November 5, 2018 - by David Hess
Our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings were posted to the site on this weekend. Here’s a brief discussion of those rankings, as well as the full rankings and ratings for all 353 teams.
Like last season, a case can be made for a few different teams:
For our preseason projections, we rate the first four teams listed above as our top four teams. (Nevada is #7 and Tennessee is #8.) But there’s only a 0.9-point gap between #1 Duke and #4 Virginia — meaning we’d favor Duke over Virginia on a neutral court by less than a point. It’s close to a 4-way toss up at the top.
We’re getting a little déjà vu with the Blue Devils. Last fall, Duke was our preseason #1 despite returning less than 20% of its production. That was mostly due to a phenomenal recruiting class, which at the time was the second-rated class in our database.
Well, this season Duke returns almost exactly the same percent of its production as last season (19% this year vs 18% last year), and has an even better recruiting class — the best one we’ve ever seen. Duke’s class includes the #1, #2, #4, and #13 ranked recruits according to the final RSCI consensus rankings.
Some of you may have seen preseason highlights of Duke’s incoming freshman Zion Williamson making highlight reel dunks and showing off great handles and a smooth jumper for a big man. He’s sparking articles with titles like There Has Never Been A Basketball Player Like Duke’s Zion Williamson. Aaaaand … he’s only the Blue Devils’ third-highest-rated recruit.
Let’s refresh the data we showed last season, highlighting the results of the other top recruiting classes in our database. Again, while not without hiccups, the overall performance has been very good. (If you are comparing this data to last season, please note that we made slight updates to our recruit ranking point-value scale, so the order of a couple teams has shifted.)
#1: 2018-19 Duke … ???
#2: 2013-14 Kentucky … only an 8 seed, but lost in the title game
#3: 2011-12 Kentucky … 38-2, national champs
#4: 2017-18 Duke … #2 seed, lost in overtime in the regional final to #1 seed Kansas
#5: 2013-14 Kansas … upset by Stanford in the second round … but they were missing Joel Embiid to injury, and obviously wouldn’t have been the #4 class without him
#6: 2014-15 Duke … 35-4, national champs
#7: 2016-17 Duke … upset in second round … 3 of the 4 main freshman missed several games, disappointing season overall, but still a #2 seed
#8: 2006-07 Ohio State … 35-4, lost in title game to Florida, which was one of the greatest teams in recent history
#9: 2005-06 Duke … 32-4, #1 seed, upset in Sweet 6
#10: 2009-10 Kentucky … 35-2, #1 seed, lost in Elite 8
If Duke had actually returned a core of solid rotation players from last season, and added this class, they’d be the clear title favorite. As it stands, they’re still our #1, but by just a fraction of a point.
Transfers are becoming more common every year, and it seems like this could be their breakout season. Half of our preseason top ten teams are projected to benefit heavily from incoming transfers this season.
When we make our projections, we come up with a point value for each transfer. In the seven seasons since we started calculating transfer values for preseason projections, we’ve projected six transfers to be worth at least 4 points. Three of them are playing for teams in the top 10 of our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings:
4.4 pts: Joe Cremo (to 2018-19 Villanova, from Albany)
4.4 pts: Arsalan Kazemi (to 2013-14 Oregon, from Rice)
4.4 pts: Damion Lee (to 2015-16 Louisville, from Drexel)
4.4 pts: Trey Porter (to 2018-19 Nevada, from James Madison)
4.2 pts: Dedric Lawson (to 2018-19 Kansas, from Memphis)
4.1 pts: Stanton Kidd (to 2014-15 Colorado State, from NC Central)
If we expand the window to look at transfers projected to be worth 3 or more points, there are 27 players over the last seven years. Twelve (12) of them are joining teams this season. That includes two more players helping teams in our 2018 preseason top ten:
3.8 pts: Brandon Clarke (to 2018-19 Gonzaga, from San Jose State)
3.2 pts: Reid Travis (to 2018-19 Kentucky, from Stanford)
Altogether, that means 5 of our 27 highest-rated transfers from the last seven years — nearly 20% of the biggest impact transfers in recent seasons — are joining teams in this season’s top 10. If the cards fall just right, we could see a Final Four where every team starts a major-impact transfer.
To create our preseason rankings, we first establish a baseline prediction for a team, given its power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of its recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season. The result is our 2018 college basketball preseason rankings. For a more complete description, check out our blog post from five years ago.
As always, we’ve refit the model during the offseason, in order to take into account another year of data.
The resulting ratings drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)
Below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, ESPN’s BPI, the AP poll, and the ESPN Coaches poll. And at the end of the post you’ll see our full rankings and ratings for all 353 Division I teams.
Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:
This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every morning throughout the season.
Before we get to the 2018 college basketball preseason rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy and Dan Hanner have compared our preseason ratings and/or projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. Our finish has been consistently good, though also consistently a bit behind Dan Hanner’s bottom-up, player-based projections. (Links below go to the comparison blog posts from Ken and Dan.)
Taking a few years of data into account, we feel we probably have the second best preseason ratings, behind Dan Hanner’s player lineup based projections, but ahead of Ken Pomeroy, ESPN, and human rankings.
We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems. We expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project 353 teams.
[Side note: Unfortunately, Dan Hanner has decided to retire from the preseason ratings game. In past seasons you could enjoy his preseason rankings and player projections at Sports Illustrated, but that is no longer the case.]
Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:
The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system. It also shows the average rank, and a column indicating how far TR is from the consensus. (Positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse.) For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 55. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.
Team | TR | KP | BT | BPI | AP | Coaches | AVG | TR Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.7 |
Virginia | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3.7 | -0.3 |
Duke | 1 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
N Carolina | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
Kentucky | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Gonzaga | 9 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | -3.5 |
Villanova | 6 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7.8 | 1.8 |
Tennessee | 8 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
Nevada | 7 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 8.8 | 1.8 |
Michigan St | 10 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 11.2 | 1.2 |
W Virginia | 11 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11.2 | 0.2 |
Syracuse | 12 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 12.2 | 0.2 |
Auburn | 15 | 17 | 14 | 20 | 11 | 12 | 14.8 | -0.2 |
Kansas St | 20 | 12 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 15.0 | -5.0 |
Florida St | 18 | 15 | 22 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
Florida | 17 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 28 | 20.3 | 3.3 |
Clemson | 16 | 14 | 32 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 20.8 | 4.8 |
VA Tech | 31 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 20.8 | -10.2 |
Miss State | 24 | 23 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 19 | 21.5 | -2.5 |
Oregon | 23 | 27 | 11 | 39 | 14 | 16 | 21.7 | -1.3 |
Michigan | 13 | 24 | 20 | 42 | 19 | 18 | 22.7 | 9.7 |
Wisconsin | 21 | 20 | 24 | 8 | 32 | 42 | 24.5 | 3.5 |
Marquette | 25 | 29 | 29 | 10 | 27 | 30 | 25.0 | 0.0 |
Purdue | 14 | 18 | 42 | 36 | 24 | 22 | 26.0 | 12.0 |
Miami (FL) | 19 | 21 | 10 | 34 | 40 | 47 | 28.5 | 9.5 |
TX Christian | 41 | 34 | 31 | 43 | 20 | 21 | 31.7 | -9.3 |
Texas Tech | 22 | 26 | 27 | 35 | 44 | 55 | 34.8 | 12.8 |
Texas | 39 | 16 | 35 | 30 | 45 | 44 | 34.8 | -4.2 |
Alabama | 51 | 51 | 23 | 26 | 35 | 33 | 36.5 | -14.5 |
Nebraska | 35 | 38 | 40 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 37.2 | 2.2 |
Iowa State | 26 | 25 | 33 | 33 | 55 | 55 | 37.8 | 11.8 |
Iowa | 28 | 35 | 38 | 25 | 55 | 55 | 39.3 | 11.3 |
Houston | 33 | 45 | 48 | 22 | 55 | 55 | 43.0 | 10.0 |
Arizona St | 36 | 53 | 25 | 48 | 46 | 55 | 43.8 | 7.8 |
Baylor | 38 | 40 | 77 | 12 | 55 | 46 | 44.7 | 6.7 |
Washington | 54 | 46 | 53 | 67 | 25 | 24 | 44.8 | -9.2 |
Northwestern | 59 | 57 | 45 | 24 | 55 | 55 | 49.2 | -9.8 |
LSU | 61 | 50 | 74 | 65 | 23 | 26 | 49.8 | -11.2 |
Seton Hall | 56 | 54 | 19 | 68 | 55 | 55 | 51.2 | -4.8 |
UCLA | 48 | 47 | 83 | 97 | 21 | 20 | 52.7 | 4.7 |
W Kentucky | 52 | 79 | 59 | 23 | 55 | 55 | 53.8 | 1.8 |
A few points stick out:
Below are our full 2018 college basketball preseason rankings.
Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.
Let’s look near the top of the rankings this season for an example. #10 Michigan State and #11 West Virginia are separated by 1.5 ratings points. That’s slightly larger than the difference between Michigan State and #5 Kentucky.
In other words, #10 Michigan State is closer to being #5 than they are #11.
Rank Team Rating
1 Duke 19.5
2 Kansas 19.2
3 N Carolina 18.6
4 Virginia 18.6
5 Kentucky 17.5
6 Villanova 17.4
7 Nevada 17.0
8 Tennessee 16.5
9 Gonzaga 16.4
10 Michigan St 16.1
11 W Virginia 14.6
12 Syracuse 14.6
13 Michigan 14.4
14 Purdue 14.3
15 Auburn 14.2
16 Clemson 14.2
17 Florida 14.2
18 Florida St 14.1
19 Miami (FL) 14.1
20 Kansas St 14.0
21 Wisconsin 14.0
22 Texas Tech 13.1
23 Oregon 12.8
24 Miss State 12.7
25 Marquette 12.6
26 Iowa State 12.3
27 Indiana 12.3
28 Iowa 12.2
29 Cincinnati 12.2
30 Butler 12.0
31 VA Tech 12.0
32 St Johns 11.9
33 Houston 11.8
34 Creighton 11.8
35 Nebraska 11.8
36 Arizona St 11.7
37 Ohio State 11.6
38 Baylor 11.3
39 Texas 11.3
40 Maryland 11.2
41 TX Christian 11.0
42 San Diego St 10.9
43 NC State 10.8
44 Texas A&M 10.8
45 Xavier 10.7
46 Oklahoma 10.7
47 Notre Dame 10.5
48 UCLA 10.4
49 St Marys 9.7
50 Penn State 9.4
51 Alabama 9.4
52 W Kentucky 9.3
53 Georgetown 9.2
54 Washington 9.2
55 Louisville 9.2
56 Seton Hall 9.2
57 Providence 9.2
58 S Methodist 9.2
59 Northwestern 9.0
60 Northeastrn 9.0
61 LSU 9.0
62 BYU 8.5
63 S Carolina 8.4
64 Central FL 8.4
65 Wichita St 8.4
66 Buffalo 8.3
67 Davidson 8.2
68 USC 8.0
69 Arizona 7.9
70 Georgia 7.8
71 Montana 7.7
72 Missouri 7.7
73 Loyola-Chi 7.3
74 Temple 7.3
75 Fresno St 7.1
76 Illinois St 6.9
77 Minnesota 6.9
78 S Dakota St 6.9
79 Vanderbilt 6.8
80 Oklahoma St 6.6
81 LA Lafayette 6.5
82 Boston Col 6.4
83 Richmond 6.3
84 Oregon St 6.3
85 Utah 6.2
86 DePaul 6.2
87 Illinois 6.2
88 New Mexico 6.0
89 Harvard 6.0
90 UC Irvine 5.9
91 Arkansas 5.9
92 Connecticut 5.9
93 Colorado 5.8
94 Valparaiso 5.7
95 Dayton 5.7
96 Georgia St 5.7
97 Boise State 5.7
98 VCU 5.6
99 Old Dominion 5.5
100 Ste F Austin 5.5
101 U Penn 5.5
102 Middle Tenn 5.4
103 Rhode Island 5.3
104 Rider 4.9
105 N Mex State 4.8
106 Mississippi 4.7
107 Saint Louis 4.6
108 St Bonavent 4.5
109 Wofford 4.4
110 South Dakota 4.3
111 Tulsa 4.3
112 Wake Forest 4.2
113 Memphis 4.0
114 NC-Grnsboro 4.0
115 Marshall 3.8
116 N Iowa 3.6
117 UNLV 3.3
118 Toledo 3.3
119 Stanford 3.2
120 Yale 3.1
121 Ball State 3.0
122 Belmont 3.0
123 S Illinois 2.9
124 GA Tech 2.9
125 San Diego 2.7
126 Iona 2.6
127 Grand Canyon 2.6
128 Wm & Mary 2.5
129 Furman 2.4
130 Lipscomb 2.3
131 Col Charlestn 2.3
132 S Alabama 2.2
133 St Josephs 2.2
134 LA Tech 2.2
135 Rutgers 2.1
136 Hofstra 2.1
137 UC Davis 2.1
138 Pittsburgh 2.1
139 E Michigan 2.0
140 Murray St 2.0
141 Geo Mason 1.9
142 Vermont 1.8
143 UAB 1.6
144 Utah Val St 1.4
145 CS Fullerton 1.4
146 Canisius 1.3
147 Wright State 1.2
148 Bradley 1.2
149 San Fransco 1.2
150 Princeton 1.1
151 Missouri St 0.9
152 Northern Kentucky 0.9
153 North Texas 0.8
154 UCSB 0.8
155 Weber State 0.7
156 Monmouth 0.7
157 Utah State 0.6
158 Kent State 0.6
159 Bucknell 0.4
160 NC-Wilmgton 0.3
161 California 0.2
162 IPFW 0.1
163 GA Southern 0.1
164 E Tenn St 0.1
165 U Mass 0.0
166 Indiana St -0.1
167 Radford -0.1
168 E Washingtn -0.2
169 Fla Gulf Cst -0.4
170 Ohio -0.5
171 Evansville -0.5
172 Jksnville St -0.5
173 Pacific -0.7
174 Winthrop -0.8
175 App State -0.9
176 Loyola Mymt -0.9
177 Wyoming -1.0
178 Geo Wshgtn -1.0
179 N Colorado -1.0
180 James Mad -1.1
181 La Salle -1.1
182 North Dakota State -1.2
183 Lg Beach St -1.3
184 Duquesne -1.4
185 St Peters -1.4
186 Towson -1.5
187 Hawaii -1.5
188 TX-San Ant -1.5
189 Akron -1.5
190 Central Mich -1.5
191 Liberty -1.8
192 Lehigh -1.8
193 Drake -1.9
194 Austin Peay -1.9
195 St Fran (PA) -2.0
196 TX El Paso -2.1
197 Tulane -2.1
198 Troy -2.1
199 Colorado St -2.2
200 Wash State -2.2
201 LA Monroe -2.2
202 Delaware -2.3
203 Stony Brook -2.4
204 S Mississippi -2.5
205 N Illinois -2.6
206 CS Bakersfld -2.7
207 Denver -2.9
208 Morehead St -2.9
209 Brown -3.0
210 Miami (OH) -3.1
211 Columbia -3.1
212 IL-Chicago -3.2
213 Army -3.3
214 Texas State -3.3
215 Elon -3.3
216 Florida Intl -3.4
217 Hartford -3.4
218 Colgate -3.4
219 Lamar -3.5
220 Bowling Grn -3.6
221 New Jersey Tech -3.7
222 TX-Arlington -3.9
223 Nicholls St -3.9
224 Portland St -3.9
225 W Michigan -4.0
226 Oakland -4.1
227 WI-Grn Bay -4.1
228 N Florida -4.2
229 Wagner -4.3
230 Pepperdine -4.4
231 Coastal Car -4.5
232 Nebraska Omaha -4.5
233 High Point -4.5
234 Holy Cross -4.6
235 Mercer -4.6
236 Albany -4.6
237 Idaho State -4.7
238 Rob Morris -4.7
239 Maryland BC -4.8
240 Boston U -4.8
241 IUPUI -4.9
242 Air Force -5.0
243 TN State -5.0
244 Santa Clara -5.0
245 Fairfield -5.0
246 California Baptist -5.1
247 Hampton -5.1
248 Sam Hous St -5.1
249 Idaho -5.2
250 Niagara -5.2
251 TX Southern -5.3
252 LIU-Brooklyn -5.3
253 Quinnipiac -5.4
254 Seattle -5.4
255 WI-Milwkee -5.4
256 TN Martin -5.4
257 Fordham -5.6
258 Portland -5.6
259 Cornell -5.7
260 Campbell -5.7
261 S Florida -5.8
262 AR Lit Rock -5.8
263 Norfolk St -5.9
264 Abilene Christian -5.9
265 Navy -6.0
266 UC Riverside -6.0
267 Siena -6.1
268 Gard-Webb -6.3
269 SE Louisiana -6.3
270 Charl South -6.3
271 NC-Asheville -6.4
272 Sac State -6.4
273 UMKC -6.5
274 TN Tech -6.5
275 Fla Atlantic -6.5
276 American -6.6
277 Cleveland St -6.6
278 Dartmouth -6.7
279 North Dakota -6.9
280 Cal Poly -6.9
281 F Dickinson -6.9
282 Marist -7.0
283 Oral Roberts -7.0
284 McNeese St -7.1
285 Montana St -7.1
286 E Kentucky -7.1
287 Manhattan -7.2
288 Charlotte -7.3
289 NC Central -7.3
290 Arkansas St -7.3
291 Lafayette -7.3
292 TX A&M-CC -7.4
293 New Orleans -7.5
294 SE Missouri -7.6
295 Jacksonville -7.8
296 Central Ark -7.9
297 Drexel -8.0
298 Samford -8.1
299 Howard -8.2
300 E Carolina -8.2
301 Chattanooga -8.2
302 N Hampshire -8.2
303 Binghamton -8.2
304 Grambling St -8.5
305 W Carolina -8.5
306 Citadel -8.5
307 S Utah -8.5
308 Prairie View -8.8
309 W Illinois -8.9
310 E Illinois -8.9
311 Beth-Cook -9.0
312 Loyola-MD -9.2
313 Massachusetts Lowell -9.3
314 Houston Bap -9.6
315 Sacred Hrt -9.7
316 St Fran (NY) -9.8
317 Rice -9.8
318 SIU Edward -9.9
319 TX-Pan Am -10.0
320 VA Military -10.1
321 Youngs St -10.3
322 Central Conn -10.4
323 Bryant -10.6
324 Southern -10.7
325 N Arizona -10.7
326 Detroit -10.8
327 San Jose St -10.9
328 Alabama St -11.1
329 Kennesaw St -11.5
330 Presbyterian -11.5
331 Jackson St -11.7
332 Morgan St -12.1
333 Maine -12.2
334 South Carolina Upstate -12.3
335 Ark Pine Bl -12.3
336 Mt St Marys -12.5
337 Cal St Nrdge -12.9
338 Incarnate Word -13.2
339 NW State -13.3
340 Stetson -13.4
341 Maryland ES -13.6
342 North Alabama -13.7
343 Longwood -13.8
344 S Car State -14.2
345 NC A&T -14.6
346 Chicago St -14.8
347 Miss Val St -15.1
348 Coppin State -15.6
349 Alcorn State -15.6
350 Savannah St -15.6
351 Alab A&M -17.1
352 Delaware St -17.4
353 Florida A&M -17.6
As a final reminder, be sure to check out the season projections we create using these 2018 college basketball preseason rankings. There’s a ton to see:
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