NFL Week 9 Preview: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats For Three Big Games

November 1, 2018 - by Seth Trachtman

NFL Week 9 Matchups

With NFL Week 9 kicking off tonight, here’s a stats-driven preview of three of this week’s biggest games.

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LA Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

This AFC West vs. NFC West matchup features two of the hottest teams in the NFL, as they fight for playoff spots. The Chargers escaped London with a 20-19 win over Tennessee two weeks ago, extending their winning streak to four straight. Philip Rivers continues to have one of his best seasons, as the Chargers are averaging 8.8 yards per pass (third best in the NFL) and have put up 27.9 points per contest. RB Melvin Gordon could also return from a hamstring injury this week after missing the London game. The pair present a formidable challenge for a Seahawks defense that ranks middle of the pack in points (23.3) and yards allowed (362.3 per game), and have especially struggled to get off the field on third down (46.1% opponent conversion).

Seattle is heating up as well, with wins in four of their last five contests. The Seahawks’ only loss in that stretch was a 33-31 defeat at the hands of the undefeated Rams. Russell Wilson has really produced lately, throwing three touchdowns in three straight games. Still, the Seahawks are the most run-heavy team in the league, running the ball 52.2% of the time. Despite drafting RB Rashaad Penny in the first round, it’s been Chris Carson and Mike Davis carrying the load on the ground. Carson has run for at least 100 yards in three of the last four contests, and is expected to see a heavy workload again vs. a Chargers defense that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry (16th in the NFL). Seattle’s struggles in pass protection, with a quarterback sack rate of 10.3%, continue to pose a problem, but the Chargers have sacked the quarterback only 6.9% of the time without the injured DE Joey Bosa on the field.

Head to Head: The Chargers won the last matchup 30-21 in 2014.  However, Seattle has won 11 of the last 15 head-to-head matchups, dating back to 1996.

Point Spread on Thursday: Seattle -1.5

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LA Rams at New Orleans Saints: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

This Sunday later afternoon matchup is the clear game of the week, as the 8-0 Rams take on the 6-1 Saints. Even while undefeated, LA has had plenty of close calls in recent weeks, including a 29-27 win at home vs. Green Bay last week. The Rams offense has sputtered just a bit with the absence of WR Cooper Kupp, failing to score 30 points in two of the last three games. They still rank #3 in points per game (33.0) and #2 in yards per game (442.6) with a run-heavy attack led by RB Todd Gurley. The Saints defense is positioned to combat the strong running game, ranking tops in the league in opponent yards per rush (3.2), but will also have to contend with LA’s league-leading 9.2 yards per pass attempt. New Orleans acquired CB Eli Apple last week to help shore up their secondary, but Vikings QB Kirk Cousins still threw for 359 yards against them on Sunday. The game could be in QB Jared Goff’s hands, and the possible return of Kupp is more than convenient, pairing with former Saints WR Brandin Cooks.

The Saints have now won six straight after losing their home opener, and streak is even more impressive after key road wins at Baltimore and Minnesota over the last two weeks. To this point, New Orleans has actually scored more points per game than the Rams, ranking #2 in the league with 33.4 points. Head coach Sean Payton’s offense has struggled for consistency on the ground, even after the return of RB Mark Ingram from suspension after Week 4, but QB Drew Brees has been as efficient as ever. The all-time NFL passing yardage leader has helped the team complete an incredible 77.2% of their passes and rank sixth in the league with 8.0 yards per pass. The strength of the Rams defense is up front, especially in the pass rush (8th in sack percentage), but they’ve really struggled against the run. LA has allowed 4.8 yards per carry, so if there’s ever a game for Ingram and Alvin Kamara to get going, this could be it.

Head to Head: The Rams have won three of the last four matchups, including last season. However, the home team has won the last five games.

Point Spread on Thursday: New Orleans -1

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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots: Picks, Odds & Matchup Stats

The Packers fell just short last week against the Rams, and are now rewarded with a visit to Foxborough. It’s another critical game for a 3-3-1 Green Bay squad that’s sitting in third place in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers was up to his old tricks against the Rams, averaging 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and he’s still thrown only one pick through seven games. The Packers have the second most pass-heavy offense in football as a result of consistently playing from behind, including two come from behind wins, but they’re also averaging a solid 4.8 yards per carry. RB Aaron Jones has averaged 6.2 yards per carry since returning from suspension, and the ground game is an area in which the Pats defense is beatable, allowing 4.4 yards per carry this year.

New England’s offense continues to make do despite injuries, most recently RB Sony Michel. The running back position has been so dire that the team turned to WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson last week, who had 10 carries for 38 yards. If Michel is forced to miss another game, it could be relief for a Packers defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry. Green Bay has done better against the pass, allowing only 221.7 yards per contest. However, it’s notable given how the Patriots deploy RB James White: the Packers allowed six catches for 81 yards to RB Todd Gurley last week. Tom Brady’s offense still ranks fourth in the league with 29.9 yards per game, even with several injuries and suspensions to his weapons in the first half of the season, and the Pats are undefeated at home (4-0) going into Week 9.

Head to Head: The Packers won the last matchup in 2014, ending a streak of two consecutive wins by the Patriots. Bill Belichick is 2-2 against Green Bay as the Patriots head coach.

Point Spread on Thursday: New England -5.5

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