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Miami at Toronto

  Friday Mar 30, 2012 - 7:00 pm - Toronto, Ont | Odds: Miami by 7, Total Points: 191 | Team Pages: MIA | TOR

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA TOR
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting MIA TOR
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 77.4 79.8
Field Goal % 47.8% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 56.8 53.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 35.1%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 25.9
Free Throw % 74.4% 78.8%

Ball Control MIA TOR
Rebounds 45.0 45.0
Rebounds - Defensive 33.8 32.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 12.3
Turnovers 13.6 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.8
Steals 6.5 7.2
Fouls 18.0 20.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA TOR
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with MIA TOR
2 Point Attempt 52.6% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 23.7%
Player Fouled 21.1% 18.9%
Turnover 14.3% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.8%

Odds Per Shot Taken MIA TOR
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 26.7%