NFL Rankings Update and Analysis: Week 4

In this post, we’re going to review our recent NFL rankings, and see how they compare to what the human experts think. For the human viewpoint, we’re using ESPN.com’s NFL power rankings as our basis of comparison.

Here’s how things look going into Week 4.

Quick Rankings Primer

When we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our NFL predictive rankings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.

Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:

  • A team that loses a game can still move up in our rankings (e.g. if they lose by less than expected)
  • A team that wins a game can still move down our rankings (e.g. if they win by less than expected)
  • A team with several losses can still be ranked highly (e.g. if they have faced a tough schedule, or potentially just had a few fluke losses)

In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find here) decays as the season goes on.

General Highlights Entering Week 4

  • Entering their bye week, No. 1 New England remains the leader of the pack after clobbering Jacksonville 51-17. The Patriots have two strong wins vs. Pittsburgh and at Buffalo, and they also defeated Jacksonville by substantially more than our ratings expected (the Patriots won by 34; our ratings predicted a 17-point margin, which ended up being more accurate than the 14 point spread). From a rating perspective, the huge victory also extended the space between the Pats and everyone else in the NFL.
  • Green Bay stands atop the NFC, but Seattle is very close behind. Seattle got a nice boost after winning their first game of the season by 26 points against a depleted Bears offense. (It’s worth noting, however, that we don’t manually adjust our power ratings for injuries, so we’re probably giving the Seahawks a bit too much credit for that win right now. But if the Bears continue to play poorly, the relative boost Seattle is getting from this win will decrease in the future). Meanwhile, NFC West foe Arizona improved to 3-0 with an impressive 40-point win over San Francisco, moving them up to the No. 3 ranking in the NFC and No. 5 ranking overall.
  • Pro football in Florida has seen better days. Tampa Bay (No. 31) and Jacksonville (No. 32) round out bottom of the Week 4 rankings, while Miami had the biggest drop of the week (eight spots to No. 18). That drop was the result of a triple whammy: Miami lost by 27 points to Buffalo, in a game where our ratings favored the Fins by about 4, plus Miami’s first two game results now look worse after both Washington (whom they beat) and Jacksonville (whom they lost to) lost by more than expected.

Biggest Gainers Last Week

TeamRatingChangeNew RankOld RankResult
Buffalo2.72.3816W 41-14 @ #10 Miami
Arizona4.62.258W. 47-7 vs. #24 San Francisco
New England8.41.311W 51-17 vs. #31 Jacksonville
Atlanta-0.61.31923W 39-28 @ #9 Dallas
Minnesota1.00.91518W 31-14 vs. #14 San Diego
Philadelphia2.10.81015W 24-17 @ #12 NY Jets
Seattle6.60.844W 26-0 vs. #29 Chicago
Oakland-4.90.82830W 27-20 @ #26 Cleveland
Denver7.00.523W 24-12 @ #20 Detroit
Cincinnati3.40.465W 28-24 @ #13 Baltimore
  • Buffalo is the biggest gainer, with what may seem like a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act through three games. The Bills surprised many people by beating Indianapolis in Week 1, only to allow 40 points in an 8-point loss to New England in Week 2 at home, in which they were far behind for the majority of the game. In Week 3, they clobbered the Dolphins on the road and jumped eight spots in the rankings, plus the loss to New England got a little bit easier to stomach after the Pats annihilated Jacksonville.
  • Atlanta continues to make progress, beating the Cowboys without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant by 11 points. The Falcons entered the season with an 8.5 win total in Vegas, and have started off 3-0 by beating three consecutive NFC East opponents. Blind to the Cowboys’ personnel issues, the predictive ratings favored Dallas by a touchdown, but it was still a solid win (the Cowboys were 1-point favorites in Vegas).
  • After beating Cleveland, Oakland is 2-1 and getting out of the cellar after picking up their second win over an AFC North opponent in three tries as a Vegas underdog; our ratings expected a Cleveland win by about 5. It’s some progress for an organization that’s finished no better than 30th in our predictive rankings in each of the last three seasons.

Biggest Losers Last Week

TeamRatingChangeNew RankOld RankResult
Miami-0.4-2.21810L 41=14 vs. #16 Buffalo
San Francisco-4.7-2.12624L 47-7 @ #8 Arizona
Jacksonville-8.1-1.33231L 51-17 @ #1 New England
San Diego0.4-1.11614L 31-14 @ #18 Minnesota
Dallas1.2-1.1139L 39-28 vs. #23 Atlanta
Cleveland-4.7-0.92726L 27-20 vs. #30 Oakland
NY Jets1.0-0.81412L 24-17 vs. #15 Philadelphia
Chicago-6.2-0.63029L 26-0 @ #4 Seattle
Detroit-1.4-0.62220L 24-12 vs. #3 Denver
Washington-5.1-0.52928L 32-21 @ #21 NY Giants
  • The aforementioned Dolphins were considered to be a sleeper by many prognosticators entering the season, yet they’ve dropped off the map quickly in the early going. The Fins plummeted eight spots in the rankings to No. 18 this week, and are currently 10 spots lower than their No. 8 in preseason ranking. Sitting at 1-2, they have an important division game vs. the Jets this week.
  • San Francisco has suffered consecutive lopsided losses after beating Minnesota in Week 1, falling to the Steelers and Cardinals on the road over the last two weeks by a combined 65 points. The Niners dropped another two spots to No. 26.
  • The Bears fell one more spot in the rankings, and are now in a clear triumvirate of the NFL’s worst teams with Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. Worse, Chicago could be headed further down in the future with their apparent firesale going on. The Bears traded away DE Jared Allen and LB Jon Bostic earlier this week.

The TR NFL Rankings: Week 4 Edition

We compared our Predictive Rankings to the ESPN.com power rankings, which were updated on Tuesday, September 29.

  • Teams We Like Better Than ESPN: Denver, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Baltimore, NY Jets, San Diego, Miami, Detroit, New Orleans, San Francisco, Chicago
  • Teams ESPN Likes Better Than We Do: Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Minnesota, Carolina, Atlanta, St. Louis, NY Giants, Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland, Oakland, Washington, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville

Unsurprisingly, the human voters at ESPN seem to be more reactive to recent results, moving Miami, Atlanta, and Oakland substantially further up based on what they’ve done (or not done) recently. They’re also basing their rankings more on win-loss record (see Baltimore), while the TR rankings give much higher consideration to factors like win margins and schedule strength.

In addition, after only three games, how a team was expected to do in the preseason by our models and by Vegas still has an impact on our ratings. It’s dangerous to completely change your opinion of a team based on only a few game results, because flukes happen.

The 0-3 Ravens being at No. 12 in our Week 4 rankings serves as a good example of these effects.

Baltimore has lost two close games to strong opponents (Denver and Cincinnati), and while their loss to Oakland hurt, it was on the road, and there are is an early indication now that the Raiders may not end up being quite the doormat they’ve been in recent years. Lastly, the Ravens were supposed to be a good team this year, and it’s simply too early to conclude that’s not true.

You might argue that a No. 12 ranking is still high, but from a ratings perspective Baltimore is essentially in a cluster of four closely rated teams ranked between 12 and 15. Also, in Vegas right now, the Ravens are essentially in the middle of the pack in terms of their futures odds to win the AFC and Super Bowl, and their 0-3 record counts as additional liability there (since win-loss record is used to determine division winners and home field advantage in the playoffs). So in terms of simply assessing how good of a team they are, Baltimore is almost certainly better than the No. 22 ranking ESPN gives them this week, and has probably just suffered some early season bad luck.

We’ll see how things play out in the weeks ahead. Quite frankly, while we don’t expect everyone (or even close to everyone) to agree with our rankings, some of these ESPN rankings are real noggin scratchers. How a team like Buffalo drops two spots after winning by 27 as a 1.5 point Vegas underdog is beyond us.

The Complete TR NFL Rankings (as of Tue 9/29)

  • “Predictive” refers to the team’s predictive rating, which indicates points better than an average team on a neutral field
  • “SOS” refers to the team’s strength of schedule rating for games played so far this season.
TeamTR RankESPN RankTR ChangeESPN ChangeRatingResultSOS
New England (3-0)118.4W 51-17 vs. #31 Jacksonville-0.4
Denver (3-0)24+1+17.0W 24-12 @ #20 Detroit1.9
Green Bay (3-0)33-1-16.8W 38-28 vs. #7 Kansas City0.1
Seattle (1-2)476.6W 26-0 vs. #29 Chicago1.8
Arizona (3-0)52+3+14.6W. 47-7 vs. #24 San Francisco-5.5
Cincinnati (3-0)65-1+13.4W 28-24 @ #13 Baltimore0.0
Pittsburgh (2-1)78-1-43.3W 12-6 @ #19 St. Louis2.1
Buffalo (2-1)810+8-22.7W 41-14 @ #10 Miami2.3
Kansas City (1-2)912-2-22.3L 38-28 @ #2 Green Bay4.9
Philadelphia (1-2)1017+5+52.1W 24-17 @ #12 NY Jets1.5
Indianapolis (1-2)1114+41.8W 35-33 vs. #11 Indianapolis0.8
Baltimore (0-3)1222+1-51.3L 28-24 vs. #5 Cincinnati2.6
Dallas (2-1)1311-4+11.2L 39-28 vs. #23 Atlanta-0.8
NY Jets (2-1)1415-2-61.0L 24-17 vs. #15 Philadelphia-1.1
Minnesota (2-1)1513+3+31.0W 31-14 vs. #14 San Diego-2.9
San Diego (1-2)1618-2-50.4L 31-14 @ #18 Minnesota1.9
Carolina (3-0)179+50.2W 27-22 vs. #25 New Orleans-5.2
Miami (1-2)1823-8-8-0.4L 41-14 vs. #16 Buffalo-2.5
Atlanta (3-0)196+4+5-0.6W 39-28 @ #9 Dallas1.7
St Louis (1-2)2019-1-1.1L 12-6 vs. #6 Pittsburgh0.6
NY Giants (1-2)2116+10-1.1W 32-21 vs. #28 Washington-2.4
Detroit (0-3)2225-2-1-1.4L 24-12 vs. #3 Denver3.8
Houston (1-2)2321-1+4-1.6W 19-9 vs. #32 Tampa Bay-2.3
New Orleans (0-3)2431+1-1-2.8L 27-22 @ #17 Carolina0.0
Tennessee (1-2)2524+2+3-4.3L 35-33 vs. #11 Indianapolis-2.3
San Francisco (1-2)2628-2-8-4.7L 47-7 @ #8 Arizona3.5
Cleveland (1-2)2726-1-5-4.7L 27-20 vs. #30 Oakland-3.9
Oakland (2-1)2820+2+8-4.9W 27-20 @ #26 Cleveland-1.0
Washington (1-2)2927-1-4-5.1L 32-21 @ #21 NY Giants-1.9
Chicago (0-3)3032-1-6.2L 26-0 @ #4 Seattle4.6
Tampa Bay (1-2)3130+1-1-6.9L 19-9 @ #22 Houston-2.1
Jacksonville (1-2)3229-1+2-8.1L 51-17 @ #1 New England0.4