Basketball Bracketology Trends 2013
Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 63.6% | 36.4% |
| Kentucky | 55.4% | 48.5% | 7.0% |
| Virginia | 53.1% | 47.2% | 5.9% |
| Denver | 9.8% | 8.2% | 1.6% |
| Iowa | 8.9% | 7.4% | 1.4% |
| S Mississippi | 63.4% | 62.2% | 1.2% |
| Florida St | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Stanford | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Air Force | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maryland | 3.2% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Tech | 47.4% | 57.9% | -10.5% |
| Wichita St | 65.9% | 71.4% | -5.5% |
| Cincinnati | 67.3% | 71.8% | -4.5% |
| Tennessee | 22.3% | 26.8% | -4.4% |
| La Salle | 64.0% | 68.4% | -4.4% |
| Middle Tenn | 56.0% | 59.4% | -3.3% |
| Alabama | 9.9% | 12.9% | -3.1% |
| California | 89.6% | 92.4% | -2.8% |
| Temple | 88.3% | 90.5% | -2.1% |
| San Diego St | 85.8% | 87.7% | -1.9% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC A&T | 100.0% | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| N Mex State | 100.0% | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| Pacific | 100.0% | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| NW State | 100.0% | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Albany | 100.0% | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| S Dakota St | 100.0% | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| James Mad | 100.0% | 42.2% | 57.8% |
| Montana | 100.0% | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| W Kentucky | 100.0% | 54.6% | 45.4% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ste F Austin | 0.1% | 52.0% | -51.9% |
| Denver | 9.8% | 59.1% | -49.3% |
| Weber State | 0.0% | 49.1% | -49.1% |
| N Dakota St | 0.0% | 48.1% | -48.0% |
| Ohio | 1.1% | 44.7% | -43.6% |
| LA Tech | 47.4% | 83.9% | -36.6% |
| Middle Tenn | 56.0% | 75.3% | -19.3% |
| Boise State | 51.4% | 69.3% | -17.9% |
| Baylor | 1.9% | 14.2% | -12.3% |
| Tennessee | 22.3% | 32.7% | -10.4% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 100.0% | 0.9% | 99.1% |
| W Kentucky | 100.0% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
| NC A&T | 100.0% | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| James Mad | 100.0% | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| LIU-Brooklyn | 100.0% | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| Albany | 100.0% | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| Pacific | 100.0% | 17.7% | 82.3% |
| N Mex State | 100.0% | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Fla Gulf Cst | 100.0% | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| NW State | 100.0% | 23.4% | 76.6% |
Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | 0.0% | 63.8% | -63.8% |
| Weber State | 0.0% | 53.7% | -53.7% |
| N Dakota St | 0.0% | 47.9% | -47.9% |
| Ste F Austin | 0.1% | 47.9% | -47.8% |
| Ohio | 1.1% | 47.3% | -46.2% |
| LA Tech | 47.4% | 86.1% | -38.8% |
| Middle Tenn | 56.0% | 93.9% | -37.8% |
| Denver | 9.8% | 47.4% | -37.6% |
| Detroit | 0.5% | 34.1% | -33.7% |
| Lehigh | 0.0% | 28.4% | -28.4% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Saint Louis | 100.0% | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| Ohio State | 100.0% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Miami (FL) | 100.0% | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 4.6% | 95.4% |
| NC A&T | 100.0% | 5.0% | 95.0% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 14.4% | 85.6% |
| N Mex State | 100.0% | 15.5% | 84.5% |
| New Mexico | 100.0% | 20.2% | 79.8% |
| Miami (FL) | 100.0% | 20.7% | 79.3% |
| Ohio State | 100.0% | 21.0% | 79.0% |
| Pacific | 100.0% | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| NW State | 100.0% | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| Saint Louis | 100.0% | 23.9% | 76.1% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucknell | 100.0% | 90.8% | 9.2% |
| Valparaiso | 100.0% | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| Davidson | 100.0% | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| LIU-Brooklyn | 100.0% | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 100.0% | 0.9% | 99.1% |
| W Kentucky | 100.0% | 3.4% | 96.6% |
| NC A&T | 100.0% | 4.1% | 95.9% |
| Mississippi | 100.0% | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| James Mad | 100.0% | 7.0% | 93.0% |
| Ohio State | 100.0% | 9.0% | 91.0% |
| LIU-Brooklyn | 100.0% | 12.4% | 87.6% |
| Oregon | 100.0% | 13.8% | 86.2% |
| Albany | 100.0% | 15.1% | 84.9% |
| N Mex State | 100.0% | 15.9% | 84.1% |
Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard | 100.0% | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| Gonzaga | 100.0% | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| Belmont | 100.0% | 68.6% | 31.4% |
| Southern | 100.0% | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Davidson | 100.0% | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| Bucknell | 100.0% | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Valparaiso | 100.0% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| Memphis | 100.0% | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Akron | 100.0% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Creighton | 100.0% | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 62.5% | 54.1% | 8.4% |
| Gonzaga | 22.6% | 21.2% | 1.3% |
| Ohio State | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Kansas | 85.5% | 84.9% | 0.6% |
| Duke | 70.1% | 69.8% | 0.3% |
| Saint Louis | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Michigan | 5.9% | 5.8% | 0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 8.1% | 14.7% | -6.6% |
| Georgetown | 30.6% | 32.4% | -1.8% |
| Louisville | 45.6% | 47.2% | -1.6% |
| New Mexico | 19.2% | 19.7% | -0.5% |
| Michigan St | 3.3% | 3.6% | -0.3% |
| Indiana | 38.2% | 38.5% | -0.2% |
| Marquette | 2.6% | 2.8% | -0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | 62.5% | 47.2% | 15.3% |
| Kansas | 85.5% | 73.0% | 12.5% |
| New Mexico | 19.2% | 11.2% | 8.0% |
| Gonzaga | 22.6% | 17.1% | 5.4% |
| Georgetown | 30.6% | 25.3% | 5.2% |
| Ohio State | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% |
| Saint Louis | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 38.2% | 68.1% | -29.9% |
| Duke | 70.1% | 78.1% | -8.0% |
| Louisville | 45.6% | 51.2% | -5.6% |
| Michigan | 5.9% | 7.9% | -2.0% |
| Marquette | 2.6% | 3.7% | -1.1% |
| Florida | 8.1% | 9.1% | -1.0% |
| Michigan St | 3.3% | 3.6% | -0.3% |
| Arizona | 0.9% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
| UCLA | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 45.6% | 16.0% | 29.6% |
| Kansas | 85.5% | 64.7% | 20.8% |
| Georgetown | 30.6% | 10.3% | 20.3% |
| Duke | 70.1% | 51.9% | 18.2% |
| Gonzaga | 22.6% | 6.6% | 16.0% |
| New Mexico | 19.2% | 8.0% | 11.2% |
| Ohio State | 2.7% | 0.1% | 2.6% |
| Marquette | 2.6% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| Saint Louis | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| UCLA | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 8.1% | 55.4% | -47.3% |
| Indiana | 38.2% | 80.8% | -42.6% |
| Miami (FL) | 62.5% | 80.2% | -17.7% |
| Syracuse | 0.1% | 7.6% | -7.5% |
| Arizona | 0.9% | 5.5% | -4.6% |
| Wisconsin | 0.1% | 1.0% | -1.0% |
| Michigan | 5.9% | 6.3% | -0.4% |
| Kansas St | 0.1% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| UNLV | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Oklahoma St | 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
Projected Avg. Seed
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 9.4 | 10.0 | -0.5 |
| S Mississippi | 11.8 | 12.2 | -0.5 |
| Virginia | 8.4 | 8.8 | -0.4 |
| Saint Louis | 4.4 | 4.6 | -0.3 |
| Ohio | 13.3 | 13.6 | -0.3 |
| Ohio State | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Alabama | 11.8 | 11.9 | -0.2 |
| Maryland | 13.1 | 13.3 | -0.2 |
| Florida St | 12.5 | 12.7 | -0.2 |
| Denver | 13.1 | 13.3 | -0.2 |
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday
| Team | Now | Yesterday | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 7.8 | 7.2 | 0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 6.2 | 5.8 | 0.4 |
| Florida | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| N Carolina | 7.9 | 7.6 | 0.3 |
| Akron | 10.6 | 10.5 | 0.1 |
| Ste F Austin | 13.9 | 13.8 | 0.1 |
| Belmont | 10.7 | 10.5 | 0.1 |
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis | 4.4 | 5.3 | -1.0 |
| Oregon | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 |
| Wichita St | 9.3 | 10.0 | -0.7 |
| Mississippi | 9.4 | 10.1 | -0.6 |
| Ohio State | 3.5 | 4.0 | -0.6 |
| VCU | 7.8 | 8.3 | -0.5 |
| Creighton | 8.2 | 8.6 | -0.4 |
| Missouri | 9.9 | 10.3 | -0.4 |
| Syracuse | 5.9 | 6.3 | -0.4 |
| Butler | 8.0 | 8.2 | -0.3 |
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago
| Team | Now | 1 Week Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado St | 8.2 | 7.0 | 1.1 |
| Oklahoma | 8.5 | 7.6 | 0.9 |
| Xavier | 12.7 | 11.9 | 0.7 |
| Stanford | 13.4 | 12.7 | 0.7 |
| Baylor | 12.8 | 12.1 | 0.7 |
| Minnesota | 8.1 | 7.5 | 0.7 |
| Washington | 13.2 | 12.5 | 0.7 |
| Arkansas | 13.2 | 12.5 | 0.6 |
| Providence | 12.6 | 12.0 | 0.6 |
| Florida St | 12.5 | 12.0 | 0.6 |
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 3.5 | 6.8 | -3.3 |
| Saint Louis | 4.4 | 6.9 | -2.5 |
| Marquette | 3.6 | 5.5 | -1.9 |
| Creighton | 8.2 | 9.9 | -1.7 |
| Butler | 8.0 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| Memphis | 5.9 | 7.3 | -1.4 |
| Temple | 8.5 | 9.6 | -1.1 |
| UCLA | 4.8 | 5.8 | -1.0 |
| Georgetown | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| Louisville | 1.7 | 2.6 | -0.9 |
Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago
| Team | Now | 3 Weeks Ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 5.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Wichita St | 9.3 | 7.5 | 1.8 |
| San Diego St | 11.3 | 9.7 | 1.6 |
| Wisconsin | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 |
| Providence | 12.6 | 11.0 | 1.6 |
| Arkansas | 13.2 | 11.6 | 1.5 |
| LA Tech | 11.9 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
| Colorado St | 8.2 | 6.7 | 1.5 |
| UNLV | 7.4 | 5.9 | 1.5 |
| St Johns | 13.3 | 11.8 | 1.5 |
