Multiple NCAA Tournament Berths On The Line In Pac-12 Tourney

March 12, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Seven Pac-12 teams enter the conference tournament with legitimate NCAA aspirations. Arizona and UCLA, the top two seeds, are virtual locks to make the field of 68. However, the next best NCAA bracket resume likely belongs to the 7-seed, Oregon. That makes for some extremely important quartefinal matchups in the Pac-12 tournament bracket.

The potential 3 vs. 6 (Arizona St-Stanford) and 4 vs. 5 (California-Colorado) games feature four teams all with different levels of NCAA tournament uncertainty.

How will Pac-12 tournament wins impact NCAA tournament bid odds?

The table below lists the chance that each Pac-12 tournament team has to make the NCAA tournament, given how far it advances in the Pac-12 tournament bracket.

NCAA Tournament Bid Odds by Pac 12 Tournament Result
Seed	Team	Lose 1st Round	Lose Quarters	Lose Semis	Lose Finals	Win Finals
1	Arizona	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	UCLA	--	99%	99%	100%	100%
3	Arizona State	--	57%	83%	93%	100%
4	California	--	5%	25%	52%	100%
5	Colorado	69%	81%	94%	97%	100%
6	Stanford	16%	36%	73%	87%	100%
7	Oregon	89%	97%	98%	99%	100%
8	Utah	0%	1%	3%	15%	100%
9	Washington	0%	0%	0%	2%	100%
10	Oregon State	0%	0%	0%	1%	100%
11	Washington State	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
12	USC	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%

Arizona State and Stanford will likely meet in the quarterfinals, provided Stanford can beat Washington State. According to our 2014 NCAA tournament bracketology algorithm, both the Sun Devils and the Cardinal are right on the bubble. Arizona State would still have an over 50% chance of making the tourney with a quarterfinal loss, but Stanford’s bid odds would drop to just 36% if they didn’t make the semifinals. Whichever team makes the semis should be able to rest easy on Selection Sunday.
Assuming Colorado knocks off USC, the second quarterfinal game of bubble teams will be the Buffaloes and California. Despite being the 4-seed, Cal is in trouble, having lost three of their last four to end the regular season. Coincidentally, that one win came on Saturday against Colorado in OT. Our numbers indicate that Cal would probably have to make the conference tournament championship game in order to feel good about its chances. Colorado is in much better shape, but at the very least seeding is on the line.
Utah is off the bubble entirely and will likely have to win the Pac-12 tourney to make the NCAA tournament. Despite their relatively sub-par resume, though, Utah isn’t a bad team…the Utes rank 38th in our New Predictive Ratings. Utah will play Washington for a chance at Arizona. Unfortunately for the Utes, running into Arizona in just the quarterfinals makes a Cinderella tourney run extremely unlikely. Our Pac-12 tournament survival odds give Utah a just under 9% chance of making the Pac-12 championship game.