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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Projected Seed Current & Projected Record Bracketology Odds
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid 1 Seed
Massachusetts Lowell (4-2) 14-15 2% 2% 0%
South Dakota (1-5) 12-19 6% 6% 0%
Bryant (1-2) 13-16 15% 15% 0%
North Dakota (2-2) 15-15 4% 4% 0%
CS Bakersfld (1-4) 14-16 8% 8% 0%
Incarnate Word (4-0) 19-9 0% 0% 0%
Presbyterian (2-4) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
NJIT (1-4) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
N Kentucky (2-3) 14-14 0% 0% 0%
S Dakota St (2-2) 17-13 22% 22% 0%
Neb Omaha (2-2) 15-14 11% 11% 0%
Grand Canyon (2-3) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
SC Upstate (4-1) 22-9 34% 34% 0%
N Dakota St (3-2) 14-14 9% 9% 0%
15 60 Fla Gulf Cst (5-1) 20-10 47% 46% 0%
Longwood (2-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Seattle (1-3) 13-15 10% 10% 0%
Houston Bap (1-2) 11-17 0% 0% 0%
Utah Val St (3-1) 15-13 7% 7% 0%
N Florida (3-3) 17-14 15% 15% 0%
Central Ark (0-5) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
SIU Edward (1-3) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
15 59 NC Central (1-3) 21-8 59% 59% 0%
Abilene Christian (2-2) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
N Colorado (2-2) 16-13 5% 5% 0%
Kennesaw St (2-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Auburn (3-2) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
13 53 Alabama (4-1) 20-11 42% 1% 0%
LSU (3-2) 16-15 8% 0% 0%
Miss State (4-0) 13-17 0% 0% 0%
3 11 Arkansas (4-0) 26-5 92% 10% 11%
Mississippi (3-1) 17-13 20% 1% 0%
S Carolina (3-3) 14-16 8% 0% 0%
9 33 Florida (3-2) 21-10 66% 5% 1%
Georgia (3-2) 16-14 18% 1% 0%
Tennessee (2-1) 15-14 10% 0% 0%
Vanderbilt (4-0) 15-15 3% 0% 0%
1 1 Kentucky (6-0) 29-2 100% 77% 81%
16 63 Ste F Austin (2-3) 22-9 49% 48% 0%
Texas State (2-1) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
McNeese St (2-1) 11-17 1% 1% 0%
TX-Arlington (3-2) 17-13 7% 7% 0%
SE Louisiana (1-4) 13-18 5% 5% 0%
NW State (2-3) 14-15 4% 4% 0%
Sam Hous St (3-2) 23-8 35% 35% 0%
Nicholls St (0-3) 9-19 1% 1% 0%
Lamar (2-3) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
TX-San Ant (2-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
LA Monroe (2-3) 17-13 7% 7% 0%
TX-Pan Am (3-1) 8-22 0% 0% 0%
TX A&M-CC (2-2) 16-13 6% 6% 0%
Savannah St (2-3) 11-19 2% 2% 0%
IPFW (3-1) 16-12 13% 13% 0%
Columbia (3-1) 18-10 16% 14% 0%
Cornell (3-4) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
Princeton (1-4) 13-16 3% 3% 0%
Yale (5-1) 22-9 40% 34% 0%
Dartmouth (0-2) 12-16 2% 2% 0%
13 51 Harvard (3-1) 20-8 50% 46% 0%
U Penn (0-4) 7-21 0% 0% 0%
Brown (1-5) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Loyola-Chi (3-1) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
Wright State (3-2) 14-16 3% 2% 0%
Youngs St (4-3) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
8 29 Butler (4-1) 21-10 70% 14% 1%
WI-Milwkee (2-4) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
IL-Chicago (2-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
11 41 WI-Grn Bay (4-1) 22-7 71% 58% 0%
Cleveland St (2-3) 17-14 19% 17% 0%
Detroit (4-2) 18-13 10% 9% 0%
Radford (2-3) 17-13 6% 6% 0%
Charl South (3-1) 16-11 12% 12% 0%
Winthrop (2-2) 17-12 7% 7% 0%
15 62 Coastal Car (4-2) 22-8 48% 48% 0%
VA Military (2-3) 14-15 7% 7% 0%
Liberty (2-4) 13-18 1% 1% 0%
High Point (4-1) 17-13 7% 6% 0%
NC-Asheville (2-3) 16-13 9% 9% 0%
Hawaii (6-2) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Fresno St (1-5) 10-21 1% 1% 0%
Nevada (2-3) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
6 22 S Methodist (3-3) 22-8 85% 30% 1%
14 58 LA Tech (4-1) 24-7 37% 26% 0%
Rice (1-3) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
TX El Paso (3-0) 20-8 34% 20% 0%
Tulsa (3-2) 18-12 27% 7% 0%
Boise State (4-1) 20-10 23% 7% 0%
San Jose St (1-4) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
9 35 Georgetown (4-1) 19-10 66% 10% 1%
11 44 Providence (5-0) 20-11 52% 7% 0%
St Johns (4-0) 16-15 15% 2% 0%
Rutgers (2-2) 7-23 0% 0% 0%
Pittsburgh (4-2) 18-14 17% 0% 0%
5 19 Miami (FL) (6-0) 23-8 86% 3% 2%
9 34 Connecticut (3-1) 20-10 70% 36% 0%
VA Tech (3-2) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
Notre Dame (5-1) 21-10 30% 1% 0%
3 10 Villanova (5-0) 25-6 94% 33% 13%
6 24 W Virginia (6-0) 22-9 77% 8% 2%
10 40 Syracuse (4-1) 20-11 59% 2% 1%
Boston Col (2-3) 12-18 1% 0% 0%
Seton Hall (4-0) 17-13 21% 3% 0%
Pepperdine (3-1) 15-14 1% 0% 0%
Santa Clara (2-3) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
San Fransco (3-2) 18-12 8% 2% 0%
1 3 Gonzaga (5-0) 29-2 100% 76% 33%
Loyola Mymt (3-2) 8-20 0% 0% 0%
San Diego (3-2) 15-14 5% 1% 0%
St Marys (4-0) 19-10 23% 3% 0%
Portland (3-0) 18-12 6% 1% 0%
Austin Peay (2-4) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
14 57 E Kentucky (4-0) 22-7 43% 37% 0%
TN Tech (3-2) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
TN Martin (3-1) 18-11 7% 6% 0%
E Illinois (1-4) 10-18 0% 0% 0%
Murray St (2-2) 21-9 25% 23% 0%
SE Missouri (2-3) 14-15 3% 3% 0%
Morehead St (3-4) 17-14 6% 6% 0%
Jksnville St (2-3) 9-22 0% 0% 0%
TN State (2-3) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Samford (2-4) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Nebraska (3-1) 14-14 22% 1% 0%
7 26 Baylor (5-0) 21-10 75% 8% 2%
Missouri (3-3) 11-20 0% 0% 0%
Texas Tech (3-1) 13-17 1% 0% 0%
4 16 Kansas (3-1) 21-9 91% 16% 5%
9 36 Texas A&M (3-1) 20-10 54% 3% 1%
Colorado (3-1) 18-10 33% 5% 0%
7 27 Iowa State (3-1) 20-10 73% 12% 5%
Kansas St (3-3) 16-15 18% 2% 0%
2 5 Texas (5-0) 25-6 99% 37% 28%
12 48 Oklahoma St (6-0) 19-11 48% 5% 0%
6 21 Oklahoma (4-1) 20-10 80% 12% 2%
Florida Intl (3-2) 12-19 0% 0% 0%
W Kentucky (2-3) 14-16 3% 3% 0%
AR Lit Rock (3-1) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Arkansas St (0-2) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Middle Tenn (3-1) 15-15 3% 3% 0%
LA Lafayette (2-3) 19-12 10% 10% 0%
New Orleans (1-1) 11-16 1% 1% 0%
S Alabama (1-2) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
North Texas (4-1) 12-18 0% 0% 0%
16 66 Denver (2-2) 17-12 26% 25% 0%
14 55 N Mex State (3-3) 23-8 73% 71% 0%
Idaho State (0-4) 9-21 1% 1% 0%
N Arizona (1-4) 16-14 7% 7% 0%
Sac State (3-1) 15-14 3% 3% 0%
Weber State (2-3) 14-14 11% 11% 0%
Montana (2-2) 15-14 7% 7% 0%
Montana St (0-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Portland St (4-0) 16-12 6% 6% 0%
13 50 E Washingtn (5-1) 25-6 66% 54% 0%
Wyoming (5-0) 21-10 14% 6% 0%
5 20 Utah (3-1) 22-8 84% 22% 3%
8 31 Colorado St (4-0) 23-7 64% 19% 0%
New Mexico (3-2) 18-12 12% 6% 0%
3 12 San Diego St (5-1) 26-5 96% 51% 3%
UNLV (3-1) 16-15 12% 8% 0%
8 32 BYU (4-2) 23-8 73% 15% 0%
Air Force (3-2) 14-15 1% 1% 0%
Albany (2-2) 17-12 19% 19% 0%
Maine (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
15 61 Vermont (3-2) 20-9 41% 41% 0%
Binghamton (1-5) 7-24 0% 0% 0%
N Hampshire (2-2) 14-14 3% 3% 0%
Boston U (1-3) 14-14 9% 8% 0%
Maryland BC (0-4) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Hartford (4-1) 16-13 7% 7% 0%
16 65 Northeastrn (4-1) 21-10 34% 27% 0%
Stony Brook (4-2) 20-11 28% 28% 0%
Illinois St (2-2) 17-13 10% 4% 0%
Drake (1-3) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
8 30 N Iowa (6-0) 24-6 73% 23% 0%
Missouri St (2-2) 14-15 2% 1% 0%
Bradley (2-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
11 43 Creighton (5-0) 20-10 48% 8% 0%
2 8 Wichita St (3-0) 25-3 95% 52% 17%
S Illinois (2-3) 14-17 1% 0% 0%
10 37 Evansville (4-1) 24-6 58% 18% 0%
Indiana St (3-2) 14-16 1% 1% 0%
Delaware St (2-3) 13-18 3% 3% 0%
NC A&T (1-4) 10-20 2% 2% 0%
Hampton (1-5) 15-14 12% 12% 0%
Beth-Cook (2-4) 11-20 1% 1% 0%
Morgan St (1-5) 11-19 5% 5% 0%
S Car State (1-3) 10-21 1% 1% 0%
Howard (3-3) 16-15 8% 8% 0%
Maryland ES (1-6) 9-22 1% 1% 0%
Coppin State (0-4) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
Norfolk St (2-3) 15-15 7% 7% 0%
Florida A&M (0-6) 5-24 0% 0% 0%
Delaware (0-4) 6-23 1% 1% 0%
Geo Mason (1-4) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
Drexel (1-4) 10-18 5% 5% 0%
James Mad (4-1) 14-17 2% 2% 0%
Old Dominion (4-1) 23-7 39% 25% 0%
Hofstra (3-2) 18-13 12% 11% 0%
5 18 VCU (4-1) 24-7 89% 37% 1%
NC-Wilmgton (2-1) 16-13 16% 13% 0%
Wm & Mary (4-1) 17-12 22% 17% 0%
Towson (5-1) 18-13 9% 8% 0%
Citadel (2-3) 10-19 1% 1% 0%
Davidson (3-1) 18-11 22% 7% 0%
14 56 Wofford (5-1) 23-7 55% 47% 0%
Col Charlestn (2-3) 16-15 12% 12% 0%
Furman (1-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
GA Southern (3-1) 17-11 9% 9% 0%
NC-Grnsboro (1-4) 8-23 0% 0% 0%
Elon (2-3) 13-17 4% 4% 0%
Chattanooga (3-3) 18-13 8% 8% 0%
W Carolina (3-3) 14-17 4% 4% 0%
E Tenn St (3-1) 18-11 21% 20% 0%
App State (2-2) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Belmont (5-1) 20-9 27% 22% 0%
Campbell (1-3) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
Fla Atlantic (1-3) 13-16 1% 1% 0%
Jacksonville (2-4) 6-24 0% 0% 0%
Stetson (2-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lipscomb (2-3) 12-17 4% 4% 0%
12 46 Georgia St (4-2) 25-6 73% 61% 0%
Gard-Webb (2-3) 17-13 10% 10% 0%
Central FL (3-1) 12-17 0% 0% 0%
Mercer (3-2) 17-13 13% 12% 0%
Troy (1-3) 10-19 0% 0% 0%
12 49 U Mass (5-1) 21-10 45% 11% 0%
Fordham (1-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Rhode Island (3-1) 17-11 12% 4% 0%
St Josephs (3-3) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
St Bonavent (3-1) 16-13 4% 2% 0%
Temple (3-2) 17-14 12% 3% 0%
Duquesne (2-0) 17-12 6% 2% 0%
Dayton (3-1) 20-10 33% 9% 0%
4 15 Xavier (5-0) 23-7 89% 21% 5%
La Salle (4-0) 17-13 12% 3% 0%
Richmond (2-2) 19-12 28% 8% 0%
Geo Wshgtn (3-1) 21-8 40% 16% 0%
Alabama St (1-2) 17-10 0% 0% 0%
Southern (1-4) 14-17 0% 0% 0%
Jackson St (1-4) 13-18 18% 18% 0%
Prairie View (0-6) 11-19 15% 15% 0%
Ark Pine Bl (1-5) 12-19 14% 14% 0%
16 64 TX Southern (0-5) 14-17 39% 39% 0%
Miss Val St (0-5) 3-27 0% 0% 0%
Grambling St (1-4) 3-25 0% 0% 0%
Alab A&M (1-3) 9-19 5% 5% 0%
Alcorn State (1-4) 11-18 8% 8% 0%
Ohio (2-1) 14-13 11% 6% 0%
Marshall (3-2) 15-16 2% 2% 0%
Akron (3-2) 20-11 17% 11% 0%
13 54 Buffalo (3-1) 21-9 45% 22% 0%
Miami (OH) (2-3) 10-21 0% 0% 0%
Kent State (4-1) 18-12 8% 6% 0%
N Illinois (2-1) 14-15 2% 2% 0%
E Michigan (6-0) 16-15 2% 2% 0%
Bowling Grn (3-0) 19-10 24% 14% 0%
Toledo (2-3) 19-12 28% 19% 0%
W Michigan (3-2) 17-12 11% 8% 0%
Ball State (2-2) 12-17 1% 1% 0%
Central Mich (4-0) 19-10 13% 9% 0%
Mt St Marys (1-3) 10-19 4% 4% 0%
St Fran (PA) (2-3) 14-15 14% 14% 0%
Central Conn (0-5) 10-21 4% 4% 0%
Quinnipiac (2-2) 16-13 6% 6% 0%
Rob Morris (2-4) 15-15 15% 15% 0%
F Dickinson (2-2) 12-17 6% 6% 0%
LIU-Brooklyn (0-3) 12-17 8% 8% 0%
Monmouth (2-2) 16-15 6% 5% 0%
Sacred Hrt (1-3) 11-19 6% 6% 0%
Wagner (1-3) 12-17 8% 8% 0%
16 68 St Fran (NY) (0-4) 16-14 20% 20% 0%
Oakland (1-5) 9-22 2% 2% 0%
UMKC (2-4) 11-20 3% 3% 0%
Valparaiso (4-1) 19-12 12% 11% 0%
Oral Roberts (2-3) 13-17 8% 8% 0%
IUPUI (2-3) 9-21 3% 3% 0%
W Illinois (1-3) 9-18 2% 2% 0%
S Utah (0-4) 4-24 0% 0% 0%
Chicago St (2-5) 8-23 1% 1% 0%
Cal Poly (2-2) 11-17 3% 3% 0%
UC Davis (4-0) 13-16 1% 1% 0%
Lg Beach St (3-3) 17-14 33% 22% 0%
UC Riverside (2-3) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
12 45 UCSB (2-2) 21-8 54% 38% 0%
Utah State (3-2) 15-15 1% 1% 0%
Cal St Nrdge (2-4) 12-19 1% 1% 0%
UC Irvine (2-2) 21-8 39% 30% 0%
Idaho (2-2) 13-16 2% 2% 0%
CS Fullerton (2-3) 13-18 2% 2% 0%
Pacific (3-2) 9-20 0% 0% 0%
Lafayette (3-2) 19-10 20% 18% 0%
Army (5-0) 20-9 21% 20% 0%
Colgate (1-4) 13-18 5% 5% 0%
Navy (2-4) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
Lehigh (1-4) 12-16 5% 5% 0%
American (4-2) 18-12 21% 19% 0%
Bucknell (2-4) 12-19 2% 2% 0%
16 67 Holy Cross (3-0) 18-10 25% 22% 0%
1 4 Wisconsin (6-0) 27-4 100% 38% 30%
12 47 Purdue (5-1) 20-11 43% 3% 0%
11 42 Iowa (4-2) 20-11 54% 5% 0%
Michigan (4-1) 17-13 27% 1% 0%
Penn State (5-1) 14-17 1% 0% 0%
2 7 Ohio State (4-0) 26-5 95% 23% 21%
7 25 Michigan St (4-1) 22-8 79% 9% 2%
Indiana (4-1) 18-13 24% 1% 0%
4 14 Illinois (5-0) 25-7 88% 12% 7%
Minnesota (3-2) 17-14 16% 1% 0%
Northwestern (5-1) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
Marquette (3-2) 13-16 8% 1% 0%
Tulane (3-1) 15-15 2% 1% 0%
S Mississippi (3-1) 16-13 5% 4% 0%
DePaul (2-1) 7-22 0% 0% 0%
TX Christian (5-0) 17-13 4% 1% 0%
UAB (2-4) 11-20 2% 2% 0%
S Florida (4-1) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
Memphis (1-2) 20-11 40% 11% 0%
E Carolina (3-3) 13-18 0% 0% 0%
2 6 Louisville (5-0) 26-5 99% 24% 27%
Houston (2-1) 18-12 4% 2% 0%
Cincinnati (4-0) 19-11 38% 8% 0%
Charlotte (3-2) 19-12 17% 13% 0%
Saint Louis (3-1) 15-15 3% 1% 0%
Wash State (1-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Oregon (3-2) 19-12 26% 4% 0%
USC (3-3) 9-21 0% 0% 0%
UCLA (4-2) 19-12 39% 6% 0%
Oregon St (3-2) 11-19 0% 0% 0%
7 28 Stanford (4-1) 21-9 76% 14% 1%
10 39 California (4-1) 22-9 58% 9% 0%
Washington (4-0) 17-12 16% 2% 0%
Arizona St (3-2) 16-15 10% 2% 0%
3 9 Arizona (6-0) 26-5 98% 36% 15%
Florida St (2-3) 13-18 1% 0% 0%
5 17 Virginia (5-0) 22-7 91% 7% 3%
Clemson (3-2) 16-14 7% 0% 0%
6 23 Maryland (5-0) 23-8 79% 6% 4%
13 52 NC State (5-0) 19-12 43% 1% 0%
1 2 Duke (6-0) 28-3 100% 49% 60%
Wake Forest (4-2) 14-17 4% 0% 0%
GA Tech (3-1) 13-16 4% 0% 0%
4 13 N Carolina (4-1) 23-8 97% 13% 6%
Fairfield (2-3) 10-20 0% 0% 0%
Manhattan (1-3) 15-14 6% 6% 0%
10 38 Iona (4-1) 25-6 76% 49% 0%
Rider (2-3) 13-17 2% 2% 0%
St Peters (1-4) 13-17 3% 3% 0%
Loyola-MD (2-3) 8-21 0% 0% 0%
Canisius (2-2) 14-15 4% 4% 0%
Siena (1-2) 18-11 26% 25% 0%
Marist (1-4) 10-20 1% 1% 0%
Niagara (1-2) 8-21 0% 0% 0%

Most Likely 1 Seeds

Team 1-Seed%
Kentucky 81.1%
Duke 60.2%
Gonzaga 33.2%
Wisconsin 29.8%
Texas 28.5%

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Most Likely Auto Bids

Team Auto%
Kentucky 77.0%
Gonzaga 76.1%
N Mex State 70.7%
Georgia St 60.6%
NC Central 58.9%

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Current Bubble Teams

Team NCAA Bid%
Providence 51.9%
Evansville 57.7%
Oklahoma St 48.1%
Texas A&M 53.9%
Iowa 54.5%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Iona 75.6% 40.5%
Stanford 75.6% 34.9%
Butler 70.0% 29.2%
Utah 84.3% 27.1%
Michigan St 79.0% 26.5%

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Odds To Get An NCAA Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Indiana 24.2% -35.9%
Colorado 33.0% -30.2%
Pittsburgh 16.9% -27.0%
UCLA 39.1% -25.3%
Marquette 7.8% -25.1%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Iona 49.2% 25.0%
Kentucky 77.0% 13.3%
Fla Gulf Cst 46.0% 13.2%
WI-Grn Bay 57.9% 13.1%
Utah 21.6% 12.6%

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Odds To Get An Auto-Bid - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
VA Military 7.4% -12.8%
SC Upstate 34.4% -12.3%
Florida 5.5% -9.9%
UC Irvine 30.0% -9.2%
Murray St 22.6% -8.6%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
Villanova 13.2% 8.7%
Kentucky 81.1% 7.9%
Ohio State 20.9% 7.8%
Wisconsin 29.7% 4.8%
Gonzaga 33.1% 4.3%

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Odds To Get A 1 Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Louisville 26.8% -13.4%
Florida 0.6% -6.9%
S Methodist 1.1% -4.4%
Iowa State 4.8% -3.3%
Iowa 0.3% -2.8%

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Gains

Team Now Change
WI-Grn Bay 9.6 -2.5
Iona 9.5 -2.0
UCSB 9.8 -1.8
Villanova 4.4 -1.5
Miami (FL) 6.3 -1.4

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Projected Avg. Seed - 1 Week Drops

Team Now Change
Oregon St 14.8 5.1
Central FL 14.3 2.9
Florida 7.7 2.5
W Michigan 12.5 2.4
Saint Louis 10.4 2.3

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