September 30, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman
In this post, we’re going to review our recent NFL rankings, and see how they compare to what the human experts think. For the human viewpoint, we’re using ESPN.com’s NFL power rankings as our basis of comparison.
Here’s how things look going into Week 4.
When we refer to the TR rankings, we mean our NFL predictive rankings, which are our core measure of team strength. These rankings are designed, as the name implies, to predict future outcomes of games.
Our rankings are driven by margins of victory. Unlike human voters and opinions, they don’t care only about wins and losses, which can be highly influenced by luck (e.g. a poorly timed fumble). More specifically, this means:
In addition, our rankings factor in a blend of season performance to date plus each team’s preseason rating, since the results of a small number of early season games can often be misleading. However, the impact of the preseason rating (which you can find here) decays as the season goes on.
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | 2.7 | 2.3 | 8 | 16 | W 41-14 @ #10 Miami |
Arizona | 4.6 | 2.2 | 5 | 8 | W. 47-7 vs. #24 San Francisco |
New England | 8.4 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | W 51-17 vs. #31 Jacksonville |
Atlanta | -0.6 | 1.3 | 19 | 23 | W 39-28 @ #9 Dallas |
Minnesota | 1.0 | 0.9 | 15 | 18 | W 31-14 vs. #14 San Diego |
Philadelphia | 2.1 | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | W 24-17 @ #12 NY Jets |
Seattle | 6.6 | 0.8 | 4 | 4 | W 26-0 vs. #29 Chicago |
Oakland | -4.9 | 0.8 | 28 | 30 | W 27-20 @ #26 Cleveland |
Denver | 7.0 | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | W 24-12 @ #20 Detroit |
Cincinnati | 3.4 | 0.4 | 6 | 5 | W 28-24 @ #13 Baltimore |
Team | Rating | Change | New Rank | Old Rank | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami | -0.4 | -2.2 | 18 | 10 | L 41=14 vs. #16 Buffalo |
San Francisco | -4.7 | -2.1 | 26 | 24 | L 47-7 @ #8 Arizona |
Jacksonville | -8.1 | -1.3 | 32 | 31 | L 51-17 @ #1 New England |
San Diego | 0.4 | -1.1 | 16 | 14 | L 31-14 @ #18 Minnesota |
Dallas | 1.2 | -1.1 | 13 | 9 | L 39-28 vs. #23 Atlanta |
Cleveland | -4.7 | -0.9 | 27 | 26 | L 27-20 vs. #30 Oakland |
NY Jets | 1.0 | -0.8 | 14 | 12 | L 24-17 vs. #15 Philadelphia |
Chicago | -6.2 | -0.6 | 30 | 29 | L 26-0 @ #4 Seattle |
Detroit | -1.4 | -0.6 | 22 | 20 | L 24-12 vs. #3 Denver |
Washington | -5.1 | -0.5 | 29 | 28 | L 32-21 @ #21 NY Giants |
We compared our Predictive Rankings to the ESPN.com power rankings, which were updated on Tuesday, September 29.
Unsurprisingly, the human voters at ESPN seem to be more reactive to recent results, moving Miami, Atlanta, and Oakland substantially further up based on what they’ve done (or not done) recently. They’re also basing their rankings more on win-loss record (see Baltimore), while the TR rankings give much higher consideration to factors like win margins and schedule strength.
In addition, after only three games, how a team was expected to do in the preseason by our models and by Vegas still has an impact on our ratings. It’s dangerous to completely change your opinion of a team based on only a few game results, because flukes happen.
The 0-3 Ravens being at No. 12 in our Week 4 rankings serves as a good example of these effects.
Baltimore has lost two close games to strong opponents (Denver and Cincinnati), and while their loss to Oakland hurt, it was on the road, and there are is an early indication now that the Raiders may not end up being quite the doormat they’ve been in recent years. Lastly, the Ravens were supposed to be a good team this year, and it’s simply too early to conclude that’s not true.
You might argue that a No. 12 ranking is still high, but from a ratings perspective Baltimore is essentially in a cluster of four closely rated teams ranked between 12 and 15. Also, in Vegas right now, the Ravens are essentially in the middle of the pack in terms of their futures odds to win the AFC and Super Bowl, and their 0-3 record counts as additional liability there (since win-loss record is used to determine division winners and home field advantage in the playoffs). So in terms of simply assessing how good of a team they are, Baltimore is almost certainly better than the No. 22 ranking ESPN gives them this week, and has probably just suffered some early season bad luck.
We’ll see how things play out in the weeks ahead. Quite frankly, while we don’t expect everyone (or even close to everyone) to agree with our rankings, some of these ESPN rankings are real noggin scratchers. How a team like Buffalo drops two spots after winning by 27 as a 1.5 point Vegas underdog is beyond us.
The Complete TR NFL Rankings (as of Tue 9/29)
Team | TR Rank | ESPN Rank | TR Change | ESPN Change | Rating | Result | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England (3-0) | 1 | 1 | 8.4 | W 51-17 vs. #31 Jacksonville | -0.4 | ||
Denver (3-0) | 2 | 4 | +1 | +1 | 7.0 | W 24-12 @ #20 Detroit | 1.9 |
Green Bay (3-0) | 3 | 3 | -1 | -1 | 6.8 | W 38-28 vs. #7 Kansas City | 0.1 |
Seattle (1-2) | 4 | 7 | 6.6 | W 26-0 vs. #29 Chicago | 1.8 | ||
Arizona (3-0) | 5 | 2 | +3 | +1 | 4.6 | W. 47-7 vs. #24 San Francisco | -5.5 |
Cincinnati (3-0) | 6 | 5 | -1 | +1 | 3.4 | W 28-24 @ #13 Baltimore | 0.0 |
Pittsburgh (2-1) | 7 | 8 | -1 | -4 | 3.3 | W 12-6 @ #19 St. Louis | 2.1 |
Buffalo (2-1) | 8 | 10 | +8 | -2 | 2.7 | W 41-14 @ #10 Miami | 2.3 |
Kansas City (1-2) | 9 | 12 | -2 | -2 | 2.3 | L 38-28 @ #2 Green Bay | 4.9 |
Philadelphia (1-2) | 10 | 17 | +5 | +5 | 2.1 | W 24-17 @ #12 NY Jets | 1.5 |
Indianapolis (1-2) | 11 | 14 | +4 | 1.8 | W 35-33 vs. #11 Indianapolis | 0.8 | |
Baltimore (0-3) | 12 | 22 | +1 | -5 | 1.3 | L 28-24 vs. #5 Cincinnati | 2.6 |
Dallas (2-1) | 13 | 11 | -4 | +1 | 1.2 | L 39-28 vs. #23 Atlanta | -0.8 |
NY Jets (2-1) | 14 | 15 | -2 | -6 | 1.0 | L 24-17 vs. #15 Philadelphia | -1.1 |
Minnesota (2-1) | 15 | 13 | +3 | +3 | 1.0 | W 31-14 vs. #14 San Diego | -2.9 |
San Diego (1-2) | 16 | 18 | -2 | -5 | 0.4 | L 31-14 @ #18 Minnesota | 1.9 |
Carolina (3-0) | 17 | 9 | +5 | 0.2 | W 27-22 vs. #25 New Orleans | -5.2 | |
Miami (1-2) | 18 | 23 | -8 | -8 | -0.4 | L 41-14 vs. #16 Buffalo | -2.5 |
Atlanta (3-0) | 19 | 6 | +4 | +5 | -0.6 | W 39-28 @ #9 Dallas | 1.7 |
St Louis (1-2) | 20 | 19 | -1 | -1.1 | L 12-6 vs. #6 Pittsburgh | 0.6 | |
NY Giants (1-2) | 21 | 16 | +10 | -1.1 | W 32-21 vs. #28 Washington | -2.4 | |
Detroit (0-3) | 22 | 25 | -2 | -1 | -1.4 | L 24-12 vs. #3 Denver | 3.8 |
Houston (1-2) | 23 | 21 | -1 | +4 | -1.6 | W 19-9 vs. #32 Tampa Bay | -2.3 |
New Orleans (0-3) | 24 | 31 | +1 | -1 | -2.8 | L 27-22 @ #17 Carolina | 0.0 |
Tennessee (1-2) | 25 | 24 | +2 | +3 | -4.3 | L 35-33 vs. #11 Indianapolis | -2.3 |
San Francisco (1-2) | 26 | 28 | -2 | -8 | -4.7 | L 47-7 @ #8 Arizona | 3.5 |
Cleveland (1-2) | 27 | 26 | -1 | -5 | -4.7 | L 27-20 vs. #30 Oakland | -3.9 |
Oakland (2-1) | 28 | 20 | +2 | +8 | -4.9 | W 27-20 @ #26 Cleveland | -1.0 |
Washington (1-2) | 29 | 27 | -1 | -4 | -5.1 | L 32-21 @ #21 NY Giants | -1.9 |
Chicago (0-3) | 30 | 32 | -1 | -6.2 | L 26-0 @ #4 Seattle | 4.6 | |
Tampa Bay (1-2) | 31 | 30 | +1 | -1 | -6.9 | L 19-9 @ #22 Houston | -2.1 |
Jacksonville (1-2) | 32 | 29 | -1 | +2 | -8.1 | L 51-17 @ #1 New England | 0.4 |
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