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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2014

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (10-18) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
South Dakota (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Bryant (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
North Dakota (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
CS Bakersfld (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Incarnate Word (21-6) 21-6 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (6-26) 6-26 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (13-16) 13-16 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Neb Omaha (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
Grand Canyon (15-14) 15-14 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
11 44 N Dakota St (25-6) 25-6 100% 100% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (22-12) 22-12 0% 0% 0%
Longwood (8-24) 8-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Houston Bap (6-25) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (20-11) 20-11 0% 0% 0%
N Florida (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
Central Ark (8-21) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
14 58 NC Central (28-5) 28-5 100% 100% 0%
Abilene Christian (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
Kennesaw St (6-25) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
Alabama (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
LSU (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Miss State (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
Arkansas (21-11) 21-11 1% 0% 0%
Mississippi (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
S Carolina (14-20) 14-20 0% 0% 0%
1 1 Florida (31-2) 31-2 100% 60% 87%
Georgia (19-13) 19-13 1% 0% 0%
12 48 Tennessee (21-12) 21-12 58% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
6 24 Kentucky (24-9) 24-9 100% 40% 0%
14 55 Ste F Austin (31-2) 31-2 100% 100% 0%
Texas State (8-23) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
McNeese St (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
TX-Arlington (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
SE Louisiana (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
NW State (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
Sam Hous St (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
Nicholls St (14-15) 14-15 0% 0% 0%
Lamar (4-26) 4-26 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (8-22) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (10-17) 10-17 0% 0% 0%
TX-Pan Am (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
TX A&M-CC (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Savannah St (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
IPFW (24-10) 24-10 0% 0% 0%
Columbia (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Cornell (2-26) 2-26 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (20-8) 20-8 0% 0% 0%
Yale (15-13) 15-13 0% 0% 0%
Dartmouth (12-16) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
9 34 Harvard (26-4) 26-4 100% 100% 0%
U Penn (8-20) 8-20 0% 0% 0%
Brown (15-13) 15-13 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-Chi (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (20-14) 20-14 0% 0% 0%
Youngs St (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Butler (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
14 56 WI-Milwkee (21-13) 21-13 100% 100% 0%
IL-Chicago (6-25) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
WI-Grn Bay (24-6) 24-6 17% 0% 0%
Cleveland St (21-11) 21-11 0% 0% 0%
Detroit (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
Radford (21-12) 21-12 0% 0% 0%
Charl South (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Winthrop (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
16 67 Coastal Car (21-12) 21-12 100% 100% 0%
VA Military (19-12) 19-12 0% 0% 0%
Liberty (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
High Point (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
NC-Asheville (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Hawaii (20-11) 20-11 0% 0% 0%
Fresno St (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Nevada (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
8 32 S Methodist (23-9) 23-9 95% 0% 0%
LA Tech (27-7) 27-7 11% 0% 0%
Rice (7-23) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
13 54 Tulsa (21-12) 21-12 100% 100% 0%
Boise State (21-13) 21-13 0% 0% 0%
San Jose St (7-24) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
Georgetown (17-14) 17-14 8% 0% 0%
10 37 Providence (23-11) 23-11 100% 100% 0%
St Johns (20-12) 20-12 21% 0% 0%
Rutgers (12-21) 12-21 0% 0% 0%
10 39 Pittsburgh (25-9) 25-9 93% 0% 0%
Miami (FL) (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
6 22 Connecticut (26-8) 26-8 100% 0% 0%
VA Tech (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
1 4 Villanova (28-4) 28-4 100% 0% 57%
W Virginia (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
2 6 Syracuse (27-5) 27-5 100% 0% 15%
Boston Col (8-24) 8-24 0% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (17-17) 17-17 0% 0% 0%
Pepperdine (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (21-11) 21-11 1% 0% 0%
7 27 Gonzaga (28-6) 28-6 100% 100% 0%
Loyola Mymt (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
St Marys (22-11) 22-11 0% 0% 0%
Portland (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Austin Peay (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
15 61 E Kentucky (24-9) 24-9 100% 100% 0%
TN Tech (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
TN Martin (8-23) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
E Illinois (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (18-11) 18-11 0% 0% 0%
SE Missouri (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Morehead St (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
Jksnville St (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
TN State (5-25) 5-25 0% 0% 0%
Samford (13-20) 13-20 0% 0% 0%
9 36 Nebraska (19-12) 19-12 99% 0% 0%
8 30 Baylor (24-11) 24-11 100% 0% 0%
Missouri (22-11) 22-11 8% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
2 7 Kansas (24-9) 24-9 100% 0% 13%
Texas A&M (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
10 38 Colorado (23-11) 23-11 97% 0% 0%
4 14 Iowa State (26-7) 26-7 100% 100% 1%
9 33 Kansas St (20-12) 20-12 94% 0% 0%
8 29 Texas (23-10) 23-10 100% 0% 0%
Oklahoma St (21-12) 21-12 40% 0% 0%
6 21 Oklahoma (23-9) 23-9 100% 0% 0%
Florida Intl (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
AR Lit Rock (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Arkansas St (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Middle Tenn (24-9) 24-9 4% 0% 0%
LA Lafayette (22-11) 22-11 39% 39% 0%
New Orleans (11-15) 11-15 0% 0% 0%
S Alabama (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
North Texas (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
Denver (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
13 53 N Mex State (26-9) 26-9 100% 100% 0%
Idaho State (11-18) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
N Arizona (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Sac State (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
15 62 Weber State (19-11) 19-11 100% 100% 0%
Montana (17-13) 17-13 0% 0% 0%
Montana St (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
E Washingtn (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Wyoming (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Utah (21-11) 21-11 1% 0% 0%
Colorado St (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
7 26 New Mexico (27-6) 27-6 100% 100% 0%
4 16 San Diego St (29-4) 29-4 100% 0% 0%
UNLV (20-13) 20-13 0% 0% 0%
11 43 BYU (23-11) 23-11 92% 0% 0%
Air Force (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 63 Albany (18-14) 18-14 100% 100% 0%
Maine (6-23) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Vermont (22-10) 22-10 0% 0% 0%
Binghamton (7-23) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (6-24) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Boston U (24-10) 24-10 0% 0% 0%
Maryland BC (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
Northeastrn (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Stony Brook (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
Illinois St (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Drake (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
N Iowa (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
Missouri St (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
Bradley (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
3 10 Creighton (26-7) 26-7 100% 0% 5%
1 3 Wichita St (34-0) 34-0 100% 100% 85%
S Illinois (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
Evansville (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
Indiana St (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
Delaware St (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
NC A&T (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
Hampton (18-12) 18-12 0% 0% 0%
Beth-Cook (7-25) 7-25 0% 0% 0%
Morgan St (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
S Car State (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Howard (8-25) 8-25 0% 0% 0%
Maryland ES (6-24) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Coppin State (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
Florida A&M (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
13 51 Delaware (25-9) 25-9 100% 100% 0%
Geo Mason (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
James Mad (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Old Dominion (16-17) 16-17 0% 0% 0%
Hofstra (10-23) 10-23 0% 0% 0%
6 23 VCU (26-7) 26-7 100% 74% 0%
NC-Wilmgton (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
Wm & Mary (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
Towson (23-10) 23-10 0% 0% 0%
Citadel (7-26) 7-26 0% 0% 0%
Davidson (20-12) 20-12 0% 0% 0%
16 66 Wofford (20-12) 20-12 100% 100% 0%
Col Charlestn (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
Furman (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (15-19) 15-19 0% 0% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
Elon (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Chattanooga (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
W Carolina (19-15) 19-15 0% 0% 0%
E Tenn St (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
App State (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (24-9) 24-9 1% 0% 0%
Campbell (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
Fla Atlantic (10-22) 10-22 0% 0% 0%
Jacksonville (12-18) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (7-24) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
14 57 Georgia St (25-7) 25-7 62% 61% 0%
Gard-Webb (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Central FL (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
15 59 Mercer (26-8) 26-8 100% 100% 0%
Troy (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
7 25 U Mass (24-8) 24-8 98% 0% 0%
Fordham (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
11 41 St Josephs (23-9) 23-9 97% 26% 0%
St Bonavent (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Temple (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Duquesne (13-17) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
Dayton (23-10) 23-10 39% 0% 0%
9 35 Xavier (21-12) 21-12 84% 0% 0%
La Salle (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Richmond (19-14) 19-14 0% 0% 0%
10 40 Geo Wshgtn (24-8) 24-8 94% 0% 0%
Alabama St (19-12) 19-12 6% 6% 0%
Southern (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (11-20) 11-20 11% 11% 0%
Prairie View (11-23) 11-23 3% 3% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
16 68 TX Southern (19-14) 19-14 79% 79% 0%
Miss Val St (9-23) 9-23 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (5-24) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (14-16) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
Alcorn State (12-19) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Ohio (23-11) 23-11 0% 0% 0%
Marshall (11-22) 11-22 0% 0% 0%
Akron (21-12) 21-12 0% 0% 0%
Buffalo (19-10) 19-10 0% 0% 0%
Miami (OH) (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (16-16) 16-16 0% 0% 0%
N Illinois (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
E Michigan (21-14) 21-14 0% 0% 0%
Bowling Grn (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
12 49 Toledo (27-6) 27-6 60% 0% 0%
13 52 W Michigan (23-9) 23-9 100% 100% 0%
Ball State (5-25) 5-25 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
16 65 Mt St Marys (16-16) 16-16 100% 100% 0%
St Fran (PA) (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Central Conn (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Quinnipiac (20-11) 20-11 0% 0% 0%
Rob Morris (21-13) 21-13 0% 0% 0%
F Dickinson (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (9-20) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Monmouth (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
Sacred Hrt (5-26) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
Wagner (18-12) 18-12 0% 0% 0%
St Fran (NY) (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Oakland (13-20) 13-20 0% 0% 0%
UMKC (10-20) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Valparaiso (18-15) 18-15 0% 0% 0%
Oral Roberts (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
IUPUI (6-26) 6-26 0% 0% 0%
W Illinois (10-20) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
S Utah (2-27) 2-27 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (13-19) 13-19 0% 0% 0%
16 64 Cal Poly (13-19) 13-19 100% 100% 0%
UC Davis (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Lg Beach St (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
UC Riverside (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
UCSB (21-9) 21-9 0% 0% 0%
Utah State (18-14) 18-14 0% 0% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (17-18) 17-18 0% 0% 0%
UC Irvine (23-11) 23-11 0% 0% 0%
Idaho (16-18) 16-18 0% 0% 0%
CS Fullerton (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Pacific (15-15) 15-15 0% 0% 0%
Lafayette (11-20) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Army (15-16) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
Colgate (13-18) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Navy (9-21) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (14-18) 14-18 0% 0% 0%
15 60 American (20-12) 20-12 100% 100% 0%
Bucknell (16-14) 16-14 0% 0% 0%
Holy Cross (19-13) 19-13 0% 0% 0%
2 8 Wisconsin (26-7) 26-7 100% 0% 12%
Purdue (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Iowa (20-12) 20-12 38% 0% 0%
2 5 Michigan (25-7) 25-7 100% 46% 26%
Penn State (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
5 17 Ohio State (25-9) 25-9 100% 0% 0%
4 13 Michigan St (25-8) 25-8 100% 54% 1%
Indiana (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Illinois (19-14) 19-14 2% 0% 0%
12 50 Minnesota (20-13) 20-13 57% 0% 0%
Northwestern (14-19) 14-19 0% 0% 0%
Marquette (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
Tulane (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
12 47 S Mississippi (27-6) 27-6 67% 0% 0%
DePaul (12-21) 12-21 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (9-22) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
UAB (18-13) 18-13 0% 0% 0%
S Florida (12-20) 12-20 0% 0% 0%
8 31 Memphis (23-9) 23-9 100% 0% 0%
E Carolina (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
3 12 Louisville (29-5) 29-5 100% 100% 1%
Houston (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
5 19 Cincinnati (27-6) 27-6 100% 0% 0%
Charlotte (17-14) 17-14 0% 0% 0%
5 20 Saint Louis (26-6) 26-6 100% 0% 0%
Wash State (10-21) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
7 28 Oregon (23-9) 23-9 98% 0% 0%
USC (11-21) 11-21 0% 0% 0%
5 18 UCLA (26-8) 26-8 100% 100% 0%
Oregon St (16-15) 16-15 0% 0% 0%
11 42 Stanford (21-12) 21-12 90% 0% 0%
California (19-13) 19-13 13% 0% 0%
Washington (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
12 46 Arizona St (21-11) 21-11 67% 0% 0%
1 2 Arizona (30-4) 30-4 100% 0% 86%
Florida St (19-13) 19-13 34% 0% 0%
3 11 Virginia (27-6) 27-6 100% 46% 3%
Clemson (20-12) 20-12 1% 0% 0%
Maryland (17-15) 17-15 0% 0% 0%
NC State (21-13) 21-13 11% 3% 0%
3 9 Duke (26-7) 26-7 100% 51% 7%
Wake Forest (17-16) 17-16 0% 0% 0%
GA Tech (16-17) 16-17 0% 0% 0%
4 15 N Carolina (23-9) 23-9 100% 0% 0%
Fairfield (7-25) 7-25 0% 0% 0%
12 45 Manhattan (25-7) 25-7 100% 100% 0%
Iona (22-10) 22-10 6% 0% 0%
Rider (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
St Peters (14-17) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-MD (11-19) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (21-12) 21-12 0% 0% 0%
Siena (15-17) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Marist (12-19) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Niagara (7-26) 7-26 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Florida 87.2%
Arizona 86.2%
Wichita St 85.0%
Villanova 56.6%
Michigan 25.7%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
E Kentucky 100.0%
Coastal Car 100.0%
New Mexico 100.0%
Harvard 100.0%
Tulsa 100.0%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
N Dakota St 100.0%
Minnesota 57.1%
Tennessee 58.3%
Harvard 100.0%
Oklahoma St 40.0%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Cal Poly 100.0% 94.7%
Albany 100.0% 90.1%
Tulsa 100.0% 87.4%
W Michigan 100.0% 79.9%
WI-Milwkee 100.0% 76.9%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Boston U 0.0% -72.2%
LA Tech 11.0% -41.3%
Iona 6.3% -38.9%
Georgetown 8.0% -32.4%
Iowa 37.7% -27.7%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Providence 100.0% 95.3%
Cal Poly 100.0% 94.7%
Albany 100.0% 90.1%
Tulsa 100.0% 87.8%
UCLA 100.0% 84.7%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Alcorn State 1.2% -0.8%
Prairie View 2.8% 1.3%
NC State 2.7% 2.3%
Jackson St 11.4% 5.8%
Kentucky 39.9% 9.1%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Michigan 25.7% 13.5%
Wichita St 85.0% 8.6%
Florida 87.2% 4.8%
Syracuse 14.7% 4.0%
Duke 6.7% 2.0%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Wisconsin 12.4% -29.7%
Virginia 3.0% -4.9%
Kansas 13.0% -1.4%
U Mass 0.0% -0.1%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Nebraska 9.2 -1.5
Providence 9.6 -0.7
Saint Louis 5.7 -0.7
New Mexico 6.9 -0.6
Iowa State 4.3 -0.5

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Florida St 12.0 1.3
U Mass 6.8 1.2
Washington 13.6 1.1
Richmond 13.7 1.1
Arkansas 11.7 1.1

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