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Miss Val St vs. Cal Poly

  Saturday Nov 26, 2011 - 5:00 pm - Las Vegas, NV (Neutral Site) | Odds: Cal Poly SLO by 6.5, Total Points: 127 | Team Pages: MVST | CPLY

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVST CPLY
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting MVST CPLY
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 60.0
Field Goal % 36.9% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 14.0 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 33.2%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 18.5
Free Throw % 65.8% 68.4%

Ball Control MVST CPLY
Rebounds 29.8 43.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.7 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 14.3
Turnovers 11.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 0.9 4.3
Steals 4.0 6.0
Fouls 13.4 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVST CPLY
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with MVST CPLY
2 Point Attempt 54.4% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 17.9% 25.3%
Player Fouled 19.4% 19.9%
Turnover 16.7% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 6.0%

Odds Per Shot Taken MVST CPLY
Shot Blocked 7.2% 1.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 40.8%