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Basketball Bracketology Trends 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Iona 52.3% 39.3% 13.0%
Ohio State 96.1% 83.5% 12.6%
Creighton 47.6% 37.2% 10.4%
Texas A&M 52.4% 42.5% 9.9%
Dayton 33.8% 25.0% 8.8%
Northeastrn 51.7% 43.3% 8.4%
Miami (FL) 87.1% 79.0% 8.1%
Illinois St 12.7% 4.6% 8.1%
Providence 57.7% 49.6% 8.1%
Seton Hall 22.2% 14.3% 7.9%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Old Dominion 38.8% 59.3% -20.6%
Saint Louis 7.1% 23.8% -16.7%
Cincinnati 30.1% 42.8% -12.7%
NC State 35.2% 46.1% -10.9%
Notre Dame 41.8% 52.1% -10.3%
S Carolina 5.6% 12.4% -6.8%
Sacred Hrt 4.9% 11.2% -6.2%
New Mexico 13.6% 19.6% -6.0%
Connecticut 68.2% 74.1% -5.9%
Charlotte 16.9% 22.7% -5.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Miami (FL) 87.1% 29.5% 57.7%
Providence 57.7% 13.6% 44.2%
E Kentucky 48.5% 11.1% 37.4%
Xavier 77.4% 47.3% 30.1%
Stanford 68.2% 39.6% 28.6%
Northeastrn 51.7% 23.2% 28.4%
Butler 59.5% 34.4% 25.2%
E Washingtn 52.7% 27.8% 24.9%
W Virginia 69.7% 46.7% 23.0%
Creighton 47.6% 25.0% 22.6%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Clemson 8.5% 47.7% -39.2%
Kansas St 27.2% 60.0% -32.8%
Florida St 2.3% 34.0% -31.7%
St Johns 8.0% 34.5% -26.5%
Pittsburgh 23.8% 42.3% -18.5%
Lipscomb 4.0% 22.5% -18.5%
Cincinnati 30.1% 47.9% -17.8%
Indiana 41.1% 57.5% -16.4%
Col Charlestn 11.5% 27.6% -16.1%
Colorado 36.2% 52.0% -15.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Ohio State 25.3% 13.8% 11.5%
Kentucky 70.8% 63.5% 7.3%
Iona 33.8% 26.7% 7.1%
Wofford 50.3% 46.1% 4.3%
Northeastrn 37.1% 32.8% 4.3%
TX A&M-CC 8.7% 4.5% 4.1%
Central Mich 8.5% 5.2% 3.2%
LA Tech 25.5% 22.3% 3.2%
St Fran (NY) 19.2% 15.9% 3.2%
Columbia 19.1% 16.1% 2.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Old Dominion 23.5% 32.5% -9.0%
Sacred Hrt 4.9% 11.2% -6.2%
NC Central 56.8% 62.5% -5.7%
Ark Pine Bl 14.3% 19.8% -5.5%
Harvard 42.0% 46.1% -4.1%
Gard-Webb 8.9% 12.6% -3.7%
Sam Hous St 36.4% 40.0% -3.6%
Wisconsin 39.5% 43.0% -3.6%
Holy Cross 20.1% 23.5% -3.4%
Saint Louis 2.2% 5.3% -3.1%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
E Kentucky 41.2% 10.6% 30.6%
Kentucky 70.8% 46.7% 24.1%
E Washingtn 46.2% 25.7% 20.4%
SC Upstate 44.3% 26.3% 18.0%
Northeastrn 37.1% 19.8% 17.2%
Texas 41.0% 26.9% 14.1%
LA Monroe 17.3% 4.3% 13.0%
Wofford 50.3% 37.5% 12.8%
Yale 30.6% 19.2% 11.4%
Fla Gulf Cst 37.6% 26.8% 10.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Lipscomb 4.0% 22.5% -18.5%
Florida 10.1% 27.4% -17.3%
Col Charlestn 11.2% 24.6% -13.4%
Weber State 12.3% 25.5% -13.2%
Kansas 14.3% 26.6% -12.3%
Morehead St 3.7% 15.9% -12.3%
Villanova 26.5% 37.4% -10.9%
Georgia St 52.1% 62.7% -10.6%
Princeton 4.0% 14.6% -10.6%
Cleveland St 16.0% 26.4% -10.4%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Ohio State 27.1% 14.1% 13.0%
Kentucky 74.0% 68.4% 5.6%
Miami (FL) 2.6% 1.9% 0.7%
Duke 62.9% 62.3% 0.6%
Kansas 3.3% 2.8% 0.5%
W Virginia 1.3% 0.9% 0.4%
Gonzaga 27.1% 26.9% 0.3%
Iowa State 8.6% 8.4% 0.3%
S Methodist 4.8% 4.6% 0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Wichita St 15.3% 19.2% -3.9%
Arizona 18.8% 21.3% -2.6%
Wisconsin 27.2% 28.9% -1.7%
Maryland 2.9% 4.6% -1.7%
N Carolina 7.0% 8.5% -1.5%
Louisville 26.8% 28.2% -1.5%
Oklahoma 0.8% 2.0% -1.2%
Notre Dame 0.7% 1.5% -0.8%
Texas 36.0% 36.7% -0.7%
Connecticut 0.4% 0.9% -0.6%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Kentucky 74.0% 43.7% 30.3%
Texas 36.0% 16.3% 19.7%
Gonzaga 27.1% 13.9% 13.2%
Ohio State 27.1% 14.8% 12.3%
Wichita St 15.3% 12.1% 3.2%
Iowa State 8.6% 5.6% 3.0%
N Carolina 7.0% 4.2% 2.8%
Arkansas 7.3% 4.8% 2.5%
Miami (FL) 2.6% 0.1% 2.4%
Illinois 5.9% 3.9% 2.0%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Florida 3.0% 20.8% -17.7%
Villanova 4.1% 14.0% -10.0%
Kansas 3.3% 13.2% -9.9%
Duke 62.9% 68.9% -6.0%
S Methodist 4.8% 10.6% -5.8%
Iowa 1.6% 7.1% -5.4%
Arizona 18.8% 24.0% -5.2%
Maryland 2.9% 7.6% -4.7%
Indiana 0.4% 4.6% -4.2%
Kansas St 0.3% 3.8% -3.6%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Pacific 12.9 14.3 -1.4
Ohio State 3.4 4.7 -1.3
Illinois St 10.2 11.4 -1.2
Loyola-Chi 14.9 16.0 -1.1
Oregon St 9.9 10.7 -0.8
Geo Mason 13.1 13.9 -0.8
Rice 14.7 15.4 -0.7
Nevada 13.9 14.6 -0.7
Miami (FL) 6.2 6.9 -0.7
Akron 10.1 10.8 -0.7

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Old Dominion 9.7 8.3 1.4
USC 13.0 11.7 1.3
Saint Louis 9.4 8.2 1.2
NC State 9.1 8.0 1.0
Cincinnati 9.1 8.1 1.0
Penn State 11.3 10.3 0.9
S Florida 11.8 10.8 0.9
Boston Col 10.6 9.7 0.9
S Carolina 10.5 9.7 0.8
Charlotte 12.1 11.3 0.8

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Miami (FL) 6.2 8.9 -2.8
E Kentucky 11.8 14.0 -2.1
Northeastrn 11.0 13.0 -2.1
Texas 2.7 4.4 -1.7
Wofford 12.5 14.0 -1.4
Illinois St 10.2 11.6 -1.4
Gonzaga 2.5 3.9 -1.4
Ohio State 3.4 4.8 -1.3
Xavier 6.2 7.5 -1.3
Kentucky 1.4 2.5 -1.1

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Nevada 13.9 10.8 3.1
USC 13.0 10.0 2.9
Morehead St 15.0 12.9 2.2
S Illinois 14.6 12.4 2.2
Florida St 10.3 8.2 2.1
Florida 6.0 3.9 2.1
St Johns 10.1 8.1 2.0
Northwestern 11.5 9.6 1.9
Indiana 8.3 6.4 1.9
Kansas St 8.4 6.6 1.8