Team & Projected Seed NCAA Advancement Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Bid S16 F4 Win
1 1
Kansas (28-3)
 100% 79% 42% 19%
1 2
Baylor (26-4)
 100% 65% 23% 6%
1 3
Gonzaga (31-2)
 100% 73% 34% 13%
1 4
Dayton (29-2)
 100% 57% 16% 3%
2 5
Florida St (26-5)
 100% 54% 14% 3%
2 6
Duke (25-6)
 100% 72% 33% 13%
2 7
Creighton (24-7)
 100% 49% 11% 2%
2 8
Oregon (24-7)
 100% 49% 11% 2%
3 9
Kentucky (25-6)
 100% 48% 10% 2%
3 10
Villanova (24-7)
 100% 48% 10% 2%
3 11
San Diego St (30-2)
 91% 43% 9% 2%
3 12
Auburn (25-6)
 100% 40% 6% 1%
4 13
Louisville (24-7)
 100% 54% 15% 3%
4 14
Seton Hall (21-9)
 100% 43% 9% 1%
4 15
Michigan St (22-9)
 100% 66% 27% 10%
4 16
Maryland (24-7)
 100% 47% 11% 2%
5 17
Virginia (23-7)
 100% 27% 3% 0%
5 18
W Virginia (21-10)
 100% 39% 9% 2%
5 19
Providence (19-12)
 100% 24% 3% 0%
5 20
Wisconsin (21-10)
 100% 32% 6% 1%
6 21
Butler (22-9)
 100% 29% 5% 1%
6 22
BYU (24-8)
 99% 30% 6% 1%
6 23
Ohio State (21-10)
 100% 39% 11% 3%
6 24
Houston (23-8)
 93% 27% 5% 1%
7 25
LSU (21-10)
 98% 22% 4% 0%
7 26
Cincinnati (20-10)
 80% 13% 2% 0%
7 27
Colorado (21-11)
 97% 18% 3% 0%
7 28
E Tenn St (30-4)
 100% 12% 1% 0%
8 29
St Marys (26-8)
 37% 5% 1% 0%
8 30
Penn State (21-10)
 88% 21% 4% 1%
8 31
Arizona (21-11)
 90% 30% 9% 2%
8 32
Florida (19-12)
 100% 24% 5% 1%
9 33
Iowa (20-11)
 100% 23% 5% 1%
9 34
Arizona St (20-11)
 89% 10% 1% 0%
9 35
Illinois (21-10)
 98% 19% 3% 0%
9 36
Oklahoma (19-12)
 100% 16% 2% 0%
10 37
Rutgers (20-11)
 84% 16% 3% 0%
10 38
Michigan (19-12)
 100% 26% 6% 1%
10 39
Marquette (18-12)
 100% 20% 4% 1%
10 40
Utah State (26-8)
 100% 17% 2% 0%
11 41
Xavier (19-13)
 98% 12% 1% 0%
11 42
Texas Tech (18-13)
 76% 18% 4% 1%
11 43
Indiana (20-12)
 84% 14% 2% 0%
11 44
Akron (24-7)
 33% 2% 0% 0%
12 45
Texas (19-12)
 95% 8% 1% 0%
12 46
Purdue (16-15)
 38% 8% 2% 0%
12 47
Oklahoma St (18-14)
 94% 9% 1% 0%
12 48
Tennessee (17-14)
 38% 4% 0% 0%
12 49
Yale (23-7)
 100% 9% 1% 0%
12 50
Vermont (26-7)
 94% 6% 0% 0%
13 51
Hofstra (26-8)
 100% 3% 0% 0%
13 52
N Mex State (25-6)
 67% 4% 0% 0%
13 53
Texas State (21-11)
 38% 1% 0% 0%
13 54
Bradley (23-11)
 100% 3% 0% 0%
14 55
North Texas (20-11)
 28% 1% 0% 0%
14 56
Ste F Austin (28-3)
 53% 1% 0% 0%
14 57
Liberty (30-4)
 100% 5% 0% 0%
14 58
UC Irvine (21-11)
 48% 2% 0% 0%
15 59
Belmont (26-7)
 100% 6% 0% 0%
15 60
N Dakota St (25-8)
 100% 2% 0% 0%
15 61
N Colorado (22-9)
 33% 1% 0% 0%
15 62
N Kentucky (23-9)
 100% 2% 0% 0%
16 63
Prairie View (19-13)
 39% 0% 0% 0%
16 64
NC Central (18-13)
 26% 0% 0% 0%
16 65
Siena (20-10)
 37% 0% 0% 0%
16 66
Rob Morris (20-14)
 100% 0% 0% 0%
16 67
Winthrop (24-10)
 100% 1% 0% 0%
16 68
Boston U (21-13)
 100% 1% 0% 0%
Miss State (20-11)
 41% 6% 1% 0%
USC (22-9)
 38% 4% 0% 0%
NC State (20-12)
 35% 5% 1% 0%
LA Tech (22-8)
 28% 2% 0% 0%
Richmond (24-7)
 27% 3% 0% 0%
GA Southern (20-13)
 25% 1% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (16-15)
 25% 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (21-9)
 24% 2% 0% 0%
Wichita St (23-8)
 24% 4% 1% 0%
NC A&T (17-15)
 24% 0% 0% 0%
Southern (17-15)
 23% 0% 0% 0%
E Washingtn (23-8)
 23% 0% 0% 0%
Rider (18-12)
 22% 0% 0% 0%
St Peters (18-12)
 22% 0% 0% 0%
TX Southern (16-16)
 21% 0% 0% 0%
AR Lit Rock (21-10)
 21% 0% 0% 0%
Abl Christian (20-11)
 21% 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (20-10)
 19% 1% 0% 0%
Arkansas (20-12)
 18% 3% 0% 0%
UCSB (21-10)
 17% 0% 0% 0%
Alabama (16-15)
 17% 2% 0% 0%
UCLA (19-12)
 17% 1% 0% 0%
Ball State (18-13)
 16% 1% 0% 0%
Jackson St (15-17)
 16% 0% 0% 0%
S Alabama (20-11)
 16% 0% 0% 0%
Montana (18-13)
 15% 0% 0% 0%
Beth-Cook (16-14)
 15% 0% 0% 0%
Memphis (21-10)
 14% 2% 0% 0%
Kent State (20-12)
 13% 0% 0% 0%
Monmouth (18-13)
 13% 0% 0% 0%
Toledo (17-15)
 13% 0% 0% 0%
Minnesota (15-16)
 12% 2% 0% 0%
Nicholls St (21-10)
 11% 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (14-15)
 11% 0% 0% 0%
Hawaii (17-13)
 10% 0% 0% 0%
Sam Hous St (18-13)
 10% 0% 0% 0%
S Utah (17-15)
 10% 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (18-14)
 9% 0% 0% 0%
N Illinois (18-13)
 8% 0% 0% 0%
Connecticut (19-12)
 7% 1% 0% 0%
Florida Intl (19-13)
 7% 0% 0% 0%
Morgan St (15-16)
 7% 0% 0% 0%
Bowling Grn (21-10)
 7% 0% 0% 0%
UC Riverside (17-15)
 7% 0% 0% 0%
VCU (18-13)
 7% 1% 0% 0%
UC Davis (14-18)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Davidson (16-14)
 6% 1% 0% 0%
Saint Louis (23-8)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Ohio (17-15)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Sac State (16-14)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (18-15)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Marshall (17-15)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
UMKC (16-14)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (15-17)
 6% 0% 0% 0%
Charlotte (16-13)
 5% 0% 0% 0%
TX-Pan Am (14-16)
 5% 0% 0% 0%
CS Bakersfld (12-19)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Quinnipiac (15-15)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Tulsa (21-10)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Syracuse (18-14)
 4% 1% 0% 0%
Lamar (17-15)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
CS Fullerton (11-20)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Montana St (16-15)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Coppin State (11-20)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame (20-12)
 4% 1% 0% 0%
Clemson (16-15)
 4% 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (11-19)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
UAB (19-13)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
Miami (OH) (13-19)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
Grd Canyon (13-17)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
Oregon St (18-13)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
Duquesne (21-9)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
Fla Atlantic (17-15)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
S Carolina (18-13)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
St Johns (17-15)
 3% 0% 0% 0%
S Methodist (19-11)
 2% 0% 0% 0%
Missouri (15-16)
 2% 0% 0% 0%
Wash State (16-16)
 2% 0% 0% 0%
Niagara (12-20)
 2% 0% 0% 0%
Lg Beach St (11-21)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Temple (14-17)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
S Florida (14-17)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
NW State (15-15)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (19-12)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
DePaul (16-16)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Central FL (16-14)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia (16-16)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
California (14-18)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Idaho State (8-22)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Kansas St (11-21)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Texas A&M (16-14)
 1% 0% 0% 0%
Geo Mason (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (14-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Salle (15-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tulane (12-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgetown (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
E Carolina (11-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fordham (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Stanford (20-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (22-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Miami (FL) (15-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Utah (16-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
N Iowa (25-6)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (4-25)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Boise State (20-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nevada (19-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Indiana St (18-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Washington (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colorado St (20-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Furman (25-7)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Harvard (21-8)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-Chi (21-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (23-9)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pacific (23-10)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Colgate (25-9)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Valparaiso (19-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Albany (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Manhattan (13-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hampton (15-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Delaware St (6-26)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
S Illinois (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
LIU (15-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (9-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Coastal Car (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Air Force (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
UNLV (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (14-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
S Car State (11-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (8-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Howard (4-29)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mt St Marys (11-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maryland ES (5-27)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wagner (8-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
New Mexico (19-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
High Point (9-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maine (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cleveland St (11-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holy Cross (3-29)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Florida A&M (12-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (22-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maryland BC (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wyoming (9-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
IPFW (14-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (14-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
McNeese St (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
James Mad (9-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Evansville (9-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Old Dominion (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Merrimack (20-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Weber State (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Central Conn (4-27)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
N Arizona (16-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fresno St (11-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
NC-Wilmgton (10-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Oakland (14-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wm & Mary (21-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
IUPUI (7-25)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Towson (19-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cal Poly (7-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Citadel (6-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Radford (21-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Denver (7-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Idaho (8-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Navy (14-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wofford (19-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Col Charlestn (17-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
American (16-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Binghamton (10-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Youngs St (18-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
New Orleans (9-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drake (20-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Longwood (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Northwestern (8-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (15-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TX A&M-CC (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Neb Omaha (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
SE Louisiana (8-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Incar Word (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mississippi (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wake Forest (13-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
N Florida (21-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Elon (13-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
California Baptist (21-10)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chattanooga (20-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
W Carolina (19-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (9-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
LA Lafayette (14-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
North Dakota (15-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
App State (18-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
N Carolina (14-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle Tenn (8-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Illinois St (10-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Campbell (15-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Northeastrn (17-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arkansas St (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
St Fran (PA) (22-10)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacksonville (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rice (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
F Dickinson (11-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sacred Hrt (20-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Georgia St (19-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
St Fran (NY) (13-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gard-Webb (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
NC-Asheville (15-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iowa State (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Oral Roberts (17-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercer (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
W Illinois (5-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Troy (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Stony Brook (20-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (7-25)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
VA Military (9-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Samford (10-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charl South (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TN State (18-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Detroit (8-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
St Josephs (6-26)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
WI-Grn Bay (17-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lafayette (19-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (18-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jksnville St (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Morehead St (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Army (15-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
SE Missouri (7-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (23-9)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (11-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
E Illinois (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bucknell (14-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TN Martin (9-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
WI-Milwkee (12-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brown (15-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (25-7)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TN Tech (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
U Penn (16-11)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alabama St (8-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dartmouth (12-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
E Kentucky (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cornell (7-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Austin Peay (21-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Columbia (6-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portland (9-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
S Mississippi (9-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (4-26)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (9-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Miss Val St (3-27)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TX-Arlington (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (11-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (8-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Kennesaw St (1-28)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Alcorn State (15-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Central Ark (10-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Loyola Mymt (11-21)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Houston Bap (4-25)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (20-13)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (10-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pepperdine (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate (13-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Buffalo (20-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Boston Col (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (22-10)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
VA Tech (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (10-22)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
North Alabama (13-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
E Michigan (16-16)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bryant (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
San Jose St (7-24)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
GA Tech (17-14)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
South Dakota (20-12)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fairfield (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-MD (15-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iona (12-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
W Michigan (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mass Lowell (13-19)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (17-15)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (12-20)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (14-18)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marist (7-23)
 0% 0% 0% 0%
Missouri St (16-17)
 0% 0% 0% 0%

NOTE: In Conference USA’s pod-based scheduling system, each team plays its final four conference games against a "standings group" of opponents with similar records. Regardless of final conference record, a team’s conference tournament seed can’t fall outside its standings group seed range. At this time, our projections are not fully accounting for this rule, which will impact the accuracy of conference tournament win odds, especially for teams near the standings group boundaries. Read more here.

NOTE: As a precautionary measure against SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, the Ivy League has canceled their conference tournament and awarded their NCAA Tournament automatic bid to Yale. We have adjusted our NCAA tournament bracketology odds to reflect this, but our Ivy League Tournament odds will still show the original values -- our prediction of what would have happened, if the tournament took place.