Basketball Bracketology Trends 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Seton Hall 56.9% 39.4% 17.5%
Richmond 25.0% 11.3% 13.8%
Baylor 96.0% 87.0% 9.0%
UCLA 37.8% 29.8% 8.0%
Mississippi 61.0% 53.1% 7.9%
Florida 66.1% 58.3% 7.8%
St Johns 28.3% 20.7% 7.6%
NC State 35.8% 28.3% 7.5%
Wm & Mary 41.7% 34.2% 7.5%
Georgetown 96.3% 89.1% 7.1%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
St Marys 24.2% 47.4% -23.2%
LSU 50.2% 65.8% -15.6%
Davidson 49.3% 63.7% -14.5%
Georgia 65.7% 76.4% -10.8%
WI-Grn Bay 50.7% 61.4% -10.7%
Texas 82.1% 90.9% -8.8%
Stanford 83.3% 91.7% -8.4%
Iowa 55.4% 63.5% -8.1%
Oklahoma St 54.2% 62.2% -8.0%
Stony Brook 19.4% 27.3% -8.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
UCLA 37.8% 11.6% 26.1%
Seton Hall 56.9% 35.0% 21.9%
Temple 45.6% 28.8% 16.8%
Richmond 25.0% 8.3% 16.7%
Florida 66.1% 49.5% 16.6%
Wm & Mary 41.7% 27.9% 13.7%
Xavier 84.9% 71.7% 13.3%
Texas A&M 49.0% 36.5% 12.5%
Yale 57.2% 45.2% 12.0%
N Iowa 98.6% 86.7% 11.8%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
NC State 35.8% 62.2% -26.4%
St Marys 24.2% 50.5% -26.4%
Miami (FL) 47.4% 73.5% -26.1%
Washington 12.6% 27.1% -14.5%
Geo Wshgtn 37.7% 51.7% -14.0%
Davidson 49.3% 61.7% -12.5%
WI-Grn Bay 50.7% 62.3% -11.6%
Hofstra 23.5% 33.6% -10.1%
American 14.6% 24.6% -10.0%
Texas 82.1% 92.0% -9.9%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Tulsa 75.6% 34.1% 41.5%
Georgetown 96.3% 56.7% 39.5%
Texas A&M 49.0% 16.7% 32.2%
LSU 50.2% 18.8% 31.3%
Georgia 65.7% 37.1% 28.6%
Colorado St 67.9% 40.3% 27.6%
Yale 57.2% 29.8% 27.4%
Indiana 75.1% 53.6% 21.6%
Richmond 25.0% 3.6% 21.5%
Albany 42.6% 21.4% 21.2%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Illinois 26.8% 68.6% -41.7%
Syracuse 24.1% 55.2% -31.1%
Connecticut 53.3% 84.4% -31.0%
BYU 52.3% 80.2% -27.9%
Old Dominion 54.2% 80.5% -26.3%
UCSB 19.1% 43.6% -24.6%
Hofstra 23.5% 45.9% -22.3%
S Carolina 7.8% 30.0% -22.1%
SC Upstate 24.8% 45.5% -20.6%
Coastal Car 39.2% 59.2% -20.0%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Vermont 30.8% 24.2% 6.6%
Colgate 24.0% 19.0% 5.1%
S Dakota St 42.8% 38.0% 4.8%
Wm & Mary 35.0% 30.2% 4.8%
Cleveland St 19.8% 15.0% 4.8%
SC Upstate 24.8% 20.4% 4.4%
N Iowa 30.7% 26.5% 4.2%
Harvard 39.7% 35.8% 3.9%
UC Irvine 32.5% 28.7% 3.9%
E Kentucky 21.4% 17.6% 3.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Stony Brook 19.4% 27.3% -7.9%
WI-Grn Bay 45.1% 51.6% -6.4%
Hofstra 23.5% 29.7% -6.1%
Army 8.7% 14.6% -5.9%
N Florida 39.9% 45.5% -5.6%
UCSB 19.0% 22.9% -3.9%
Texas 11.8% 15.7% -3.9%
Bucknell 16.3% 20.2% -3.8%
Jackson St 10.6% 14.4% -3.8%
Wichita St 52.2% 55.9% -3.6%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Yale 55.2% 44.4% 10.8%
Wm & Mary 35.0% 25.8% 9.3%
Lafayette 19.1% 9.9% 9.2%
Harvard 39.7% 31.6% 8.1%
Albany 42.6% 34.9% 7.8%
S Dakota St 42.8% 36.5% 6.3%
Valparaiso 28.8% 23.0% 5.8%
Oklahoma 20.6% 15.2% 5.4%
Buffalo 29.9% 25.0% 4.9%
GA Southern 20.2% 15.5% 4.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Hofstra 23.5% 33.6% -10.0%
American 14.6% 24.2% -9.6%
Columbia 2.6% 10.5% -7.9%
Coastal Car 39.2% 46.7% -7.5%
Stony Brook 19.4% 26.8% -7.5%
UCSB 19.0% 25.5% -6.4%
N Florida 39.9% 46.2% -6.3%
WI-Grn Bay 45.1% 51.4% -6.2%
TX-Arlington 5.2% 10.7% -5.6%
Dartmouth 0.3% 5.3% -4.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Yale 55.2% 26.7% 28.4%
Albany 42.6% 21.4% 21.2%
UC Irvine 32.5% 18.5% 14.1%
N Florida 39.9% 26.5% 13.4%
S Dakota St 42.8% 29.9% 12.9%
Wm & Mary 35.0% 22.3% 12.7%
Ste F Austin 56.3% 44.3% 12.0%
Bucknell 16.3% 7.0% 9.4%
GA Southern 20.2% 11.3% 9.0%
Fla Gulf Cst 32.7% 24.0% 8.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
SC Upstate 24.8% 45.5% -20.6%
Coastal Car 39.2% 58.9% -19.7%
UCSB 19.0% 38.2% -19.2%
Hofstra 23.5% 39.7% -16.2%
Harvard 39.7% 52.8% -13.1%
Connecticut 27.1% 40.0% -12.9%
E Kentucky 21.4% 32.9% -11.5%
Columbia 2.6% 13.6% -11.0%
LA Lafayette 15.6% 26.3% -10.7%
Stony Brook 19.4% 29.9% -10.5%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Duke 45.4% 27.1% 18.4%
Wisconsin 59.8% 50.4% 9.4%
Villanova 22.5% 19.4% 3.1%
Louisville 5.7% 3.4% 2.3%
Oklahoma 0.8% 0.4% 0.4%
Baylor 0.5% 0.2% 0.3%
Utah 1.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Butler 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Virginia 57.0% 74.7% -17.7%
Kansas 24.2% 28.1% -3.9%
Gonzaga 8.9% 12.6% -3.7%
N Carolina 2.4% 4.8% -2.4%
VCU 0.5% 2.7% -2.2%
Notre Dame 1.0% 1.9% -1.0%
Wichita St 0.3% 1.1% -0.9%
Kentucky 98.6% 99.2% -0.6%
Arizona 66.4% 66.9% -0.5%
Iowa State 2.9% 3.3% -0.4%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Wisconsin 59.8% 44.0% 15.8%
Duke 45.4% 32.2% 13.3%
Villanova 22.5% 18.6% 4.0%
Louisville 5.7% 2.0% 3.8%
Arizona 66.4% 64.8% 1.6%
Oklahoma 0.8% 0.3% 0.5%
Notre Dame 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Kansas 24.2% 23.7% 0.5%
Iowa State 2.9% 2.5% 0.4%
Butler 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Virginia 57.0% 75.0% -18.0%
Gonzaga 8.9% 20.9% -12.0%
Wichita St 0.3% 3.5% -3.2%
N Carolina 2.4% 4.7% -2.4%
Utah 1.2% 2.9% -1.7%
VCU 0.5% 2.1% -1.6%
Kentucky 98.6% 99.1% -0.5%
Maryland 0.1% 0.5% -0.4%
Texas 0.0% 0.4% -0.4%
Providence 0.1% 0.3% -0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Arizona 66.4% 29.8% 36.6%
Wisconsin 59.8% 42.3% 17.5%
Kansas 24.2% 12.6% 11.6%
Kentucky 98.6% 96.8% 1.9%
Notre Dame 1.0% 0.2% 0.7%
Butler 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Duke 45.4% 68.8% -23.4%
Gonzaga 8.9% 30.6% -21.7%
N Carolina 2.4% 6.3% -3.9%
Oklahoma 0.8% 4.1% -3.3%
Utah 1.2% 4.4% -3.1%
Villanova 22.5% 24.8% -2.2%
W Virginia 0.7% 2.2% -1.5%
Arkansas 0.0% 1.4% -1.4%
Iowa State 2.9% 4.2% -1.3%
Maryland 0.1% 1.4% -1.3%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Wash State 13.2 14.6 -1.4
N Iowa 6.1 7.3 -1.2
Baylor 5.8 6.9 -1.2
U Penn 13.6 14.7 -1.1
Richmond 11.1 12.1 -1.0
Georgetown 7.1 8.0 -0.9
Oklahoma 5.2 6.0 -0.9
Butler 5.8 6.7 -0.9
Louisville 3.4 4.2 -0.8
USC 14.3 15.0 -0.7

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Texas 8.3 7.0 1.3
Vanderbilt 12.0 10.7 1.3
VCU 4.6 3.7 0.9
Boston Col 12.6 11.8 0.8
St Marys 10.6 9.9 0.7
TX Christian 13.6 12.9 0.7
Oklahoma St 10.0 9.3 0.7
Florida St 11.7 11.1 0.7
Marquette 12.9 12.2 0.6
Ball State 15.4 14.8 0.6

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
N Iowa 6.1 8.0 -1.9
Louisville 3.4 4.8 -1.4
Oklahoma 5.2 6.5 -1.4
Notre Dame 4.7 6.1 -1.3
U Penn 13.6 14.9 -1.3
Butler 5.8 7.1 -1.3
Richmond 11.1 12.3 -1.1
Harvard 8.9 9.8 -0.9
La Salle 12.6 13.5 -0.9
Yale 9.9 10.7 -0.8

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Texas 8.3 6.5 1.8
Marquette 12.9 11.2 1.7
Northwestern 15.5 13.9 1.5
Vanderbilt 12.0 10.5 1.5
TX Christian 13.6 12.2 1.4
Wichita St 4.6 3.3 1.3
St Marys 10.6 9.4 1.2
Auburn 12.7 11.5 1.2
NC State 10.7 9.6 1.1
Arizona St 12.3 11.2 1.1

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Georgetown 7.1 9.5 -2.4
Notre Dame 4.7 7.1 -2.4
LSU 7.6 9.6 -2.0
Boise State 10.8 12.7 -1.9
Butler 5.8 7.5 -1.7
UC Irvine 12.3 13.9 -1.6
N Iowa 6.1 7.7 -1.6
Miami (FL) 8.9 10.4 -1.5
U Penn 13.6 15.1 -1.5
Kansas 2.4 3.6 -1.3

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Northwestern 15.5 12.1 3.4
Marquette 12.9 9.9 3.0
Hofstra 14.7 12.1 2.6
Connecticut 10.9 8.4 2.5
California 11.8 9.5 2.3
Vanderbilt 12.0 9.8 2.1
Tulane 14.5 12.4 2.1
Geo Mason 15.0 13.0 2.1
Florida 9.5 7.5 2.0
USC 14.3 12.4 1.9