2011-12 College Basketball Preseason Ratings

posted in NCAA Basketball

First off, yes, we know it’s no longer the preseason. With all due apologies to (deep breath) Texas A&M, St. John’s, Lehigh, Arizona, Akron, Mississippi State, Eastern Kentucky, Valparaiso, Duquesne, Liberty, and William & Mary … the season starts in earnest tomorrow night.

We didn’t get updated roster info until Friday night, and then had a this-is-a-bad-time-but-we-can’t-say-no business trip early this week, leaving precious little time to pump out an updated version of our preseason ratings. But we figured, hey, better semi-late than never.

The method for these projections is discussed at the end of the post. First, let’s get to what you everyone really cares about — our top teams.

TeamRankings Top 25

Question number one is, of course, who is our #1? The polls like North Carolina, but it’s hard to argue with the NBA-ready talent that John Calipari has stockpiled at Kentucky. Honestly, the difference between the two is well within the margin of error, but we’re giving the edge to Kentucky by a hair.

Here is the rest of our top 25, with discussion below. Numbers in bold indicate which ratings (TeamRankings, AP, Coaches Poll, Pomeroy) had the team ranked highest.

RankTeamRatingProj W-LAPCoachesPomeroyAVG
1Kentucky30.728-22211.5
2North Carolina30.227-31131.8
3Duke28.326-36644.8
4Ohio State25.026-53323.0
5Syracuse23.723-55555.0
6Vanderbilt23.224-67797.3
7Pittsburgh22.525-6101178.8
8Louisville22.324-79888.3
9Florida21.824-7810129.8
10Missouri20.523-725251418.5
11Connecticut20.321-74466.3
12UNLV20.225-538361826.0
13Texas A&M20.122-720192519.3
14Belmont20.026-436--2832.0
15Kansas19.720-913131113.0
16St. Marys19.624-539412329.8
17Gonzaga19.624-623231720.0
18Wisconsin19.321-915141014.3
19Purdue19.121-835351924.5
20Memphis19.023-71192015.0
21Baylor18.922-912121515.0
22Temple18.823-528291323.0
23BYU18.323-6--473739.3
24Washington18.322-829303930.5
25Michigan18.020-918182220.8

We know what you’re thinking…

You probably see a few teams that you feel are way too high or way too low. Maybe one of the following thoughts crossed your mind…

Why is Duke ranked ahead of Ohio State? When we first spied the final output of our projection model, it surprised us, as well. But the fact is, while Duke loses some great talent, that talent was much more important on offense than on defense. Combine that with a good recruiting class and Mike Krzyzewski’s established ability to get the most out of his team, and the Blue Devils should have a great season.

Ohio State, meanwhile, doesn’t return much more of their talent than Duke does. Since they bring back Jared Sullinger, the perception is that they aren’t losing much, but that’s wrong. Jon Diebler was one of the best three point shooters in recent history, and David Lighty was an elite defender. They were a tad better than Duke last year, and return a bit more talent, but the Buckeyes don’t have as good of a freshman class, nor do they have — and this is in no way an insult to Thad Matta — as good of a coach. (Recruiter, maybe. But not coach.)

These projections don’t like UConn nearly as much as the voters do. That’s probably because voters make a logical leap from “won the NCAA tournament last year” to “were the best team last year.” Our ratings don’t see it that way — they see UConn as a borderline top ten team who gelled, won some close games, benefited from some upsets, and gutted out a tournament win. Voters think freshman Andre Drummond can make up for the loss of Kemba Walker. So do we, we just think that means they stay around #10, instead of staying around #1.

Belmont in the top 25? Yeah, right. Hey, not so fast. The Bruins were rated #21 last year in the new predictive power rankings that were used in these projections, and the only key player they lost was Jordan Campbell. But given how much the Belmont attack relied on hustle, effort, and hockey-style mass substitutions, losing one player seems like it shouldn’t have a huge impact. The Bruins may not really be the #14 team in the land, be we’re comfortable saying that #14 is a more accurate assessment than the zero votes they got in the Coaches’ Poll.

Can Missouri really be that good without Lawrence Bowers, and with a new coach? One key thing our model may be missing is the impact of a coaching change. The Tigers — even with the loss of Lawrence Bowers — have shown they have the talent required to gel into a top ten team. The question is whether Frank Haith has the coaching chops to take advantage of that talent. This is one of our projections that, subjectively, we’re not a fan of. Missouri will be good, but maybe not this good.

That’s a lot of mid-majors. Yep, and we like it that way. The voters agree with us on Gonzaga and Memphis, but UNLV, Belmont, St. Mary’s, Temple, and BYU are all underrated heading into this year. UNLV was overshadowed by BYU and San Diego State last season, Belmont was given no respect due to their poor quality of the Atlantic Sun, St. Mary’s suffers from being-in-the-WCC-but-not-being-Gonzaga bias, Temple seems to simply be perennially underrated, and BYU is being left for dead despite having a very good frontcourt simply because The Jimmer left.

Where are UCLA and Arizona? Ah, there is another blind spot of ours. UCLA has a couple incoming transfers that could play large roles this year, and our projection system doesn’t give UCLA enough credit for that talent. However, before we start apologizing for their omission, we’d like to remind everyone that the Bruins were, well, not all that fantastic last year. As for Arizona, they were absolutely carried by Derrick Williams last season, and even then they were very inconsistent. So we’re not too worried about the absence of the Wildcats.

Projected Conference Standings

So, outside the top 25, what do we forecast? Here are our projected standings for every single conference.

These are average outcomes over thousands of season simulation, so keep in mind that the actual standings will be more spread out. Take the Big East, for example. We project Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Louisville to all go either 14-4 or 13-5. In real life, one of those teams will probably be a bit better (or luckier) than we project, and will end up at 15-3 or even 16-2. We just don’t yet know which one that will be.

These are in alphabetical order, with one exception: the Great West is at the bottom. Why? Because I forgot to include them the first time, and it’s easier to stick them at the bottom than re-do the whole table. Sorry, Utah Valley State. No offense intended.

TeamRankings Official 2011 NCAA Basketball Season Projections
America EastConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Vermont12.04.019.29.87.71422.3
Boston U11.44.617.112.96.61643.7
Stony Brook10.65.416.410.65.21951.3
Albany9.36.714.712.33.02291.7
Maine8.77.313.413.61.92501.3
N Hampshire6.19.910.516.5-2.63160.8
Binghamton5.210.88.119.9-4.13292.9
Hartford5.110.97.720.3-4.33302.5
Maryland BC3.612.44.823.2-7.23393.6
Atlantic 10ConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Temple13.32.722.75.318.8228.4
Xavier11.24.818.39.715.04511.1
Duquesne9.66.418.811.213.0617.7
Saint Louis9.46.618.49.612.5697.1
Dayton8.97.117.910.111.7838.0
Geo Wshgtn8.77.315.514.59.31169.5
Richmond8.27.816.313.79.61088.3
St Bonavent7.88.214.713.39.01247.9
St Josephs7.48.614.514.58.81309.1
U Mass6.99.114.113.96.81618.0
Rhode Island6.69.413.017.06.41668.6
Charlotte6.010.013.017.06.41688.2
La Salle4.611.411.319.73.52198.4
Fordham3.412.68.420.60.72778.1
ACCConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
N Carolina14.31.727.32.730.2212.5
Duke13.82.225.63.428.3313.4
Clemson9.76.319.58.516.83311.0
Miami (FL)8.97.118.910.116.73412.3
Florida St8.87.218.69.416.93112.0
NC State7.48.617.013.013.06012.3
Maryland6.89.216.211.813.85312.2
VA Tech6.89.215.112.912.96212.3
GA Tech6.49.614.713.310.69510.3
Virginia6.19.915.112.912.07511.3
Boston Col4.012.010.717.36.117110.9
Wake Forest3.212.89.718.35.119611.5
Atlantic SunConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Belmont17.10.926.33.720.0143.5
E Tenn St11.86.217.612.47.21553.2
Jacksonville11.07.014.714.35.81795.2
Lipscomb10.17.915.014.04.42093.1
N Florida9.09.013.817.22.72324.7
Mercer8.69.413.617.42.12443.6
Fla Gulf Cst6.012.010.219.8-2.03093.2
SC Upstate5.712.310.820.2-2.63182.0
Kennesaw St5.512.58.421.6-3.03214.5
Stetson5.212.87.820.2-3.43254.1
Big 12ConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Missouri12.35.723.07.020.51010.6
Texas A&M12.06.022.16.920.1139.1
Kansas11.86.220.48.619.71513.3
Baylor11.36.721.99.118.92110.3
Kansas St10.37.718.89.217.32711.7
Oklahoma St9.28.816.012.015.74011.9
Texas8.49.617.212.814.65013.1
Oklahoma6.711.314.213.811.97812.1
Iowa State5.013.013.417.69.211912.0
Texas Tech3.114.99.318.75.518511.6
Big EastConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Syracuse13.94.123.24.823.7512.3
Pittsburgh13.14.925.25.822.5711.5
Louisville12.95.123.87.222.3813.1
Connecticut11.96.121.16.920.31112.3
Marquette10.67.419.39.717.92612.9
Notre Dame10.27.819.610.417.22811.8
Cincinnati10.17.921.29.816.83210.2
Georgetown9.98.116.810.216.03812.1
W Virginia9.18.918.412.615.54112.9
Villanova8.89.216.611.415.04412.2
Seton Hall7.310.715.212.811.88010.9
S Florida6.611.414.615.411.28810.9
St Johns5.712.313.216.89.411313.3
Providence5.612.415.115.910.010410.2
Rutgers4.613.412.517.57.714311.2
DePaul3.614.410.117.95.718110.9
Big SkyConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Montana12.43.621.16.911.6852.0
Weber State11.24.817.88.29.31152.0
N Colorado9.16.913.912.15.71822.8
N Arizona8.87.215.013.05.31932.6
E Washingtn8.37.713.715.34.52083.4
Portland St6.89.213.615.42.02481.1
Montana St6.19.911.215.80.92711.9
Idaho State5.210.89.019.0-0.72904.1
Sac State4.012.09.018.0-2.93201.8
Big SouthConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
NC-Asheville13.05.018.38.710.7942.2
Coastal Car12.45.619.98.19.8106-0.3
Winthrop11.36.715.411.67.61443.2
VA Military11.36.717.19.98.11351.4
Charl South8.99.114.213.83.92141.3
Campbell8.010.013.716.33.12273.3
Liberty8.010.015.114.93.42221.2
Presbyterian7.310.711.816.22.12454.7
High Point6.811.211.516.51.22653.1
Gard-Webb6.511.511.518.51.12673.1
Radford5.512.59.519.5-0.92944.4
Big TenConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Ohio State14.43.626.05.025.0412.6
Purdue11.56.520.88.219.11912.1
Wisconsin11.56.521.48.619.31812.0
Michigan10.47.619.89.218.02510.6
Indiana9.78.320.110.917.13011.6
Northwestrn8.99.117.110.915.73912.1
Minnesota8.39.717.811.214.64812.2
Nebraska8.19.917.012.014.35111.5
Michigan St7.710.317.014.014.94612.7
Iowa7.410.617.613.413.45711.1
Illinois6.411.614.515.512.66513.3
Penn State3.714.310.719.37.314812.9
Big WestConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Lg Beach St12.23.817.29.811.8815.4
UCSB11.34.716.69.410.01014.1
Cal Poly10.06.016.711.37.81413.6
CS Fullerton7.38.714.613.43.42201.3
UC Riverside6.59.510.816.22.12463.3
UC Irvine6.39.710.115.91.72544.4
Pacific6.29.811.316.71.62573.2
Cal St Nrdge6.19.99.516.51.52614.0
UC Davis6.010.011.217.81.32643.7
CAAConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Geo Mason12.65.418.78.312.2736.3
Drexel12.35.718.98.110.8934.9
VCU12.15.917.710.311.0926.9
Old Dominion12.06.018.610.411.1897.2
James Mad10.77.317.211.89.21216.1
Northeastrn8.59.512.115.95.31926.3
Hofstra8.010.014.615.45.51866.3
Georgia St7.410.613.415.64.12125.5
NC-Wilmgton6.811.210.517.53.32246.8
Delaware6.711.310.817.22.82306.0
Wm & Mary6.111.910.819.22.52385.5
Towson4.813.28.220.80.72758.0
CUSAConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Memphis12.93.122.56.519.02010.4
Tulsa10.55.519.18.912.7647.7
Central FL9.46.618.48.612.5674.9
UAB9.16.917.311.712.0768.9
Marshall9.07.018.512.511.9798.8
Rice7.68.417.513.58.01363.6
S Mississippi7.38.716.112.99.11235.5
TX El Paso7.28.813.213.87.41478.3
Tulane6.49.616.713.36.21703.3
S Methodist5.910.113.614.45.21944.6
Houston5.510.513.815.24.72045.5
E Carolina5.110.913.915.15.41873.3
Horizon LeagueConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Butler12.85.219.710.313.3597.4
Detroit12.55.520.59.512.8635.5
Cleveland St11.56.518.511.511.2876.5
Valparaiso10.67.417.612.410.01035.2
WI-Milwkee8.99.115.015.07.51465.4
WI-Grn Bay8.29.812.715.36.41655.9
Wright State7.910.114.016.06.01746.9
Loyola-Chi7.710.313.614.45.71834.9
Youngs St6.111.911.316.73.22254.3
IL-Chicago3.714.38.719.3-0.82933.9
IndependentsConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Seattle----10.516.5-0.72891.7
Longwood----12.316.7-2.1311-1.2
CS Bakersfld----9.820.2-3.13220.9
IvyConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Harvard11.42.622.06.014.6494.0
Princeton8.85.217.912.18.91273.7
Yale7.76.316.012.06.91582.7
Cornell7.07.013.714.35.61844.7
U Penn6.67.413.817.24.82027.4
Columbia6.47.616.014.04.32102.2
Brown5.48.613.214.82.52373.2
Dartmouth2.611.46.421.6-3.43245.4
MAACConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Iona14.33.719.47.612.5715.0
Fairfield12.45.617.810.29.21205.2
Rider11.66.418.012.08.01374.9
Loyola-MD11.26.817.311.77.31494.1
Siena9.09.013.514.54.12134.6
Manhattan6.811.210.017.00.72764.7
St Peters6.811.29.719.30.62785.6
Canisius6.611.49.918.10.42814.7
Niagara5.912.19.720.3-0.72914.8
Marist5.412.68.819.2-1.63045.1
MACConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Kent State11.64.420.98.113.3585.1
Akron11.64.421.88.214.0525.4
W Michigan10.75.315.712.39.61106.7
Ball State10.45.618.29.89.11223.0
Buffalo10.06.015.810.210.3987.1
Ohio8.87.217.213.88.41345.9
Bowling Grn7.18.912.616.45.91756.6
Miami (OH)6.99.111.716.35.41887.7
E Michigan5.710.310.019.00.82725.1
Central Mich5.710.38.918.11.02685.3
N Illinois4.511.59.019.0-1.63053.6
Toledo3.013.09.120.9-4.43312.0
MEACConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Morgan St11.05.014.210.84.72032.4
Hampton10.06.014.112.92.42391.4
Savannah St9.76.315.015.01.72551.5
Coppin State9.76.315.313.72.0249-1.5
Delaware St9.46.613.713.31.3262-0.1
NC A&T8.77.314.216.80.0283-0.5
Beth-Cook8.08.013.116.9-1.2301-0.5
Norfolk St7.88.213.115.9-0.6288-0.2
NC Central7.58.510.416.6-1.23000.7
Florida A&M7.38.711.817.2-2.1310-0.3
S Car State6.19.910.519.5-3.53260.6
Howard4.711.36.922.1-6.53362.6
Maryland ES4.211.86.722.3-7.03381.6
MVCConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Wichita St13.24.820.26.815.2436.7
N Iowa11.16.918.911.112.0777.7
Creighton10.97.117.811.211.6848.0
Indiana St10.67.417.19.911.2866.4
Missouri St10.08.016.113.910.31007.7
Drake8.39.714.112.97.81406.6
Evansville7.210.812.715.36.31697.7
Bradley6.611.412.116.95.41898.4
Illinois St6.611.413.514.55.31916.3
S Illinois5.512.510.416.63.62176.2
Mountain WestConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
UNLV11.62.425.24.820.2126.9
New Mexico9.94.121.26.816.0376.5
San Diego St8.65.420.89.213.5555.6
Colorado St6.67.413.111.99.61098.4
Boise State5.68.414.814.27.51457.1
Air Force5.48.614.511.57.21544.4
TX Christian5.28.813.514.56.91606.9
Wyoming3.011.012.317.72.22424.7
NortheastConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
LIU-Brooklyn13.44.620.18.98.81282.2
Rob Morris13.44.619.511.58.51324.0
Central Conn11.36.716.711.35.81772.6
Wagner10.57.514.413.64.12113.8
Quinnipiac9.78.314.914.13.52182.8
Mt St Marys9.09.012.916.11.92523.4
Sacred Hrt8.99.113.916.12.42403.4
St Fran (NY)8.79.313.315.71.52592.1
Monmouth7.110.98.919.1-0.82925.6
St Fran (PA)7.110.910.019.0-1.22993.8
Bryant5.512.57.722.3-3.13234.4
F Dickinson3.514.55.123.9-6.83373.9
Ohio ValleyConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Austin Peay12.73.319.910.112.5705.5
TN Tech10.85.218.010.08.41332.1
Murray St10.55.517.09.08.51311.0
Morehead St10.25.818.111.97.31501.3
TN State9.66.416.311.77.01572.7
E Illinois7.48.613.914.11.82530.4
SE Missouri6.89.212.715.30.82731.2
E Kentucky6.89.213.216.81.72561.1
Jksnville St5.510.511.316.7-1.73060.6
TN Martin5.310.710.319.7-1.12962.8
SIU Edward2.413.65.419.6-7.73401.3
Pac-12ConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Washington13.05.022.27.818.32410.5
California12.15.921.78.316.53510.1
Arizona12.15.921.09.017.22911.7
Wash State10.67.418.49.614.6478.5
UCLA10.57.520.18.915.2429.0
Stanford10.27.817.99.113.5568.8
Oregon7.910.115.914.110.69610.3
Colorado7.310.713.413.69.41148.7
Arizona St6.711.313.114.99.012611.0
USC6.211.812.018.09.012512.5
Utah5.712.311.416.67.11569.2
Oregon St5.712.313.915.17.31517.6
PatriotConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Bucknell10.53.519.810.29.31183.6
Lehigh8.94.117.510.57.21532.0
Holy Cross7.66.413.515.53.72164.5
American6.77.313.215.82.22433.3
Lafayette6.46.612.815.22.32413.4
Army5.78.313.114.90.32820.8
Navy4.99.110.517.5-1.23021.8
Colgate4.49.69.519.5-2.23133.3
SECConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
EastWLWLRatingRankSOS
Kentucky14.81.228.02.030.7111.3
Vanderbilt12.04.024.25.823.2611.9
Florida11.44.623.97.121.8912.0
Alabama10.75.319.48.616.43611.0
Mississippi8.17.916.311.711.7829.0
Georgia6.79.315.413.612.17412.3
Arkansas6.49.617.113.98.81298.6
Tennessee5.810.212.716.310.39713.6
S Carolina5.710.314.314.710.39912.1
LSU5.310.711.416.66.716210.2
Miss State4.811.212.317.75.818010.4
Auburn4.411.611.716.35.01989.1
SouthernConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
NorthWLWLRatingRankSOS
W Carolina10.77.315.914.16.01733.3
App State10.17.914.713.35.01973.3
Chattanooga9.18.915.914.13.72151.6
Elon8.89.213.715.33.22263.0
NC-Grnsboro7.410.610.118.91.32635.5
Samford5.812.210.218.8-1.02953.1
SouthWLWLRatingRankSOS
Davidson14.53.520.37.712.6664.4
Col Charlestn13.74.318.68.411.0905.6
Wofford9.38.714.414.64.52072.7
Furman8.010.013.215.82.62362.5
GA Southern5.412.68.819.2-1.93072.2
Citadel5.112.98.419.6-2.43143.1
SouthlandConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
EastWLWLRatingRankSOS
Nicholls St11.64.419.38.79.41121.1
Lamar11.05.018.411.67.81393.2
SE Louisiana7.88.214.713.32.8231-0.4
McNeese St7.38.712.715.31.92510.5
NW State6.89.213.116.91.02690.9
Central Ark3.212.87.620.4-5.23321.1
WestWLWLRatingRankSOS
TX-Arlington10.65.418.110.97.21522.6
Ste F Austin9.86.218.410.65.9176-1.4
TX-San Ant9.07.014.411.64.72052.1
Sam Hous St8.17.915.514.53.42210.3
Texas State6.010.012.715.3-0.1284-0.6
TX A&M-CC4.811.27.420.6-2.23125.7
SWACConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Alabama St12.15.915.914.1-0.6287-2.7
TX Southern11.66.412.817.2-1.43030.7
Jackson St11.26.813.017.0-2.03080.7
Miss Val St10.87.211.517.5-2.63152.0
Alab A&M9.98.112.314.7-4.0328-3.2
Ark Pine Bl8.79.39.117.9-5.7333-0.1
Prairie View8.59.512.817.2-5.9334-3.7
Grambling St6.411.66.721.3-9.0341-0.4
Alcorn State5.812.29.020.0-9.9343-3.3
Southern5.013.08.721.3-11.2344-3.7
SummitConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Oral Roberts14.13.919.37.713.7546.4
Oakland12.65.419.410.611.0915.0
IUPUI11.96.119.610.49.81073.4
S Dakota St11.66.418.711.39.31173.3
N Dakota St9.58.515.212.86.01723.0
IPFW8.79.314.713.34.82001.7
South Dakota6.711.311.515.51.62581.5
S Utah6.111.911.216.80.72742.7
UMKC5.013.09.319.7-1.12983.8
W Illinois3.614.49.019.0-3.73270.8
Sun BeltConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
EastWLWLRatingRankSOS
Fla Atlantic11.44.616.912.17.91384.1
Middle Tenn10.25.815.213.85.81784.7
W Kentucky8.27.812.314.72.62344.9
S Alabama6.79.311.915.10.52801.7
Florida Intl6.39.79.215.8-0.22853.1
Troy5.910.19.317.7-1.12973.1
WestWLWLRatingRankSOS
Denver10.65.417.311.76.41674.1
Arkansas St8.57.514.716.33.12283.3
North Texas8.37.715.413.62.7233-0.4
LA Lafayette7.98.113.017.02.12473.4
AR Lit Rock7.18.911.818.20.92704.1
LA Monroe5.011.07.921.1-2.63174.5
WCCConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
St Marys12.83.223.54.519.6165.0
Gonzaga12.73.323.55.519.61710.0
BYU12.23.822.76.318.3237.6
San Fransco7.98.115.610.410.01026.4
Santa Clara7.68.413.711.39.51117.2
Portland6.010.010.718.36.61639.9
Loyola Mymt5.410.612.716.35.41906.7
Pepperdine4.012.09.418.62.62357.3
San Diego3.312.79.919.11.12666.0
WACConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Nevada9.94.120.17.912.5684.2
Utah State9.84.221.78.312.3724.6
N Mex State8.55.519.010.09.91053.2
Hawaii6.97.115.911.16.91593.5
San Jose St5.88.213.815.24.91995.0
Idaho5.78.313.615.44.82013.9
Fresno St5.68.411.315.74.62065.9
LA Tech4.010.012.217.81.52603.0
Great WestConferenceOverallProjected Ratings
TeamWLWLRatingRankSOS
Utah Val St7.32.719.210.83.4223-3.6
North Dakota6.33.715.613.40.6279-3.0
NJIT5.84.215.813.2-0.5286-3.9
TX-Pan Am4.95.112.517.5-2.7319-1.1
Houston Bap3.56.58.720.3-6.4335-0.1
Chicago St2.27.85.924.1-9.93421.7

How We Ranked The Teams

Most of you can probably stop reading now, as we’re done with the bragging rights portion of the article. But for those who are interested in why teams are ranked the way they are, we thought we’d take a second to explain our method.

We looked back at each of the past five years, and compiled several factors for each team, heading into each season:

We then used linear regression to find out how those factors related to a team’s final power rating, and used the results of the regression to project ratings for this season. It’s a pretty simple concept; the hard part is coming up with the data to throw into the regression. Recruiting and roster info, especially, is a pain.

Here’s a summary of what we found:

  • Last year’s predictive rating is very important. (duh)
  • Predictive ratings from 2 through 5 years ago are significant, but they don’t make a huge difference.
  • Returning offense is more important than returning defense, by a decent margin. (This is probably because our returning production values are based on box score stats, which do a better job of capturing offensive value than they do capturing defensive value.)
  • Having a couple elite recruits (top 15) is far more important than stockpiling top-100 or top-50 players.

Hopefully that should help you understand why teams are rated where they are.  Feel free to ask us about specific teams in the comments section.