%
Lipscomb	6.8%	45.6%	-38.8%
Drake	4.9%	42.4%	-37.5%
Bryant	4.9%	40.7%	-35.7%
UCSD	17.1%	52.3%	-35.2%
VCU	48.1%	80.5%	-32.5%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
High Point	57.0%	47.9%	9.1%
Gonzaga	74.4%	67.8%	6.6%
Vermont	51.5%	45.8%	5.7%
Colgate	32.9%	28.4%	4.5%
Oakland	17.0%	14.4%	2.6%
Wagner	13.1%	11.1%	2.0%
Portland St	12.4%	10.5%	1.9%
Iowa St	20.7%	18.8%	1.8%
Tulsa	5.9%	4.3%	1.5%
VCU	27.9%	26.5%	1.4%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Bucknell	7.1%	11.7%	-4.6%
Saint Mary's	19.6%	23.9%	-4.4%
Winthrop	21.7%	25.7%	-4.0%
Maine	10.1%	13.1%	-3.0%
Alabama St	8.7%	11.6%	-2.9%
UMBC	14.2%	16.7%	-2.5%
Charleston	6.6%	9.2%	-2.5%
Siena	16.5%	18.7%	-2.2%
C Connecticut	29.2%	31.4%	-2.2%
E Washington	6.9%	8.6%	-1.7%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
S Florida	25.5%	7.7%	17.8%
LIU	39.2%	22.9%	16.3%
Duke	43.2%	30.5%	12.7%
G Washington	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%
N Dakota St	28.1%	16.7%	11.4%
UT Martin	24.0%	13.3%	10.7%
Colgate	32.9%	22.8%	10.1%
Vermont	51.5%	42.1%	9.4%
Iona	26.3%	18.5%	7.9%
Winthrop	21.7%	15.1%	6.6%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Stonehill	8.6%	25.6%	-16.9%
Memphis	17.3%	28.2%	-10.9%
Bradley	12.1%	22.1%	-10.1%
Bucknell	7.1%	15.5%	-8.5%
E Washington	6.9%	15.3%	-8.4%
Radford	3.3%	10.0%	-6.7%
N Texas	7.3%	12.8%	-5.6%
Mercer	6.8%	12.3%	-5.5%
Clemson	4.5%	10.0%	-5.5%
Dayton	9.8%	15.2%	-5.3%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Vermont	51.5%	14.4%	37.1%
Hawai'i	32.9%	1.2%	31.7%
LIU	39.2%	15.5%	23.7%
S Florida	25.5%	2.3%	23.2%
UConn	39.2%	19.2%	20.1%
Yale	69.8%	49.9%	19.9%
Youngstown St	29.7%	10.1%	19.6%
Saint Louis	23.5%	3.9%	19.6%
St Thomas	19.2%	0.0%	19.2%
Austin Peay	20.2%	1.6%	18.6%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Lipscomb	6.8%	45.6%	-38.8%
Bryant	4.9%	40.7%	-35.7%
UCSD	17.1%	52.3%	-35.2%
S Carolina St	4.2%	32.7%	-28.5%
Drake	4.9%	30.7%	-25.8%
Arkansas St	9.0%	34.6%	-25.6%
C Connecticut	29.2%	52.8%	-23.6%
Duke	43.2%	66.3%	-23.1%
Memphis	17.3%	38.9%	-21.5%
Auburn	7.3%	27.8%	-20.5%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Gonzaga	31.6%	24.2%	7.3%
Arizona	15.2%	13.6%	1.6%
Iowa St	17.6%	16.2%	1.5%
Texas Tech	5.7%	4.8%	0.9%
Wisconsin	4.5%	3.6%	0.9%
Michigan St	2.7%	1.8%	0.8%
Auburn	3.7%	2.9%	0.7%
USC	4.2%	3.5%	0.7%
Kansas	6.6%	6.0%	0.7%
Ohio St	2.1%	1.5%	0.6%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Duke	58.1%	64.1%	-6.1%
Kentucky	15.8%	19.2%	-3.4%
UConn	16.2%	18.2%	-2.1%
Purdue	36.4%	38.2%	-1.8%
Louisville	25.7%	27.4%	-1.7%
Illinois	26.6%	28.3%	-1.6%
Georgia	3.2%	4.8%	-1.5%
Houston	35.9%	37.0%	-1.0%
NC State	9.3%	10.0%	-0.8%
Missouri	0.8%	1.6%	-0.8%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Duke	58.1%	36.2%	21.9%
Gonzaga	31.6%	15.6%	15.9%
Purdue	36.4%	24.8%	11.6%
Houston	35.9%	30.7%	5.2%
NC State	9.3%	5.7%	3.5%
Arizona	15.2%	13.3%	1.9%
Wisconsin	4.5%	2.7%	1.7%
Auburn	3.7%	2.3%	1.4%
USC	4.2%	3.0%	1.2%
Virginia	1.3%	0.2%	1.0%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Illinois	26.6%	36.1%	-9.5%
Michigan	15.8%	25.0%	-9.2%
Alabama	7.5%	14.0%	-6.5%
BYU	6.9%	13.4%	-6.5%
Georgia	3.2%	9.6%	-6.4%
Kentucky	15.8%	19.5%	-3.7%
Clemson	0.9%	4.2%	-3.3%
Texas Tech	5.7%	8.7%	-3.0%
UConn	16.2%	19.1%	-3.0%
Arkansas	1.6%	4.2%	-2.7%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Purdue	36.4%	8.0%	28.4%
Louisville	25.7%	0.6%	25.1%
Illinois	26.6%	5.6%	21.0%
UConn	16.2%	2.8%	13.4%
Kentucky	15.8%	3.4%	12.4%
Michigan	15.8%	3.8%	12.0%
NC State	9.3%	0.0%	9.3%
Iowa St	17.6%	11.1%	6.6%
Vanderbilt	6.3%	0.1%	6.2%
Indiana	4.8%	0.4%	4.5%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Auburn	3.7%	43.4%	-39.7%
Florida	6.8%	36.0%	-29.2%
Alabama	7.5%	21.6%	-14.1%
Maryland	0.1%	11.7%	-11.6%
Duke	58.1%	69.6%	-11.5%
Houston	35.9%	46.2%	-10.3%
Michigan St	2.7%	11.8%	-9.2%
Tennessee	6.5%	15.7%	-9.1%
Texas Tech	5.7%	12.7%	-7.0%
UCLA	0.4%	3.6%	-3.2%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Boston College	8.4	11.0	-2.6
Colorado	7.9	9.9	-1.9
George Mason	9.1	11.1	-1.9
Utah	8.7	10.5	-1.8
Stanford	8.3	9.9	-1.6
Georgia Tech	8.8	10.4	-1.6
California	7.2	8.7	-1.5
Pacific	11.5	13.1	-1.5
St Bonaventure	10.2	11.7	-1.5
G Washington	7.7	9.1	-1.5

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Georgia	6.0	5.1	0.9
Kentucky	4.5	3.7	0.8
Missouri	7.1	6.3	0.8
Southern	15.6	15.0	0.6
Florida	5.5	5.0	0.5
Indiana	6.2	5.7	0.5
UConn	4.0	3.6	0.5
Arkansas	7.5	7.0	0.5
Vanderbilt	5.5	5.0	0.5
Tennessee	5.9	5.4	0.5

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
G Washington	7.7	10.3	-2.7
Boston College	8.4	10.4	-2.0
West Virginia	6.2	8.2	-2.0
Georgia Tech	8.8	10.7	-2.0
S Florida	9.8	11.7	-1.8
UCF	7.6	9.4	-1.8
Colorado	7.9	9.7	-1.8
Loyola Mymt	10.0	11.7	-1.7
Buffalo	13.5	15.2	-1.6
Utah	8.7	10.2	-1.5

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Portland	13.9	12.1	1.9
DePaul	11.1	9.5	1.6
Georgia	6.0	4.4	1.6
Arkansas	7.5	6.0	1.5
Clemson	6.9	5.5	1.3
Minnesota	9.7	8.5	1.2
Radford	15.2	14.1	1.1
BYU	5.7	4.7	1.0
Texas	8.1	7.1	1.0
Indiana	6.2	5.3	0.9

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
NC State	5.0	10.5	-5.5
Louisville	3.5	7.5	-4.1
Vanderbilt	5.5	8.9	-3.4
G Washington	7.7	10.8	-3.2
Miami	6.9	10.0	-3.1
Saint Louis	7.5	10.5	-3.0
Virginia	6.8	9.5	-2.7
S Florida	9.8	12.5	-2.7
Syracuse	7.6	10.1	-2.6
Virginia Tech	7.9	10.3	-2.4

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Maryland	9.0	4.6	4.4
Auburn	6.4	2.4	4.0
Xavier	10.8	7.5	3.3
New Mexico	10.5	7.3	3.2
Drake	12.6	9.7	2.9
Saint Joseph's	12.5	9.6	2.9
UCSD	12.9	10.0	2.9
Florida	5.5	2.7	2.8
Loyola Chi	12.9	10.1	2.7
Michigan St	6.9	4.2	2.7

NOTE: The WAC uses a KenPom-based method to seed its conference tournament. Seeding is based on a team's performance against their entire schedule, not just their conference games. Our projections do not cover this unique seeding method, and will simply seed teams based on projected conference record. Once the official bracket is set, we will use that.

Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago