Week 6 Survivor Pick Strategy: Evaluating Denver, Houston, Atlanta

October 12, 2017 - by Tom Federico

NFL Week 6 Survivor Pick
Get customized Week 6 survivor picks for all of your pools.

In this post, we’ll provide data-driven analysis for making your NFL Week 6 survivor pick.

Last week more than delivered on the carnage it promised. If you managed to escape alive, or if you’re playing in a new pool starting this week, Week 6 looks significantly less stressful.

Editor’s Note: Our customized survivor picks and analysis tools are available in our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Week 6 Survivor Pick Status

Over 50% of still-alive survivor entries lost last week
The biggest culprits were Jacksonville’s 30-9 upset of Pittsburgh (picked by almost 40% of survivor entries), and the Chargers beating the NY Giants (7% picked). Losses by Detroit, Tennessee, Oakland, Cleveland, and Buffalo (all at least 1% picked) also contributed.

Our Week 5 Survivor Picks
Last week we largely advised our survivor picks customers to avoid the two most popular teams, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, in favor of alternatives including Cincinnati (46% of our recommended picks, win), the NY Giants (20% of our recommended picks, loss), Tennessee (12% of our recommended picks, loss), and Minnesota (10% of our recommended picks, win). Closing as only a 7.5-point favorite, Pittsburgh was not as safe a pick as many people thought; given their huge popularity and high future value, the Steelers were not a slam dunk pick by any means. However, we were even more sour on Philadelphia, whose pick popularity did not seem justified given the alternatives.

TeamRankings Picks vs. The Public
Overall, our survivor picks outperformed the public for the 4th time in 5 weeks. 57% of our recommended Week 5 picks ended up surviving, compared to around 48% for the general public. In the process, we also sacrificed very little future value by mostly avoiding the Steelers, Patriots, and Eagles. (About 7% of our recommended customer picks were on Pittsburgh, but none of them were on Philadelphia or New England.)

Week 6 Survivor Pick Strategy

The best Week 6 survivor pick for you doesn’t just depend on each team’s chance to win. It also depends on how many of your opponents are picking them, how valuable they would be if you saved them for later, and last but not least, on the exact rules and context of your pool (e.g. how many entries are still alive).

As a result, we always warn people to be careful reading generic survivor pool pick advice. However, the analysis below should help inform your Week 6 survivor pick strategy, and also provides a taste of our data-driven approach to winning survivor pools.

Week 6 Survivor Pick Analysis

At post time, four teams are drawing a total of almost 90% of the public’s survivor picks this week. Just remember that shifts in betting odds and pick popularity may have happened since this post was published, and altered the Week 6 landscape. For the latest numbers, our survivor picks and tools update multiple times per day.

Denver (vs. NY Giants)
The Broncos and the Texans are running neck and neck as the most popular survivor picks of Week 6. At 28% popularity and coming off a bye, Denver is the second-safest pick of the week according to the betting markets (after Atlanta), though our models are a bit more optimistic about Denver’s chances. On the downside, Denver has several solid matchups coming up later in the season; they are also the most likely winner of Week 14 when they host the Jets. If you’re in a bigger pool that could last the whole season, that’s a concern.

Houston (vs. Cleveland)
Rookie QB Deshaun Watson continues to impress, and the allure of a home matchup against Cleveland has 25% of the public picking the Texans this week. Whether that popularity is warranted is another story, as Houston is only the fifth-safest pick of the week according to the betting markets, and the Texans also have the most future value out of the four most popular picks. A prime matchup at home against Indianapolis coming up relatively soon in Week 9 is of particular note, as Houston should be the biggest favorite of that week by a decent margin.

Atlanta (vs. Miami)
At 20% pick popularity, Atlanta, coming off a bye week, is the safest play of the week according to the betting markets, while our models are slightly less optimistic. The interesting thing about the Falcons is that given the dynamics of the 2017 NFL schedule, Atlanta has less future value than most people probably would think. First, this week is their most likely win for the rest of the season. Second, while the Falcons do have several other high win odds games coming up, those games mostly come in weeks where there are other viable options as survivor picks.

Washington (vs. San Francisco)
Like Denver and Atlanta, Washington is yet another a team coming off a bye week, and playing at home against a weaker opponent. However, the Redskins are not as good a team as Denver, Houston, or Atlanta. In addition, San Francisco has come very close to upsetting several teams on the road this season, including taking both the Cardinals and Colts to overtime in Weeks 4 and 5. Those two reasons may help explain why not more than 16% of the public is on Washington this week. Nevertheless, both the betting markets and our models project this game as solidly in Washington’s favor, and the Redskins have the least future value out of the four most popular picks this week.

With so many public picks concentrated on these four times,  potential hidden gems among the much less popular picks this week, use our NFL survivor pool picks.

Week 6 Survivor Pick Portfolios

If you’re playing in multiple survivor pools, or playing multiple entries in a survivor pool, your research shouldn’t only involve finding the single best pick of the week.

To maximize your expected profits, you’ll likely want to come up with a portfolio of multiple teams that you spread across your survivor entries. In other words, if you’ve got three survivor pool entries still alive, putting all three entries on the same team might not be your best strategy.

One of the unique features of our NFL Survivor Picks product is that it figures out your optimal pick portfolio each week (e.g. “with your three entries, put two entries on Team X and one entry on Team Y”). Then, it tells you exactly which team to use with each of your surviving entries.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy another week of NFL football and good luck with your Week 6 survivor pick. If you found this post valuable, please consider subscribing to one of our premium products:

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