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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (3-2) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
South Dakota (0-5) 12-19 6% 6% 0%
16 68 Bryant (1-1) 15-14 20% 20% 0%
North Dakota (1-2) 13-17 4% 4% 0%
CS Bakersfld (1-4) 14-16 9% 9% 0%
Incarnate Word (3-0) 19-9 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (1-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (1-3) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (2-2) 15-13 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (1-2) 15-15 13% 13% 0%
Neb Omaha (2-1) 14-15 8% 8% 0%
Grand Canyon (2-2) 15-16 0% 0% 0%
16 63 SC Upstate (3-1) 22-9 44% 44% 0%
N Dakota St (2-2) 16-12 14% 14% 0%
Fla Gulf Cst (3-0) 18-10 38% 38% 0%
Longwood (2-3) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (1-3) 13-15 11% 11% 0%
Houston Bap (1-2) 11-17 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (2-1) 14-14 8% 8% 0%
N Florida (1-3) 14-16 13% 13% 0%
Central Ark (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (1-2) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
15 59 NC Central (1-2) 22-7 57% 57% 0%
Abilene Christian (1-2) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (1-2) 15-14 5% 5% 0%
Kennesaw St (1-4) 8-22 1% 1% 0%
Auburn (2-1) 13-17 3% 0% 0%
Alabama (3-0) 19-11 39% 2% 0%
LSU (3-1) 17-14 12% 0% 0%
Miss State (3-0) 14-16 1% 0% 0%
3 10 Arkansas (3-0) 25-6 87% 10% 7%
Mississippi (3-1) 17-13 20% 1% 0%
S Carolina (2-3) 14-16 6% 0% 0%
5 18 Florida (2-1) 21-8 80% 10% 3%
Georgia (3-1) 15-14 15% 1% 0%
Tennessee (1-1) 14-14 10% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (3-0) 15-15 3% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (5-0) 29-2 100% 71% 74%
15 61 Ste F Austin (1-2) 21-9 46% 46% 0%
Texas State (2-1) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
McNeese St (2-1) 11-17 1% 1% 0%
TX-Arlington (3-1) 18-12 11% 10% 0%
SE Louisiana (0-3) 12-19 4% 4% 0%
NW State (2-2) 14-15 3% 3% 0%
Sam Hous St (3-2) 23-8 36% 36% 0%
Nicholls St (0-2) 10-18 1% 1% 0%
Lamar (1-3) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (2-1) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (2-1) 20-9 22% 17% 0%
TX-Pan Am (3-0) 8-22 1% 1% 0%
TX A&M-CC (2-1) 17-12 9% 9% 0%
Savannah St (2-2) 13-17 3% 3% 0%
IPFW (2-1) 16-12 11% 11% 0%
Columbia (2-1) 19-9 21% 19% 0%
Cornell (2-4) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (1-3) 13-15 4% 4% 0%
Yale (4-1) 21-10 35% 31% 0%
Dartmouth (0-2) 12-16 2% 2% 0%
13 51 Harvard (2-1) 19-9 45% 42% 0%
U Penn (0-3) 6-22 0% 0% 0%
Brown (1-3) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
Loyola-Chi (2-1) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (3-1) 15-15 5% 5% 0%
Youngs St (3-3) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
9 34 Butler (3-0) 20-9 60% 15% 1%
WI-Milwkee (1-3) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (1-4) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
13 54 WI-Grn Bay (1-1) 19-8 50% 46% 0%
Cleveland St (2-2) 16-15 17% 16% 0%
Detroit (2-2) 15-15 10% 10% 0%
Radford (2-2) 17-13 7% 7% 0%
Charl South (2-1) 17-10 13% 13% 0%
Winthrop (2-1) 18-11 8% 8% 0%
15 60 Coastal Car (3-1) 22-7 48% 47% 0%
VA Military (2-2) 15-13 11% 11% 0%
Liberty (2-2) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
High Point (3-1) 18-12 8% 8% 0%
NC-Asheville (2-2) 16-13 7% 7% 0%
Hawaii (4-1) 14-13 4% 4% 0%
Fresno St (1-2) 11-18 2% 1% 0%
Nevada (2-2) 11-18 1% 1% 0%
3 11 S Methodist (2-2) 23-7 91% 34% 5%
14 58 LA Tech (4-1) 24-7 37% 26% 0%
Rice (1-2) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (2-0) 20-7 35% 20% 0%
Tulsa (2-1) 17-12 25% 5% 0%
Boise State (3-1) 20-10 26% 9% 0%
San Jose St (1-3) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
11 43 Georgetown (3-0) 17-10 51% 10% 0%
11 41 Providence (5-0) 20-11 58% 10% 0%
St Johns (3-0) 14-16 8% 2% 0%
Rutgers (2-1) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (2-1) 17-13 24% 1% 0%
5 17 Miami (FL) (5-0) 23-8 87% 4% 3%
9 35 Connecticut (3-1) 20-10 68% 32% 0%
VA Tech (2-1) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame (4-1) 22-9 42% 2% 1%
5 20 Villanova (3-0) 23-7 80% 26% 4%
7 25 W Virginia (5-0) 21-10 70% 7% 1%
10 39 Syracuse (3-1) 20-11 56% 2% 1%
Boston Col (2-3) 12-18 1% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (3-0) 17-13 22% 4% 0%
Pepperdine (3-0) 14-15 1% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (2-1) 12-16 1% 0% 0%
San Fransco (2-0) 18-10 21% 3% 0%
2 5 Gonzaga (4-0) 28-2 100% 75% 27%
Loyola Mymt (2-2) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (2-1) 14-14 7% 1% 0%
St Marys (4-0) 19-10 24% 2% 0%
Portland (3-0) 18-12 6% 1% 0%
Austin Peay (1-3) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
13 53 E Kentucky (3-0) 23-6 48% 41% 0%
TN Tech (2-1) 15-15 2% 2% 0%
TN Martin (2-1) 17-12 4% 4% 0%
E Illinois (1-3) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (2-1) 22-8 33% 28% 0%
SE Missouri (2-2) 14-15 2% 2% 0%
Morehead St (2-4) 16-15 4% 4% 0%
Jksnville St (1-3) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
TN State (2-2) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
Samford (2-3) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (2-1) 15-13 26% 1% 0%
11 42 Baylor (3-0) 19-11 54% 5% 1%
Missouri (2-1) 12-17 5% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (2-1) 14-16 2% 0% 0%
6 21 Kansas (1-1) 19-10 85% 14% 3%
10 38 Texas A&M (3-1) 20-10 52% 3% 1%
Colorado (2-1) 18-10 36% 5% 0%
4 14 Iowa State (2-0) 21-8 78% 17% 9%
Kansas St (2-1) 16-13 27% 3% 0%
1 3 Texas (4-0) 26-5 99% 41% 36%
Oklahoma St (4-0) 17-12 40% 4% 0%
9 36 Oklahoma (2-1) 17-11 59% 8% 1%
Florida Intl (3-0) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (1-2) 14-16 4% 3% 0%
AR Lit Rock (3-1) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Arkansas St (0-1) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
Middle Tenn (2-1) 14-16 2% 2% 0%
LA Lafayette (1-2) 17-14 6% 6% 0%
New Orleans (1-1) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
S Alabama (1-2) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
North Texas (3-1) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 66 Denver (2-1) 18-11 31% 29% 0%
14 55 N Mex State (1-3) 22-9 67% 65% 0%
Idaho State (0-3) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
N Arizona (1-3) 17-13 11% 11% 0%
Sac State (2-1) 14-15 4% 3% 0%
Weber State (1-3) 13-15 12% 12% 0%
Montana (1-2) 15-14 10% 9% 0%
Montana St (0-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (2-0) 14-14 5% 5% 0%
14 56 E Washingtn (3-1) 23-8 53% 46% 0%
Wyoming (3-0) 21-10 20% 8% 0%
6 23 Utah (2-1) 22-8 78% 17% 3%
9 33 Colorado St (3-0) 21-8 60% 18% 0%
New Mexico (3-2) 18-12 14% 7% 0%
4 16 San Diego St (3-0) 24-5 88% 44% 2%
UNLV (3-1) 16-15 12% 9% 0%
6 24 BYU (3-0) 23-6 79% 16% 1%
Air Force (3-1) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
Albany (1-2) 17-12 21% 21% 0%
Maine (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
16 64 Vermont (2-2) 19-10 39% 38% 0%
Binghamton (1-4) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (1-2) 12-16 4% 4% 0%
Boston U (1-2) 15-13 11% 10% 0%
Maryland BC (0-3) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Hartford (3-1) 14-14 6% 6% 0%
12 50 Northeastrn (4-0) 23-8 52% 37% 0%
Stony Brook (2-2) 19-12 27% 27% 0%
Illinois St (2-1) 18-12 13% 4% 0%
Drake (0-3) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
12 48 N Iowa (4-0) 21-8 46% 14% 0%
Missouri St (2-1) 14-14 4% 2% 0%
Bradley (1-2) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
11 45 Creighton (4-0) 20-10 48% 10% 0%
3 9 Wichita St (3-0) 25-3 95% 53% 15%
S Illinois (2-3) 15-16 1% 1% 0%
7 27 Evansville (2-0) 23-5 66% 24% 0%
Indiana St (2-1) 16-13 4% 2% 0%
Delaware St (2-2) 15-16 7% 7% 0%
NC A&T (1-3) 9-21 1% 1% 0%
Hampton (1-3) 17-12 15% 15% 0%
Beth-Cook (2-3) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Morgan St (0-4) 10-19 4% 4% 0%
S Car State (0-3) 7-24 1% 1% 0%
Howard (2-3) 15-16 5% 5% 0%
Maryland ES (1-4) 9-21 1% 1% 0%
Coppin State (0-4) 5-23 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (2-2) 14-16 6% 6% 0%
Florida A&M (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (0-3) 7-22 1% 1% 0%
Geo Mason (1-4) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (1-4) 11-17 4% 4% 0%
James Mad (2-1) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Old Dominion (3-1) 23-7 39% 23% 0%
Hofstra (3-1) 19-12 11% 11% 0%
4 13 VCU (3-0) 25-5 92% 43% 3%
NC-Wilmgton (2-1) 16-13 16% 13% 0%
Wm & Mary (3-1) 15-14 12% 10% 0%
Towson (4-1) 17-14 5% 5% 0%
Citadel (2-2) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Davidson (2-1) 16-13 9% 3% 0%
13 52 Wofford (4-1) 23-7 57% 50% 0%
Col Charlestn (2-3) 16-15 11% 11% 0%
Furman (1-2) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (2-1) 17-11 9% 8% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (1-4) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Elon (1-2) 14-15 5% 5% 0%
Chattanooga (1-3) 15-15 4% 4% 0%
W Carolina (1-2) 13-18 4% 4% 0%
E Tenn St (2-1) 17-12 17% 17% 0%
App State (1-2) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (3-1) 20-9 21% 17% 0%
Campbell (1-2) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Fla Atlantic (1-3) 12-17 1% 1% 0%
Jacksonville (1-3) 5-25 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (2-2) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Lipscomb (2-2) 12-17 4% 4% 0%
12 46 Georgia St (1-2) 24-7 65% 52% 0%
Gard-Webb (2-2) 17-12 9% 9% 0%
Central FL (3-0) 14-15 1% 0% 0%
Mercer (2-2) 17-12 13% 12% 0%
Troy (1-2) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
U Mass (4-1) 19-12 32% 6% 0%
Fordham (1-3) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (3-0) 16-11 15% 4% 0%
St Josephs (2-2) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (2-1) 16-13 6% 3% 0%
Temple (2-2) 17-14 15% 3% 0%
Duquesne (2-0) 17-12 5% 2% 0%
Dayton (3-1) 20-10 34% 8% 0%
6 22 Xavier (3-0) 21-8 77% 19% 3%
La Salle (3-0) 17-13 11% 3% 0%
Richmond (2-1) 20-11 36% 9% 0%
11 44 Geo Wshgtn (2-1) 21-8 48% 17% 0%
Alabama St (1-1) 19-8 0% 0% 0%
Southern (1-3) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (1-3) 13-18 15% 15% 0%
Prairie View (0-4) 11-18 16% 16% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (1-4) 12-19 14% 14% 0%
16 65 TX Southern (0-4) 13-18 36% 36% 0%
Miss Val St (0-3) 4-26 1% 1% 0%
Grambling St (1-2) 3-25 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (1-2) 10-18 8% 8% 0%
Alcorn State (0-4) 11-18 10% 10% 0%
Ohio (1-1) 14-13 12% 6% 0%
Marshall (3-1) 16-15 5% 4% 0%
Akron (3-1) 20-11 21% 12% 0%
Buffalo (2-1) 19-11 33% 16% 0%
Miami (OH) (2-1) 11-19 1% 1% 0%
Kent State (4-1) 18-12 8% 6% 0%
N Illinois (2-0) 14-15 3% 2% 0%
E Michigan (5-0) 16-15 2% 1% 0%
Bowling Grn (2-0) 19-10 27% 15% 0%
15 62 Toledo (1-2) 19-11 35% 19% 0%
W Michigan (3-0) 18-10 25% 14% 0%
Ball State (1-2) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
Central Mich (4-0) 19-10 13% 8% 0%
Mt St Marys (1-2) 12-17 7% 7% 0%
St Fran (PA) (2-2) 14-15 14% 14% 0%
Central Conn (0-5) 10-21 4% 4% 0%
Quinnipiac (2-1) 18-11 12% 10% 0%
Rob Morris (1-3) 13-16 10% 10% 0%
F Dickinson (2-1) 11-18 5% 5% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (0-1) 13-16 9% 9% 0%
Monmouth (2-2) 16-15 6% 6% 0%
Sacred Hrt (1-2) 11-19 5% 5% 0%
Wagner (1-3) 12-17 7% 7% 0%
St Fran (NY) (0-3) 16-14 19% 19% 0%
Oakland (0-3) 11-20 5% 5% 0%
UMKC (2-3) 12-19 4% 4% 0%
Valparaiso (4-1) 20-11 17% 16% 0%
Oral Roberts (1-2) 15-15 13% 12% 0%
IUPUI (2-2) 9-21 3% 3% 0%
W Illinois (1-2) 10-17 4% 4% 0%
S Utah (0-3) 4-24 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (2-2) 9-22 2% 2% 0%
Cal Poly (2-1) 12-16 5% 5% 0%
UC Davis (3-0) 11-18 1% 1% 0%
Lg Beach St (2-3) 16-14 27% 20% 0%
UC Riverside (2-2) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
UCSB (1-2) 18-10 36% 28% 0%
Utah State (3-1) 16-14 3% 2% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (2-3) 14-17 3% 3% 0%
14 57 UC Irvine (2-2) 21-8 44% 36% 0%
Idaho (2-1) 13-16 3% 3% 0%
CS Fullerton (1-2) 13-18 3% 3% 0%
Pacific (2-2) 9-19 0% 0% 0%
16 67 Lafayette (3-1) 20-9 27% 24% 0%
Army (4-0) 20-9 17% 16% 0%
Colgate (1-2) 14-17 7% 6% 0%
Navy (1-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (0-4) 10-18 3% 3% 0%
American (3-2) 17-13 18% 16% 0%
Bucknell (1-3) 13-17 5% 5% 0%
Holy Cross (3-0) 18-10 24% 20% 0%
1 4 Wisconsin (4-0) 25-4 100% 39% 27%
12 47 Purdue (3-0) 19-10 47% 3% 0%
8 30 Iowa (2-2) 20-11 65% 6% 2%
Michigan (3-0) 16-13 22% 1% 0%
Penn State (4-1) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
2 6 Ohio State (3-0) 26-5 96% 25% 27%
8 29 Michigan St (2-1) 20-9 61% 5% 2%
Indiana (4-0) 20-11 41% 2% 0%
4 15 Illinois (3-0) 23-8 84% 10% 6%
Minnesota (3-1) 18-12 28% 2% 0%
Northwestern (4-0) 13-17 1% 0% 0%
Marquette (1-2) 14-14 13% 3% 0%
Tulane (2-1) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
S Mississippi (2-1) 17-12 8% 6% 0%
DePaul (2-0) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (3-0) 15-15 1% 0% 0%
UAB (2-2) 10-19 2% 2% 0%
S Florida (3-1) 12-19 1% 0% 0%
8 31 Memphis (0-1) 21-9 55% 15% 2%
E Carolina (2-1) 12-17 1% 0% 0%
2 7 Louisville (3-0) 26-5 98% 20% 27%
Houston (2-0) 19-11 6% 2% 0%
Cincinnati (3-0) 18-12 30% 6% 0%
Charlotte (3-1) 19-12 17% 12% 0%
Saint Louis (2-1) 17-13 7% 2% 0%
Wash State (1-2) 8-20 0% 0% 0%
10 40 Oregon (3-0) 21-9 48% 6% 1%
USC (2-3) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
8 32 UCLA (4-0) 20-9 65% 11% 1%
Oregon St (3-0) 11-18 0% 0% 0%
7 28 Stanford (3-1) 20-10 68% 10% 1%
10 37 California (3-1) 21-10 56% 8% 1%
Washington (3-0) 16-12 12% 2% 0%
Arizona St (3-0) 16-14 15% 2% 0%
2 8 Arizona (3-0) 25-4 97% 40% 19%
Florida St (1-3) 13-18 2% 0% 0%
5 19 Virginia (4-0) 21-8 84% 5% 2%
Clemson (2-2) 16-14 9% 0% 0%
7 26 Maryland (3-0) 22-8 68% 5% 3%
NC State (4-0) 18-13 35% 1% 0%
1 2 Duke (5-0) 28-3 100% 51% 63%
Wake Forest (2-2) 12-19 2% 0% 0%
GA Tech (3-0) 13-15 7% 0% 0%
3 12 N Carolina (3-0) 22-7 95% 14% 7%
Fairfield (2-3) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Manhattan (1-3) 15-14 8% 8% 0%
12 49 Iona (3-1) 23-8 52% 34% 0%
Rider (2-1) 15-14 5% 4% 0%
St Peters (0-4) 11-19 2% 2% 0%
Loyola-MD (2-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (2-1) 15-14 7% 6% 0%
Siena (1-2) 18-11 30% 28% 0%
Marist (0-2) 9-19 2% 1% 0%
Niagara (1-2) 7-22 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 74.0%
Duke 62.9%
Texas 36.4%
Ohio State 28.2%
Louisville 27.4%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Gonzaga 75.4%
Kentucky 70.8%
N Mex State 64.8%
NC Central 56.8%
Wichita St 52.6%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Georgetown 51.2%
Texas A&M 52.4%
Memphis 55.5%
Oregon 48.2%
Purdue 47.0%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Miami (FL) 87.1% 57.7%
Providence 57.7% 44.2%
E Kentucky 48.5% 37.4%
Xavier 77.4% 30.1%
Stanford 68.2% 28.6%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Clemson 8.5% -39.2%
Kansas St 27.2% -32.8%
Florida St 2.3% -31.7%
St Johns 8.0% -26.5%
Pittsburgh 23.8% -18.5%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
E Kentucky 41.2% 30.6%
Kentucky 70.8% 24.1%
E Washingtn 46.2% 20.4%
SC Upstate 44.3% 18.0%
Northeastrn 37.1% 17.2%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Lipscomb 4.0% -18.5%
Florida 10.1% -17.3%
Col Charlestn 11.2% -13.4%
Weber State 12.3% -13.2%
Kansas 14.3% -12.3%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Kentucky 74.0% 30.3%
Texas 36.0% 19.7%
Gonzaga 27.1% 13.2%
Ohio State 27.1% 12.3%
Wichita St 15.3% 3.2%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Florida 3.0% -17.7%
Villanova 4.1% -10.0%
Kansas 3.3% -9.9%
Duke 62.9% -6.0%
S Methodist 4.8% -5.8%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Miami (FL) 6.2 -2.8
E Kentucky 11.8 -2.1
Northeastrn 11.0 -2.1
Texas 2.7 -1.7
Wofford 12.5 -1.4

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Nevada 13.9 3.1
USC 13.0 2.9
Morehead St 15.0 2.2
S Illinois 14.6 2.2
Florida St 10.3 2.1

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