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Basketball Bracketology Trends 2015

Every day, we run thousands of computer simulations of the college basketball season, including all remaining regular season games, all conference tournaments, NCAA selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. Why this matters.


Odds To Get An NCAA Bid

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Cincinnati 68.8% 52.2% 16.6%
St Fran (PA) 28.3% 21.7% 6.6%
Toledo 33.8% 28.1% 5.8%
NC State 50.9% 45.7% 5.2%
Central Mich 15.0% 9.9% 5.2%
Ark Pine Bl 16.2% 11.5% 4.7%
Murray St 24.6% 20.3% 4.2%
Texas Tech 5.0% 0.9% 4.2%
High Point 8.4% 4.9% 3.5%
Washington 50.2% 47.2% 3.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Stanford 45.9% 54.6% -8.7%
NC-Wilmgton 18.5% 24.7% -6.2%
Alcorn State 6.8% 10.1% -3.3%
Georgetown 66.4% 69.7% -3.2%
St Fran (NY) 9.4% 12.5% -3.1%
Buffalo 49.3% 52.4% -3.1%
Rob Morris 8.5% 11.5% -3.0%
Northeastrn 20.3% 23.3% -2.9%
Pittsburgh 10.6% 13.5% -2.9%
San Diego St 90.5% 93.2% -2.7%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Oklahoma St 51.6% 32.1% 19.4%
Old Dominion 70.2% 52.2% 18.0%
Cincinnati 68.8% 54.1% 14.6%
Rhode Island 35.9% 23.6% 12.3%
Murray St 24.6% 12.9% 11.7%
Oregon 24.6% 13.1% 11.5%
VCU 94.3% 82.8% 11.5%
Notre Dame 46.4% 35.8% 10.6%
Oklahoma 91.9% 82.6% 9.3%
Xavier 83.5% 75.1% 8.4%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
UCSB 55.0% 71.4% -16.4%
Evansville 46.7% 62.8% -16.1%
Stanford 45.9% 61.0% -15.1%
Mississippi 16.8% 30.6% -13.8%
Geo Wshgtn 32.9% 45.9% -13.0%
Iowa 56.0% 68.5% -12.5%
Colorado St 62.8% 75.3% -12.5%
San Fransco 1.9% 13.2% -11.3%
Illinois 70.6% 81.5% -10.9%
Belmont 18.9% 29.5% -10.6%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Washington 50.2% 10.9% 39.3%
Cincinnati 68.8% 36.8% 31.9%
Old Dominion 70.2% 38.6% 31.6%
Baylor 84.9% 58.1% 26.8%
Minnesota 43.0% 16.4% 26.7%
St Johns 40.3% 16.4% 23.8%
Hofstra 34.1% 11.4% 22.7%
Oklahoma 91.9% 70.4% 21.4%
S Carolina 27.4% 7.7% 19.7%
Rhode Island 35.9% 16.9% 19.0%

Odds To Get An NCAA Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Creighton 15.2% 48.0% -32.8%
Providence 20.3% 52.7% -32.5%
U Mass 16.6% 45.1% -28.5%
Stanford 45.9% 73.1% -27.2%
Syracuse 34.8% 59.8% -25.0%
Michigan 4.2% 28.1% -23.9%
UC Irvine 19.5% 42.9% -23.3%
Iona 53.5% 76.1% -22.6%
Texas A&M 31.2% 53.3% -22.1%
Memphis 43.1% 63.4% -20.3%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
St Fran (PA) 28.2% 21.7% 6.5%
Ark Pine Bl 16.2% 11.5% 4.7%
Murray St 24.3% 20.0% 4.2%
High Point 8.3% 4.9% 3.4%
Central Mich 10.8% 7.6% 3.1%
Ohio State 29.5% 26.4% 3.1%
Cincinnati 16.3% 13.2% 3.1%
Toledo 23.1% 20.0% 3.1%
NC Central 64.2% 61.3% 2.8%
WI-Grn Bay 50.3% 47.8% 2.5%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
NC-Wilmgton 14.5% 18.5% -4.0%
Alcorn State 6.8% 10.1% -3.3%
St Fran (NY) 9.4% 12.5% -3.1%
Rob Morris 8.5% 11.5% -3.0%
N Florida 18.0% 20.7% -2.7%
Buffalo 24.8% 27.3% -2.5%
Ste F Austin 46.4% 48.8% -2.4%
San Diego St 37.8% 40.1% -2.4%
Detroit 8.9% 11.0% -2.1%
Coastal Car 53.9% 55.8% -1.9%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Murray St 24.3% 12.8% 11.4%
Sam Hous St 47.8% 39.9% 8.0%
Arizona 44.4% 36.6% 7.8%
SC Upstate 42.0% 34.6% 7.4%
St Fran (PA) 28.2% 21.3% 6.9%
VCU 35.7% 29.2% 6.5%
Texas 32.7% 26.7% 6.0%
N Dakota St 14.1% 8.6% 5.6%
Coastal Car 53.9% 48.7% 5.1%
LA Lafayette 13.7% 8.7% 5.0%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Belmont 18.4% 27.3% -8.8%
Ste F Austin 46.4% 54.0% -7.6%
Fla Gulf Cst 36.3% 42.7% -6.4%
St Fran (NY) 9.4% 15.7% -6.3%
UCSB 45.3% 51.4% -6.1%
Akron 8.6% 13.8% -5.2%
Lafayette 19.2% 24.3% -5.1%
Geo Wshgtn 13.1% 18.2% -5.1%
NC Central 64.2% 69.2% -5.0%
Georgia St 61.6% 66.5% -4.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Hofstra 29.0% 11.0% 18.0%
UCSB 45.3% 30.8% 14.5%
St Fran (PA) 28.2% 15.1% 13.1%
American 32.0% 19.0% 13.0%
N Hampshire 16.0% 3.4% 12.6%
Sam Hous St 47.8% 36.5% 11.3%
Villanova 43.1% 32.7% 10.4%
Rhode Island 13.5% 4.5% 9.1%
Cincinnati 16.3% 7.3% 9.0%
Arizona 44.4% 35.5% 8.8%

Odds To Get An Auto-Bid -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
UC Irvine 19.0% 35.4% -16.4%
Holy Cross 9.4% 22.9% -13.5%
San Diego St 37.8% 50.9% -13.1%
E Kentucky 25.8% 37.7% -11.9%
St Fran (NY) 9.4% 20.1% -10.7%
Yale 21.4% 31.7% -10.3%
LA Monroe 4.2% 13.6% -9.5%
Northeastrn 17.3% 26.5% -9.3%
Fla Gulf Cst 36.3% 45.5% -9.1%
Stanford 4.8% 13.3% -8.5%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Villanova 23.0% 21.5% 1.6%
Texas 23.6% 22.2% 1.4%
Gonzaga 15.9% 15.1% 0.8%
Duke 67.7% 67.0% 0.7%
Kansas 18.5% 18.1% 0.4%
Louisville 29.1% 28.8% 0.4%
Arkansas 3.7% 3.5% 0.2%
W Virginia 0.8% 0.6% 0.2%
Cincinnati 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Ohio State 16.0% 16.8% -0.8%
Baylor 1.6% 2.4% -0.8%
Arizona 18.5% 19.2% -0.6%
San Diego St 0.5% 1.1% -0.6%
Kentucky 86.7% 87.3% -0.6%
S Methodist 0.3% 0.7% -0.4%
Stanford 0.1% 0.5% -0.4%
Illinois 0.3% 0.6% -0.3%
Utah 4.8% 5.1% -0.3%
N Carolina 4.6% 4.9% -0.3%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Kentucky 86.7% 77.9% 8.8%
Wisconsin 44.1% 40.1% 4.0%
Virginia 17.2% 13.3% 3.9%
Kansas 18.5% 14.9% 3.6%
Gonzaga 15.9% 12.4% 3.5%
Texas 23.6% 20.3% 3.2%
Oklahoma 3.5% 2.1% 1.4%
Villanova 23.0% 21.8% 1.3%
Xavier 1.1% 0.4% 0.7%
Arizona 18.5% 18.1% 0.5%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
Duke 67.7% 76.7% -9.0%
Ohio State 16.0% 20.4% -4.4%
Utah 4.8% 8.8% -4.0%
Wichita St 8.1% 10.6% -2.6%
N Carolina 4.6% 6.7% -2.0%
W Virginia 0.8% 2.5% -1.7%
Louisville 29.1% 30.5% -1.3%
Illinois 0.3% 1.5% -1.2%
Stanford 0.1% 1.0% -0.9%
Iowa State 4.6% 5.3% -0.7%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Kansas 18.5% 3.4% 15.1%
Virginia 17.2% 3.2% 14.1%
Wisconsin 44.1% 32.9% 11.2%
Villanova 23.0% 12.6% 10.4%
Kentucky 86.7% 79.7% 7.1%
Duke 67.7% 60.9% 6.8%
Arizona 18.5% 14.1% 4.5%
Utah 4.8% 3.0% 1.8%
Oklahoma 3.5% 1.8% 1.7%
N Carolina 4.6% 3.0% 1.6%

Odds To Get A 1 Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Gonzaga 15.9% 33.3% -17.4%
Wichita St 8.1% 20.4% -12.3%
Arkansas 3.7% 10.4% -6.7%
Texas 23.6% 29.0% -5.4%
Ohio State 16.0% 20.4% -4.4%
Maryland 0.3% 4.4% -4.1%
Illinois 0.3% 3.9% -3.6%
Xavier 1.1% 4.3% -3.3%
Memphis 0.0% 2.5% -2.4%
Miami (FL) 0.3% 2.4% -2.1%

Projected Avg. Seed

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Central FL 14.9 16.0 -1.1
Oregon St 11.6 12.6 -1.0
Cincinnati 7.7 8.5 -0.9
James Mad 14.3 15.0 -0.7
Tulane 11.7 12.4 -0.7
Central Mich 11.5 12.1 -0.6
Texas Tech 11.1 11.7 -0.6
Bradley 15.3 15.9 -0.6
Delaware 15.4 16.0 -0.6
DePaul 12.8 13.4 -0.6

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since Yesterday

Team Now Yesterday Change
Ball State 15.0 13.2 1.8
VA Tech 12.0 10.4 1.6
Pepperdine 13.4 12.0 1.4
Duquesne 13.6 12.4 1.3
Houston 12.4 11.3 1.2
Stanford 8.4 7.6 0.8
St Josephs 14.3 13.5 0.8
N Illinois 14.4 13.7 0.8
NC-Wilmgton 13.0 12.3 0.7
New Mexico 11.5 10.9 0.6

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
VCU 6.0 7.1 -1.1
W Kentucky 13.2 14.3 -1.1
Cincinnati 7.7 8.7 -1.0
Xavier 6.6 7.6 -1.0
Air Force 13.2 14.2 -1.0
Murray St 13.6 14.6 -1.0
Wofford 12.2 13.1 -1.0
LA Tech 11.8 12.8 -1.0
Oklahoma 5.8 6.8 -0.9
Old Dominion 7.5 8.4 -0.9

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 1 Week Ago

Team Now 1 Week Ago Change
USC 13.1 11.2 2.0
Duquesne 13.6 11.7 1.9
San Fransco 12.9 10.9 1.9
Saint Louis 15.2 13.4 1.8
VA Tech 12.0 10.2 1.8
Houston 12.4 10.8 1.7
Ball State 15.0 13.3 1.7
UCSB 11.5 10.0 1.5
Boston Col 11.5 10.2 1.4
UC Irvine 13.4 12.1 1.3

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Gain Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Kansas 3.4 6.2 -2.8
Virginia 3.3 6.1 -2.8
Old Dominion 7.5 9.9 -2.5
Hofstra 12.6 14.8 -2.2
S Carolina 8.7 10.6 -1.9
Oregon St 11.6 13.5 -1.8
Utah 4.6 6.2 -1.7
Cincinnati 7.7 9.2 -1.6
N Carolina 4.7 6.2 -1.5
Harvard 8.8 10.2 -1.5

Projected Avg. Seed -- Biggest Decline Since 3 Weeks Ago

Team Now 3 Weeks Ago Change
Saint Louis 15.2 10.5 4.7
Duquesne 13.6 9.8 3.8
Memphis 9.6 6.7 3.0
Indiana St 15.4 12.5 2.9
Houston 12.4 9.9 2.6
Central FL 14.9 12.6 2.3
San Fransco 12.9 10.5 2.3
Ohio 13.4 11.1 2.3
Portland 12.6 10.3 2.2
Iona 11.5 9.4 2.1