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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (6-4) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
South Dakota (3-8) 13-18 6% 6% 0%
Bryant (2-5) 14-15 16% 16% 0%
North Dakota (3-6) 11-19 1% 1% 0%
CS Bakersfld (1-8) 11-19 6% 6% 0%
Incarnate Word (7-1) 20-8 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (4-7) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (4-7) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (4-6) 14-15 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (6-3) 18-12 21% 20% 0%
Neb Omaha (5-5) 16-13 11% 11% 0%
Grand Canyon (5-7) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
16 64 SC Upstate (8-4) 23-8 42% 42% 0%
N Dakota St (6-4) 16-12 14% 14% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (8-2) 21-9 37% 36% 0%
Longwood (3-8) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (5-5) 15-13 11% 11% 0%
Houston Bap (4-4) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (3-6) 12-16 4% 4% 0%
N Florida (6-5) 18-13 18% 18% 0%
Central Ark (0-9) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (1-7) 8-19 0% 0% 0%
15 59 NC Central (7-5) 23-7 64% 64% 0%
Abilene Christian (4-5) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (4-5) 17-12 9% 9% 0%
Kennesaw St (4-7) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (4-5) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Alabama (6-3) 18-13 30% 1% 0%
LSU (7-2) 19-12 23% 1% 0%
Miss State (5-4) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
5 19 Arkansas (7-2) 24-7 84% 6% 4%
Mississippi (6-3) 17-14 17% 1% 0%
S Carolina (5-3) 17-13 27% 1% 0%
7 25 Florida (6-4) 21-10 84% 11% 0%
Georgia (5-3) 18-12 34% 2% 0%
Tennessee (4-4) 15-15 10% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (7-2) 17-14 6% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (11-0) 30-1 100% 76% 87%
Ste F Austin (8-3) 25-6 48% 46% 0%
Texas State (5-3) 15-14 3% 2% 0%
McNeese St (5-3) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
TX-Arlington (5-4) 17-13 7% 7% 0%
SE Louisiana (2-8) 14-17 3% 3% 0%
NW State (3-5) 13-16 1% 1% 0%
14 58 Sam Hous St (6-4) 24-7 48% 48% 0%
Nicholls St (2-5) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Lamar (3-6) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (4-4) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (5-4) 17-14 4% 4% 0%
TX-Pan Am (5-5) 11-19 1% 1% 0%
TX A&M-CC (3-6) 12-18 1% 1% 0%
Savannah St (3-9) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
IPFW (6-3) 16-12 12% 12% 0%
Columbia (5-3) 18-10 21% 19% 0%
Cornell (5-4) 12-18 1% 1% 0%
Princeton (3-8) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
Yale (8-3) 22-9 30% 21% 0%
Dartmouth (4-5) 13-15 2% 2% 0%
9 36 Harvard (7-1) 21-7 61% 54% 0%
U Penn (3-5) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Brown (5-6) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-Chi (7-2) 15-14 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (7-4) 16-14 3% 3% 0%
Youngs St (7-6) 14-17 1% 1% 0%
6 24 Butler (8-2) 22-9 84% 16% 1%
WI-Milwkee (5-6) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (3-9) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
10 37 WI-Grn Bay (8-2) 23-6 66% 50% 0%
Cleveland St (5-5) 18-13 18% 17% 0%
Detroit (6-5) 17-14 9% 9% 0%
Radford (6-4) 19-12 7% 7% 0%
Charl South (5-4) 17-11 11% 11% 0%
Winthrop (4-5) 16-13 7% 7% 0%
15 60 Coastal Car (8-2) 23-7 54% 54% 0%
VA Military (5-6) 16-13 13% 13% 0%
Liberty (4-6) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
High Point (7-3) 19-11 8% 8% 0%
NC-Asheville (4-6) 15-14 5% 5% 0%
Hawaii (7-3) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Fresno St (4-7) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Nevada (2-7) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
6 23 S Methodist (7-3) 22-8 88% 30% 0%
LA Tech (7-3) 22-9 26% 19% 0%
Rice (2-6) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (6-3) 21-8 46% 25% 0%
Tulsa (6-5) 16-14 10% 3% 0%
Boise State (8-2) 21-9 35% 12% 0%
San Jose St (2-9) 4-26 0% 0% 0%
9 35 Georgetown (6-3) 18-11 66% 11% 0%
Providence (8-3) 17-14 20% 2% 0%
14 57 St Johns (8-1) 19-12 40% 4% 0%
Rutgers (6-4) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (7-3) 18-14 11% 0% 0%
8 30 Miami (FL) (9-1) 22-9 72% 1% 0%
11 41 Connecticut (4-3) 18-12 62% 33% 0%
VA Tech (5-4) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
11 43 Notre Dame (10-1) 22-9 46% 2% 0%
2 6 Villanova (10-0) 27-4 99% 43% 23%
7 26 W Virginia (9-1) 21-10 76% 7% 1%
Syracuse (6-3) 18-13 35% 1% 0%
Boston Col (6-3) 13-17 1% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (8-1) 18-12 32% 3% 0%
Pepperdine (7-2) 16-13 1% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (5-4) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (5-5) 15-15 2% 1% 0%
2 5 Gonzaga (10-1) 29-2 100% 75% 16%
Loyola Mymt (3-6) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (6-5) 17-13 9% 3% 0%
St Marys (6-2) 18-11 10% 2% 0%
Portland (7-3) 16-14 1% 1% 0%
Austin Peay (3-7) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
16 67 E Kentucky (5-4) 19-10 26% 26% 0%
TN Tech (6-4) 16-14 4% 4% 0%
TN Martin (6-3) 19-10 11% 11% 0%
E Illinois (4-6) 11-18 1% 1% 0%
Murray St (7-4) 21-9 25% 24% 0%
SE Missouri (5-5) 15-14 5% 5% 0%
Morehead St (4-9) 16-15 11% 11% 0%
Jksnville St (7-4) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
TN State (2-8) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Samford (4-8) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (6-3) 13-15 8% 0% 0%
6 21 Baylor (9-1) 22-9 85% 7% 2%
Missouri (5-5) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (8-1) 16-14 5% 0% 0%
3 12 Kansas (8-1) 24-7 100% 22% 18%
Texas A&M (7-2) 19-11 31% 1% 0%
Colorado (6-3) 17-11 34% 4% 0%
4 15 Iowa State (8-1) 21-9 90% 12% 5%
Kansas St (6-4) 14-17 10% 1% 0%
2 7 Texas (9-1) 25-6 99% 33% 24%
12 46 Oklahoma St (9-1) 19-11 52% 4% 0%
4 16 Oklahoma (7-2) 21-9 92% 13% 4%
Florida Intl (6-4) 15-16 1% 1% 0%
W Kentucky (5-4) 17-13 5% 4% 0%
AR Lit Rock (4-4) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
Arkansas St (3-4) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
Middle Tenn (5-5) 16-15 2% 2% 0%
LA Lafayette (6-4) 20-11 14% 14% 0%
New Orleans (2-4) 10-17 0% 0% 0%
S Alabama (2-5) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
North Texas (5-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 68 Denver (5-5) 17-12 21% 21% 0%
14 55 N Mex State (4-7) 21-10 72% 72% 0%
Idaho State (3-5) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
N Arizona (4-6) 16-15 9% 9% 0%
Sac State (5-4) 15-14 4% 4% 0%
Weber State (3-5) 13-15 13% 13% 0%
Montana (3-6) 15-14 8% 8% 0%
Montana St (3-6) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Portland St (5-3) 14-14 3% 3% 0%
13 51 E Washingtn (8-3) 24-7 58% 48% 0%
Wyoming (8-2) 21-9 20% 9% 0%
4 13 Utah (7-2) 24-6 98% 29% 5%
9 34 Colorado St (10-0) 24-7 63% 16% 0%
New Mexico (7-3) 18-12 12% 7% 0%
5 18 San Diego St (7-3) 24-7 90% 38% 0%
UNLV (7-2) 18-13 19% 13% 0%
9 33 BYU (8-3) 23-8 75% 17% 0%
Air Force (6-3) 16-13 3% 2% 0%
Albany (3-6) 15-14 14% 14% 0%
Maine (1-8) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
16 65 Vermont (5-4) 18-11 38% 38% 0%
Binghamton (1-11) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (6-3) 19-10 16% 16% 0%
Boston U (3-6) 11-17 3% 3% 0%
Maryland BC (1-9) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (6-5) 16-13 9% 9% 0%
Northeastrn (6-3) 19-12 20% 17% 0%
Stony Brook (5-5) 18-13 20% 20% 0%
Illinois St (6-3) 19-11 18% 6% 0%
Drake (2-8) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
7 28 N Iowa (9-1) 24-6 74% 21% 0%
Missouri St (5-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
Bradley (3-6) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Creighton (8-3) 17-14 15% 3% 0%
3 11 Wichita St (8-1) 25-3 99% 56% 8%
S Illinois (7-4) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
10 40 Evansville (7-2) 23-7 47% 16% 0%
Indiana St (4-6) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Delaware St (5-6) 15-16 3% 3% 0%
NC A&T (1-11) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Hampton (4-6) 16-13 11% 11% 0%
Beth-Cook (3-8) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Morgan St (2-8) 11-19 3% 3% 0%
S Car State (3-8) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Howard (6-7) 15-16 4% 4% 0%
Maryland ES (5-7) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Coppin State (1-9) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (7-5) 18-13 12% 12% 0%
Florida A&M (0-9) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (0-7) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
Geo Mason (2-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (2-7) 9-20 2% 2% 0%
James Mad (7-3) 17-14 5% 5% 0%
7 27 Old Dominion (8-1) 25-5 70% 33% 0%
15 62 Hofstra (7-2) 23-8 34% 29% 0%
5 17 VCU (7-3) 24-7 94% 36% 0%
NC-Wilmgton (4-3) 17-12 18% 15% 0%
Wm & Mary (5-3) 17-12 20% 15% 0%
Towson (7-3) 17-14 4% 4% 0%
Citadel (4-5) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Davidson (8-1) 20-9 39% 12% 0%
14 54 Wofford (9-2) 24-7 54% 46% 0%
Col Charlestn (5-5) 13-18 4% 4% 0%
Furman (2-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (5-2) 18-11 7% 7% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (4-7) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Elon (5-5) 17-14 9% 9% 0%
Chattanooga (6-5) 18-13 10% 10% 0%
W Carolina (3-7) 13-18 4% 4% 0%
E Tenn St (6-2) 19-10 20% 19% 0%
App State (3-4) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (7-4) 19-10 19% 18% 0%
Campbell (4-6) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
Fla Atlantic (5-3) 15-14 1% 1% 0%
Jacksonville (3-9) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (3-8) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (4-6) 13-16 3% 3% 0%
10 39 Georgia St (6-3) 25-6 79% 62% 0%
Gard-Webb (6-5) 16-15 4% 4% 0%
Central FL (6-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Mercer (5-5) 16-15 7% 7% 0%
Troy (4-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (6-4) 18-13 17% 5% 0%
Fordham (3-5) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (6-3) 21-8 36% 14% 0%
St Josephs (5-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (6-2) 18-11 8% 4% 0%
Temple (6-4) 17-14 15% 3% 0%
Duquesne (3-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Dayton (7-2) 21-9 27% 8% 0%
6 22 Xavier (8-2) 22-9 83% 15% 1%
La Salle (5-5) 16-15 4% 2% 0%
Richmond (4-4) 18-13 17% 6% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (6-3) 20-9 33% 13% 0%
Alabama St (3-4) 17-10 0% 0% 0%
Southern (3-8) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (1-9) 12-19 16% 16% 0%
Prairie View (1-9) 11-19 12% 12% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (2-8) 13-18 16% 16% 0%
16 63 TX Southern (1-8) 14-17 43% 43% 0%
Miss Val St (1-9) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (2-7) 4-24 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (1-6) 9-19 7% 7% 0%
Alcorn State (1-8) 10-19 7% 7% 0%
Ohio (3-3) 11-16 3% 2% 0%
Marshall (4-6) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Akron (6-4) 19-12 10% 9% 0%
12 47 Buffalo (6-2) 21-9 49% 25% 0%
Miami (OH) (3-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (6-2) 17-13 5% 4% 0%
N Illinois (4-3) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
E Michigan (8-2) 19-12 4% 3% 0%
Bowling Grn (6-2) 20-9 20% 13% 0%
Toledo (6-4) 20-11 34% 23% 0%
W Michigan (6-3) 18-12 13% 9% 0%
Ball State (3-5) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (7-1) 20-9 15% 11% 0%
Mt St Marys (3-5) 11-18 4% 4% 0%
16 66 St Fran (PA) (5-4) 18-11 28% 28% 0%
Central Conn (2-7) 11-20 4% 4% 0%
Quinnipiac (3-5) 14-15 4% 4% 0%
Rob Morris (3-7) 13-17 9% 9% 0%
F Dickinson (3-5) 12-17 4% 4% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (2-6) 11-18 7% 7% 0%
Monmouth (4-5) 17-14 10% 9% 0%
Sacred Hrt (5-4) 17-14 14% 14% 0%
Wagner (2-6) 11-18 5% 5% 0%
St Fran (NY) (3-7) 13-18 9% 9% 0%
Oakland (4-7) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
UMKC (4-7) 13-18 5% 5% 0%
Valparaiso (10-2) 23-8 22% 19% 0%
Oral Roberts (4-5) 15-15 11% 11% 0%
IUPUI (2-8) 8-22 2% 2% 0%
W Illinois (4-5) 10-17 2% 2% 0%
S Utah (2-5) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (2-10) 6-25 1% 1% 0%
Cal Poly (5-4) 13-15 4% 4% 0%
UC Davis (7-1) 15-14 2% 2% 0%
Lg Beach St (5-6) 17-15 30% 22% 0%
UC Riverside (5-4) 14-16 2% 2% 0%
13 52 UCSB (4-5) 20-10 55% 45% 0%
Utah State (4-4) 15-15 1% 1% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (3-8) 10-21 1% 1% 0%
UC Irvine (4-5) 17-12 20% 19% 0%
Idaho (4-5) 14-15 4% 4% 0%
CS Fullerton (4-7) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Pacific (6-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Lafayette (7-2) 19-10 21% 19% 0%
Army (7-2) 20-9 19% 19% 0%
Colgate (3-8) 13-18 7% 7% 0%
Navy (3-8) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (3-4) 14-14 9% 8% 0%
15 61 American (6-4) 20-10 35% 32% 0%
Bucknell (4-6) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Holy Cross (5-3) 16-12 10% 9% 0%
1 3 Wisconsin (10-1) 28-3 100% 44% 44%
Purdue (8-3) 19-12 31% 2% 0%
11 42 Iowa (8-3) 19-12 56% 3% 0%
Michigan (6-4) 14-16 4% 0% 0%
Penn State (10-1) 17-14 3% 0% 0%
3 9 Ohio State (9-1) 26-5 99% 30% 16%
5 20 Michigan St (8-3) 23-8 88% 10% 1%
Indiana (8-2) 18-13 29% 1% 0%
8 29 Illinois (8-3) 22-10 71% 5% 0%
12 48 Minnesota (8-2) 20-11 43% 2% 0%
Northwestern (6-4) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Marquette (5-4) 15-15 13% 2% 0%
Tulane (8-1) 17-13 2% 1% 0%
S Mississippi (5-3) 13-16 0% 0% 0%
DePaul (6-3) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (10-0) 18-13 5% 1% 0%
UAB (4-6) 13-18 3% 3% 0%
S Florida (5-4) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
14 56 Memphis (5-4) 20-11 43% 12% 0%
E Carolina (5-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
1 4 Louisville (9-0) 27-4 100% 23% 29%
Houston (5-2) 14-15 1% 0% 0%
8 31 Cincinnati (7-2) 22-9 69% 16% 0%
Charlotte (5-4) 19-12 15% 11% 0%
Saint Louis (7-4) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Wash State (4-6) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Oregon (7-3) 19-12 25% 3% 0%
USC (6-4) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
13 49 UCLA (8-3) 19-12 48% 5% 0%
Oregon St (7-2) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
11 44 Stanford (6-2) 18-12 46% 5% 0%
13 50 California (9-1) 21-10 43% 4% 0%
10 38 Washington (9-0) 21-9 50% 4% 0%
Arizona St (6-4) 16-15 10% 2% 0%
2 8 Arizona (11-0) 27-4 100% 44% 19%
Florida St (5-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
3 10 Virginia (9-0) 25-5 99% 12% 17%
Clemson (6-3) 15-15 3% 0% 0%
8 32 Maryland (10-1) 22-9 72% 3% 0%
12 45 NC State (9-2) 19-12 51% 1% 0%
1 2 Duke (9-0) 28-3 100% 45% 68%
Wake Forest (5-5) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
GA Tech (7-2) 15-15 5% 0% 0%
4 14 N Carolina (7-3) 23-8 99% 15% 5%
Fairfield (4-5) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
Manhattan (2-7) 13-16 5% 5% 0%
13 53 Iona (6-3) 24-7 53% 43% 0%
Rider (5-6) 16-15 4% 4% 0%
St Peters (4-7) 14-17 4% 4% 0%
Loyola-MD (3-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (4-4) 16-13 6% 6% 0%
Siena (3-5) 16-13 22% 22% 0%
Marist (1-9) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Niagara (1-6) 7-22 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 86.7%
Duke 67.7%
Wisconsin 44.1%
Louisville 29.2%
Texas 23.7%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Kentucky 76.1%
Gonzaga 75.1%
N Mex State 71.7%
NC Central 64.2%
Georgia St 61.6%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Connecticut 61.9%
Washington 50.2%
NC State 50.9%
Oklahoma St 51.6%
UCLA 47.7%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Oklahoma St 51.6% 19.4%
Old Dominion 70.2% 18.0%
Cincinnati 68.8% 14.6%
Rhode Island 35.9% 12.3%
Murray St 24.6% 11.7%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
UCSB 55.0% -16.4%
Evansville 46.7% -16.1%
Stanford 45.9% -15.1%
Mississippi 16.8% -13.8%
Geo Wshgtn 32.9% -13.0%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Murray St 24.3% 11.4%
Sam Hous St 47.8% 8.0%
Arizona 44.4% 7.8%
SC Upstate 42.0% 7.4%
St Fran (PA) 28.2% 6.9%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Belmont 18.4% -8.8%
Ste F Austin 46.4% -7.6%
Fla Gulf Cst 36.3% -6.4%
St Fran (NY) 9.4% -6.3%
UCSB 45.3% -6.1%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Kentucky 86.7% 8.8%
Wisconsin 44.1% 4.0%
Virginia 17.2% 3.9%
Kansas 18.5% 3.6%
Gonzaga 15.9% 3.5%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Duke 67.7% -9.0%
Ohio State 16.0% -4.4%
Utah 4.8% -4.0%
Wichita St 8.1% -2.6%
N Carolina 4.6% -2.0%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
VCU 6.0 -1.1
W Kentucky 13.2 -1.1
Cincinnati 7.7 -1.0
Xavier 6.6 -1.0
Air Force 13.2 -1.0

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
USC 13.1 2.0
Duquesne 13.6 1.9
San Fransco 12.9 1.9
Saint Louis 15.2 1.8
VA Tech 12.0 1.8

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