Basketball Bracketology Trends 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Miami (FL) 26.0% 13.7% 12.4%
Cincinnati 94.6% 85.4% 9.2%
San Diego St 88.4% 79.3% 9.2%
Oregon 97.7% 88.9% 8.8%
St Johns 98.2% 89.6% 8.6%
Richmond 21.8% 14.6% 7.1%
Oklahoma St 76.2% 70.0% 6.2%
Colorado St 54.3% 48.2% 6.1%
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 43.8% 6.0%
St Fran (PA) 9.7% 5.3% 4.4%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
LSU 43.0% 76.7% -33.7%
Pittsburgh 12.3% 30.5% -18.2%
Purdue 39.4% 47.8% -8.4%
Tulsa 88.3% 95.4% -7.1%
Temple 65.0% 70.0% -4.9%
Texas A&M 59.3% 64.2% -4.9%
Connecticut 45.8% 48.7% -2.9%
Old Dominion 34.4% 36.5% -2.2%
Iona 53.5% 55.2% -1.7%
Coastal Car 42.8% 44.3% -1.5%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
BYU 84.5% 43.6% 40.9%
Dayton 85.0% 47.0% 37.9%
St Johns 98.2% 69.1% 29.2%
Oregon 97.7% 71.8% 26.0%
Boise State 73.1% 48.9% 24.2%
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 27.4% 22.4%
Valparaiso 51.2% 30.9% 20.3%
Iowa 97.0% 76.8% 20.2%
Rob Morris 29.5% 16.5% 13.0%
Buffalo 58.2% 46.4% 11.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Pittsburgh 12.3% 47.1% -34.8%
Indiana 39.6% 71.2% -31.6%
Stanford 17.6% 41.7% -24.1%
Iona 53.5% 74.0% -20.5%
Cleveland St 6.7% 25.7% -19.0%
LSU 43.0% 59.9% -16.9%
UCLA 41.5% 56.1% -14.6%
Oklahoma St 76.2% 89.2% -13.0%
Memphis 8.4% 20.2% -11.8%
Purdue 39.4% 50.8% -11.4%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Oregon 97.7% 28.2% 69.5%
NC State 86.1% 18.2% 67.9%
St Johns 98.2% 30.5% 67.8%
BYU 84.5% 44.8% 39.8%
Davidson 71.6% 34.0% 37.5%
Texas A&M 59.3% 31.7% 27.6%
Michigan St 93.4% 65.8% 27.6%
Dayton 85.0% 59.2% 25.8%
Boise State 73.1% 47.6% 25.5%
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 24.7% 25.1%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Stanford 17.6% 66.0% -48.4%
Florida 5.2% 53.2% -48.1%
Indiana 39.6% 77.6% -38.0%
Texas 56.3% 84.2% -27.9%
Illinois 24.9% 49.5% -24.5%
Temple 65.0% 88.2% -23.2%
Oklahoma St 76.2% 98.4% -22.1%
Toledo 20.6% 41.1% -20.5%
Old Dominion 34.4% 54.0% -19.6%
UCLA 41.5% 60.1% -18.7%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 43.8% 6.0%
St Fran (PA) 9.7% 5.3% 4.4%
Rob Morris 29.5% 26.0% 3.5%
Duke 40.1% 36.8% 3.3%
BYU 23.2% 20.5% 2.7%
Morehead St 8.0% 5.4% 2.6%
Notre Dame 8.2% 6.4% 1.9%
Vermont 37.0% 35.3% 1.7%
Cincinnati 15.7% 14.1% 1.6%
Providence 7.5% 6.1% 1.4%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Louisville 8.0% 11.8% -3.8%
Gonzaga 68.3% 71.3% -3.0%
Coastal Car 42.8% 44.3% -1.5%
Albany 43.7% 45.0% -1.3%
Villanova 51.4% 52.5% -1.2%
VCU 29.1% 30.2% -1.0%
Murray St 48.5% 49.4% -1.0%
Stony Brook 13.5% 14.4% -0.9%
Virginia 27.2% 28.0% -0.8%
Boise State 26.1% 26.9% -0.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 27.4% 22.4%
Valparaiso 48.0% 28.6% 19.4%
Rob Morris 29.5% 16.5% 13.0%
Buffalo 36.2% 26.0% 10.2%
Lafayette 12.1% 5.5% 6.6%
Yale 26.4% 21.0% 5.3%
BYU 23.2% 18.0% 5.2%
Duke 40.1% 35.3% 4.7%
Dayton 17.8% 13.6% 4.2%
Charl South 15.6% 11.6% 3.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Cleveland St 6.7% 25.7% -19.0%
San Diego St 26.9% 33.2% -6.4%
Gonzaga 68.3% 73.7% -5.4%
Harvard 73.6% 79.0% -5.3%
VCU 29.1% 33.9% -4.8%
Boston U 4.5% 9.2% -4.7%
Coastal Car 42.8% 46.5% -3.7%
Louisville 8.0% 11.7% -3.7%
Bowling Grn 5.7% 9.1% -3.4%
Toledo 19.9% 23.1% -3.2%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
St Fran (NY) 49.8% 24.7% 25.1%
N Florida 60.1% 38.2% 21.9%
Valparaiso 48.0% 27.7% 20.3%
E Washingtn 48.3% 31.4% 16.9%
Buffalo 36.2% 20.0% 16.2%
Rob Morris 29.5% 17.8% 11.8%
Central Mich 23.9% 13.0% 10.9%
Duke 40.1% 31.5% 8.6%
Bucknell 27.7% 19.4% 8.3%
Prairie View 20.4% 12.4% 8.0%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Fla Gulf Cst 20.0% 33.9% -13.9%
Cleveland St 6.7% 20.4% -13.7%
Weber State 3.1% 16.2% -13.2%
Akron 3.8% 15.5% -11.7%
American 6.5% 15.3% -8.8%
Wm & Mary 25.7% 34.3% -8.6%
WI-Grn Bay 37.9% 46.5% -8.6%
Toledo 19.9% 28.5% -8.5%
Louisville 8.0% 16.2% -8.3%
SC Upstate 18.0% 26.1% -8.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Virginia 69.5% 67.2% 2.3%
Arizona 77.3% 75.1% 2.2%
Villanova 77.0% 75.6% 1.4%
Kansas 8.6% 8.1% 0.4%
Gonzaga 1.5% 1.4% 0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Duke 37.3% 43.5% -6.2%
Wisconsin 29.4% 29.6% -0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Arizona 77.3% 44.2% 33.1%
Villanova 77.0% 52.4% 24.6%
Wisconsin 29.4% 21.6% 7.8%
Kansas 8.6% 7.3% 1.2%
Kentucky 99.0% 98.0% 1.0%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Gonzaga 1.5% 53.3% -51.8%
Duke 37.3% 47.0% -9.7%
Virginia 69.5% 74.5% -5.1%
Oklahoma 0.1% 0.7% -0.6%
Iowa State 0.2% 0.5% -0.3%
Utah 0.0% 0.2% -0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Villanova 77.0% 29.8% 47.2%
Arizona 77.3% 38.9% 38.4%
Kentucky 99.0% 98.5% 0.5%
Duke 37.3% 37.0% 0.3%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Gonzaga 1.5% 35.2% -33.7%
Wisconsin 29.4% 49.2% -19.8%
Virginia 69.5% 85.6% -16.1%
Kansas 8.6% 19.0% -10.4%
Utah 0.0% 2.1% -2.0%
Oklahoma 0.1% 2.1% -2.0%
Louisville 0.0% 1.6% -1.6%
N Carolina 0.0% 0.4% -0.3%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Notre Dame 3.8 5.2 -1.4
Cincinnati 7.0 7.9 -0.9
Providence 4.6 5.4 -0.7
St Johns 7.6 8.3 -0.7
Tennessee 12.0 12.6 -0.7
Oregon 7.2 7.9 -0.7
Richmond 11.0 11.5 -0.5
Miami (FL) 10.2 10.6 -0.4
St Josephs 13.2 13.5 -0.3
San Diego St 9.0 9.3 -0.3

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Louisville 5.6 4.3 1.4
Tulsa 10.3 9.1 1.2
LSU 7.5 6.4 1.1
Pittsburgh 10.4 9.7 0.8
Seton Hall 11.9 11.1 0.7
Oregon St 12.3 11.8 0.6
Purdue 9.5 8.9 0.5
Tulane 14.7 14.3 0.3
DePaul 13.8 13.4 0.3
U Mass 12.8 12.5 0.3

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Oregon 7.2 8.9 -1.6
Notre Dame 3.8 5.4 -1.6
St Johns 7.6 9.1 -1.6
BYU 9.4 10.9 -1.5
Iowa 6.9 8.3 -1.4
Dayton 8.7 9.8 -1.1
N Carolina 5.8 6.9 -1.1
Cincinnati 7.0 8.0 -1.0
Providence 4.6 5.4 -0.8
Santa Clara 14.7 15.4 -0.6

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Michigan St 8.2 6.6 1.6
Purdue 9.5 8.1 1.3
Oregon St 12.3 11.0 1.3
San Diego St 9.0 7.7 1.2
VCU 7.2 6.0 1.2
Memphis 13.0 11.8 1.2
Stanford 10.4 9.3 1.1
Alabama 13.0 12.0 1.0
Clemson 11.0 10.1 0.9
Arizona St 11.9 11.0 0.9

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Oregon 7.2 9.9 -2.7
NC State 8.5 11.0 -2.5
Maryland 4.3 6.8 -2.5
St Johns 7.6 9.9 -2.4
Iowa State 3.4 5.1 -1.7
Richmond 11.0 12.7 -1.7
Baylor 3.6 5.3 -1.7
Providence 4.6 6.3 -1.7
W Virginia 6.7 8.4 -1.7
Arkansas 5.3 6.9 -1.6

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Harvard 12.0 7.9 4.1
Oklahoma St 8.9 6.2 2.7
Nebraska 13.7 11.5 2.3
Louisville 5.6 3.4 2.2
Geo Wshgtn 12.3 10.1 2.1
U Mass 12.8 10.8 2.0
Washington 12.2 10.3 1.9
Ohio State 7.8 6.0 1.9
Seton Hall 11.9 10.0 1.8
Texas 10.9 9.1 1.8