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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (6-4) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
South Dakota (4-8) 13-18 5% 5% 0%
Bryant (2-5) 14-15 16% 16% 0%
North Dakota (4-6) 11-19 1% 1% 0%
CS Bakersfld (1-10) 11-19 7% 7% 0%
Incarnate Word (7-1) 20-8 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (4-7) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (4-7) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (5-6) 16-13 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (8-3) 18-12 19% 19% 0%
Neb Omaha (5-5) 16-13 11% 11% 0%
Grand Canyon (5-7) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
16 63 SC Upstate (8-4) 23-8 44% 44% 0%
N Dakota St (6-4) 16-12 14% 14% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (9-2) 20-10 32% 32% 0%
Longwood (3-8) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (5-6) 14-14 8% 8% 0%
Houston Bap (4-4) 12-16 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (3-6) 12-16 4% 4% 0%
N Florida (7-5) 18-13 21% 21% 0%
Central Ark (0-9) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (1-7) 8-19 0% 0% 0%
15 59 NC Central (7-5) 23-7 63% 63% 0%
Abilene Christian (4-5) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (4-5) 17-12 10% 10% 0%
Kennesaw St (4-7) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (4-5) 12-19 1% 0% 0%
Alabama (7-3) 18-13 17% 1% 0%
LSU (8-2) 19-12 25% 1% 0%
Miss State (5-4) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
4 16 Arkansas (7-2) 24-7 85% 6% 4%
Mississippi (7-3) 17-14 15% 0% 0%
S Carolina (6-3) 18-12 38% 2% 0%
7 25 Florida (6-4) 21-10 84% 10% 0%
Georgia (5-3) 18-12 37% 2% 0%
Tennessee (5-4) 15-15 7% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (7-2) 17-14 6% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (11-0) 30-1 100% 77% 88%
Ste F Austin (8-3) 25-6 48% 46% 0%
Texas State (5-3) 15-14 2% 2% 0%
McNeese St (5-3) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
TX-Arlington (5-4) 18-12 8% 7% 0%
SE Louisiana (3-8) 15-16 3% 3% 0%
NW State (3-5) 13-16 1% 1% 0%
14 58 Sam Hous St (6-4) 24-7 48% 47% 0%
Nicholls St (2-6) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Lamar (4-6) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (4-4) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (6-4) 16-15 3% 3% 0%
TX-Pan Am (5-6) 11-19 1% 1% 0%
TX A&M-CC (3-6) 12-18 1% 1% 0%
Savannah St (3-9) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
IPFW (6-3) 16-12 12% 12% 0%
Columbia (5-3) 18-10 20% 18% 0%
Cornell (5-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (4-8) 13-17 3% 3% 0%
Yale (9-3) 22-9 35% 24% 0%
Dartmouth (5-5) 13-15 2% 2% 0%
9 35 Harvard (7-1) 21-7 61% 53% 0%
U Penn (3-5) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
Brown (5-6) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Loyola-Chi (8-2) 15-14 1% 0% 0%
Wright State (8-4) 17-13 5% 4% 0%
Youngs St (8-6) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
6 24 Butler (8-2) 22-9 84% 16% 1%
WI-Milwkee (5-6) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (3-9) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
11 41 WI-Grn Bay (8-2) 23-6 63% 48% 0%
Cleveland St (5-6) 18-13 18% 17% 0%
Detroit (6-5) 17-14 9% 9% 0%
Radford (7-4) 20-11 9% 9% 0%
Charl South (5-4) 17-11 11% 11% 0%
Winthrop (4-6) 16-13 6% 6% 0%
15 60 Coastal Car (8-3) 23-7 56% 56% 0%
VA Military (5-6) 16-13 13% 13% 0%
Liberty (5-6) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
High Point (7-3) 19-11 8% 8% 0%
NC-Asheville (4-6) 15-14 6% 6% 0%
Hawaii (8-3) 17-12 4% 4% 0%
Fresno St (4-7) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Nevada (2-8) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
6 23 S Methodist (7-3) 22-8 87% 29% 0%
LA Tech (8-3) 23-8 27% 20% 0%
Rice (3-6) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (6-4) 21-8 47% 27% 0%
Tulsa (6-5) 16-14 10% 3% 0%
Boise State (8-2) 21-9 36% 13% 0%
San Jose St (2-9) 4-26 0% 0% 0%
9 34 Georgetown (6-3) 18-11 70% 12% 0%
Providence (8-3) 17-14 21% 2% 0%
13 53 St Johns (9-1) 19-12 42% 4% 0%
Rutgers (6-4) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (7-3) 18-14 12% 0% 0%
13 52 Miami (FL) (9-2) 20-11 42% 0% 0%
10 37 Connecticut (4-4) 19-11 66% 35% 0%
VA Tech (5-4) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
10 39 Notre Dame (10-1) 22-9 47% 2% 0%
2 6 Villanova (10-0) 27-4 99% 42% 22%
7 26 W Virginia (9-1) 21-10 78% 7% 1%
Syracuse (6-3) 18-13 37% 1% 0%
Boston Col (6-3) 13-17 1% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (9-1) 19-11 40% 4% 0%
Pepperdine (7-2) 15-14 1% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (5-4) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (6-5) 16-14 3% 2% 0%
2 5 Gonzaga (10-1) 29-2 100% 74% 17%
Loyola Mymt (3-6) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (6-5) 17-13 10% 3% 0%
St Marys (6-3) 18-11 9% 2% 0%
Portland (7-3) 16-14 1% 1% 0%
Austin Peay (4-7) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
15 61 E Kentucky (6-4) 21-8 39% 38% 0%
TN Tech (6-5) 16-14 4% 4% 0%
TN Martin (6-3) 19-10 10% 10% 0%
E Illinois (4-6) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (7-4) 21-9 22% 22% 0%
SE Missouri (5-5) 15-14 4% 4% 0%
Morehead St (4-10) 14-17 5% 5% 0%
Jksnville St (7-4) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
TN State (2-9) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Samford (4-8) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (6-3) 13-15 8% 0% 0%
6 21 Baylor (9-1) 22-9 86% 8% 2%
Missouri (5-5) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (9-1) 16-14 5% 0% 0%
3 11 Kansas (8-1) 24-7 100% 22% 18%
Texas A&M (7-2) 19-11 34% 1% 0%
Colorado (6-3) 17-11 34% 4% 0%
5 17 Iowa State (8-1) 21-9 88% 12% 4%
Kansas St (6-4) 14-17 11% 1% 0%
2 8 Texas (9-1) 25-6 99% 33% 23%
12 45 Oklahoma St (9-1) 19-11 55% 4% 0%
4 15 Oklahoma (7-2) 21-9 92% 14% 4%
Florida Intl (6-5) 15-16 1% 1% 0%
W Kentucky (5-4) 17-13 5% 4% 0%
AR Lit Rock (4-4) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
Arkansas St (3-4) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
Middle Tenn (6-5) 17-14 2% 2% 0%
LA Lafayette (6-4) 20-11 15% 15% 0%
New Orleans (3-4) 12-15 0% 0% 0%
S Alabama (2-6) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
North Texas (5-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 68 Denver (5-6) 17-12 23% 23% 0%
14 56 N Mex State (4-7) 21-10 73% 73% 0%
Idaho State (3-7) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
N Arizona (4-7) 15-16 7% 7% 0%
Sac State (5-4) 15-14 4% 4% 0%
Weber State (3-5) 13-15 14% 14% 0%
Montana (3-6) 15-14 8% 8% 0%
Montana St (3-7) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Portland St (5-4) 13-15 2% 2% 0%
13 54 E Washingtn (8-4) 24-7 56% 48% 0%
Wyoming (8-2) 21-9 21% 9% 0%
4 13 Utah (7-2) 24-6 98% 29% 5%
7 28 Colorado St (11-0) 25-6 63% 16% 0%
New Mexico (7-3) 18-12 12% 7% 0%
5 19 San Diego St (7-3) 24-7 91% 38% 1%
UNLV (7-2) 18-13 18% 13% 0%
7 27 BYU (8-3) 23-8 76% 17% 0%
Air Force (6-3) 16-13 3% 3% 0%
Albany (3-6) 15-14 14% 14% 0%
Maine (1-8) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
16 65 Vermont (5-5) 18-11 36% 36% 0%
Binghamton (1-11) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (6-3) 19-10 16% 16% 0%
Boston U (3-6) 11-17 3% 3% 0%
Maryland BC (1-9) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (6-5) 16-13 9% 9% 0%
Northeastrn (6-3) 19-12 19% 16% 0%
Stony Brook (5-6) 18-13 22% 22% 0%
Illinois St (6-3) 19-11 17% 6% 0%
Drake (2-8) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
8 31 N Iowa (9-1) 24-6 73% 21% 0%
Missouri St (5-5) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
Bradley (4-6) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Creighton (9-3) 17-14 13% 2% 0%
3 10 Wichita St (8-1) 25-3 99% 56% 8%
S Illinois (7-5) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
11 42 Evansville (8-2) 23-7 47% 16% 0%
Indiana St (4-6) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Delaware St (5-6) 15-16 3% 3% 0%
NC A&T (1-12) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Hampton (5-6) 16-13 11% 11% 0%
Beth-Cook (3-9) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Morgan St (2-9) 11-19 2% 2% 0%
S Car State (3-8) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Howard (6-7) 15-16 3% 3% 0%
Maryland ES (5-8) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Coppin State (1-9) 6-23 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (8-5) 18-13 14% 14% 0%
Florida A&M (0-10) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (0-8) 4-25 0% 0% 0%
Geo Mason (3-6) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (2-7) 9-20 2% 2% 0%
James Mad (7-3) 17-14 5% 5% 0%
8 30 Old Dominion (9-1) 25-5 68% 32% 0%
15 62 Hofstra (7-2) 23-8 36% 30% 0%
5 18 VCU (7-3) 24-7 93% 35% 0%
NC-Wilmgton (4-3) 17-12 19% 15% 0%
Wm & Mary (6-3) 17-12 20% 16% 0%
Towson (7-3) 17-14 4% 3% 0%
Citadel (4-5) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Davidson (8-1) 20-9 39% 12% 0%
14 55 Wofford (9-2) 24-7 53% 45% 0%
Col Charlestn (5-5) 14-17 4% 4% 0%
Furman (2-7) 8-21 1% 1% 0%
GA Southern (6-2) 18-11 7% 7% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (4-7) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Elon (5-5) 17-14 9% 9% 0%
Chattanooga (6-6) 18-13 9% 9% 0%
W Carolina (3-8) 12-19 3% 3% 0%
E Tenn St (6-2) 19-10 19% 19% 0%
App State (3-5) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (7-4) 19-10 16% 16% 0%
Campbell (4-6) 14-17 2% 2% 0%
Fla Atlantic (5-3) 15-14 1% 1% 0%
Jacksonville (3-9) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (3-9) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (4-7) 12-17 3% 3% 0%
10 40 Georgia St (6-3) 25-6 79% 62% 0%
Gard-Webb (7-5) 16-15 3% 3% 0%
Central FL (6-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Mercer (6-5) 16-15 8% 8% 0%
Troy (4-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (6-4) 18-13 17% 5% 0%
Fordham (3-5) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (6-3) 20-9 36% 14% 0%
St Josephs (5-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (6-2) 19-10 9% 4% 0%
Temple (7-4) 18-13 17% 4% 0%
Duquesne (3-5) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
Dayton (7-2) 21-9 29% 9% 0%
6 22 Xavier (8-2) 22-9 82% 15% 1%
La Salle (5-5) 16-15 4% 2% 0%
Richmond (5-4) 18-13 14% 5% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (6-3) 20-9 31% 13% 0%
Alabama St (3-4) 17-10 0% 0% 0%
Southern (3-8) 15-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (2-10) 13-18 21% 21% 0%
Prairie View (1-9) 11-19 11% 11% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (2-9) 13-18 15% 15% 0%
16 64 TX Southern (1-8) 14-17 41% 41% 0%
Miss Val St (1-9) 5-26 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (2-7) 4-24 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (1-7) 9-19 5% 5% 0%
Alcorn State (1-8) 10-19 6% 6% 0%
Ohio (3-4) 11-16 3% 2% 0%
Marshall (4-6) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
Akron (6-4) 18-13 10% 8% 0%
12 48 Buffalo (7-2) 21-9 52% 27% 0%
Miami (OH) (3-7) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (7-2) 17-13 4% 3% 0%
N Illinois (4-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
E Michigan (8-2) 19-12 4% 3% 0%
Bowling Grn (6-2) 20-9 21% 13% 0%
Toledo (6-4) 20-11 33% 23% 0%
W Michigan (6-3) 18-12 12% 9% 0%
Ball State (3-5) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (8-1) 20-9 15% 10% 0%
Mt St Marys (3-5) 11-18 4% 4% 0%
16 67 St Fran (PA) (5-4) 18-11 28% 28% 0%
Central Conn (2-7) 11-20 4% 4% 0%
Quinnipiac (4-5) 15-14 5% 5% 0%
Rob Morris (3-7) 13-17 8% 8% 0%
F Dickinson (3-5) 12-17 4% 4% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (3-6) 12-17 8% 8% 0%
Monmouth (4-5) 17-14 10% 10% 0%
Sacred Hrt (5-4) 17-14 14% 14% 0%
Wagner (2-6) 11-18 5% 5% 0%
St Fran (NY) (3-7) 13-18 9% 9% 0%
Oakland (4-7) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
UMKC (4-7) 13-18 5% 5% 0%
Valparaiso (10-2) 23-8 24% 20% 0%
Oral Roberts (4-5) 15-15 12% 12% 0%
IUPUI (2-8) 8-22 2% 2% 0%
W Illinois (4-5) 10-17 2% 2% 0%
S Utah (2-6) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (2-10) 6-25 0% 0% 0%
Cal Poly (5-4) 13-15 5% 5% 0%
UC Davis (7-1) 15-14 2% 2% 0%
Lg Beach St (5-6) 17-15 32% 24% 0%
UC Riverside (5-4) 14-16 2% 2% 0%
14 57 UCSB (5-5) 20-10 47% 40% 0%
Utah State (6-4) 15-15 1% 1% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (3-8) 9-22 1% 1% 0%
UC Irvine (4-5) 17-12 21% 20% 0%
Idaho (5-5) 15-14 6% 6% 0%
CS Fullerton (5-7) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
Pacific (7-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
Lafayette (7-2) 20-9 23% 21% 0%
Army (7-2) 20-9 19% 19% 0%
Colgate (3-8) 13-18 7% 7% 0%
Navy (3-8) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (3-5) 13-15 6% 6% 0%
16 66 American (6-4) 20-10 35% 32% 0%
Bucknell (5-6) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Holy Cross (5-3) 16-12 10% 10% 0%
1 3 Wisconsin (10-1) 27-4 100% 44% 45%
Purdue (8-3) 19-12 31% 2% 0%
11 43 Iowa (8-3) 19-12 55% 3% 0%
Michigan (6-4) 14-16 4% 0% 0%
Penn State (10-1) 16-15 2% 0% 0%
3 9 Ohio State (9-1) 26-5 99% 29% 17%
5 20 Michigan St (8-3) 23-8 88% 10% 1%
Indiana (8-2) 18-13 29% 1% 0%
8 29 Illinois (8-3) 22-10 69% 4% 0%
10 38 Minnesota (9-2) 21-10 52% 3% 0%
Northwestern (6-4) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Marquette (6-4) 15-15 15% 2% 0%
Tulane (9-1) 17-13 2% 1% 0%
S Mississippi (5-4) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
DePaul (6-4) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (10-0) 18-13 6% 1% 0%
UAB (4-7) 12-19 3% 3% 0%
S Florida (5-5) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
13 51 Memphis (5-4) 20-11 44% 13% 0%
E Carolina (5-5) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
1 4 Louisville (9-0) 27-4 100% 25% 30%
Houston (5-2) 14-15 1% 0% 0%
8 32 Cincinnati (7-2) 22-9 67% 15% 0%
Charlotte (6-4) 19-12 12% 10% 0%
Saint Louis (7-4) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Wash State (4-6) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Oregon (7-3) 19-12 24% 3% 0%
USC (6-4) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
13 50 UCLA (8-3) 19-12 47% 6% 0%
Oregon St (8-2) 14-16 0% 0% 0%
12 47 Stanford (6-2) 18-12 45% 5% 0%
11 44 California (10-1) 21-10 49% 4% 0%
9 36 Washington (9-0) 21-9 51% 4% 0%
Arizona St (6-4) 16-15 10% 2% 0%
2 7 Arizona (12-0) 28-3 100% 43% 19%
Florida St (5-5) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
3 12 Virginia (10-0) 25-5 99% 12% 13%
Clemson (6-4) 14-16 1% 0% 0%
9 33 Maryland (10-1) 22-9 69% 3% 0%
12 46 NC State (9-2) 20-11 52% 1% 0%
1 2 Duke (10-0) 28-3 100% 43% 67%
Wake Forest (5-5) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
GA Tech (7-2) 15-15 6% 0% 0%
4 14 N Carolina (7-3) 23-8 99% 16% 5%
Fairfield (4-5) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
Manhattan (2-7) 13-16 5% 5% 0%
13 49 Iona (6-3) 24-7 55% 44% 0%
Rider (6-6) 16-15 5% 5% 0%
St Peters (4-7) 14-17 4% 4% 0%
Loyola-MD (3-6) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (5-4) 16-13 6% 6% 0%
Siena (3-6) 15-14 19% 19% 0%
Marist (1-9) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Niagara (1-7) 7-22 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 88.4%
Duke 67.3%
Wisconsin 44.8%
Louisville 30.5%
Texas 23.2%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Kentucky 77.2%
Gonzaga 74.5%
N Mex State 72.8%
NC Central 62.8%
Georgia St 61.7%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Washington 50.8%
NC State 51.6%
Minnesota 52.3%
California 49.3%
Georgia St 78.7%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Oklahoma St 55.1% 24.8%
Old Dominion 67.7% 15.6%
Minnesota 52.3% 13.8%
Cincinnati 66.8% 13.1%
Rhode Island 35.8% 12.3%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Miami (FL) 42.4% -29.5%
Geo Wshgtn 31.1% -16.4%
Stanford 44.8% -16.3%
Evansville 46.8% -15.2%
Mississippi 15.1% -15.0%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
SC Upstate 44.1% 9.5%
E Kentucky 38.4% 8.2%
Murray St 21.7% 8.0%
Sam Hous St 47.5% 7.8%
Texas 32.7% 7.5%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Fla Gulf Cst 32.0% -10.2%
Ste F Austin 46.1% -8.1%
Iowa State 11.8% -7.1%
NC Central 62.8% -6.5%
St Fran (NY) 9.2% -6.5%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Kentucky 88.4% 10.6%
Kansas 18.3% 5.9%
Texas 23.0% 5.3%
Gonzaga 17.0% 4.4%
Wisconsin 44.8% 3.0%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Duke 67.3% -8.8%
Iowa State 4.2% -6.8%
Ohio State 16.6% -4.6%
Utah 5.0% -3.9%
Wichita St 8.0% -2.7%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
E Carolina 13.7 -1.6
VCU 6.0 -1.2
St Josephs 13.8 -1.1
Murray St 13.5 -1.0
Oklahoma 5.7 -1.0

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Miss State 14.5 4.4
DePaul 16.0 3.8
Duquesne 14.5 2.2
Houston 12.6 1.9
S Florida 14.2 1.7

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