Bears vs. Seahawks: How Often Do 14 Point Underdogs Win?

September 23, 2015 - by David Hess

At the time of this writing, the Chicago Bears stand as 14.5 point underdogs at Seattle in Week 3, according to our NFL odds.

That’s a big spread for the NFL, and the biggest point spread we’ve seen so far this year. The national media is giving Chicago almost no shot against the two-time defending NFC Champs, especially with Jimmy Clausen standing in at quarterback for the injured Jay Cutler.

As it turns out, New England is also almost a 14 point favorite against Jacksonville this week (-13.5 on Wednesday night). This all sparks the question…

How often have 14+ point underdogs won in the NFL?

Just for kicks (actually, at the request of ESPNChicago writer Jon Greenberg), we looked up the games where 14+ point underdogs won. This isn’t meant to be a predictive analysis by any means, more just a trip down memory lane.

Our database goes back to 1985. Since that time, upsets by 14 point or greater underdogs have occurred a total 21 times in 235 total games, according to our closing line data.

That equates to a win rate of 8.9% (21/235) since 1985. In addition, the upset rate for 14+ point underdogs appears to have generally declined over time:

Years	14+ Point Underdogs	Upsets	Underdog Win%
1985-89	29	4	13.8%
1990-94	52	6	11.5%
1995-99	43	5	11.6%
2000-04	22	2	9.1%
2005-09	56	3	5.4%
2010-present	33	1	3.0%
Total	235	21	8.9%

The most notable of the upsets, which many readers will likely recall, was New England’s improbable 20-17 upset of the St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI on February 3, 2002.

After that Super Bowl, though, things got interesting. There was more than a six-year drought before another 14+ point underdog won, then it happened three times in the 2009 season alone.

As the table below shows, we’re back in a drought. We haven’t seen an upset by a two-touchdown dog in the NFL since the 2010 season.

At least Bears fans have reason to dream.

Wins By 14+ Point Underdogs Since 1985

Date	Dog Spread	Location	Dog	Favorite	Score
1985 Sep 22	14	away	Philadelphia	Washington	19-6
1985 Sep 29	16	away	New Orleans	San Francisco	20-17
1988 Sep 18	14	away	Atlanta	San Francisco	34-17
1989 Nov 5	14	away	Dallas	Washington	13-3
1992 Nov 29	17	HOME	Indianapolis	Buffalo	16-13
1992 Dec 6	17	away	NY Jets	Buffalo	24-17
1992 Dec 26	14.5	away	Oakland	Washington	21-20
1993 Dec 12	14	away	St. Louis	New Orleans	23-20
1994 Sep 19	14	away	Detroit	Dallas	20-17
1994 Nov 27	14	away	Tampa Bay	Minnesota	20-17
1995 Oct 29	14	away	New Orleans	San Francisco	11-7
1995 Nov 5	15	away	Carolina	San Francisco	13-7
1995 Dec 3	17.5	away	Washington	Dallas	24-17
1997 Jan 4	14	away	Jacksonville	Denver	30-27
1999 Nov 14	14.5	away	Cleveland	Pittsburgh	16-15
2001 Oct 7	14	away	Arizona	Philadelphia	21-20
2002 Feb 3	14	Super Bowl	New England	St. Louis	20-17
2009 Oct 18	14	HOME	Oakland	Philadelphia	13-9
2009 Dec 6	14.5	away	Oakland	Pittsburgh	27-24
2009 Dec 27	14	away	Tampa Bay	New Orleans	20-17
2010 Dec 28	14	away	Minnesota	Philadelphia	24-14