NFL Rankings Update and Analysis: Week 6

October 15, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman

Coming into NFL Week 6, here’s how our NFL predictive ratings see all 32 teams, and how our rankings compare to the human-driven ESPN.com NFL Power Rankings.

Quick Rankings Primer

When we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our NFL predictive rankings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.

Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:

A team that loses a game can still move up in our rankings (e.g. if they lose by less than expected)
A team that wins a game can still move down our rankings (e.g. if they win by less than expected)
A team with several losses can still be ranked highly (e.g. if they have faced a tough schedule, or potentially just had a few fluke losses)

In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of preseason ratings (which you can reference on our NFL rankings page) decays as the season goes on.

General Highlights Entering NFL Week 6

The Patriots have strengthened their hold on the No. 1 ranking, going up 1.3 points after beating Dallas 30-6 on the road. The Pats have been pretty dominant to this point and are 2.3 points higher in our ratings over second place Green Bay, though we still project New England to end the season with 3 losses. Our rankings for spots 2-4 (GB, Denver, Seattle) remain unchanged with very little movement among those teams. Denver’s rating slipped a fraction of a point after the slightly less-than-expected win at Oakland.
Despite a 2-3 record, Seattle remains No. 4. Seattle’s rating decline was negligible after losing by three points to Cincinnati on the road in a game in which the Bengals were favored by one point, according to last week’s predictive ratings. From a wins and losses perspective, the Seahawks are losing ground to Arizona in the NFC West race, now trailing by two games, but they still face the Cardinals twice this season, and we currently see Seattle as a slightly better team (only by about 1 point though, it’s close).
The Cardinals jumped Cincinnati in the rankings, rising to No. 5 with another blowout win, this time over Detroit. Arizona rebounded from their surprising Week 4 loss, and resumed it’s ratings climb. Sitting at 5.2 points above average, Arizona’s rating is now ahead of where it was before their loss to St. Louis.
Baltimore and Kansas City fell in our rankings after tough losses, but are still rated in as “middle of the pack” teams despite their 1-4 records. Both teams have seen their share of injuries to this point, and have negative turnover margins as well as low margins of losses vs. some difficult opponents. That luck could start to change at any time, although with Jamaal Charles out, KC faces a tough obstacle and it wouldn’t be a shock to see their rating continue to fall in upcoming weeks.
There are several matchups between highly ranked teams this week, including Arizona at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati at Buffalo, and New England at Indianapolis. Fans will also be intrigued by the undefeated Panthers’ visit to Seattle after a bye week.

Biggest Gainers Last Week

Team	Rating	Change	New Rank	Old Rank	Result
Arizona	5.2	+1.4	5	6	W 42-17 @ #21 Detroit
New England	9.6	+1.3	1	1	W 30-6 @ #15 Dallas
Philadelphia	2.5	+0.8	8	9	W 39-17 vs. #23 New Orleans
Cleveland	-3.5	+0.8	24	25	W 33-30 @ #8 Baltimore
Chicago	-5.4	+0.8	30	30	W 18-17 @ #11 Kansas City
San Francisco	-4.6	+0.5	29	29	L 30-27 @ #18 NY Giants
Pittsburgh	3.1	+0.4	7	7	W 24-20 @ #19 San Diego
Indianapolis	1.5	+0.3	10	14	W 27-20 @ #24 Houston
Green Bay	7.3	+0.2	2	2	W 24-10 vs. #20 St. Louis
Tennessee	-4.1	+0.2	26	26	L 14-13 vs. #13 Buffalo
Oakland	-4.6	+0.2	28	28	L 16-10 vs. #3 Denver

The aforementioned Cardinals beat Detroit on the road by 25 points, in a game they were favored to win by only two points, according to last week’s predictive ratings. Arizona has faced one of the easiest schedules in football, but they also have four wins by at least 12 points.
Philadelphia is coming along, easily picking up their second win of the season by clobbering New Orleans by 22 points at home. They’ve faced a below average schedule, but have a strong win vs. the Jets on the road and played Atlanta and Washington close in losses. The Eagles now face difficult tests vs. the Giants and Panthers over the next two weeks.
Cleveland and Chicago saw nice increases with upset wins on Sunday. Cleveland won despite being 9-point underdogs on the road, according to the predictive ratings, while the Bears were approximately 11-point dogs. Granted, both teams benefited from major opponent injuries.
Indianapolis stepped up in the ratings after a seven point victory on the road, even with Andrew Luck sidelined. Vegas favored the Texans in the game by five points after Luck was declared inactive, while the predictive ratings (which don’t adjust for injuries) favored Houston by one point. What happens to the Colts this week will be interesting, especially if Luck returns vs. New England.

Biggest Losers Last Week

Team	Rating	Change	New Rank	Old Rank	Result
Detroit	-2.3	-1.4	22	21	L 42-17 vs. #6 Arizona
Dallas	-0.3	-1.2	19	15	L 30-6 vs. #1 New England
New Orleans	-3.3	-0.9	23	23	L 39-17 @ #9 Philadelphia
Baltimore	1.1	-0.8	13	8	L 33-30 vs. #25 Cleveland
Kansas City	0.8	-0.7	14	11	L18-17 vs. #30 Chicago
NY Giants	-0.1	-0.4	17	18	W 30-27 vs. #29 San Francisco
Houston	-3.5	-0.4	25	24	L 27-20 vs. #14 Indianapolis
San Diego	-0.1	-0.3	18	19	L 24-20 vs. #7 Pittsburgh
Denver	6.3	-0.3	3	3	W 16-10 @ #28 Oakland
Atlanta	0.7	-0.2	15	16	W 25-19 vs. #27 Washington

The Lions are the only remaining winless team, and they played like a winless team on Sunday. Detroit lost by 25 points, and benched starting quarterback Matthew Stafford in the second half. Arizona was only favored by about two points, according to the predictive ratings. Detroit hopes to pick up their first victory of the season this week vs. Chicago.
The loss of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant is continuing to show in Dallas’ results, with a 24-point loss to New England at home. The Cowboys were only about four point underdogs, according to the predictive ratings, which don’t proactively account for injuries. Vegas favored the Pats by 10 points, and they blew that line out of the water.
The Giants improved their record to 3-2, but are still one of the week’s losers in the ratings due to a too-close win vs. a bad 49ers team. Playing at home, the Giants were about eight point favorites according to our ratings. However, New York benefited from some good fortune in the rankings, actually increasing on spot because other teams suffered worse ratings declines.
Denver’s third spot in the ranking holds, but their rating fell. Their margin of victory vs. Oakland was just below expectations, and the strength of their past victories also deteriorated with Baltimore, Kansas City, and Detroit all falling this week.

The TR NFL Rankings: Week 6 Edition

We compared our Predictive Rankings to the ESPN.com power rankings, which were updated on Tuesday, October 6.

Teams We Like Better Than ESPN: Denver, Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, Detroit, New Orleans, Houston, Tennessee
Teams ESPN Likes More Than We Do: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Atlanta, Carolina, NY Giants, San Diego, Dallas, St. Louis, Cleveland, Washington, Oakland, San Francisco, Chicago, Tampa Bay

The top of ESPN’s rankings remain similar to the TR rankings, with the major exception of Seattle, which ESPN ranks four spots lower.

Below the TR top seven teams, though, there continue to be major differences.

The weekend’s results for Philadelphia, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and several other teams moved them up the ESPN rankings substantially, and in some cases simply moved those teams closer to where they already were in the TR rankings.

There are also a few puzzling changes from ESPN, though, such as pushing San Diego up three spots after losing at home to the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, and demoting Chicago one spot after beating Kansas City on the road. An apparent assumption there is that the Jamaal Charles injury completely changed the game, which the Bears were losing 17-3 when he went out. That may be giving KC a bit too much credit.

The Complete TR NFL Rankings (as of Tue 10/13)

“Rating” refers to the team’s predictive rating, which indicates points better than an average team on a neutral field
“SOS” refers to the team’s strength of schedule rating for games played so far this season

Team	TR Rank	ESPN Rank	TR Change	ESPN Change	Rating	Result	SOS
New England (4-0)	1	1			9.6	W 30-6 @ #15 Dallas	0.1
Green Bay (5-0)	2	2			7.3	W 24-10 vs. #20 St. Louis	-1.2
Denver (5-0)	3	4		-1	6.3	W 16-10 @ #28 Oakland	-0.1
Seattle (2-3)	4	8		-1	6.0	L 27-24 @ #5 Cincinnati	1.9
Arizona (4-1)	5	6	+1	-1	5.2	W 42-17 @ #21 Detroit	-3.6
Cincinnati (5-0)	6	5	-1		4.1	W 27-24 vs. #4 Seattle	0.1
Pittsburgh (3-2)	7	9		+1	3.1	W 24-20 @ #19 San Diego	1.8
Philadelphia (2-3)	8	15	+1	+7	2.5	W 39-17 vs. #23 New Orleans	-0.3
NY Jets (3-1)	9	11	+1	-1	1.8	Bye	-0.8
Indianapolis (3-2)	10	13	+4	+3	1.5	W 27-20 @ #24 Houston	-1.6
Minnesota (2-2)	11	16	+1	-1	1.2	Bye	-0.2
Buffalo (3-2)	12	10	+1	+2	1.2	W 14-13 @ #26 Tennesee	0.5
Baltimore (1-4)	13	23	-1	-1	1.1	L 33-30 vs. #25 Cleveland	1.6
Kansas City (1-4)	14	19	-1	-1	0.8	L18-17 vs. #30 Chicago	2.3
Atlanta (5-0)	15	3	+1	+3	0.7	W 25-19 vs. #27 Washington	-1.6
Carolina (4-0)	16	7	+1	+1	0.7	Bye	-5.4
NY Giants (3-2)	17	12	+1	+3	-0.1	W 30-27 vs. #29 San Francisco	-2.0
San Diego (2-3)	18	14	+1	+3	-0.1	L 24-20 vs. #7 Pittsburgh	-0.1
Dallas (2-3)	19	18	-1	-1	-0.3	L 30-6 vs. #1 New England	1.2
St Louis (2-3)	20	17		-1	-0.5	L 24-10 @ #2 Green Bay	3.8
Miami (1-3)	21	29	+1	+1	-1.2	Bye	-1.5
Detroit (0-5)	22	31	-1	-1	-2.3	L 42-17 vs. #6 Arizona	4.2
New Orleans (1-4)	23	26		-1	-3.3	L 39-17 @ #9 Philadelphia	0.4
Cleveland (2-3)	24	20	+1	+5	-3.5	W 33-30 @ #8 Baltimore	-0.8
Houston (1-4)	25	30	-1	-1	-3.5	L 27-20 vs. #14 Indianapolis	-1.4
Tennessee (1-3)	26	27		-1	-4.1	L 14-13 vs. #13 Buffalo	-2.1
Washington (2-3)	27	21		+3	-4.4	L 25-19 @ #16 Atlanta	-0.4
Oakland (2-3)	28	22		-1	-4.6	L 16-10 vs. #3 Denver	-0.1
San Francisco (1-4)	29	25		+2	-4.6	L 30-27 @ #18 NY Giants	3.7
Chicago (2-3)	30	24		-1	-5.4	W 18-17 @ #11 Kansas City	1.8
Tampa Bay (2-3)	31	28	+1	+4	-7.4	W 38-31 vs. #31 Jacksonville	-4.3
Jacksonville (1-4)	32	32	-1	-1	-7.6	L 38-31 @ #32 Tampa Bay	0.1