Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself.

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Howard	53.3%	49.2%	4.1%
UMBC	37.9%	34.7%	3.2%
LIU	71.0%	67.9%	3.2%
Boston U	6.8%	4.7%	2.2%
UMass Lowell	7.6%	5.9%	1.7%
Marshall	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%
SF Austin	25.5%	24.3%	1.1%
New Mexico	37.7%	36.6%	1.1%
Alabama St	6.5%	5.4%	1.1%
Navy	54.8%	53.8%	1.1%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Vermont	36.9%	41.0%	-4.0%
Colgate	24.4%	28.1%	-3.6%
C Connecticut	21.9%	24.8%	-2.8%
Grambling	11.5%	13.7%	-2.2%
Bethune	24.9%	26.8%	-1.9%
S Alabama	13.4%	15.2%	-1.9%
Miami	55.6%	57.4%	-1.7%
Maryland ES	5.7%	7.1%	-1.4%
NJIT	11.0%	11.9%	-1.0%
Morgan St	5.0%	5.9%	-0.9%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Miami	55.6%	22.5%	33.1%
Seton Hall	32.3%	13.9%	18.4%
Texas	72.4%	57.9%	14.5%
VCU	60.7%	46.7%	14.0%
New Mexico	37.7%	27.1%	10.6%
S Florida	37.6%	27.3%	10.3%
UMBC	37.9%	28.1%	9.8%
Howard	53.3%	45.2%	8.1%
Wisconsin	100.0%	93.0%	7.0%
Wake Forest	9.2%	3.2%	6.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Texas A&M	31.3%	56.1%	-24.8%
Creighton	6.1%	24.5%	-18.3%
Washington	15.1%	33.3%	-18.2%
Boise St	19.8%	33.6%	-13.8%
Baylor	8.7%	21.8%	-13.1%
UCF	68.7%	81.6%	-12.9%
Austin Peay	33.4%	42.6%	-9.2%
Vermont	36.9%	46.1%	-9.2%
Georgia	86.9%	94.5%	-7.6%
Troy	33.4%	40.5%	-7.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Texas	72.4%	46.8%	25.6%
Santa Clara	81.7%	58.3%	23.5%
VCU	60.7%	37.3%	23.3%
Howard	53.3%	30.6%	22.7%
Indiana	97.9%	75.9%	22.0%
Missouri	38.6%	18.6%	20.0%
Seton Hall	32.3%	12.4%	19.8%
Miami	55.6%	36.4%	19.3%
Wisconsin	100.0%	82.1%	17.9%
Navy	54.8%	37.7%	17.1%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Creighton	6.1%	63.5%	-57.4%
Washington	15.1%	38.8%	-23.7%
Texas A&M	31.3%	52.0%	-20.7%
New Mexico	37.7%	54.2%	-16.5%
LSU	0.8%	17.0%	-16.2%
Virginia Tech	28.0%	44.2%	-16.1%
American	7.4%	22.2%	-14.8%
Butler	0.8%	15.0%	-14.2%
Vermont	36.9%	51.0%	-14.1%
Wake Forest	9.2%	22.5%	-13.3%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Howard	53.3%	49.2%	4.1%
UMBC	37.9%	34.7%	3.2%
LIU	71.0%	67.9%	3.2%
Duke	53.2%	50.7%	2.5%
Boston U	6.8%	4.7%	2.2%
UMass Lowell	7.6%	5.9%	1.7%
Marshall	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%
SF Austin	25.5%	24.3%	1.1%
Alabama St	6.5%	5.4%	1.1%
Navy	54.8%	53.8%	1.1%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Vermont	36.9%	41.0%	-4.0%
Colgate	24.4%	28.1%	-3.6%
C Connecticut	21.9%	24.8%	-2.8%
Grambling	11.5%	13.7%	-2.2%
Bethune	24.9%	26.8%	-1.9%
S Alabama	13.4%	15.2%	-1.9%
Maryland ES	5.7%	7.1%	-1.4%
NJIT	11.0%	11.9%	-1.0%
Morgan St	5.0%	5.9%	-0.9%
McNeese	65.0%	65.9%	-0.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
UMBC	37.9%	28.1%	9.8%
S Florida	36.4%	27.0%	9.5%
Howard	53.3%	45.2%	8.1%
Robert Morris	14.1%	8.2%	5.9%
S Alabama	13.4%	7.9%	5.4%
Lipscomb	20.8%	16.1%	4.6%
Cornell	23.5%	19.1%	4.4%
Samford	12.2%	8.0%	4.2%
Merrimack	19.7%	15.7%	3.9%
UT Martin	31.3%	27.7%	3.6%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Austin Peay	33.4%	42.6%	-9.2%
Vermont	36.9%	46.1%	-9.2%
Troy	33.4%	40.5%	-7.0%
Oakland	27.7%	34.5%	-6.7%
Marist	16.7%	22.6%	-5.9%
Colgate	24.4%	30.3%	-5.8%
Tulsa	28.5%	33.8%	-5.3%
NC Central	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%
E Tennessee St	33.1%	36.8%	-3.7%
Hawai'i	35.5%	38.9%	-3.4%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Howard	53.3%	30.6%	22.7%
Navy	54.8%	37.7%	17.1%
App State	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%
UMBC	37.9%	25.0%	13.0%
Florida	32.8%	20.6%	12.2%
C Arkansas	17.9%	8.2%	9.8%
Robert Morris	14.1%	4.6%	9.4%
NJIT	11.0%	1.7%	9.2%
Merrimack	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%
S Florida	36.4%	27.6%	8.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
American	7.4%	22.2%	-14.8%
Vermont	36.9%	51.0%	-14.1%
Troy	33.4%	45.9%	-12.5%
Maryland ES	5.7%	17.4%	-11.7%
Lipscomb	20.8%	32.1%	-11.4%
Florida Atlantic	3.1%	14.1%	-11.0%
UT Arlington	9.1%	18.7%	-9.6%
Tennessee St	13.6%	23.0%	-9.4%
Columbia	2.4%	11.2%	-8.8%
UCSD	10.3%	18.5%	-8.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Iowa St	19.7%	14.7%	5.0%
Duke	91.7%	89.0%	2.8%
UConn	29.0%	28.3%	0.7%
Purdue	16.5%	16.1%	0.4%
Arizona	72.3%	72.0%	0.3%
Illinois	3.4%	3.2%	0.2%
Florida	14.6%	14.4%	0.2%
Texas Tech	1.7%	1.5%	0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Houston	43.5%	53.5%	-9.9%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Purdue	16.5%	6.3%	10.2%
Florida	14.6%	6.7%	8.0%
Duke	91.7%	84.3%	7.5%
Michigan	93.5%	90.5%	3.0%
Vanderbilt	4.9%	2.1%	2.8%
UConn	29.0%	27.4%	1.7%
Texas Tech	1.7%	0.2%	1.5%
Arkansas	1.2%	0.3%	0.9%
Virginia	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%
St John's	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Arizona	72.3%	85.2%	-12.9%
Illinois	3.4%	9.7%	-6.3%
Iowa St	19.7%	25.8%	-6.1%
Houston	43.5%	46.9%	-3.4%
Kansas	2.5%	5.1%	-2.5%
Nebraska	1.4%	3.8%	-2.5%
Michigan St	0.7%	2.9%	-2.2%
North Carolina	0.1%	0.4%	-0.3%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Houston	43.5%	22.3%	21.3%
Michigan	93.5%	78.6%	14.8%
Florida	14.6%	0.9%	13.7%
Iowa St	19.7%	12.8%	6.9%
Vanderbilt	4.9%	3.2%	1.6%
Kansas	2.5%	1.1%	1.4%
Arkansas	1.2%	0.7%	0.5%
St John's	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%
Saint Louis	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
Louisville	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Nebraska	1.4%	17.0%	-15.6%
Arizona	72.3%	86.9%	-14.6%
Michigan St	0.7%	14.8%	-14.1%
Illinois	3.4%	10.1%	-6.7%
Gonzaga	0.1%	2.6%	-2.5%
BYU	0.1%	2.3%	-2.2%
UConn	29.0%	31.2%	-2.1%
Duke	91.7%	93.5%	-1.7%
Texas Tech	1.7%	2.4%	-0.7%
Purdue	16.5%	17.0%	-0.5%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Ball St	15.3	16.0	-0.7
La Salle	14.4	14.8	-0.4
Iowa St	2.4	2.7	-0.3
Northwestern	12.2	12.4	-0.2
Notre Dame	12.0	12.2	-0.2
Pacific	13.7	13.8	-0.2
Princeton	14.2	14.4	-0.1
Kennesaw St	14.2	14.3	-0.1
Liberty	11.5	11.6	-0.1
Florida St	11.8	11.9	-0.1

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team	Now	Yesterday	Change
Kansas St	13.7	12.9	0.9
C Michigan	16.0	15.6	0.4
Mississippi	11.6	11.3	0.3
Loyola Mymt	13.9	13.6	0.2
NC A&T	15.6	15.4	0.2
Drexel	14.7	14.4	0.2
Fordham	13.5	13.2	0.2
Texas A&M-CC	15.5	15.3	0.2
Wyoming	13.6	13.4	0.2
Houston	1.8	1.6	0.2

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Wisconsin	7.9	10.0	-2.1
Texas Tech	4.0	5.7	-1.6
Arkansas	4.4	5.5	-1.1
Belmont	9.6	10.4	-0.9
Purdue	2.5	3.3	-0.8
Vanderbilt	3.4	4.2	-0.8
Fordham	13.5	14.2	-0.8
Yale	10.2	10.9	-0.7
Villanova	6.9	7.6	-0.7
Delaware	14.8	15.5	-0.6

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team	Now	1 Week Ago	Change
Kansas St	13.7	12.0	1.8
Iowa	9.0	7.5	1.4
Georgia	9.8	8.6	1.2
Clemson	7.5	6.4	1.1
Tulsa	11.1	10.0	1.1
Auburn	9.2	8.2	1.0
Michigan St	4.6	3.7	1.0
George Mason	10.2	9.2	0.9
Texas A&M	9.3	8.5	0.8
NC State	7.2	6.4	0.8

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Florida	2.5	4.9	-2.4
Wisconsin	7.9	9.8	-1.9
Kansas	3.9	5.3	-1.4
Villanova	6.9	8.2	-1.2
Utah St	6.6	7.8	-1.2
Utah Tech	13.6	14.6	-1.0
Louisville	5.4	6.3	-1.0
Tennessee	5.6	6.5	-0.9
Texas St	14.5	15.4	-0.9
Arkansas	4.4	5.2	-0.8

Projected Avg. Seed:
Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team	Now	3 Weeks Ago	Change
Georgia	9.8	7.4	2.4
Kansas St	13.7	11.5	2.3
Michigan St	4.6	2.8	1.8
BYU	6.4	4.6	1.8
Butler	12.2	10.4	1.8
Auburn	9.2	7.5	1.7
SMU	8.6	7.0	1.5
George Mason	10.2	8.6	1.5
Texas A&M	9.3	7.9	1.4
Nebraska	4.0	2.7	1.3

NOTE: The WAC uses a KenPom-based method to seed its conference tournament. Seeding is based on a team's performance against their entire schedule, not just their conference games. Our projections do not cover this unique seeding method, and will simply seed teams based on projected conference record. Once the official bracket is set, we will use that.

Basketball Bracketology Trends 2026

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Odds To Get A 1 Seed:Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago