Since we started asking in 2017, our subscribers have reported
Survivor pool prize winnings of more than $2,992,994
That’s just the 16% of subscribers that answered our email surveys; total projected customer winnings are significantly higher.
Data we collected via survey shows that our subscribers
Won 194% more Survivor pool prize money than expected
That’s like winning a 25-person pool once every 9 years, instead of the baseline expectation of once every 25 years (and not splitting the pot with any co-winners).
The performance data tables below reflect customer reported results from 4,347 real-world pools.
Year to year, how much prize money have our subscribers won in each individual Survivor pool they entered, compared to expectations?
|Season||Pool Win %||Avg % of Pot Won||Avg Actual Pot Share||Avg Expected Pot Share||Pot Share vs. Expectation|
On average, our subscribers have won a prize in 17.3% of pools they entered. Accounting for split pots, they have won 8.2% of the prize money in those pools. That is 194% higher than the expectation of 2.8%.
Based on our customer surveys, every year, an average of
30% of our subscribers win at least one Survivor pool prize
Winning a pool is tough and our picks certainly don’t win every year. But if you’re willing to trust the process, the longer term rewards have been impressive.
Year to year, how much prize money have our subscribers won across all the Survivor pools they entered, compared to expectations?
|Season||Won 1+ Pools||Avg % of Pot Won||Avg Actual Pot Share||Avg Expected Pot Share||Pot Share vs. Expectation|
On average, 30% of our subscribers have won at least one Survivor pool prize each year. Accounting for split pots, they have won 10.1% of the prize money available across all their pools. That is 266% higher than the expectation of 2.8%.
Drilling down into the details of survey responses, we find that
Reported edges hold across a variety of pool types and sizes
It's not just a lucky performance in one type of pool driving the overall success rates.
Since 2017, how much prize money have our subscribers won in Survivor pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the specific rules of each pool?
|Pool Features||Won 1+ Pools||Avg % of Pot Won||Avg Actual Pot Share||Avg Expected Pot Share||Pot Share vs. Expectation|
|Continues Into Playoffs||18.7%||49.3%||9.2%||3.2%||2.9x|
|Season Wins Tiebreaker||18.8%||49.8%||9.4%||2.3%||4.0x|
As you can see, our Survivor picks have delivered an edge in all types of supported pools. (Note that we support combinations of these pool types, but if we break the data down further, the sample size gets too small to be meaningful.)
Since 2017, how much prize money have our subscribers won in Survivor pools they entered, compared to expectations and broken down by the size of each pool?
|Pool Size||Won 1+ Pools||Avg % of Pot Won||Avg Actual Pot Share||Avg Expected Pot Share||Pot Share vs. Expectation|
|25 or fewer||28.2%||65.5%||18.5%||8.5%||2.2x|
|26 to 50||20.1%||56.7%||11.4%||4.0%||2.9x|
|51 to 100||18.4%||51.2%||9.4%||2.8%||3.3x|
|101 to 250||15.2%||42.3%||6.4%||1.8%||3.7x|
|251 to 1,000||15.9%||32.1%||5.1%||0.8%||6.5x|
|1,001 to 9,999||11.7%||15.6%||1.8%||0.2%||7.5x|
As expected, the bigger the pool, the harder it is to win, in an absolute sense. Customer pot share goes down as pool size goes up.
However, the relative edge from using our picks (Pot Share vs. Expectation) goes up as pools get larger.
Since 2017, how much prize money have our subscribers won in Survivor pools, compared to expectations and broken down by by the number of sheets they entered in each pool?
|Number Of User Entries||Won 1+ Pools||Avg % of Pot Won||Avg Actual Pot Share||Avg Expected Pot Share||Pot Share vs. Expectation|
|6 to 10||19.2%||35.3%||6.8%||2.2%||3.1x|
|11 to 30||20.0%||18.9%||3.8%||2.6%||1.4x|
|More than 30||50.0%||29.8%||14.9%||10.2%||1.5x|
So far, we've seen solid edges no matter how many entries our subscribers submit, with the biggest edge vs. expectations seen when customers enter 6 to 10 sheets in a pool.
However, some of this is simply do to the math of calculating an edge: customers that submit more than 30 entries already have such a large expected pot share that even winning 50% of all prize money (on average) would be a lower edge than what we see in the "6 to 10 entries" group.
To calculate how much prize money one should expect to win in a Survivor pool (called the expected "pot share"), we make the assumption that all players in the pool are equally skilled.
In real life that's not exactly true; usually pools are filled with a mix of more skilled and less skilled pickers. But as long as it's a fairly even mix, this approach serves as a simple and "close enough" benchmark.
We also adjust pot share expectations for the number of entries a subscriber played in a specific pool.
For example, in a 100-person Survivor pool, baseline expectations would give each player a 1-in-100 (or 1%) expected pot share, assuming they each entered only once.
However, if a player played two entries in the pool, then their expected pot share would be higher than 1%. We account for this in the "Avg Expected Pot Share" numbers in the tables above.
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