Week 5 NFL Survivor Strategy: Do Road Teams Make You Nervous?

posted in NFL, NFL Survivor Pools

Welcome to the Week 5 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data. This article presents our PRELIMINARY Survivor pick of the week; we publish our final, official pick on Fridays.

Thank you, Garrett Hartley.

Our pick last week, the Green Bay Packers, escaped by the hairs of their chinny chin chins against the New Orleans Saints, winning 28-27 via a late fourth quarter touchdown and a missed 48 yard field goal by Hartley. As we’ve said time and time again, you need a lot of luck to win your survivor pool, and we received a healthy dose Sunday. Our alternate pick, the Broncos, who we recommended for people in small pools where the winner could be determined in the next few weeks, destroyed the Raiders by a 37-6 score.

After Week 3’s bloodbath, Week 4 was very tame. Only 3% of remaining Yahoo! entries were eliminated last week, which means about 7.5% of the original 330,000 Yahoo! contestants remain. The biggest upset was St. Louis over Seattle, which knocked out 1.3% of our opponents.

Recap Of “End Game” Strategy

Despite the lack of upsets last week, a lot of you are probably in pools with only a few people left. It’s important to remember that in small pools, the correct strategy can change considerably. Here’s a refresher on the three points we made last week about Survivor end-game tactics:

  • It’s less likely that your opponents’ picks will closely mimic the national public picking averages.
  • Future value means less.
  • Resist the urge to play overly conservative just because you’re close to winning.

For an expanded discussion on these points, see the Week 4 NFL Survivor post.

Week 5 NFL Survivor Decision Factors

This is the heart of our column, the table showing the factors that influence our weekly Survivor pick decision. For every team, here are the three questions we ask ourselves (and the data in our table that helps us answer them):

1. How likely are they to win? (consensus sportsbook Spread at -110 payout odds, Pinnacle Money Line, and TR Odds from our NFL win picks page)

2. How popular is this team? (Average public Pick % from sites like Yahoo! and OfficeFootballPool)

3. Should I save this team for later? (Future Value: the estimated number of future games where the team is expected to have win odds of 75%+, based on averaging projections from our NFL Survivor Tool [which uses data from only this season] and our NFL Season Projections [which incorporates our preseason team projections]. Near Value: a modified version of Future Value that places more emphasis on near term value and is more relevant to players in very small pools.)

Teams are listed in order of how attractive we think they are as a choice this week. They’re also separated into rough tiers. If two teams are in the same tier, you may want to choose among them based on which pros and cons are more important to your particular situation.

One note on a change from last week: this week we’ve scaled Near Val so that it has roughly the same total as Future Val. This allows you to see at a glance whether a team’s future value is front loaded (higher Near Val than Future Val) or back loaded (lower Near Val than Future Val).

Teams We Already Picked: Houston Texans (WIN), Cincinnati Bengals (WIN), Dallas Cowboys (WIN), Green Bay Packers (WIN)

TeamOpponentLineMoney LineTR OddsPick %Future ValNear Val
Tier 1: The Frontrunner
San Franciscovs Buffalo-10.0-430 / +36980%22.9%1.51.4
Tier 2: Other Top Options
Green Bayat Indianapolis-7.0-285 / +25274%11.8%1.51.4
Chicagoat Jacksonville-6.0-245 / +21870%3.6%1.52.8
Tier 3: Some Clear Negatives
Minnesotavs Tennessee-5.5-230 / +20565%6.8%0.51.1
NY Giantsvs Cleveland-8.0-365 / +31874%39.7%1.01.4
Houstonat NY Jets-8.0-340 / +29774%3.8%6.55.6
New Orleansvs San Diego-3.5-188 / +16963%0.8%1.00.3
Baltimoreat Kansas City-6.0-260 / +23162%2.6%3.04.1
Pittsburghvs Philadelphia-3.5-168 / +15265%0.4%2.02.3
Carolinavs Seattle-3.0-155 / +14061%0.7%0.00.0
Cincinnativs Miami-3.5-175 / +15861%4.1%1.00.8
New Englandvs Denver-6.5-267 / +23769%1.1%8.09.2
Atlantaat Washington-3.0-156 / +14156%0.5%5.55.1
Arizonaat St Louis-1.0-110 / +10055%1.0%2.52.1

Weighing the Options

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Buffalo Bills) — The 49ers are the safest pick of the week (biggest Vegas favorite, highest TR win odds), yet are not the most popular team. That’s always a good combo. Granted, they are the second most popular, but the difference between 23% (SF) and 40% (NYG) is rather large. The Niners and the Texans are far and away the best picks if you ignore future value. Of course, you can’t really do that, so people are likely opting for the Giants because they have less future value. But it’s not like the 49ers are going to be huge favorites in several future weeks — their easiest game (home vs. the Rams in Week 10) comes during a week with lots of other good options. Given their high immediate EV, it’s probably worth spending your San Francisco pick now.

Green Bay Packers (at Indianapolis Colts) — It’s rather surprising that a road team is the third most popular pick of the week (12%), as many people seem to try to stay away from visiting teams, even when the Vegas line indicates they are strong favorites. It’s especially surprising given that the Packers nearly lost last week. Despite their popularity, we see them as a good pick. Why? Because our models see them as the second safest pick of the week, basically tied with the Giants and Texans. The Giants are way too popular, and the Texans have tons of future value, so the Packers rank above either of them. The Packers are a reasonable pick this week, though we’ve already used them.

Chicago Bears (at Jacksonville Jaguars) — Hmm, another road team. The Bears are definitely another notch below the Packers/Giants/Texans in terms of Vegas and TR win odds, but they are much less popular than New York, and have much less future value than Houston, so are a better pick than either of those two. Compared to Green Bay, the lower win odds and lower pick percentage are basically a wash, though the math points slightly in Green Bay’s direction. One other factor is that the future value of the Bears is front loaded, with their best matchup coming in Week 8 (vs. Carolina). If there are only a few people left in your pool, it’s probably best to save the Bears to give you some picking flexibility over the next few weeks. In huge pools, the Bears are as good of a pick as the Packers.

Minnesota Vikings (vs Tennessee Titans) — The main reason to consider the Vikings this week is that they have very little future value. The only decent chance to use them going forward is against Tampa Bay in Week 8, but there should be other options that week. So if you’ve already burned 3 or 4 excellent teams (Atlanta, New England, Houston, Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay), Minnesota might be a decent pick to try to preserve some future value. They also could be good for those of you in pools where the tiebreaker is fewest wins by the teams you’ve picked. However, they are a very risky pick, so you need to have a clear reason to choose them over the 49ers, Packers, or Bears.

New York Giants (vs Cleveland Browns) — The Giants are relatively safe (roughly tied for second highest spread, money line, and win odds this week). And they have very little future value. But they are super popular, which means you should avoid picking them if you have other reasonable options.

Houston Texans (at New York Jets) — Given their combo of high win odds and low pick percentage, the Texans are essentially tied with the 49ers as the pick with the highest immediate EV (expected value) this week. The big problem is that they have tons of future value, so it’s probably wiser to save them for later. In pools where you can re-use teams, the Texans could be a decent pick, presuming your pick percentages are similar to the ones in our table. Of course, in pools where you can re-use teams, your pick percentages will likely NOT be similar to those in our table, as people won’t be trying to save Houston for later. We’ve already used them.

Baltimore Ravens (at Kansas City Chiefs) — The Ravens’ profile is very similar to that of the Bears, with the exception that the Ravens have much more future value. Plus, that future value is front loaded, which makes it even more helpful in small pools. Our models are also fairly low on Baltimore this week. Given that, we don’t see a reason to pick the Ravens this week.

New England Patriots (at Denver Broncos) — While the Patriots are reasonably safe, and very unpopular, they have tons of future value. STAY AWAY and save them for later.

The rest of the teams have spreads and money lines low enough that we can dismiss them without a second thought.

Preliminary Week 5 NFL Survivor Pick: San Francisco 49ers Over Buffalo Bills

This is a fairly straightforward week. There are four teams that grade out as the safest choices of the week: San Francisco, Green Bay, Houston, and New York.

The Texans are out because they have a ton of future value (that, and we’ve already used them). The Giants are out because 40% of the public is picking them, so we want to avoid them and root for an upset.

That leaves San Francisco and Green Bay. Both have very similar future values, so we can just focus on immediate expected value — that is, the balance between win odds and popularity.

Vegas gives SF about a 6% higher chance to win, and our models give them a 4% higher chance. This is compared to a 12% higher pick rate for the 49ers. The math is clear here: San Francisco’s advantage in win odds outweighs Green Bay’s lower popularity:

  • 59% of the time, both win, so it doesn’t matter who we picked.
  • 21% of the time, SF wins while GB loses. This eliminates 12% of the pool, which boosts our win odds by a factor of about 1/(1-0.12) = 1.14. That 1.14 factor multiplied by a 21% chance equals 0.24.
  • 15% of the time, GB wins while SF loses. This eliminates 23% of the pool, which boosts our win odds by a factor of about 1/(1-0.23) = 1.30. That 1.30 factor multiplied by a 16% chance equals 0.19.
  • 6% of the time, both lose, so it doesn’t matter who we picked.

That 0.24 versus 0.19 comparison is what matters here. What do those numbers mean? Well, they aren’t really on the correct scale, because we haven’t taken other games and outcomes into account, but they are essentially unitless estimates of the expected value of each pick.

Fooling around with the numbers a bit, we can see that the tipping point is around a 3-to-1 popularity ratio — if you think that San Francisco will be 3 times as popular as Green Bay in your pool, rather than just two, then the Packers become the better choice.

Of course, we already picked Green Bay, so all this math is moot for us. But hopefully it’s informative, and it could help those of you that haven’t been directly following our picks.

As always, feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments section. However, please note that a lot can change between now and Friday, when we publish our finalized pick. So if your picks aren’t due until the weekend, you may want to hold off on asking for advice until Friday.

  • Anonymous

    Great to have ya back David. My situation is as follows this week: Pool of 4900 down to 770ish, thinking SF easy choice here (went GB last week). Pool of 125 down to 17, 2 entries. Thinking SF and (NYG/GB?) Last pool, 20 people down to 2. Other guy already used SF and I havent, so again I assume that makes SF an easy choice as he will likely go NYG. So question is then, do I go GB or NYG with my other pick in the med pool (went GB and Hou last week there)? Should I spread it out more than SF, SF/GB, SF? I usually try to go A, A/B, B or A, A/B, C to hedge a bit but doesnt seem like this week fits that. Thanks!

  • Anonymous

    Great to have ya back David. My situation is as follows this week: Pool of 4900 down to 770ish, thinking SF easy choice here (went GB last week). Pool of 125 down to 17, 2 entries. Thinking SF and (NYG/GB?) Last pool, 20 people down to 2. Other guy already used SF and I havent, so again I assume that makes SF an easy choice as he will likely go NYG. So question is then, do I go GB or NYG with my other pick in the med pool (went GB and Hou last week there)? Should I spread it out more than SF, SF/GB, SF? I usually try to go A, A/B, B or A, A/B, C to hedge a bit but doesnt seem like this week fits that. Thanks!

  • scooch

    in your weighing the options you wrote giants vs san diego. there playing clevland. love your articles. keep me winning

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Thanks, fixed.

  • Emerson

    I have to pick 2 picks this week in one of my leagues. I have unfortunately burned Houston/Giants/Chicago/GB

    I was already planning to use SF with one of my picks, so that is great.

    I’m really concerned about Minnesota suffering a letdown this week, although Tenn is bad. I would also like to save NE/Bal if possible.

    I was curious about your thoughts on using Cinci as the 2nd pick. You have them with a very low future value and seem relatively safe.

    Thanks as always! I look forward to this blog post every week.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hmm, interesting situation. I would also generally take your strategy of not picking the same team in all three pools.

    Based on the fact that 15% are still alive in your big pool, it seems like your opponents may not be loading up on a single favorite as much as our pick percentages above imply. So perhaps the Giants aren’t a terrible pick there, and you could go:

    Big NYG
    Medium SF/GB
    Small SF

    Then again, it would be nice to leave GB available to one of your medium pool entries. so SF/CHI or SF/NYG could work there as well.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I would for sure go Minnesota over Ciny. Minny has a better spread, money line, and TR odds, plus less future value.

  • Emerson

    That was fast! Thanks! Keep crushing it. Love your insight

  • Anonymous

    Pool of 120 down to 8. Five have already used up NYG. None have used SF. Does this make NYG a no brainer?

  • R Dog

    So in a pool with 5 people including myself left. 1 person picked SF in a previous week and 1 other person picked the Giants in a previous week. No one has picked Green Bay (including myself — I picked Denver last week). 4 people including myself have already used Chicago. 4 people including myself have already picked Houston, and no one has picked Minnesota yet. On the surface, it looks like SF is the clear pick, but my pool is in SF, so local team bias may play through this week (in week 3, SF was the most popularly picked team, they knocked out 6 of the remaining 15 people). My question is, how many people of the 3 possible people who can pick SF (not including myself) have to pick SF for the Packers to be the best choice? What would you do in my situation? Thanks, you guys are great.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Oh, wow. I’m not sure that makes NYG a no brainer, but they definitely look like they are also a good pick. If you think at least 3 of your opponents will pick SF, and only 1 or 0 will pick NYG, then I think NYG is a better pick. That *seems* like a reasonable assumption, but you can never be sure. I’d check out the past pick history of the people with NYG available, and see if you can predict whether they’ll take NYG this week. If it’s clear one of them won’t, then I’d probably go NYG.

  • geddy1001

    So Im still alive in both of my pools, but my decsions may become based on when our picks get locked. In one pool, its just two of us and we have to have our picks in by Friday at 5. In my other pool, its down to 4 of us BUT our picks have to be in before the Thurs night game,so this year has been a bit interesting with all the late changes in the spread and change of the final pick. That being said, how should I approach each of these pools moving forward.? Should I take into account in the one pool that the picks close early so I take a conservative approach (though there are more players) Just curious what you think, specifically this week but also moving forward. Thanks!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    OK, looks like there was a slight SF bias in Week 2 (33% in your pool vs. 24% on Yahoo). However, those may have been the most biased people, and they’re gone now. At any rate, to answer your question …

    I’ve gotta make some assumptions in order to do the math. So I’m assuming one person picks HOU/CHI/other, and the other 3 opponents are split in some way between SF, NYG, and GB. Given that assumption, it appears the best strategy is:

    1. If you think more than one person will pick SF, then pick whichever of NYG/GB you think will NOT be picked by anyone else.
    2. If you think only 1 or 0 people will pick SF, go ahead and pick SF.

    Even if you choose the wrong team in (1), that’s OK — being one of 2 people on NYG/GB against 2 people on SF is still better than being one of 3 people on SF against 1 person on NYG/GB.

  • Anonymous

    Always difficult when you have to crossover from the numbers and throw in a little guesswork… Thanks for the advice and the detailed analysis throughout the season.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Assuming these pools are of roughly equal value to you, I would probably try to pick different teams in the two pools.

    Since you are down to only one other person in the later pool, the best approach there is basically just to pick the team that maximizes your chance to survive the next few weeks. In other words, pick the team with the best win odds (using a balance of Vegas and TR odds), unless doing so would severely compromise your pick in one of the next few weeks (don’t worry about late in the season — you probably won’t have to survive that long).

    Then in the other pool, you’ll want to try to predict your opponents picks as much as possible. Generally, you should probably take the safest option that you think nobody else will pick (because if you and an opponent both pick the same team, the other 2 players will have an edge that week, as one upset can knock both of you out).

    This week, for example, I’d go with SF in the late pool, and GB/HOU/NYG/CHI in the early pool. Look at your opponents’ past picks, and try to predict which of those teams will have not been picked by anybody.

  • James

    The spread listed on the main NFL page on this website is NYG -9.5. I don’t see it as -8 anywhere. Was that a typo? Does that change the analysis at all?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    No, not a typo. The spreads I used in the table are consensus spreads from books with -110/-110 (or at least even on both sides) payout odds. I used http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/ to find those. NYG has a bunch of -8.5 & -7.5 lines, so I split the difference.

    The lines on our picks pages are all taken from Pinnacle. For some reason on this game they have the line at -9.5, but the payouts are -118 for CLE and +109 for NYG, meaning the line is severely shaded away from even odds.

  • Taylor

    For those of us in a 3 strikes, then out pool, how does that affect endgame strategy and valuation of future picks? Obviously a league like that should go a lot deeper, so should I value things differently? Well over half of the pool has 2 strikes already though, and I’m sitting with one other guy still perfect.

  • Ravensfan

    Down to 4 in my league thanks to your guys help! I jumped the gun last week and went with Baltimore and so did the other 3. Of us remaining 4 no one has used Green Bay, New York, or San Francisco. Do I stay with SF as my pick?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    That’s really tough to give a solid answer to. If your pool goes to the people with the fewest strikes, then I’d treat it fairly similar to a regular pool. If not, and everybody who is still alive gets a share, then yeah, major differences.

    Generically, in a pool like this:
    1. Public pick percentage matters less, because the big upsets you are rooting for don’t actually knock very many people out. They just lose a strike.
    2. Public pick percentages will probably be inaccurate for your pool, anyway.
    3. Because a loss doesn’t knock you out, you can make riskier picks.
    4. Because it takes 3 losses to be eliminated, the pool will last longer, so future value is more important.
    5. On the other hand, it’s OK to make riskier picks in those later weeks (see #3), so that means future value is *less* important.

    In your case, with a lot of people sitting on 2 strikes, and you are one of the only perfect ones, I would assume that the eventual winner will probably have 1 loss. That means you should not get all crazy, as you need to make normal, fairly safe picks to give yourself a chance at finishing with a good record. I think you are correct — future value is very important, because it’s not going to end early. And public percentages are less so. So, NYG or SF is probably your best pick this week.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Try to guess who your opponents will pick, based on their past history. If it looks like one of those 3 teams will not be picked, and the other 2 will, take that un-picked team. If you have no idea who will be picked, I guess you have to just go with the safe pick of SF.

  • Bill Kimball

    I’m down the the final 3 in two pools. Have already used Texans, Giants and Cowboys in both, and Falcons and Packers last week. (What endings…whew!) Feels as if Packers in one and 49ers in the other spreads my risk over 49ers in both. Concerned about the Bears on a short week after an emotional road win on Monday in Dallas.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I don’t know that SF will be a fantastic option in Week 14 (vs MIA) either. Here are some estimates of the spread/odds for that game from various sources:

    old TR ratings (only takes into account performance this year): 70%
    new TR ratings (incorporates preseason ratings): 65%
    Teddy Covers projected spread: -14
    Cantor gaming preseason spread: -7
    Cantor spread adjusted by BeyondTheBets: -11

    Obviously Teddy Covers has them as big favorites, but our ratings don’t see it. BTB splits the difference. So, yeah, they may be big favorites, but I don’t think it’s a given, and a lot can change in 10 weeks.

    That said, you named the top four picks in my list, so I’m certainly not going to argue if you think that you should weight future games more heavily for SF and knock them down a bit, then take one of the other top choices.

    Also, funny that you see Minny as “on a roll” while another commentor is concerned with them “suffering a letdown. I just see them as “-230 money line favorites” :)

  • Mike

    Hello David,

    Welcome back!
    I am happy Tom did better than the replacement refs.

    The pool I am in started with 10,083 and is now
    down to 1,668. In weeks 10 through 15
    you must pick 2 teams and in weeks 16 and 17 you must pick 3 teams.

    Pick 1 – HOU / CIN / CHI / GB

    Pick 2 – CHI / NYG / DAL / DEN

    I was thinking SF / GB or SF / MIN or NYG / GB
    or NYG / SF

    Is it crazy to pick NYG even though they have
    huge pick %? My thought is to use them
    since their future value is so low and the fact that multiply teams need to be
    picked in the future?

    Do you have any other ideas?

    Thanks again for your help!


  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    With only 3 people left, you really need to try to figure out who your opponents will be picking. It’s bad for your expected value if you and one other person are on one team, while your opponent is on another.

    That said, without knowing their picks, SF/GB seems like a good pair.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


    IF the pick percentages are like the ones we outline above, then I think it’s still not great to pick NYG. However, it’s tough to say how pick percentages will change in your circumstances. It actually seems like the Giants will get more popular, since their low future value is so popular.

    I think I’d probably go with one of your first two pairings, but again, it’s tough to adjust for the wacky rules.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Not many people in Yahoo have used SF either, so I don’t think this changes much. You do have a high percentage that have already used NYG, so they may be a bit less popular. Still, San Francisco starts out ahead of NYG due to their better win odds & Vegas lines. NYG would need to be *less* popular than SF in order for them to be a clearly better pick. It’s tough for me to say where their pick % will end up in your pool, but I’d guess 25% to 30%. So, they aren’t a terrible choice, but I still lean SF.

  • xanderjones

    Hey David, welcome back. I am in a pool of 108, down from 1084. I have two spots. First spot has used GB, CHI, HOU, and CHI – second spot has used CHI, PIT, DAL, and BAL. Is it a bad idea to use SF on both? or should I go SF, MIN (my second spot is locked in on SF)

  • http://www.facebook.com/garybatini Gary D. Batini

    I’m in a survivor pool that started out with 56 entries and it is now down to 19 (as of the start of Week 4). I don’t think a lot of entries were eliminated. Two things to note in this pool.
    1. It is double elimination. You can lose one time and still be alive. You lose twice, you are out.
    2. You can pick the same team multiple times during the season, but you can’t pick them in back to back weeks.
    Last week, i picked Houston and moved on to Week 5. I see San Francisco as an option along with the New York Giants. I’m on the West Coast about five hours north of San Francisco. Should I take geographical location of your fanbase into account when I make the Week 5 pick?

  • Steve

    Excellent insight as always! Before this week’s blog came out, I figured I would take SFO this week because yes, road teams do make me nervous (I used HOU last week and still have GB). Now that I only have 7 opponents left, I am still leaning towards the least risky pick in SFO although I think the breakdown could possibly look like this based on past picks: NYGx3, SFOx3, GBx0, CHIx1. I understand you say the tipping point to pick GB matches this scenario exactly, but I can’t help but look ahead and think that using GB vs. Jax in week 8 is a safer pick than using SF vs. Sea in week 7 (which I imagine will be suggested for that week) as it is a Thursday night division game and we know how those can go (I would use NE vs. NYJ in week 7 instead). Obviously, it is not possible to accurately predict my opponents’ picks and NYGx3, SFOx2, GBx1, CHIx1 could easily happen as well as a number of other combos, so I would really like to hear a reason why I should abandon my SFO pick and go GB without knowing for sure how my groups’ picks will go. Thanks!

  • Guest

    Still in a pool with over 100 left (with 45% picking Giants and 30% picking San Fran so far). In the past, the pool goes to the end, but obviously this year is different. Planned on using the Giants this week, but lost the same week last year when I didn’t listen to your advice and picked them to beat the Seattle. My only concern in using San Fran this week is my pick for week 7 (I was holding onto San Fran for week 7). I have used Houston, Cinn, Bears, Baltimore. Thoughts?

  • My3Boys

    Still in a pool with over 100 left (with 45% picking Giants and 30%
    picking San Fran so far). In the past, the pool goes to the end, but
    obviously this year is different. Planned on using the Giants this
    week, but lost the same week last year when I didn’t listen to your
    advice and picked them to beat the Seattle. My only concern in using
    San Fran this week is my pick for week 7 (I was holding onto San Fran
    for week 7). I have used Houston, Cinn, Bears, Baltimore. Thoughts?

  • Brian

    Down to 4 entries from 58. Have used BAL/CHI/DET/NYG. Other 3 people have all used HOU and none have used SF, GB,or NYG. Does this make HOU a logical pick, or play it safe with SF and save HOU for say Week 9 or 11 if we get to it? For what its worth I am in another pool (down to 9 from 48) and am leaning SF.

  • geddy1001

    Thanks David! Ive been following the TR picks for the most part but have been diversifying the past couple of weeks. In the early pool, its going to very intersting. Of the four you listed above, Ive used GB and HOU. Of the three opponents eft, one has used HOU, NY and CHI, one has used just HOU and the other has not used any of them. For me, it leaves just NYG and CHI. NYG is th emost “popular” pick so far so by process of elimination does that leave CHI as the best choice for myself? Just looking at the picking patterns of the others, the only trends I could see was they were staying away for most popular teams but maybe went to 2nd/3rd ranked in popularity OR whoever seemed to have been playing the Browns :) Thanks again!

  • jp


    My pool has whats called a monday night buy back where you can pick a monday night team if you havent used them and pay again. It’s down to 4 teams . I have used Chi, Dal, NYG, Bal, (Haven’t bought back); should I take a chance on Min and save houston for monday night, holding on to GB and SF… or should I just go with SF now.

  • http://twitter.com/swamiluv Russ Aragon

    Great job once again! Ok now down to the Nitty gritty, We have 635 down from 4200, I have used da bears, cincy, packers, texans, 9% alive have used the 49ers, 33% have used the G-MEN. Thoughts?, Plus here are our rules starting with week 11. Starting in Week 11 all remaining entries will have to pick 2 teams per week if the number of remaining entries is equal to or greater than the
    number next to each week below:

    Week 11 >= 300

    Week 12 >= 200

    Week 13 >= 100

    Week 14 >= 50

    Week 15 >= 25

    Week 16 >= 10

    Week 17 >= 5

    If the number of remaining entries drops below the threshold for each week we would go back to single picks.
    I am not sure if there is any way to prepare for this.

    Next we started another pool starting week 5 this week 550 entries so far it will probably get to 1000= $100,000 prize. i am thinging packers for that pick since we have all teams to choose from in the new pool. Thanks !

  • Eric

    Why is Cincinnati an AVOID? I know you’ve used them in this mock, but assuming you still have them available they seem like they should be a decent option. Vegas consistently underrates the Bengals, and I can’t believe that playing at home against the Dolphins they’re only basically getting the standard home team 3-point spread. Next week they play on the road at Cleveland (I hate division games) and that would likely be the last “safe” game to pick them for the rest of the season as their schedule gets much tougher from there on. I still have three picks in my pool and have only used the Bengals for one. If I don’t use them for one this week for at least one pick then I don’t think I can use them again for the rest of the season. Is the AVOID tage based purely on the Vegas line? Because I think they are much better than 3.5 point favorites.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Steverinie Steve Wang

    HEY DAVID, pardon the caps, but I’d like to get your attention. For those of us who have to submit our picks before the Thursday games, we follow your EARLY advice. For the early column, the picks so far have been HOU, NYG, CHI, GNB. For future early columns, you should list your early picks as the “Teams We Already Picked”. Thanks and keep up the great work!

  • BootyDo

    Honestly, part of me wants my pool to go all 17 weeks because I LOVE these articles! Thank you!

    I’m in a weird situation. Just 4 of us left, (one pick/single elimination), and I’d bet all my chips one guy goes with SF and another goes with NYG. That leaves me and another unknown entry I’m clueless about. Any thoughts on which way I should lean, (have all top 3 tier teams available)

  • JoeP

    David, welcome back. Tom did a more than adequate job as your replacement.

    My pool of 330 is down to 28

    11 have already used NYG but not SF or GB

    1 has used San Fran but not NYG or GB

    2 have used NYG and GB

    1 has used GB

    My team has NYG, GB and SF all available, I am thinking we go NYG and pray for an upset by the Bills.


  • Ducer

    I am 1 of 18 remaining in my pool. Here is the breakdown of the teams the other people have used already:

    Texans – 14 of 17 have already used
    Bears – 9
    Giants – 7
    49ers – 1
    Packers – 0

    I have already used Texans, Bears…so my choices are Giants, 49ers or Packers.

    Based on the above, is it better to take the “known” value that 7 of 17 can’t pick the Giants and make them my pick, or take the 49ers or Packers and “hope” the scales tip in my favor?

    From a worst case perspective, if I take the Giants I guarantee I’ll have at least 7 other people pick differently and I have to assume at least some of the others will not pick the Giants. If I pick GB or SF I could end up in a worse situation…or better…but no guarantee like I have with the the Giants.


  • JK

    Question about the Future Value column: does that number represent the number of future weeks when that team will be a solid (75%+) pick? Thanks!

  • TheOracle

    Awesome work, love the prob and stats approach.

    Thanks in part to your analyses, I have 2 entries left in a large pool (several hundred still alive.) We pick 2 teams this week. I saved the Giants and Niners specifically for this 2-pick week, but now I’m wondering if I should split, maybe take Niners/Packers with one of the entries.

    Generally I think it is harder to pick 3 winners than 2, so I have a higher chance of both entries surviving if I don’t split.

    What is your take on this?

  • R Dog

    Thanks David! I’ll consider the different possibilities and let you know what I pick

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

    Ugh. More people in my pool picked SF than NYG. !@#$

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Oh, interesting. I would usually suggested splitting your two entries, but the drop off to MIN is pretty big. And SF is a relatively safe pick. So I think this week I might double up on SF. That bumps your chance of being totally eliminated up from about 7% to 20%, but it also bumps your chances of BOTH surviving up from about 53% to 80%. Tough call.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I don’t think those already-picked values are hugely different from Yahoo. A few more past Giants pickers, but not *that* many.

    You may want to ask yourself *why* more people picked the Giants in the past. Regional bias? If so, that would apply again this week.

    I’d still lean towards SF, but if you think more people will pick SF than NYG, then NYG are a decent pick as well.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I think it’s a pretty tough call between SF and NYG in your case. NYG are definitely reasonable. As I suggested above, you may want to try to figure out why so many people have already used NYG, and whether the bias towards them is something that will exist again this week (regional), or was specific to some past week (i.e. they were the biggest fave that week, or something along those lines).

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Steve, that’s a good idea. I’ll list both going forward. Thanks for the suggestion.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I think the main thing is that you need to place *slightly* more emphasis on future value, since you may have to pick more teams late in the year. That makes SF a bit less attractive.

    In the second pool, I’d expect the pick% for HOU, CHI, & NYG to rise (because everybody has them available, unlike in a normal pool, where they have been picked by a good chunk people already). So there, SF or GB looks like a good choice.

    I’d split your choices over the two pools, so maybe NYG in the big pool, and SF or GB in the small one?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yes, I think HOU is a great pick for you. Their main negative is their high future value, but with 3 people you don’t need to worry much about that. And, you want to avoid being on the same team as a couple other opponents, and HOU does that for you. SF sounds good for the other pool.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Are those 45%/30% numbers the number that picked them in past weeks, or this week? If it’s past weeks, that is a LOT of people already picking both teams. I think that makes both look like slightly better picks for you. So taking NYG and saving SF for later is OK, but I still lean towards SF.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Tough call. Like you said, your projected pick distribution is right around the tipping point, so I’d use the one you think has less future value. That’s also a close call between the two. It seems like burning NE in Week 7 (if you use SF now) is worse than burning DEN/CHI/MIN in Week 8 (if you use GB now), so I still lean GB. But this is so close, I’d go with the side you are personally happier with.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Wow, weird pool. Because of those rules, your pick% will be way off from what we use above in the analysis. … And yes, you should take your pool’s geo bias into account. Go back and check whether SF was more popular than Yahoo for past weeks. Yahoo data is here: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/survival/pickdistribution?week=4&type=

    So, future value basically doesn’t matter, and public pick% will be way different… My guess is that SF will be SUPER popular in your pool this week (biggest fave AND geo bias). So, I’d take the next biggest fave — either NYG or HOU. You can’t use HOU, so I’d probably go with NYG.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Given those restraints, then yes, I think CHI sounds like a decent pick in that pool.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Some options could be:
    Broncos @ RaidersPackers vs Lions
    Falcons @ Panthers
    Ravens @ Redskins
    Bills vs Rams

    Or even something like Bengals vs Dallas, given the way these teams have played this year. Or Browns vs Chiefs.

    Tough to say, as Week 14 is a long way away.

  • PizzaMan

    1000 pool down to 150….1/3 already used giants….does that make them more appealing this week over SF who only 10% used? Have Giants available on 3 seperate entries. Total wins is tiebreaker…currently 4 back. About 1/3 also used Baltimore already and a modest handful Houston (i haven’t used either), but hard to see going with either of them knowing tie-break most likely may be in effect. Washington, St. Louis, Carolina worth a risk to record a low-win team? I thought i would be including Minn in that group this week but at 3-1 who know’s how good/bad they are?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Wow, strange rules. I would guess that your rules promote some more risk taking, so NYG and SF will be slightly less popular. Future value is a bit more important (especially teams with good matchups in Week 10/15, which includes SF/HOU).

    So, I’d probably either go SF/GB & SF/NYG … or spread SF/GB/NYG/MIN over your 4 picks.

  • Thaddeus

    In my large pool, it is roughly 36% NYG, 31% SF, 9% Min, 8% GB, 6% Cin, all others <2%. I have several entries, so I have every team available on at least 1 entry. What were your top pick be under these ratios? Would you consider any team other than SF & GB (keeping in mind I can take several teams on different entries)?

  • JoeP

    It was week 2 when they were chosen against TB… that is when we went with Cincy instead.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Interesting. What does your pool’s pick history look like? Are people being much riskier? Or does it look a lot like the pick% values we’ve posted? If they are taking extra risks, then SF will be less popular, and I’d go ahead and use them. If people are still playing conservatively, your MIN strategy is an interesting one.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yes, they are an avoid because they are too risky, based on the spread, money line, and TR odds.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Given those projected picks, I’d go HOU if you have them. If not, then GB.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yes, and there are fractional values in there because I averaged the counts from projections based on our new (incorporates preseason projections) and old (only takes into account results this season) power ratings.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I’d split, since the point of 2 entries is to spread your risk out, and avoid them both being knocked out in the same week. You have a higher chance of both surviving if you don’t split, but also a higher chance of both being knocked out.

    It’s more of a personal preference than a solid rule, though.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


    Did past weeks in your pool closely resemble the public pick% we publish? If not, probably not wise to trust them going forward.

    On the bright side, you are on the biggest fave of the week, so there’s a good chance their popularity doesn’t really matter.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I honestly have no idea how low the wins tiebreaker is going to go, so it’s tough to advise. Do you know how low the tiebreaker was in past pools?

    Regardless, NO, Washington and St. Louis are not worth the risk this week. They’re not even favorites. If the tiebreaker is usually ridiculously low (140?) then Carolina may be. Or MIN/CHI could be good picks.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I’d add CHI to that top tier with SF/GB. Top pick is still SF by a hair.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hmm, so they were the 2nd-biggest fave early that week, and the biggest one that didn’t have a ton of future value. That make me think that those people will move to SF this week (biggest fave without a ton of future value). So, maybe stay off SF and go with NYG.

  • StevenB

    My pool has about 70 out of 700 left. This week, it looks like about 35% will be on NYG, and 35% will be on SF. I’ve used NYG and GB. I’m thinking about 10% will be on GB. I don’t think many (any?) will be on CHI. So, assuming my guesses are correct, is SF still my best bet, or CHI?

  • JoeP

    My thoughts exactly, since I believe the vast majority will be on SF and Green Bay, both of which I would like in pocket coming up.

  • Tommy (NY)

    David, welcome back!!! Was happy that in your absence your replacement went perfect. My question for you is this. I am in a pool thats started at 5000 and is down to about 760. Amazingly I still have all 13 of my entries still alive thanks to you guys. I am a bit confused as to how I should approach this moving forward. How would you play my 13 entries this week? Also, In this pool I am in starting in week 10 or 11 I need to start picking 2 teams. Does this play into your strategy at all. Finally, is it ever worth it for me to take a gamble and play a few picks on the RAMS tonight? Just wondering. Thank you. Anxiously await your reply.

  • in it to win it

    Need help! I am assuming SF but here is the breakdown of the three of us left in my pool: Me: HOU/NYG/CHI/BALT Player1: HOU/NYG/CHI/BALT Player 2: DET/SD/CH/HOU Player 1 and I have been in synch, unfortubately… I can see Player 2 using NYG this week and Player 1 and I using SF. I know I am over analyzing but need help! Thoughts? Picks have to be in on Thursday before game time. THANK YOU!

  • Tommy (NY)

    David, Welcome back. So far havent lost any teams largely because of you guys. I am in a pool that started at 5000 and is down to about 760. Amazingly I still have all 13 of my entries and wanted to know how you would use them this week. Also do you take into account at all that during weeks 10-16 some pools make you select two teams such as mine. Any wisdom in putting a pick or two on RAMS tonight?

  • Bob Sanders

    Hi David; great insight, as always
    In my pool (standard rules), half the pool has already taken NYG. No one has taken SF. Does that change what I should do? I assume more people may be on SF than expected because NYG has been used by a lot of people.

  • http://www.facebook.com/colleen.doylemoran Colleen Doyle Moran

    I have 12 people left in my pool half have already taken NYG & 10 have chicago.I have used phily, SF chi & Hou. Do you think GB or NYG is the better choice?

  • tampamike37

    Love your column Dave. I run a small pool that had 18 people to start and only 8 left. I set it up that everyone could rebuy for double the entry before week 6 if they lost. This is the last week to rebuy. I was thinking what you were saying regarding the small pools and taking San Fran this week, however looking at NYG future schedule I don’t see a better matchup than against the browns this week. With only 8 people left, am I looking to much into future games with NYG since there could be other teams to pick? I have used Hou, Philly, Bal, Det-(reentered).

  • StevenB

    I’m also in a pool with similar numbers, and I’ve used the same teams: GB, CHI, HOU, and NYG. I think that the number of people on SF will be 35-40%. I can use SF, or MIN. How high does SF’s popularity have to be to warrant using MIN?

  • My3Boys

    No. I can see the % of picks in the pool. It is now 40% picking the Giants and 30% picking San Fran. Not all picks are in, but that is the trend. Still go with San Fran??

  • My3Boys

    In other words, 28 people have picked the Giants and 22 have picked San Fran. Not too much different.

  • devastator

    I picked SF this week and the only other guy left in my pool picked Houston, which was a bit odd because he has SF, NYG and GB available as well. Go Jets!!!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Given the drop in CHI’s line to -4.5 at several books, I think they’re becoming too risky, so I’d stick with SF.

  • http://www.facebook.com/daniel.silberfarb Daniel Silberfarb

    There was a higher-than-normal pick of the Giants in week 2 (regional bias). Guess it makes sense less would pick them now. Ah well. Still happy with the SF pick.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The RAMS??? No.

    Wow, 13 perfect entries is pretty amazing, given the upsets that have occurred this year. How have you been splitting them so far? All of them on 2 or 3 teams, or have you been spreading them out a ton?

    Given that you have to make more picks in later weeks, future value should play a bigger role in your decision. Mainly that just means you should be sure to stay away from HOU, NE, BAL. But it also means that MIN becomes an intriguing choice, if you want to dedicate a couple of entries to a riskier pick.

    I’d say the best 2 choices for you are still SF & GB. But if you want to add a third team and split it something like 5/5/3 or 6/5/2, I might make that third team MIN. Other options for that third team (or a fourth) would be CHI/NYG.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Hmm, tough one. It seems like Player 2 hasn’t picked the most popular team in any week — any reason you expect him to switch that up this week and take NYG?

    You and Player 1 may end up getting each other into trouble by trying to outsmart each other. If you both think “oh, the other guy will take SF, I think I’ll take GB instead”, then you both end up on GB while Player 2 takes SF or NYG … that would be a bad spot for you. It’s rough.

    IF IF IF your 2 opponents choose SF & NYG, then GB are the best choice. However, even in that situation, they are only slightly better than SF.

    On the other hand, if your opponents choose SF & GB, and you choose GB, you’re in a considerably worse spot.

    I think the downside of the GB pick backfiring is larger than the upside of it working out, so I’d go conservative with SF this week.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    You are right, so I’d say SF or GB are both decent picks.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    The cut line for me is around a 3/2 ratio of NYG to GB pickers. So if you think NYG will be at least 1.5 times as popular as GB (they are about 3.5 times as popular in the data above, well over the cut line), I’d go GB. Otherwise I’d go NYG.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yes, 8 people is small, you should not be worried about the end of the season.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    It’s a pretty huge drop odd in safety, so really high. Maybe if SF is over 40% and MIN is under 5%, it’s about a toss up then.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Seems pretty much a toss up between SF and GB then.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess


  • R Dog

    And I obviously still pick Green Bay if my four opponents go SF-SF-SF-NY, right? And I still go SF if my four opponents go NY-NY-NY-SF, right?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    For the first case, yes, you are right. For the second case, GB and SF are basically a toss up.

  • ron

    Hey David, I’m in a pool of 7, down from 60 to start. I have used HOU, CIN, CHI and BAL. Of the other 6 remaining in the pool, 5 have used NYG, 4 have used HOU, 3 have used CHI, 3 have used GB. Nobody has used SF – so I’m expecting a lot of SF picks and maybe a HOU or GB. Since only one other team can even pick NYG, I’m thinking that should be my pick this week. Do you concur?

  • http://www.facebook.com/kyle.sundet.79 Kyle Sundet

    I am in a pool with 5 people left. All have SF left and only 2 can use the NYG. I have used Hou, Cin, Dal and Bal. Is SF still best choice or is there a better option?

  • http://www.facebook.com/kyle.sundet.79 Kyle Sundet

    I am in a pool with 5 left. All can use SF and only 2 can use NYG. Is SF still the better choice? I have used Hou, Cin, Dal and Bal.

  • geddy1001

    Thanks David -Good call in that two of the other players picked SFO and one picked NYG – Should be an interesting weekend!

  • http://www.facebook.com/dave.bernstein1 Dave Bernstein

    There are 12 people still alive in my pool and I’ve played your recommended picks every week, so firstly, thank you for your excellent analysis and advice each week. Many of my opponents played the Ravens last week (8 of 11), but none have used San Francisco OR Green Bay yet. 6 have used the Giants and just 4 have used the Texans. I suspect some may have picked Arizona last night but won’t be able to see their picks until noon on Sunday. Based on this, I think the remaining picks this week will be mostly for 49ers and the Giants, with a few picking the Texans and Packers possibly… and maybe 1 or 2 (possibly) going with the Ravens. After this week, I don’t see another good opportunity to use the Ravens until week 10 vs. the Raiders. I think I can use San Fran in either week 7 or week 10. Based on this and the picks I think my opponents will make this week, would it make sense to go with Baltimore this week? My pool does not use the spread so that is not a factor… just thinking that the Ravens would be contrarian and I don’t think my pool will go past week 10. I’m very interested in your opinion so please let me know if you think this strategy makes sense or if there is something I’m missing here.

  • in it to win it

    Big big big thanks!
    Had to give you an update … Player 2 didn’t get his pick in on time, so he is out. And super big shocker here, Player 1 also picked SF.
    I truely value your input. I will be hitting you up week, assuming SF wins, it’s just two of us now!

  • R Dog

    So forgot to include one potentially important unique rule to my pool: the “Tie Breaker” rule: the tiebreaker rule is as follows:
    If all surviving primary pool entries choose a losing team prior to the end of the regular season, the following tiebreaker will apply (entries will be eliminated at each step, until a winner is determined)
    1. The entry whose selection for the last week of play scored the most points during its game that week is considered the winner.
    2. The entry whose selection scored the most points one week prior to the losing game (or the last week of the season) is considered the winner.
    3. The entry whose selection scored the most points two weeks prior to the losing game (or the last week of the season) is considered the winner.
    4. The entry whose selection scored the most points three weeks prior to the losing game (or the last week of the season) is considered the winner.
    5. The tiebreaker will continue using points scored by the selection from the previous week until the tie is broken.
    The team I picked last week (Denver) scored the second most points last week, behind one person who picked Houston. The person who picked Houston has picked Detroit-Cincinnati-Chicago-Houston in the first four weeks. Before thinking about the tiebreaker rule (per ourabove ), I am leaning toward Green Bay because I feel more than 1 person will pick SF, but now I realize that a big factor is who this person picks because I hold the tiebreaker over everyone who matches my pick this week except for this person. I am thinking he might pick NY this week because of his previous history of picking non-favorite, not as popular teams (I think SF will be more popular this week in my pool than NY). Do you think I should go with SF rather than Green Bay in this case, even if the picks look like this: SF-SF-SF-NY-Houston (with me going with SF and my opponent going with NY)?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yes, I think NYG sounds good given your opponents probable picks.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Ha! I’m actually going to guess that it has more to do with the SF line rising after I wrote the article. :)

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    It’s really tough to say, and depends heavily on who your opponents pick. You pretty much want to pick the least popular of SF/NYG/GB. Hard for me to say who that will be in your case.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    I think BAL is reasonable given the terms you laid out. In a small pool, you are right that future value is less important, which makes their main negative less damaging. It sounds like either BAL or GB would be decent for you.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tony.santinello.3 Tony Santinello

    David..is there any rule of thumb when you have multiple entries left. I have two entries left is it just safe to take the top two picks for the week and split them up between entries? For example this week do I go..GB/SF or SF/SF. It’s seems like doubling up is like putting all my eggs in one basket?

  • Ducer

    I crunched some more numbers:

    – there are 6 people who have
    taken both the Giants and the Texans. I’d guess most will
    pick 49ers this week…maybe 1-2 of these will go Packers.

    there are only 3 others who have NOT used the Texans yet. I have to
    assume all 3 will pick Houston this week (I WOULD!). To be prudent,
    let’s assume 1 goes another way…could be 49ers, Packers, or
    Giants…no way to know.

    – There are 7 remaining players who
    potentially COULD pick the Giants this week (all have already used the
    Texans). The question is how many will? At least a couple of these
    will probably go for the 49ers instead.

    With the Giants having
    almost no future value and the potential for the 49ers to get more play
    in my pool, I’m wondering if BIg Blue is the way to go…..

    (Reminder: I am 1 of 18 at this point.)

  • http://www.facebook.com/dave.bernstein1 Dave Bernstein

    I burned GB last week so I’m going to go ahead and ah BAL this week and hope GB and/or NYG are upset… so far your strategy of avoiding the most popular pick each week has certainly paid off for me.. thanks!

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Oh, haha, I didn’t consider Option C: opponent forfeits without making a pick. Nice!

    In that case, SF ended up being the right pick. When you’re head to head, you essentially just want to maximize near-term survival odds, and hope your opponent makes a riskier pick (either because he’s trying to get too cute, or because he doesn’t have any safe teams left).

  • Ducer

    …or maybe I’m missing the obvious…

    Do the Packers offer the best value here?

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Not really sure how that tiebreaker affects it, but being the third man on SF is worse than the 1st on GB.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Yeah, I think the main point of having two entries is to spread the risk, so you a single upset can’t eliminate you. Unless there is a week where you really don’t have more than one good option, I’d try to take 2 different teams with your two entries. SF/GB works this week.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    Tough to say, but if you really thing twice as many people will pick SF than NYG, don’t pick SF. NYG or GB could be the right pick, just depends on how your opponents’ picks turn out. Given the uncertainty, I might go NYG.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    No, sounds like GB for you, given those ridiculous SF/NYG numbers.

  • http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

    FYI, we have a newer Survivor post up. I’m not going to be paying any more attention to this one.

  • R Dog

    Cool, thanks. Went with GB

  • http://www.facebook.com/Steverinie Steve Wang

    No … thank YOU for YOUR suggestions. 😉 I’m one of six left out of 70!