North Carolina Tar Heels NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection

  • Atlantic Coast Conference teams:
  • All teams:
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Make Tournament

99.9%

Automatic Bid

12.6%

At Large Bid

87.3%

Most Likely Seed

#5 (21.1%)

Final Four

12.1%

NCAA Champs

2.3%

Projected NCAA Tournament Seed

NCAA Tournament Chances


Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
Total Wins NCAA Bid%
26 100.0%
25 100.0%
24 100.0%
23 100.0%
22 99.9%
21 99.8%
20 98.8%
OVERALL 99.9%

NOTE: Bid% above comes from season simulations. Some possible win totals are ommitted due to small sample size.


NCAA Tournament Win Odds By Seed
Seed Probability Win Odds
1 0.0% -
2 0.5% 5.9%
3 5.3% 3.4%
4 14.7% 2.8%
5 21.1% 2.5%
6 20.2% 2.3%
7 15.5% 1.9%
8 10.3% 1.8%
9 6.3% 1.7%
10 3.5% 1.7%
11 1.8% 1.5%
12 0.7% 1.2%
13 0.1% -
14 0.0% -
15 0.0% -
16 0.0% -
OVERALL 2.3%

*The above table shows how a team's chance of winning the conference tournament changes based upon the seed it gets. A blank value in the Win Odds column doesn't mean a team has no chane to win with that seed; it simply means that the sample size of our simulation was too small to give a reliable estimate.