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Tarleton St at UT Arlington: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jan 21, 2026 8:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: UT Arlington by 2.5, Total Points: 142.5

Matchup Menu: TST @ UTA

More Games From Jan 21, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST UTA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TST UTA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 48.6
Field Goal % 41.7% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 31.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 12.6 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 24.0% 29.4%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 29.5
Free Throw % 73.7% 72.1%
Ball Control TST UTA
Rebounds 28.5 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.3 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 12.1
Turnovers 12.0 15.5
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.5
Steals 8.2 6.5
Fouls 18.4 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST UTA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TST UTA
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 37.4%
3 Point Attempt 15.5% 20.1%
Player Fouled 25.9% 25.8%
Turnover 16.8% 21.7%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST UTA
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 38.6%