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N Iowa at Missouri St

  Saturday Jan 28, 2012 - 5:00 pm - Springfield, MO | Odds: Northern Iowa by 1, Total Points: 124.5 | Team Pages: NIWA | MOST

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting NIWA MOST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 47.0 49.2
Field Goal % 48.3% 37.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 27.9 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 41.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 41.7% 27.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 11.7
Free Throw % 75.0% 73.6%

Ball Control NIWA MOST
Rebounds 30.9 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 20.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.2 7.9
Turnovers 7.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.3
Steals 5.8 3.5
Fouls 11.8 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIWA MOST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with NIWA MOST
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 24.6%
Player Fouled 27.4% 20.1%
Turnover 12.8% 16.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 9.9%

Odds Per Shot Taken NIWA MOST
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 24.3%