Circa Survivor Contest Week 10 (2022)
Last week in Circa provided us with a few scares, and one big upset with longer term implications if Josh Allen’s elbow remains a problem.
We have a full breakdown of the results last week, followed by more detailed future value info and holiday info, and some thoughts on this week’s options and which ones are likely to be popular in Circa.
Circa Week 9 Results
For two weeks in a row now, the Circa eliminations have slowed down. Last week, eight entries were cut, with seven of those on the Bills.
Circa is at 115 entries remaining after nine weeks, representing 2% of the original pool.
The most common pick to survive were the Chiefs (38%) who needed overtime to survive, followed by the Eagles (20%), Bengals (20%), and Patriots (15%).
It’s notable that while eight entries were eliminated, only three contestants were. CRUSHEMSPORTS.COM (Bob DeLuca), who entered the week as the only contestant with all six entries remaining, picked the Bills on all six. Concentrating got them there, but also got them kicked from the contest with one upset while making up five percent of all remaining entries.
— VSiN (@VSiNLive) November 4, 2022
Each week, Jason projects the Circa pick rates to try to assess strategy and value. Last week, the Chiefs were more popular than projected and the Bengals less so, while every other projection was pretty close to how it played out.
Week 10 and Future Value Estimates
Here are some custom future value estimates for the Circa contest, accounting for the Thanksgiving and Christmas pick weeks, as well as the reduced options for games that fall during those same weeks but aren’t part of those holiday slates. These take into account our projected win odds for future weeks, and the distribution of options available in those weeks.