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November 10, 2011 - by David Hess
First off, yes, we know it’s no longer the preseason. With all due apologies to (deep breath) Texas A&M, St. John’s, Lehigh, Arizona, Akron, Mississippi State, Eastern Kentucky, Valparaiso, Duquesne, Liberty, and William & Mary … the season starts in earnest tomorrow night.
We didn’t get updated roster info until Friday night, and then had a this-is-a-bad-time-but-we-can’t-say-no business trip early this week, leaving precious little time to pump out an updated version of our preseason ratings. But we figured, hey, better semi-late than never.
The method for these projections is discussed at the end of the post. First, let’s get to what you everyone really cares about — our top teams.
Question number one is, of course, who is our #1? The polls like North Carolina, but it’s hard to argue with the NBA-ready talent that John Calipari has stockpiled at Kentucky. Honestly, the difference between the two is well within the margin of error, but we’re giving the edge to Kentucky by a hair.
Here is the rest of our top 25, with discussion below. Numbers in bold indicate which ratings (TeamRankings, AP, Coaches Poll, Pomeroy) had the team ranked highest.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Proj W-L | AP | Coaches | Pomeroy | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky | 30.7 | 28-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 2 | North Carolina | 30.2 | 27-3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.8 |
| 3 | Duke | 28.3 | 26-3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4.8 |
| 4 | Ohio State | 25.0 | 26-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3.0 |
| 5 | Syracuse | 23.7 | 23-5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | 23.2 | 24-6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7.3 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 22.5 | 25-6 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 8.8 |
| 8 | Louisville | 22.3 | 24-7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8.3 |
| 9 | Florida | 21.8 | 24-7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 9.8 |
| 10 | Missouri | 20.5 | 23-7 | 25 | 25 | 14 | 18.5 |
| 11 | Connecticut | 20.3 | 21-7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6.3 |
| 12 | UNLV | 20.2 | 25-5 | 38 | 36 | 18 | 26.0 |
| 13 | Texas A&M | 20.1 | 22-7 | 20 | 19 | 25 | 19.3 |
| 14 | Belmont | 20.0 | 26-4 | 36 | -- | 28 | 32.0 |
| 15 | Kansas | 19.7 | 20-9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13.0 |
| 16 | St. Marys | 19.6 | 24-5 | 39 | 41 | 23 | 29.8 |
| 17 | Gonzaga | 19.6 | 24-6 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 20.0 |
| 18 | Wisconsin | 19.3 | 21-9 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 14.3 |
| 19 | Purdue | 19.1 | 21-8 | 35 | 35 | 19 | 24.5 |
| 20 | Memphis | 19.0 | 23-7 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 15.0 |
| 21 | Baylor | 18.9 | 22-9 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15.0 |
| 22 | Temple | 18.8 | 23-5 | 28 | 29 | 13 | 23.0 |
| 23 | BYU | 18.3 | 23-6 | -- | 47 | 37 | 39.3 |
| 24 | Washington | 18.3 | 22-8 | 29 | 30 | 39 | 30.5 |
| 25 | Michigan | 18.0 | 20-9 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 20.8 |
You probably see a few teams that you feel are way too high or way too low. Maybe one of the following thoughts crossed your mind…
Why is Duke ranked ahead of Ohio State? When we first spied the final output of our projection model, it surprised us, as well. But the fact is, while Duke loses some great talent, that talent was much more important on offense than on defense. Combine that with a good recruiting class and Mike Krzyzewski’s established ability to get the most out of his team, and the Blue Devils should have a great season.
Ohio State, meanwhile, doesn’t return much more of their talent than Duke does. Since they bring back Jared Sullinger, the perception is that they aren’t losing much, but that’s wrong. Jon Diebler was one of the best three point shooters in recent history, and David Lighty was an elite defender. They were a tad better than Duke last year, and return a bit more talent, but the Buckeyes don’t have as good of a freshman class, nor do they have — and this is in no way an insult to Thad Matta — as good of a coach. (Recruiter, maybe. But not coach.)
These projections don’t like UConn nearly as much as the voters do. That’s probably because voters make a logical leap from “won the NCAA tournament last year” to “were the best team last year.” Our ratings don’t see it that way — they see UConn as a borderline top ten team who gelled, won some close games, benefited from some upsets, and gutted out a tournament win. Voters think freshman Andre Drummond can make up for the loss of Kemba Walker. So do we, we just think that means they stay around #10, instead of staying around #1.
Belmont in the top 25? Yeah, right. Hey, not so fast. The Bruins were rated #21 last year in the new predictive power rankings that were used in these projections, and the only key player they lost was Jordan Campbell. But given how much the Belmont attack relied on hustle, effort, and hockey-style mass substitutions, losing one player seems like it shouldn’t have a huge impact. The Bruins may not really be the #14 team in the land, be we’re comfortable saying that #14 is a more accurate assessment than the zero votes they got in the Coaches’ Poll.
Can Missouri really be that good without Lawrence Bowers, and with a new coach? One key thing our model may be missing is the impact of a coaching change. The Tigers — even with the loss of Lawrence Bowers — have shown they have the talent required to gel into a top ten team. The question is whether Frank Haith has the coaching chops to take advantage of that talent. This is one of our projections that, subjectively, we’re not a fan of. Missouri will be good, but maybe not this good.
That’s a lot of mid-majors. Yep, and we like it that way. The voters agree with us on Gonzaga and Memphis, but UNLV, Belmont, St. Mary’s, Temple, and BYU are all underrated heading into this year. UNLV was overshadowed by BYU and San Diego State last season, Belmont was given no respect due to their poor quality of the Atlantic Sun, St. Mary’s suffers from being-in-the-WCC-but-not-being-Gonzaga bias, Temple seems to simply be perennially underrated, and BYU is being left for dead despite having a very good frontcourt simply because The Jimmer left.
Where are UCLA and Arizona? Ah, there is another blind spot of ours. UCLA has a couple incoming transfers that could play large roles this year, and our projection system doesn’t give UCLA enough credit for that talent. However, before we start apologizing for their omission, we’d like to remind everyone that the Bruins were, well, not all that fantastic last year. As for Arizona, they were absolutely carried by Derrick Williams last season, and even then they were very inconsistent. So we’re not too worried about the absence of the Wildcats.
So, outside the top 25, what do we forecast? Here are our projected standings for every single conference.
These are average outcomes over thousands of season simulation, so keep in mind that the actual standings will be more spread out. Take the Big East, for example. We project Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Louisville to all go either 14-4 or 13-5. In real life, one of those teams will probably be a bit better (or luckier) than we project, and will end up at 15-3 or even 16-2. We just don’t yet know which one that will be.
These are in alphabetical order, with one exception: the Great West is at the bottom. Why? Because I forgot to include them the first time, and it’s easier to stick them at the bottom than re-do the whole table. Sorry, Utah Valley State. No offense intended.
TeamRankings Official 2011 NCAA Basketball Season Projections
America East Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Vermont 12.0 4.0 19.2 9.8 7.7 142 2.3
Boston U 11.4 4.6 17.1 12.9 6.6 164 3.7
Stony Brook 10.6 5.4 16.4 10.6 5.2 195 1.3
Albany 9.3 6.7 14.7 12.3 3.0 229 1.7
Maine 8.7 7.3 13.4 13.6 1.9 250 1.3
N Hampshire 6.1 9.9 10.5 16.5 -2.6 316 0.8
Binghamton 5.2 10.8 8.1 19.9 -4.1 329 2.9
Hartford 5.1 10.9 7.7 20.3 -4.3 330 2.5
Maryland BC 3.6 12.4 4.8 23.2 -7.2 339 3.6
Atlantic 10 Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Temple 13.3 2.7 22.7 5.3 18.8 22 8.4
Xavier 11.2 4.8 18.3 9.7 15.0 45 11.1
Duquesne 9.6 6.4 18.8 11.2 13.0 61 7.7
Saint Louis 9.4 6.6 18.4 9.6 12.5 69 7.1
Dayton 8.9 7.1 17.9 10.1 11.7 83 8.0
Geo Wshgtn 8.7 7.3 15.5 14.5 9.3 116 9.5
Richmond 8.2 7.8 16.3 13.7 9.6 108 8.3
St Bonavent 7.8 8.2 14.7 13.3 9.0 124 7.9
St Josephs 7.4 8.6 14.5 14.5 8.8 130 9.1
U Mass 6.9 9.1 14.1 13.9 6.8 161 8.0
Rhode Island 6.6 9.4 13.0 17.0 6.4 166 8.6
Charlotte 6.0 10.0 13.0 17.0 6.4 168 8.2
La Salle 4.6 11.4 11.3 19.7 3.5 219 8.4
Fordham 3.4 12.6 8.4 20.6 0.7 277 8.1
ACC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
N Carolina 14.3 1.7 27.3 2.7 30.2 2 12.5
Duke 13.8 2.2 25.6 3.4 28.3 3 13.4
Clemson 9.7 6.3 19.5 8.5 16.8 33 11.0
Miami (FL) 8.9 7.1 18.9 10.1 16.7 34 12.3
Florida St 8.8 7.2 18.6 9.4 16.9 31 12.0
NC State 7.4 8.6 17.0 13.0 13.0 60 12.3
Maryland 6.8 9.2 16.2 11.8 13.8 53 12.2
VA Tech 6.8 9.2 15.1 12.9 12.9 62 12.3
GA Tech 6.4 9.6 14.7 13.3 10.6 95 10.3
Virginia 6.1 9.9 15.1 12.9 12.0 75 11.3
Boston Col 4.0 12.0 10.7 17.3 6.1 171 10.9
Wake Forest 3.2 12.8 9.7 18.3 5.1 196 11.5
Atlantic Sun Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Belmont 17.1 0.9 26.3 3.7 20.0 14 3.5
E Tenn St 11.8 6.2 17.6 12.4 7.2 155 3.2
Jacksonville 11.0 7.0 14.7 14.3 5.8 179 5.2
Lipscomb 10.1 7.9 15.0 14.0 4.4 209 3.1
N Florida 9.0 9.0 13.8 17.2 2.7 232 4.7
Mercer 8.6 9.4 13.6 17.4 2.1 244 3.6
Fla Gulf Cst 6.0 12.0 10.2 19.8 -2.0 309 3.2
SC Upstate 5.7 12.3 10.8 20.2 -2.6 318 2.0
Kennesaw St 5.5 12.5 8.4 21.6 -3.0 321 4.5
Stetson 5.2 12.8 7.8 20.2 -3.4 325 4.1
Big 12 Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Missouri 12.3 5.7 23.0 7.0 20.5 10 10.6
Texas A&M 12.0 6.0 22.1 6.9 20.1 13 9.1
Kansas 11.8 6.2 20.4 8.6 19.7 15 13.3
Baylor 11.3 6.7 21.9 9.1 18.9 21 10.3
Kansas St 10.3 7.7 18.8 9.2 17.3 27 11.7
Oklahoma St 9.2 8.8 16.0 12.0 15.7 40 11.9
Texas 8.4 9.6 17.2 12.8 14.6 50 13.1
Oklahoma 6.7 11.3 14.2 13.8 11.9 78 12.1
Iowa State 5.0 13.0 13.4 17.6 9.2 119 12.0
Texas Tech 3.1 14.9 9.3 18.7 5.5 185 11.6
Big East Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Syracuse 13.9 4.1 23.2 4.8 23.7 5 12.3
Pittsburgh 13.1 4.9 25.2 5.8 22.5 7 11.5
Louisville 12.9 5.1 23.8 7.2 22.3 8 13.1
Connecticut 11.9 6.1 21.1 6.9 20.3 11 12.3
Marquette 10.6 7.4 19.3 9.7 17.9 26 12.9
Notre Dame 10.2 7.8 19.6 10.4 17.2 28 11.8
Cincinnati 10.1 7.9 21.2 9.8 16.8 32 10.2
Georgetown 9.9 8.1 16.8 10.2 16.0 38 12.1
W Virginia 9.1 8.9 18.4 12.6 15.5 41 12.9
Villanova 8.8 9.2 16.6 11.4 15.0 44 12.2
Seton Hall 7.3 10.7 15.2 12.8 11.8 80 10.9
S Florida 6.6 11.4 14.6 15.4 11.2 88 10.9
St Johns 5.7 12.3 13.2 16.8 9.4 113 13.3
Providence 5.6 12.4 15.1 15.9 10.0 104 10.2
Rutgers 4.6 13.4 12.5 17.5 7.7 143 11.2
DePaul 3.6 14.4 10.1 17.9 5.7 181 10.9
Big Sky Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Montana 12.4 3.6 21.1 6.9 11.6 85 2.0
Weber State 11.2 4.8 17.8 8.2 9.3 115 2.0
N Colorado 9.1 6.9 13.9 12.1 5.7 182 2.8
N Arizona 8.8 7.2 15.0 13.0 5.3 193 2.6
E Washingtn 8.3 7.7 13.7 15.3 4.5 208 3.4
Portland St 6.8 9.2 13.6 15.4 2.0 248 1.1
Montana St 6.1 9.9 11.2 15.8 0.9 271 1.9
Idaho State 5.2 10.8 9.0 19.0 -0.7 290 4.1
Sac State 4.0 12.0 9.0 18.0 -2.9 320 1.8
Big South Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
NC-Asheville 13.0 5.0 18.3 8.7 10.7 94 2.2
Coastal Car 12.4 5.6 19.9 8.1 9.8 106 -0.3
Winthrop 11.3 6.7 15.4 11.6 7.6 144 3.2
VA Military 11.3 6.7 17.1 9.9 8.1 135 1.4
Charl South 8.9 9.1 14.2 13.8 3.9 214 1.3
Campbell 8.0 10.0 13.7 16.3 3.1 227 3.3
Liberty 8.0 10.0 15.1 14.9 3.4 222 1.2
Presbyterian 7.3 10.7 11.8 16.2 2.1 245 4.7
High Point 6.8 11.2 11.5 16.5 1.2 265 3.1
Gard-Webb 6.5 11.5 11.5 18.5 1.1 267 3.1
Radford 5.5 12.5 9.5 19.5 -0.9 294 4.4
Big Ten Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Ohio State 14.4 3.6 26.0 5.0 25.0 4 12.6
Purdue 11.5 6.5 20.8 8.2 19.1 19 12.1
Wisconsin 11.5 6.5 21.4 8.6 19.3 18 12.0
Michigan 10.4 7.6 19.8 9.2 18.0 25 10.6
Indiana 9.7 8.3 20.1 10.9 17.1 30 11.6
Northwestrn 8.9 9.1 17.1 10.9 15.7 39 12.1
Minnesota 8.3 9.7 17.8 11.2 14.6 48 12.2
Nebraska 8.1 9.9 17.0 12.0 14.3 51 11.5
Michigan St 7.7 10.3 17.0 14.0 14.9 46 12.7
Iowa 7.4 10.6 17.6 13.4 13.4 57 11.1
Illinois 6.4 11.6 14.5 15.5 12.6 65 13.3
Penn State 3.7 14.3 10.7 19.3 7.3 148 12.9
Big West Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Lg Beach St 12.2 3.8 17.2 9.8 11.8 81 5.4
UCSB 11.3 4.7 16.6 9.4 10.0 101 4.1
Cal Poly 10.0 6.0 16.7 11.3 7.8 141 3.6
CS Fullerton 7.3 8.7 14.6 13.4 3.4 220 1.3
UC Riverside 6.5 9.5 10.8 16.2 2.1 246 3.3
UC Irvine 6.3 9.7 10.1 15.9 1.7 254 4.4
Pacific 6.2 9.8 11.3 16.7 1.6 257 3.2
Cal St Nrdge 6.1 9.9 9.5 16.5 1.5 261 4.0
UC Davis 6.0 10.0 11.2 17.8 1.3 264 3.7
CAA Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Geo Mason 12.6 5.4 18.7 8.3 12.2 73 6.3
Drexel 12.3 5.7 18.9 8.1 10.8 93 4.9
VCU 12.1 5.9 17.7 10.3 11.0 92 6.9
Old Dominion 12.0 6.0 18.6 10.4 11.1 89 7.2
James Mad 10.7 7.3 17.2 11.8 9.2 121 6.1
Northeastrn 8.5 9.5 12.1 15.9 5.3 192 6.3
Hofstra 8.0 10.0 14.6 15.4 5.5 186 6.3
Georgia St 7.4 10.6 13.4 15.6 4.1 212 5.5
NC-Wilmgton 6.8 11.2 10.5 17.5 3.3 224 6.8
Delaware 6.7 11.3 10.8 17.2 2.8 230 6.0
Wm & Mary 6.1 11.9 10.8 19.2 2.5 238 5.5
Towson 4.8 13.2 8.2 20.8 0.7 275 8.0
CUSA Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Memphis 12.9 3.1 22.5 6.5 19.0 20 10.4
Tulsa 10.5 5.5 19.1 8.9 12.7 64 7.7
Central FL 9.4 6.6 18.4 8.6 12.5 67 4.9
UAB 9.1 6.9 17.3 11.7 12.0 76 8.9
Marshall 9.0 7.0 18.5 12.5 11.9 79 8.8
Rice 7.6 8.4 17.5 13.5 8.0 136 3.6
S Mississippi 7.3 8.7 16.1 12.9 9.1 123 5.5
TX El Paso 7.2 8.8 13.2 13.8 7.4 147 8.3
Tulane 6.4 9.6 16.7 13.3 6.2 170 3.3
S Methodist 5.9 10.1 13.6 14.4 5.2 194 4.6
Houston 5.5 10.5 13.8 15.2 4.7 204 5.5
E Carolina 5.1 10.9 13.9 15.1 5.4 187 3.3
Horizon League Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Butler 12.8 5.2 19.7 10.3 13.3 59 7.4
Detroit 12.5 5.5 20.5 9.5 12.8 63 5.5
Cleveland St 11.5 6.5 18.5 11.5 11.2 87 6.5
Valparaiso 10.6 7.4 17.6 12.4 10.0 103 5.2
WI-Milwkee 8.9 9.1 15.0 15.0 7.5 146 5.4
WI-Grn Bay 8.2 9.8 12.7 15.3 6.4 165 5.9
Wright State 7.9 10.1 14.0 16.0 6.0 174 6.9
Loyola-Chi 7.7 10.3 13.6 14.4 5.7 183 4.9
Youngs St 6.1 11.9 11.3 16.7 3.2 225 4.3
IL-Chicago 3.7 14.3 8.7 19.3 -0.8 293 3.9
Independents Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Seattle -- -- 10.5 16.5 -0.7 289 1.7
Longwood -- -- 12.3 16.7 -2.1 311 -1.2
CS Bakersfld -- -- 9.8 20.2 -3.1 322 0.9
Ivy Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Harvard 11.4 2.6 22.0 6.0 14.6 49 4.0
Princeton 8.8 5.2 17.9 12.1 8.9 127 3.7
Yale 7.7 6.3 16.0 12.0 6.9 158 2.7
Cornell 7.0 7.0 13.7 14.3 5.6 184 4.7
U Penn 6.6 7.4 13.8 17.2 4.8 202 7.4
Columbia 6.4 7.6 16.0 14.0 4.3 210 2.2
Brown 5.4 8.6 13.2 14.8 2.5 237 3.2
Dartmouth 2.6 11.4 6.4 21.6 -3.4 324 5.4
MAAC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Iona 14.3 3.7 19.4 7.6 12.5 71 5.0
Fairfield 12.4 5.6 17.8 10.2 9.2 120 5.2
Rider 11.6 6.4 18.0 12.0 8.0 137 4.9
Loyola-MD 11.2 6.8 17.3 11.7 7.3 149 4.1
Siena 9.0 9.0 13.5 14.5 4.1 213 4.6
Manhattan 6.8 11.2 10.0 17.0 0.7 276 4.7
St Peters 6.8 11.2 9.7 19.3 0.6 278 5.6
Canisius 6.6 11.4 9.9 18.1 0.4 281 4.7
Niagara 5.9 12.1 9.7 20.3 -0.7 291 4.8
Marist 5.4 12.6 8.8 19.2 -1.6 304 5.1
MAC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Kent State 11.6 4.4 20.9 8.1 13.3 58 5.1
Akron 11.6 4.4 21.8 8.2 14.0 52 5.4
W Michigan 10.7 5.3 15.7 12.3 9.6 110 6.7
Ball State 10.4 5.6 18.2 9.8 9.1 122 3.0
Buffalo 10.0 6.0 15.8 10.2 10.3 98 7.1
Ohio 8.8 7.2 17.2 13.8 8.4 134 5.9
Bowling Grn 7.1 8.9 12.6 16.4 5.9 175 6.6
Miami (OH) 6.9 9.1 11.7 16.3 5.4 188 7.7
E Michigan 5.7 10.3 10.0 19.0 0.8 272 5.1
Central Mich 5.7 10.3 8.9 18.1 1.0 268 5.3
N Illinois 4.5 11.5 9.0 19.0 -1.6 305 3.6
Toledo 3.0 13.0 9.1 20.9 -4.4 331 2.0
MEAC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Morgan St 11.0 5.0 14.2 10.8 4.7 203 2.4
Hampton 10.0 6.0 14.1 12.9 2.4 239 1.4
Savannah St 9.7 6.3 15.0 15.0 1.7 255 1.5
Coppin State 9.7 6.3 15.3 13.7 2.0 249 -1.5
Delaware St 9.4 6.6 13.7 13.3 1.3 262 -0.1
NC A&T 8.7 7.3 14.2 16.8 0.0 283 -0.5
Beth-Cook 8.0 8.0 13.1 16.9 -1.2 301 -0.5
Norfolk St 7.8 8.2 13.1 15.9 -0.6 288 -0.2
NC Central 7.5 8.5 10.4 16.6 -1.2 300 0.7
Florida A&M 7.3 8.7 11.8 17.2 -2.1 310 -0.3
S Car State 6.1 9.9 10.5 19.5 -3.5 326 0.6
Howard 4.7 11.3 6.9 22.1 -6.5 336 2.6
Maryland ES 4.2 11.8 6.7 22.3 -7.0 338 1.6
MVC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Wichita St 13.2 4.8 20.2 6.8 15.2 43 6.7
N Iowa 11.1 6.9 18.9 11.1 12.0 77 7.7
Creighton 10.9 7.1 17.8 11.2 11.6 84 8.0
Indiana St 10.6 7.4 17.1 9.9 11.2 86 6.4
Missouri St 10.0 8.0 16.1 13.9 10.3 100 7.7
Drake 8.3 9.7 14.1 12.9 7.8 140 6.6
Evansville 7.2 10.8 12.7 15.3 6.3 169 7.7
Bradley 6.6 11.4 12.1 16.9 5.4 189 8.4
Illinois St 6.6 11.4 13.5 14.5 5.3 191 6.3
S Illinois 5.5 12.5 10.4 16.6 3.6 217 6.2
Mountain West Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
UNLV 11.6 2.4 25.2 4.8 20.2 12 6.9
New Mexico 9.9 4.1 21.2 6.8 16.0 37 6.5
San Diego St 8.6 5.4 20.8 9.2 13.5 55 5.6
Colorado St 6.6 7.4 13.1 11.9 9.6 109 8.4
Boise State 5.6 8.4 14.8 14.2 7.5 145 7.1
Air Force 5.4 8.6 14.5 11.5 7.2 154 4.4
TX Christian 5.2 8.8 13.5 14.5 6.9 160 6.9
Wyoming 3.0 11.0 12.3 17.7 2.2 242 4.7
Northeast Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
LIU-Brooklyn 13.4 4.6 20.1 8.9 8.8 128 2.2
Rob Morris 13.4 4.6 19.5 11.5 8.5 132 4.0
Central Conn 11.3 6.7 16.7 11.3 5.8 177 2.6
Wagner 10.5 7.5 14.4 13.6 4.1 211 3.8
Quinnipiac 9.7 8.3 14.9 14.1 3.5 218 2.8
Mt St Marys 9.0 9.0 12.9 16.1 1.9 252 3.4
Sacred Hrt 8.9 9.1 13.9 16.1 2.4 240 3.4
St Fran (NY) 8.7 9.3 13.3 15.7 1.5 259 2.1
Monmouth 7.1 10.9 8.9 19.1 -0.8 292 5.6
St Fran (PA) 7.1 10.9 10.0 19.0 -1.2 299 3.8
Bryant 5.5 12.5 7.7 22.3 -3.1 323 4.4
F Dickinson 3.5 14.5 5.1 23.9 -6.8 337 3.9
Ohio Valley Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Austin Peay 12.7 3.3 19.9 10.1 12.5 70 5.5
TN Tech 10.8 5.2 18.0 10.0 8.4 133 2.1
Murray St 10.5 5.5 17.0 9.0 8.5 131 1.0
Morehead St 10.2 5.8 18.1 11.9 7.3 150 1.3
TN State 9.6 6.4 16.3 11.7 7.0 157 2.7
E Illinois 7.4 8.6 13.9 14.1 1.8 253 0.4
SE Missouri 6.8 9.2 12.7 15.3 0.8 273 1.2
E Kentucky 6.8 9.2 13.2 16.8 1.7 256 1.1
Jksnville St 5.5 10.5 11.3 16.7 -1.7 306 0.6
TN Martin 5.3 10.7 10.3 19.7 -1.1 296 2.8
SIU Edward 2.4 13.6 5.4 19.6 -7.7 340 1.3
Pac-12 Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Washington 13.0 5.0 22.2 7.8 18.3 24 10.5
California 12.1 5.9 21.7 8.3 16.5 35 10.1
Arizona 12.1 5.9 21.0 9.0 17.2 29 11.7
Wash State 10.6 7.4 18.4 9.6 14.6 47 8.5
UCLA 10.5 7.5 20.1 8.9 15.2 42 9.0
Stanford 10.2 7.8 17.9 9.1 13.5 56 8.8
Oregon 7.9 10.1 15.9 14.1 10.6 96 10.3
Colorado 7.3 10.7 13.4 13.6 9.4 114 8.7
Arizona St 6.7 11.3 13.1 14.9 9.0 126 11.0
USC 6.2 11.8 12.0 18.0 9.0 125 12.5
Utah 5.7 12.3 11.4 16.6 7.1 156 9.2
Oregon St 5.7 12.3 13.9 15.1 7.3 151 7.6
Patriot Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Bucknell 10.5 3.5 19.8 10.2 9.3 118 3.6
Lehigh 8.9 4.1 17.5 10.5 7.2 153 2.0
Holy Cross 7.6 6.4 13.5 15.5 3.7 216 4.5
American 6.7 7.3 13.2 15.8 2.2 243 3.3
Lafayette 6.4 6.6 12.8 15.2 2.3 241 3.4
Army 5.7 8.3 13.1 14.9 0.3 282 0.8
Navy 4.9 9.1 10.5 17.5 -1.2 302 1.8
Colgate 4.4 9.6 9.5 19.5 -2.2 313 3.3
SEC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
East W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Kentucky 14.8 1.2 28.0 2.0 30.7 1 11.3
Vanderbilt 12.0 4.0 24.2 5.8 23.2 6 11.9
Florida 11.4 4.6 23.9 7.1 21.8 9 12.0
Alabama 10.7 5.3 19.4 8.6 16.4 36 11.0
Mississippi 8.1 7.9 16.3 11.7 11.7 82 9.0
Georgia 6.7 9.3 15.4 13.6 12.1 74 12.3
Arkansas 6.4 9.6 17.1 13.9 8.8 129 8.6
Tennessee 5.8 10.2 12.7 16.3 10.3 97 13.6
S Carolina 5.7 10.3 14.3 14.7 10.3 99 12.1
LSU 5.3 10.7 11.4 16.6 6.7 162 10.2
Miss State 4.8 11.2 12.3 17.7 5.8 180 10.4
Auburn 4.4 11.6 11.7 16.3 5.0 198 9.1
Southern Conference Overall Projected Ratings
North W L W L Rating Rank SOS
W Carolina 10.7 7.3 15.9 14.1 6.0 173 3.3
App State 10.1 7.9 14.7 13.3 5.0 197 3.3
Chattanooga 9.1 8.9 15.9 14.1 3.7 215 1.6
Elon 8.8 9.2 13.7 15.3 3.2 226 3.0
NC-Grnsboro 7.4 10.6 10.1 18.9 1.3 263 5.5
Samford 5.8 12.2 10.2 18.8 -1.0 295 3.1
South W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Davidson 14.5 3.5 20.3 7.7 12.6 66 4.4
Col Charlestn 13.7 4.3 18.6 8.4 11.0 90 5.6
Wofford 9.3 8.7 14.4 14.6 4.5 207 2.7
Furman 8.0 10.0 13.2 15.8 2.6 236 2.5
GA Southern 5.4 12.6 8.8 19.2 -1.9 307 2.2
Citadel 5.1 12.9 8.4 19.6 -2.4 314 3.1
Southland Conference Overall Projected Ratings
East W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Nicholls St 11.6 4.4 19.3 8.7 9.4 112 1.1
Lamar 11.0 5.0 18.4 11.6 7.8 139 3.2
SE Louisiana 7.8 8.2 14.7 13.3 2.8 231 -0.4
McNeese St 7.3 8.7 12.7 15.3 1.9 251 0.5
NW State 6.8 9.2 13.1 16.9 1.0 269 0.9
Central Ark 3.2 12.8 7.6 20.4 -5.2 332 1.1
West W L W L Rating Rank SOS
TX-Arlington 10.6 5.4 18.1 10.9 7.2 152 2.6
Ste F Austin 9.8 6.2 18.4 10.6 5.9 176 -1.4
TX-San Ant 9.0 7.0 14.4 11.6 4.7 205 2.1
Sam Hous St 8.1 7.9 15.5 14.5 3.4 221 0.3
Texas State 6.0 10.0 12.7 15.3 -0.1 284 -0.6
TX A&M-CC 4.8 11.2 7.4 20.6 -2.2 312 5.7
SWAC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Alabama St 12.1 5.9 15.9 14.1 -0.6 287 -2.7
TX Southern 11.6 6.4 12.8 17.2 -1.4 303 0.7
Jackson St 11.2 6.8 13.0 17.0 -2.0 308 0.7
Miss Val St 10.8 7.2 11.5 17.5 -2.6 315 2.0
Alab A&M 9.9 8.1 12.3 14.7 -4.0 328 -3.2
Ark Pine Bl 8.7 9.3 9.1 17.9 -5.7 333 -0.1
Prairie View 8.5 9.5 12.8 17.2 -5.9 334 -3.7
Grambling St 6.4 11.6 6.7 21.3 -9.0 341 -0.4
Alcorn State 5.8 12.2 9.0 20.0 -9.9 343 -3.3
Southern 5.0 13.0 8.7 21.3 -11.2 344 -3.7
Summit Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Oral Roberts 14.1 3.9 19.3 7.7 13.7 54 6.4
Oakland 12.6 5.4 19.4 10.6 11.0 91 5.0
IUPUI 11.9 6.1 19.6 10.4 9.8 107 3.4
S Dakota St 11.6 6.4 18.7 11.3 9.3 117 3.3
N Dakota St 9.5 8.5 15.2 12.8 6.0 172 3.0
IPFW 8.7 9.3 14.7 13.3 4.8 200 1.7
South Dakota 6.7 11.3 11.5 15.5 1.6 258 1.5
S Utah 6.1 11.9 11.2 16.8 0.7 274 2.7
UMKC 5.0 13.0 9.3 19.7 -1.1 298 3.8
W Illinois 3.6 14.4 9.0 19.0 -3.7 327 0.8
Sun Belt Conference Overall Projected Ratings
East W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Fla Atlantic 11.4 4.6 16.9 12.1 7.9 138 4.1
Middle Tenn 10.2 5.8 15.2 13.8 5.8 178 4.7
W Kentucky 8.2 7.8 12.3 14.7 2.6 234 4.9
S Alabama 6.7 9.3 11.9 15.1 0.5 280 1.7
Florida Intl 6.3 9.7 9.2 15.8 -0.2 285 3.1
Troy 5.9 10.1 9.3 17.7 -1.1 297 3.1
West W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Denver 10.6 5.4 17.3 11.7 6.4 167 4.1
Arkansas St 8.5 7.5 14.7 16.3 3.1 228 3.3
North Texas 8.3 7.7 15.4 13.6 2.7 233 -0.4
LA Lafayette 7.9 8.1 13.0 17.0 2.1 247 3.4
AR Lit Rock 7.1 8.9 11.8 18.2 0.9 270 4.1
LA Monroe 5.0 11.0 7.9 21.1 -2.6 317 4.5
WCC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
St Marys 12.8 3.2 23.5 4.5 19.6 16 5.0
Gonzaga 12.7 3.3 23.5 5.5 19.6 17 10.0
BYU 12.2 3.8 22.7 6.3 18.3 23 7.6
San Fransco 7.9 8.1 15.6 10.4 10.0 102 6.4
Santa Clara 7.6 8.4 13.7 11.3 9.5 111 7.2
Portland 6.0 10.0 10.7 18.3 6.6 163 9.9
Loyola Mymt 5.4 10.6 12.7 16.3 5.4 190 6.7
Pepperdine 4.0 12.0 9.4 18.6 2.6 235 7.3
San Diego 3.3 12.7 9.9 19.1 1.1 266 6.0
WAC Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Nevada 9.9 4.1 20.1 7.9 12.5 68 4.2
Utah State 9.8 4.2 21.7 8.3 12.3 72 4.6
N Mex State 8.5 5.5 19.0 10.0 9.9 105 3.2
Hawaii 6.9 7.1 15.9 11.1 6.9 159 3.5
San Jose St 5.8 8.2 13.8 15.2 4.9 199 5.0
Idaho 5.7 8.3 13.6 15.4 4.8 201 3.9
Fresno St 5.6 8.4 11.3 15.7 4.6 206 5.9
LA Tech 4.0 10.0 12.2 17.8 1.5 260 3.0
Great West Conference Overall Projected Ratings
Team W L W L Rating Rank SOS
Utah Val St 7.3 2.7 19.2 10.8 3.4 223 -3.6
North Dakota 6.3 3.7 15.6 13.4 0.6 279 -3.0
NJIT 5.8 4.2 15.8 13.2 -0.5 286 -3.9
TX-Pan Am 4.9 5.1 12.5 17.5 -2.7 319 -1.1
Houston Bap 3.5 6.5 8.7 20.3 -6.4 335 -0.1
Chicago St 2.2 7.8 5.9 24.1 -9.9 342 1.7
Most of you can probably stop reading now, as we’re done with the bragging rights portion of the article. But for those who are interested in why teams are ranked the way they are, we thought we’d take a second to explain our method.
We looked back at each of the past five years, and compiled several factors for each team, heading into each season:
We then used linear regression to find out how those factors related to a team’s final power rating, and used the results of the regression to project ratings for this season. It’s a pretty simple concept; the hard part is coming up with the data to throw into the regression. Recruiting and roster info, especially, is a pain.
Here’s a summary of what we found:
Hopefully that should help you understand why teams are rated where they are. Feel free to ask us about specific teams in the comments section.
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