NFL Playoff Projections Update: Packers Gain On New England

October 9, 2015 - by Seth Trachtman

Editor’s Note: This post was written on Thursday, but not published until today (Friday). So the numbers quoted below have updated a bit after the result of the Colts-Texans game last night and new simulation runs this morning.

Four weeks into the season, it’s very early but still worthwhile to see how the 2015 NFL playoff picture is shaping up.

Here’s how our projections look going into NFL Week 5, and how things have changed since last week.

About Our NFL Season Projections

Before we get started, some brief background on our projections.

The numbers in this post are pulled directly from our 2015 NFL projected standings page, which is updated every single day until the end of the season. They are current as of Thursday, October 8.

To make season projections, we’ve built a computer simulation engine that steps through all the remaining games one by one. Win-loss odds for future games are driven by our NFL team predictive rankings.

To help smooth out the potential effects of randomness in the simulation results, we run thousands of season simulations every day, and average the results to come up with our posted projections. As a result, you’ll rarely see us forecasting very extreme results (e.g. a team going 16-0 or 1-15), even though it’s bound to happen some years thanks to good or bad luck.

However, you can take a look at projections pages under every team page, like our Patriots projections page, to get a much more detailed sense of the range of possible outcomes our simulations generated for each team.

Finally, an important feature of our season simulations is that they also incorporate variability into each team’s predictive rating, both to help model for unexpected situations (e.g. a team’s starting QB getting injured) and as an acknowledgement that our team ratings are never going to be perfectly accurate, especially as team dynamics change over the course of a season.

If you’re curious, you can also view our NFL preseason projections for 2015.

2016 Super Bowl Odds: The Top 5 Entering Week 5

Team	Odds To Win Super Bowl	Change Since Last Week
New England	20.4%	+0.5%
Green Bay	19.1%	+2.5%
Denver	15.1%	-0.5%
Seattle	8.1%	-1.0%
Cincinnati	7.5%	+2.3%

It’s looking like a three horse race in the AFC at this point, but the Patriots are clearly ahead of the pack, with roughly a 20% (1-in-5) chance to win it all. Sitting out Week 4 with a bye, the Pats saw a negligible increase in their Super Bowl win odds.
After a better-than-expected 14-point victory at San Francisco, the Packers had a solid increase in their predictive rating and Super Bowl win odds, which rose to about 19%, just short of New England. Green Bay is now the clear front runner in the NFC, especially given Seattle’s struggles on Monday night vs. Detroit, which caused the Seahawks’s predictive rating to drop.
Denver’s Super Bowl win odds fell slightly to about 15% in Week 4, with a tough 3-point win vs. Minnesota in a game in which they were favored by nine points based on last week’s predictive rankings.
Cincinnati saw a nice boost up to almost 8% Super Bowl win odds (pretty much even with Seattle) after beating Kansas City by 15 points at home, and benefiting from an increased cushion in the AFC North after Pittsburgh’s second loss.

AFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
AFC EAST	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-New England	3	0	12.3	3.7	93.10%	+0.7%	74.50%	37.40%
y-NY Jets	3	1	9.7	6.3	61.80%	+20.9%	18.50%	5.70%
y-Buffalo	2	2	8.4	7.6	35.80%	-18.2%	6.20%	1.40%
Miami	1	3	6.1	9.9	5.70%	-5.8%	0.80%	0.10%
AFC NORTH	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Cincinnati	4	0	11.2	4.8	86.40%	+13.6%	73.30%	17.20%
Pittsburgh	2	2	8.5	7.5	33.50%	-16.5%	16.50%	1.50%
Baltimore	1	3	7.9	8.1	26.70%	+12.1%	9.40%	0.20%
Cleveland	1	3	4.7	11.3	1.60%	-1.2%	0.80%	0.00%
AFC SOUTH	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Indianapolis	2	2	8.6	7.4	65.30%	+7.0%	63.60%	1.60%
Tennessee	1	2	6.5	9.5	17.60%	+1.9%	15.10%	0.10%
Houston	1	3	6.2	9.8	18.70%	-8.8%	17.10%	0.10%
Jacksonville	1	3	4.9	11.1	5.10%	-1.1%	4.30%	0.00%
AFC WEST	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Denver	4	0	12.1	3.9	93.10%	+0.7%	85.10%	34.00%
San Diego	2	2	8	8	26.30%	+5.4%	9.00%	0.60%
Kansas City	1	3	7.8	8.2	24.50%	-10.0%	4.80%	0.30%
Oakland	2	2	5.7	10.3	5.00%	+2.4%	1.00%	0.00%

x-Projected division winner y-Projected Wild Card team

AFC Top Seed

New England has a very slight lead over Denver for the top seed in the AFC (37% odds vs. 34% for Denver), with both teams currently sitting undefeated. Their schedules the rest of the way are similarly difficult, and Denver has the advantage of facing the Patriots at home later this season, which helps balance out New England’s higher predictive rating.

AFC Division Races

AFC East. The current favorite to win the Super Bowl, New England has a clear lead in the AFC East, with almost 75% odds to win the division title despite only playing three games thus far and only one in the division. The Jets still look to have a shot, but are more than six points weaker in our predictive ratings at this time.
AFC North. Already with a two-game lead, Cincinnati’s division winner odds are almost at the New England level (73%) in what has been a very competitive division in recent seasons. Big injuries to the Steelers and Ravens early on have impacted those teams adversely, while the Steelers also have a slightly tougher schedule going forward.
AFC South. Last season was “one of those years” for the NFC South, with the 7-9 Panthers claiming the division. This year could be similar for the AFC South, with the Colts struggling early but no other division team seemingly stepping up. Indy’s projection of 8.6 wins doesn’t exactly make them look like a powerhouse, but at 63% they’re still well ahead of Houston in terms of their odds of winning the division.
AFC West. Denver has an early two-game lead and is actually the AFC team currently most likely to win its division, with 85% odds. The Broncos’ offense hasn’t been as high-powered as recent seasons, but they’ve already won a key game at Kansas City and are rated nearly 6.5 points higher than second-place San Diego in our predictive ratings.

AFC Wild Card

The Jets are looking strong right now for the first Wild Card spot, while Buffalo and Pittsburgh are in a virtual tie for the second. Both the Bills and Steelers are coming off of tough losses with important stretches of games coming up.
Although we think the Steelers are currently the better team (they sit 1.5 points ahead of Buffalo in our predictive ratings), Pittsburgh’s future strength of schedule is the fourth toughest in the NFL while Buffalo’s is in the middle of the pack.

NFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
NFC EAST	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
NY Giants	2	2	8.2	7.8	41.70%	+19.5%	33.70%	1.00%
x-Dallas	2	2	8	8	42.60%	-11.5%	35.70%	1.40%
Philadelphia	1	3	7.8	8.2	29.70%	-15.5%	21.80%	0.40%
Washington	2	2	6.3	9.7	12.80%	+4.0%	8.80%	0.10%
NFC NORTH	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Green Bay	4	0	12.3	3.7	95.50%	+2.9%	88.50%	44.90%
Minnesota	2	2	8.2	7.8	33.60%	-5.8%	9.70%	2.30%
Detroit	0	4	6	10	7.30%	-2.0%	1.50%	0.10%
Chicago	1	3	4.8	11.2	1.70%	+0.2%	0.30%	0.00%
NFC SOUTH	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Atlanta	4	0	11.4	4.6	87.30%	+10.9%	58.90%	23.90%
y-Carolina	4	0	10.2	5.8	70.10%	+6.6%	37.40%	12.20%
New Orleans	1	3	6.8	9.2	12.00%	+1.6%	3.10%	0.30%
Tampa Bay	1	3	4.9	11.1	2.50%	-5.0%	0.60%	0.00%
NFC WEST	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Seattle	2	2	9.9	6.1	67.90%	+1.4%	45.90%	5.20%
y-Arizona	3	1	9.6	6.4	60.90%	-15.8%	37.40%	7.10%
St Louis	2	2	8	8	31.00%	+13.0%	15.40%	1.20%
San Francisco	1	3	4.9	11.1	3.40%	-3.6%	1.30%	0.00%

x-Projected division winner y-Projected Wild Card team

NFC Top Seed

The undefeated Packers are the clear leaders in the NFC North and have almost 45% odds to be the conference’s top seed. Although Atlanta (24% top seed odds) and Carolina (12%) are also 4-0 and have very favorable odds of making the playoffs, they both rate as significantly worse teams than Green Bay.
No other team has greater than 7% top seed odds. Even though we still rate Seattle very highly, the two losses hurt.

NFC Division Races

NFC East. The Cowboys (36%) and Giants (34%) are virtually tied in terms of odds to win the division. The Cowboys sit slightly ahead in the predictive rankings, and beat the Giants in a come from behind thriller in Week 1, which helps a lot. At the same time, the Giants aren’t stuck starting Brandon Weeden at quarterback for the next several games, so we’ll see what happens.
NFC North. Green Bay has a commanding 89% odds to win the division title already, being a very strong team already with a two game lead. The Packers are nearly six points better than Minnesota in our predictive ratings, and Green Bay also has a slightly easier future schedule. The Lions, although unlucky, have been a disappointment so far.
NFC South. After Carolina claimed the division with only seven wins last season, the Panthers and Falcons are more than halfway there only four games into 2015. The two teams are virtually tied in our predictive ratings, but the Falcons have twice the odds to win the division (24% vs. 12% for Carolina), thanks largely to the easiest future schedule in the NFL. In fact, they only have one remaining game in which our ratings don’t currently favor them to win (at Carolina).
NFC West. Seattle (46%) has a small lead over Arizona (37%) in terms of odds to win the division, and lead the Cardinals by more than two points in our predictive ratings. Though a 2-2 start — with their latest win likely getting an assist from a referee — isn’t what Seahawks fans envisioned, Seattle does have a schedule advantage going forward. The Seahawks face a tough future schedule (ranking #8 in our future SOS ratings), but Arizona’s is the toughest in football.

NFC Wild Card

Winning a Wild Card berth in the NFC is looking difficult for the lower tier teams, with two undefeated teams in the NFC South and Arizona sitting at 3-1. As a result, the odds are somewhat long for teams like Minnesota and St. Louis, but if there’s any hope for them, it’s most likely Arizona’s tough future schedule.