2012 NFL Preseason Projection Highlights: Super Bowl Favorites, Toughest Schedules, Most Improved & More

September 5, 2012 - by David Hess

Now that the NFL opening kickoff is nearly upon us, here are some of the highlights of our 2012 NFL preseason rankings. Below you’ll find the …

… Toughest schedules.
… Easiest schedules.
… Most improved.
… Biggest declines.
… Most likely undefeated.
… Most likely winless.
… Highest NFL division win odds.
… Playoff bubble teams.

All the ratings below are expressed in “points above average”. It’s essentially how much we expect the team to win (or lose) by, if they play a perfectly average opponent at a neutral site.

To give you an idea of the typical range, the New England Patriots last year finished the year at +9.5, while the St. Louis Rams were the worst at -10.1. Our preseason ratings usually have a slightly narrower range, simply because the best ratings in real life will be a combination of good skill and good luck, and we’re only predicting the skill portion, not the luck.

Many of the odds below can be found on our NFL season projections page, which updates daily throughout the season, or on individual team projections pages — like this New York Giants projections page.

2012 Super Bowl Favorites

Team	Team Rank	SOS Rank	Proj Record	Super Bowl Win %
New England	1	27	12.6 - 3.4	26%
New Orleans	3	25	10.7 - 5.3	10%
Green Bay	5	32	11.0 - 5.0	10%
Philadelphia	4	17	10.5 - 5.5	10%
Pittsburgh	2	11	10.4 - 5.6	8%
Baltimore	6	1	9.6 - 6.4	6%
Detroit	8	29	9.7 - 6.3	5%

Toughest 2012 NFL Schedule

The Strength Of Schedule (SOS) values below show the average preseason rating of a team’s opponents.

SOS rank	Team	SOS
1	Baltimore	1.2
2	Cleveland	1.2
3	Cincinnati	0.8
4	New York Giants	0.7
5	Denver	0.6
6	Dallas	0.6
7	Washington	0.6

Easiest 2012 NFL Schedule

SOS rank	Team	SOS
32	Green Bay	-1.3
31	Minnesota	-1.3
30	Chicago	-1.2
29	Detroit	-1.1
28	Seattle	-0.9

Most Improved In 2012

2012 Rank	2011 Rank	Rank Change	Team	2012 Rating	2011 Rating	Rating Change
7	25	18	Denver	2.9	-4.1	7.0
20	30	10	Indianapolis	-2.1	-6.6	4.5
30	31	1	Tampa Bay	-4.0	-8.4	4.4
21	28	7	Cleveland	-2.1	-5.6	3.5
32	32	0	St. Louis	-7.0	-10.2	3.2
25	29	4	Kansas City	-3.3	-5.6	2.3
4	9	5	Philadelphia	5.6	3.6	2.0

Biggest Declines In 2012

2012 Rank	2011 Rank	Rank Change	Team	2012 Rating	2011 Rating	Rating Change
18	6	-12	San Francisco	-1.5	4.1	-5.6
24	17	-7	Chicago	-3.1	0.5	-3.6
3	2	-1	New Orleans	5.6	8.8	-3.2
5	3	-2	Green Bay	5.3	8.4	-3.1
19	15	-4	Dallas	-2.1	0.8	-2.9
13	8	-5	Houston	1.1	3.6	-2.5
29	21	-8	Carolina	-3.7	-1.7	-2.0
31	23	-8	Jacksonville	-5.7	-3.7	-2.0

Most Likely Undefeated NFL Teams

Team	Team Rank	SOS Rank	Proj Record	Undefeated%
New England	1	27	12.6 - 3.4	4.0%
Green Bay	5	32	11.0 - 5.0	0.9%
New Orleans	3	25	10.7 - 5.3	0.7%
Pittsburgh	2	11	10.4 - 5.6	0.6%
Philadelphia	4	17	10.5 - 5.5	0.5%

Least Likely To Win A Single NFL Game

Team	Team Rank	SOS Rank	Proj Record	Winless%
St. Louis	32	26	5.1 - 10.9	0.8%
Jacksonville	31	10	5.2 - 10.8	0.7%
Washington	28	7	6.1 - 9.9	0.3%
Kansas City	25	9	6.2 - 9.8	0.3%
Carolina	29	16	6.3 - 9.7	0.2%
Tampa Bay	30	21	6.2 - 9.8	0.2%
Cleveland	21	2	6.5 - 9.5	0.2%
Arizona	26	22	6.6 - 9.4	0.2%

Biggest NFL Division Favorites

Team	Team Rank	Proj Record	Win Division %
New England	1	12.6 - 3.4	71.4%
New Orleans	3	10.7 - 5.3	60.3%
Philadelphia	4	10.5 - 5.5	57.3%
Green Bay	5	11.0 - 5.0	53.5%
Pittsburgh	2	10.4 - 5.6	46.3%
Houston	13	8.4 - 7.6	42.3%
Denver	7	9.1 - 6.9	40.0%
San Francisco	18	7.5 - 8.5	39.8%

NFL Playoff Bubble Teams (Playoff Odds Closest to 50%)

Team	Team Rank	SOS Rank	Proj Record	Playoff %
Baltimore	6	1	9.6 - 6.4	55%
Denver	7	5	9.1 - 6.9	51%
Houston	13	13	8.4 - 7.6	48%
New York Giants	9	4	8.8 - 7.2	46%
Atlanta	12	23	8.7 - 7.3	46%
San Diego	11	15	8.6 - 7.4	45%
San Francisco	18	24	7.5 - 8.5	45%