North Carolina Tar Heels NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection

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Make Tournament

100.0%

Automatic Bid

19.4%

At Large Bid

80.6%

Most Likely Seed

#3 (26.6%)

Final Four

18.7%

NCAA Champs

4.1%

Projected NCAA Tournament Seed

NCAA Tournament Odds To Advance By Round


Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
Total Wins NCAA Bid%
30 100.0%
29 100.0%
28 100.0%
27 100.0%
26 100.0%
25 100.0%
24 100.0%
23 100.0%
22 100.0%
21 99.9%
20 99.2%
19 86.3%
OVERALL 100.0%

NOTE: Bid% above comes from season simulations. Some possible win totals are ommitted due to small sample size.


NCAA Tournament Win Odds By Seed
Seed Probability Win Odds
1 4.9% 7.5%
2 21.0% 5.9%
3 26.6% 4.5%
4 20.9% 3.3%
5 13.4% 2.6%
6 7.3% 2.3%
7 3.4% 1.7%
8 1.4% 1.3%
9 0.6% 1.0%
10 0.3% 1.3%
11 0.1% -
12 0.1% -
13 0.0% -
14 0.0% -
15 0.0% -
16 0.0% -
OVERALL 4.1%

*The above table shows how a team's chance of winning the conference tournament changes based upon the seed it gets. A blank value in the Win Odds column doesn't mean a team has no chane to win with that seed; it simply means that the sample size of our simulation was too small to give a reliable estimate.