Dallas at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jul 2, 2026 8:00 pm - Hartford, CT
Odds: Dallas by 6.5, Total Points: 171.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ CON

More Games From Jul 2, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL CON
Points 90.1 81.8
Total Points   172.0
Points From 2-Pointers 49.6 52.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.2 14.7
Points From Free Throws 16.4 15.0
Shooting DAL CON
Field Goals Made 32.9 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 68.5 67.7
Field Goal % 47.9% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 24.8 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.4 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 16.4 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 21.6
Free Throw % 80.8% 69.7%
Ball Control DAL CON
Rebounds 38.9 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 10.1
Turnovers 11.5 12.6
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.7
Steals 6.0 5.5
Fouls 17.5 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL CON
Total Possessions 83.2
Effective Scoring Chances 80.5 80.7
% of Possessions with DAL CON
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 54.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 16.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 21.1%
Turnover 13.8% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL CON
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 25.1%