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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (4-2) 14-15 3% 3% 0%
South Dakota (0-5) 12-19 7% 7% 0%
16 68 Bryant (1-1) 15-14 21% 21% 0%
North Dakota (1-2) 14-16 4% 4% 0%
CS Bakersfld (1-4) 14-16 9% 9% 0%
Incarnate Word (4-0) 19-9 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (2-4) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (1-4) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (2-2) 15-13 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (2-2) 17-13 20% 19% 0%
Neb Omaha (2-2) 15-14 10% 10% 0%
Grand Canyon (2-3) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate (3-1) 21-10 34% 34% 0%
N Dakota St (3-2) 14-14 8% 8% 0%
15 59 Fla Gulf Cst (5-0) 21-9 51% 49% 0%
Longwood (2-3) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (1-3) 13-15 12% 12% 0%
Houston Bap (1-2) 11-17 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (2-1) 14-14 8% 8% 0%
N Florida (2-3) 16-15 13% 13% 0%
Central Ark (0-5) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (1-3) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
15 60 NC Central (1-3) 21-8 56% 56% 0%
Abilene Christian (2-2) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (2-2) 16-13 5% 5% 0%
Kennesaw St (1-4) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (2-2) 12-19 1% 0% 0%
Alabama (4-1) 19-12 40% 1% 0%
LSU (3-2) 16-15 9% 0% 0%
Miss State (4-0) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
3 10 Arkansas (4-0) 26-5 93% 10% 11%
Mississippi (3-1) 17-13 19% 1% 0%
S Carolina (2-3) 14-16 6% 0% 0%
4 16 Florida (2-1) 21-8 83% 9% 3%
Georgia (3-1) 15-14 16% 1% 0%
Tennessee (1-1) 14-14 9% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (4-0) 15-15 3% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (6-0) 29-2 100% 75% 77%
16 63 Ste F Austin (1-3) 21-9 48% 48% 0%
Texas State (2-1) 13-16 1% 1% 0%
McNeese St (2-1) 11-17 1% 1% 0%
TX-Arlington (3-2) 17-13 6% 6% 0%
SE Louisiana (0-4) 11-20 3% 3% 0%
NW State (2-3) 14-15 3% 3% 0%
Sam Hous St (3-2) 23-8 37% 37% 0%
Nicholls St (0-3) 9-19 1% 1% 0%
Lamar (2-3) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (2-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (2-1) 20-9 22% 17% 0%
TX-Pan Am (3-0) 8-22 1% 1% 0%
TX A&M-CC (2-2) 15-14 6% 6% 0%
Savannah St (2-3) 11-19 2% 2% 0%
IPFW (3-1) 16-12 12% 12% 0%
Columbia (3-1) 18-10 15% 13% 0%
Cornell (2-4) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (1-3) 13-15 3% 3% 0%
Yale (4-1) 21-10 30% 25% 0%
Dartmouth (0-2) 12-16 2% 2% 0%
12 48 Harvard (3-1) 20-8 58% 54% 0%
U Penn (0-4) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
Brown (1-4) 14-16 2% 2% 0%
Loyola-Chi (3-1) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (3-1) 15-15 4% 4% 0%
Youngs St (3-3) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
9 35 Butler (3-0) 19-10 57% 12% 1%
WI-Milwkee (2-3) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (2-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
11 43 WI-Grn Bay (3-1) 22-7 66% 56% 0%
Cleveland St (2-2) 16-15 14% 13% 0%
Detroit (4-2) 18-13 12% 11% 0%
Radford (2-2) 18-12 9% 8% 0%
Charl South (3-1) 16-11 12% 12% 0%
Winthrop (2-2) 17-12 6% 6% 0%
15 61 Coastal Car (3-1) 22-7 50% 49% 0%
VA Military (2-2) 15-13 12% 12% 0%
Liberty (2-3) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
High Point (4-1) 17-13 6% 6% 0%
NC-Asheville (2-2) 16-13 8% 8% 0%
Hawaii (5-2) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Fresno St (1-4) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Nevada (2-3) 10-19 1% 0% 0%
4 15 S Methodist (2-3) 22-8 87% 31% 2%
15 62 LA Tech (4-1) 24-7 37% 25% 0%
Rice (1-2) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (2-0) 20-7 36% 20% 0%
Tulsa (3-1) 19-11 36% 8% 0%
Boise State (4-1) 20-10 26% 8% 0%
San Jose St (1-3) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
11 44 Georgetown (3-0) 17-10 49% 8% 0%
11 42 Providence (5-0) 20-11 56% 8% 0%
St Johns (3-0) 15-15 9% 2% 0%
Rutgers (2-2) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (3-2) 15-17 6% 0% 0%
5 18 Miami (FL) (6-0) 23-8 88% 3% 2%
8 32 Connecticut (3-1) 19-11 70% 32% 0%
VA Tech (2-2) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
12 47 Notre Dame (4-1) 22-9 41% 2% 0%
3 11 Villanova (5-0) 26-5 94% 35% 11%
7 25 W Virginia (5-0) 21-10 70% 7% 1%
10 37 Syracuse (4-1) 21-10 59% 2% 0%
Boston Col (2-3) 12-18 1% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (4-0) 17-13 23% 3% 0%
Pepperdine (3-1) 15-14 1% 1% 0%
Santa Clara (2-2) 11-17 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (3-1) 18-12 12% 2% 0%
2 5 Gonzaga (4-0) 28-2 100% 77% 26%
Loyola Mymt (2-2) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (3-1) 14-14 9% 2% 0%
St Marys (4-0) 19-10 24% 3% 0%
Portland (3-0) 18-12 6% 1% 0%
Austin Peay (1-4) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
14 55 E Kentucky (3-0) 23-6 51% 44% 0%
TN Tech (3-1) 16-14 3% 3% 0%
TN Martin (3-1) 18-11 6% 6% 0%
E Illinois (1-4) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (2-2) 21-9 24% 22% 0%
SE Missouri (2-3) 14-15 3% 3% 0%
Morehead St (2-4) 16-15 5% 4% 0%
Jksnville St (2-3) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
TN State (2-3) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Samford (2-3) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (3-1) 14-14 24% 1% 0%
10 40 Baylor (4-0) 19-11 56% 6% 1%
Missouri (2-3) 11-20 1% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (3-1) 13-17 1% 0% 0%
5 19 Kansas (2-1) 20-9 89% 17% 3%
9 33 Texas A&M (3-1) 20-10 54% 3% 1%
Colorado (3-1) 18-10 34% 5% 0%
6 24 Iowa State (3-1) 21-9 74% 13% 4%
13 52 Kansas St (3-2) 18-13 42% 5% 0%
2 6 Texas (5-0) 26-5 99% 40% 27%
Oklahoma St (5-0) 18-12 39% 4% 0%
10 39 Oklahoma (2-1) 17-11 55% 8% 1%
Florida Intl (3-1) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (1-3) 13-17 3% 3% 0%
AR Lit Rock (3-1) 14-15 3% 2% 0%
Arkansas St (0-2) 9-20 1% 1% 0%
Middle Tenn (3-1) 15-15 3% 3% 0%
LA Lafayette (2-3) 19-12 9% 8% 0%
New Orleans (1-1) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
S Alabama (1-2) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
North Texas (3-1) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 66 Denver (2-1) 19-10 33% 31% 0%
14 56 N Mex State (2-3) 22-9 67% 65% 0%
Idaho State (0-3) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
N Arizona (1-4) 16-14 8% 8% 0%
Sac State (3-1) 15-14 4% 4% 0%
Weber State (2-3) 14-14 12% 12% 0%
Montana (1-2) 15-14 9% 9% 0%
Montana St (0-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (3-0) 14-14 4% 4% 0%
13 50 E Washingtn (4-1) 24-7 60% 50% 0%
Wyoming (4-0) 21-10 16% 6% 0%
6 22 Utah (2-1) 22-8 81% 18% 3%
8 30 Colorado St (3-0) 21-8 62% 18% 0%
New Mexico (3-2) 18-12 13% 6% 0%
3 12 San Diego St (5-0) 27-4 95% 50% 3%
UNLV (3-1) 16-15 11% 8% 0%
7 28 BYU (4-1) 23-8 73% 14% 0%
Air Force (3-2) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
Albany (1-2) 16-13 20% 20% 0%
Maine (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
16 64 Vermont (2-2) 19-10 36% 36% 0%
Binghamton (1-5) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (2-2) 14-14 5% 5% 0%
Boston U (1-3) 14-14 8% 8% 0%
Maryland BC (0-4) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (4-1) 16-13 9% 9% 0%
13 53 Northeastrn (4-0) 22-9 49% 35% 0%
Stony Brook (3-2) 19-12 28% 28% 0%
Illinois St (2-2) 17-13 12% 4% 0%
Drake (1-3) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
10 38 N Iowa (5-0) 23-7 62% 19% 0%
Missouri St (2-1) 14-14 4% 2% 0%
Bradley (2-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
12 46 Creighton (5-0) 20-10 48% 8% 0%
3 9 Wichita St (3-0) 25-3 96% 54% 17%
S Illinois (2-3) 14-17 1% 1% 0%
9 34 Evansville (3-1) 23-7 55% 19% 0%
Indiana St (3-1) 15-14 2% 1% 0%
Delaware St (2-2) 15-16 8% 8% 0%
NC A&T (1-4) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Hampton (1-4) 15-14 12% 12% 0%
Beth-Cook (2-4) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Morgan St (0-5) 11-19 4% 4% 0%
S Car State (1-3) 9-22 1% 1% 0%
Howard (3-3) 17-14 8% 8% 0%
Maryland ES (1-6) 9-22 1% 1% 0%
Coppin State (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (2-3) 14-16 6% 6% 0%
Florida A&M (0-5) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (0-4) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Geo Mason (1-4) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (1-4) 10-18 4% 4% 0%
James Mad (3-1) 14-17 2% 2% 0%
Old Dominion (4-1) 23-7 41% 25% 0%
Hofstra (3-2) 18-13 10% 10% 0%
5 20 VCU (4-1) 25-6 89% 37% 1%
NC-Wilmgton (2-1) 16-13 16% 13% 0%
Wm & Mary (4-1) 17-12 21% 16% 0%
Towson (4-1) 17-14 5% 5% 0%
Citadel (2-3) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Davidson (2-1) 16-13 10% 3% 0%
14 57 Wofford (5-1) 23-7 52% 45% 0%
Col Charlestn (2-3) 16-15 11% 11% 0%
Furman (1-2) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (3-1) 17-11 7% 7% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (1-4) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Elon (2-2) 14-16 4% 4% 0%
Chattanooga (1-3) 15-15 4% 4% 0%
W Carolina (2-3) 14-17 4% 4% 0%
E Tenn St (3-1) 18-11 21% 20% 0%
App State (2-2) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (4-1) 19-10 19% 16% 0%
Campbell (1-2) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Fla Atlantic (1-3) 12-17 1% 1% 0%
Jacksonville (1-4) 5-25 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (2-3) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (2-3) 12-17 3% 3% 0%
12 45 Georgia St (3-2) 24-7 72% 57% 0%
Gard-Webb (2-3) 17-13 9% 9% 0%
Central FL (3-0) 14-15 1% 0% 0%
Mercer (2-2) 17-12 13% 13% 0%
Troy (1-3) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (4-1) 19-12 34% 7% 0%
Fordham (1-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (3-0) 17-10 19% 5% 0%
St Josephs (3-2) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (3-1) 16-13 5% 2% 0%
Temple (3-2) 17-14 12% 3% 0%
Duquesne (2-0) 17-12 7% 2% 0%
Dayton (3-1) 20-10 34% 10% 0%
4 14 Xavier (4-0) 22-7 87% 22% 4%
La Salle (4-0) 17-13 12% 3% 0%
Richmond (2-1) 20-11 37% 10% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (2-1) 21-8 46% 18% 0%
Alabama St (1-1) 19-8 0% 0% 0%
Southern (1-4) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (1-4) 13-18 19% 19% 0%
Prairie View (0-5) 11-18 15% 15% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (1-5) 12-19 15% 15% 0%
16 65 TX Southern (0-4) 14-17 36% 36% 0%
Miss Val St (0-4) 3-27 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (1-3) 3-25 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (1-3) 9-19 6% 6% 0%
Alcorn State (1-4) 11-18 9% 9% 0%
Ohio (2-1) 14-13 10% 5% 0%
Marshall (3-1) 17-14 4% 4% 0%
Akron (3-2) 20-11 16% 11% 0%
13 54 Buffalo (3-1) 20-10 43% 21% 0%
Miami (OH) (2-2) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (4-1) 18-12 6% 5% 0%
N Illinois (2-0) 14-15 3% 2% 0%
E Michigan (5-0) 16-15 2% 1% 0%
Bowling Grn (3-0) 19-10 25% 14% 0%
Toledo (2-3) 19-12 28% 18% 0%
W Michigan (3-1) 17-11 21% 13% 0%
Ball State (2-2) 12-17 1% 1% 0%
Central Mich (4-0) 19-10 14% 9% 0%
Mt St Marys (1-2) 11-18 7% 7% 0%
St Fran (PA) (2-3) 14-15 13% 13% 0%
Central Conn (0-5) 9-22 4% 4% 0%
Quinnipiac (2-2) 16-13 7% 7% 0%
Rob Morris (1-3) 13-16 10% 10% 0%
F Dickinson (2-2) 12-17 6% 6% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (0-2) 13-16 10% 10% 0%
Monmouth (2-2) 16-15 6% 6% 0%
Sacred Hrt (1-2) 11-19 6% 6% 0%
Wagner (1-3) 12-17 7% 7% 0%
St Fran (NY) (0-4) 15-15 17% 17% 0%
Oakland (1-4) 10-21 2% 2% 0%
UMKC (2-3) 12-19 4% 4% 0%
Valparaiso (4-1) 19-12 14% 13% 0%
Oral Roberts (1-3) 13-17 7% 7% 0%
IUPUI (2-3) 9-21 3% 3% 0%
W Illinois (1-3) 9-18 2% 2% 0%
S Utah (0-3) 4-24 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (2-4) 9-22 1% 1% 0%
Cal Poly (2-1) 12-16 5% 4% 0%
UC Davis (3-0) 11-18 1% 1% 0%
Lg Beach St (2-3) 16-14 29% 20% 0%
UC Riverside (2-2) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
UCSB (1-2) 19-9 39% 30% 0%
Utah State (3-1) 16-14 2% 1% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (2-3) 14-17 3% 3% 0%
14 58 UC Irvine (2-2) 21-8 43% 35% 0%
Idaho (2-2) 13-16 3% 3% 0%
CS Fullerton (1-3) 13-18 3% 3% 0%
Pacific (2-2) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
16 67 Lafayette (3-1) 20-9 28% 25% 0%
Army (5-0) 20-9 21% 19% 0%
Colgate (1-3) 14-17 5% 5% 0%
Navy (1-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (0-4) 10-18 3% 3% 0%
American (3-2) 17-13 18% 16% 0%
Bucknell (2-4) 12-19 2% 2% 0%
Holy Cross (3-0) 19-9 26% 22% 0%
1 4 Wisconsin (4-0) 26-3 100% 41% 30%
13 51 Purdue (4-1) 20-11 42% 3% 0%
11 41 Iowa (3-2) 20-11 55% 4% 1%
Michigan (4-1) 17-13 29% 1% 0%
Penn State (5-1) 14-17 1% 0% 0%
2 7 Ohio State (3-0) 26-5 96% 25% 26%
7 27 Michigan St (3-1) 21-8 71% 7% 2%
Indiana (4-1) 18-13 24% 1% 0%
6 21 Illinois (4-0) 23-8 82% 9% 3%
Minnesota (3-1) 18-12 29% 2% 0%
Northwestern (5-0) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
Marquette (2-2) 13-15 8% 2% 0%
Tulane (3-1) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
S Mississippi (3-1) 16-13 5% 4% 0%
DePaul (2-0) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (4-0) 16-14 4% 1% 0%
UAB (2-2) 10-19 2% 2% 0%
S Florida (4-1) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
8 29 Memphis (1-1) 21-9 63% 17% 2%
E Carolina (3-2) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
1 3 Louisville (4-0) 27-4 100% 29% 40%
Houston (2-1) 17-13 3% 1% 0%
Cincinnati (4-0) 18-12 37% 7% 0%
Charlotte (3-2) 20-11 17% 13% 0%
Saint Louis (3-1) 16-14 3% 1% 0%
Wash State (1-2) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Oregon (3-2) 19-12 28% 3% 0%
USC (3-3) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
8 31 UCLA (4-0) 20-9 63% 10% 1%
Oregon St (3-1) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
7 26 Stanford (4-1) 21-9 76% 13% 1%
9 36 California (3-1) 21-10 55% 8% 1%
Washington (3-0) 16-12 12% 2% 0%
Arizona St (3-2) 16-15 9% 2% 0%
2 8 Arizona (5-0) 26-5 98% 39% 16%
Florida St (2-3) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
5 17 Virginia (5-0) 22-7 90% 6% 2%
Clemson (3-2) 16-14 7% 0% 0%
6 23 Maryland (5-0) 23-8 80% 6% 4%
NC State (4-0) 19-12 37% 1% 0%
1 2 Duke (5-0) 28-3 100% 46% 63%
Wake Forest (3-2) 13-18 2% 0% 0%
GA Tech (3-0) 13-15 7% 0% 0%
4 13 N Carolina (3-0) 22-7 95% 11% 5%
Fairfield (2-3) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Manhattan (1-3) 15-14 8% 8% 0%
12 49 Iona (3-1) 23-8 54% 35% 0%
Rider (2-2) 14-15 4% 4% 0%
St Peters (1-4) 14-16 4% 4% 0%
Loyola-MD (2-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (2-1) 15-14 7% 6% 0%
Siena (1-2) 18-11 30% 28% 0%
Marist (0-4) 8-22 1% 1% 0%
Niagara (1-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 76.8%
Duke 63.0%
Louisville 40.1%
Wisconsin 30.3%
Texas 27.3%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Gonzaga 76.8%
Kentucky 74.9%
N Mex State 65.4%
Georgia St 56.9%
NC Central 56.3%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Evansville 55.0%
Georgetown 49.1%
California 55.0%
Texas A&M 54.0%
Oklahoma 55.0%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Providence 55.6% 42.5%
Miami (FL) 88.3% 36.6%
Stanford 76.0% 32.8%
Arkansas 93.3% 26.2%
E Washingtn 60.3% 22.6%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Colorado 33.8% -34.6%
Pittsburgh 5.7% -34.2%
Indiana 24.2% -29.5%
Iowa 54.9% -25.8%
Saint Louis 3.0% -23.2%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
E Kentucky 44.0% 19.1%
Harvard 54.3% 17.6%
E Washingtn 50.2% 16.1%
Fla Gulf Cst 49.5% 14.9%
Ohio State 25.2% 11.2%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Belmont 15.9% -12.6%
Princeton 3.3% -12.1%
Murray St 22.3% -11.8%
Oral Roberts 7.4% -10.7%
Cleveland St 12.9% -9.5%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Ohio State 26.1% 15.1%
Texas 27.0% 10.7%
Gonzaga 25.8% 6.3%
Arkansas 11.0% 6.3%
Wisconsin 30.2% 4.7%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Iowa 0.5% -7.7%
Arizona 16.4% -7.5%
Iowa State 4.5% -5.1%
Maryland 3.6% -5.0%
S Methodist 2.1% -4.5%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Arkansas 4.2 -1.7
Miami (FL) 6.3 -1.6
Ohio State 3.4 -1.6
E Washingtn 11.8 -1.6
Fla Gulf Cst 13.4 -1.5

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
USC 15.0 4.9
S Illinois 14.5 3.1
Fresno St 13.6 3.0
Iowa 8.1 2.6
Oregon St 12.6 2.4

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