January 5, 2013 - by Matt Woods
The NFL regular season has come to an end, 20 teams have been sent home and seven coaches have been fired. It’s now playoff time in the NFL, and as the Wild Card round kicks off, we wanted to break down all of the playoff related predictions and contest advice we have available on the site. Some of this information is free and open to all, but most is available as part of our new premium packages.
Playable NFL spread picks (2-star or better) from our computer models are 68-56-4 (54.8%, +5.8 units) so far this season, and playable NFL totals picks are 54-31-4 (63.5%, +18.1 units). For the Wild Card round, as of Saturday morning, our models see three of the eight available spread and totals bets as playable. All of our 2012 NFL playoff betting picks including the Super Bowl are available to our All Star level subscribers.
Our game winner picks and win odds for all the 2012 NFL playoff games are available for free to all users. This weekend, our models see an 80% chance for at least one upset, and about a 40% chance for at least two; upset odds vary from around 20% to 40% depending on the game.
Premium subscribers can view our round-by-round playoff survival odds for all 2012 playoff teams. These can be very helpful for evaluating value for playoff futures bets or contests. For example, the Texans are favored to make it past the Wild Card round, but their odds to win two games and make the conference championship game are a lot lower than most people probably think — only around 12%.
Based on round-by-round team survival odds and some game-theory inspired strategy, we’re weighing in on how to optimize your odds to win bracket-style playoff predictions contests. There are several angles to think about in order to determine the best approach, including the payout structure of your pool, the number of entrants, and whether you want to maximize your odds to win a piece of the pot or take first place. The answer to those question could mean picking either the Patriots, Broncos, or another team entirely as your Super Bowl champ. See our thoughts and ask us questions in the NFL forum.
Our NFL Survivor analysis rolls into the playoffs, although now as a part of our premium NFL forums. Whether you’re in a playoff survivor pool that’s starting fresh or an ongoing pool that’s carried over from the regular season, we’ll be analyzing every team in every round from a survivor standpoint, and answering all of your questions. For the Wild Card round, the main decision is whether to even consider the Packers, the most popular playoff Survivor pick of the round, and if not, how to plot out a solid strategy for every round from the very beginning.
We’ve taken a look at some interesting playoff props and futures bets we’ve seen pop up at some of the major offshore sports books, and analyzed them for value (playoff prop analysis, playoff futures analysis). If you have a prop or future you’re considering, we’d be interested to hear about it in our subscriber forums. So far we’ve looked at things like:
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