This section is showing information that is up to date as of the end of the 2025-26 NCAA Basketball season.
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North Carolina Tar Heels NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection
Team Menu: North Carolina Tar Heels
Make Tournament100.0% |
Automatic Bid0.0% |
At Large Bid100.0% |
Most Likely Seed#5 (36.3%) |
Final Four2.6% |
NCAA Champs0.2% |
Projected NCAA Tournament Seed
NCAA Tournament Chances
Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
| Total Wins | NCAA Bid% |
|---|---|
| 25 | 100.0% |
| 24 | 100.0% |
| OVERALL | 100.0% |
NOTE: Bid% above comes from season simulations. Some possible win totals are ommitted due to small sample size.
NCAA Tournament Win Odds By Seed
| Seed | Probability | Win Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0% | - |
| 2 | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 19.0% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 36.3% | 0.2% |
| 6 | 26.1% | 0.2% |
| 7 | 7.8% | 0.1% |
| 8 | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 10 | 0.2% | - |
| 11 | 0.1% | - |
| 12 | 0.0% | - |
| 13 | 0.0% | - |
| 14 | 0.0% | - |
| 15 | 0.0% | - |
| 16 | 0.0% | - |
| OVERALL | 0.2% |
*The above table shows how a team's chance of winning the conference tournament changes based upon the seed it gets. A blank value in the Win Odds column doesn't mean a team has no chance to win with that seed; it simply means that the sample size of our simulation was too small to give a reliable estimate.