Bowl Game Soft Factors: 16 Bowl-Bound Teams Affected By Coaching Turmoil

December 6, 2011 - by David Hess

If you’ve taken a look at our philosophy — or even if you’ve just taken a spin around the site — you know we’re all about the data. Our predictions are based on objective, measurable info: final scores, game dates, locations, team stats, betting lines, player stats, roster info.

But we know that the game isn’t played by robots, and that the numbers can’t tell you everything. There are some ‘soft factors’ that intuitively must be important, but can’t be measured, or are rare enough that the historical patterns don’t tell us much.

Yesterday we tackled one of those difficult-to-measure factors with our Bowl Snub Index. Teams that feel slighted by their bowl invite may bring their frustration on the field, while teams who received a very beneficial invite may just be happy to be there. (Or, who knows, maybe they try extra hard to prove they belong.)

Today, we’ll go over a factor that is easier to measure, but that has a difficult-to-predict effect — coaching turmoil. Will a coaching change fire up a team, or will it leave them mopey and disillusioned?

There are a few different ways that a team might be undergoing coaching turmoil. We’ll touch on them one by one.

New/Interim Coaches

It seems like every year one or two teams toss their old coach after the regular season concludes, and the squad is under new leadership for their bowl game. Can a team adapt to a new system in a short time, or can the new coach maintain a high level of continuity heading into the bowl?

This year there are a few cases:

Penn State vs Houston, TicketCity Bowl — Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re aware of the Jerry Sandusky scandal at Penn State. As part of the fallout, the school said goodbye to institutional icon Joe Paterno. The athletic director originally said he hoped to find a new head coach before the Nittany Lions play their bowl game, but has changed his tune. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley will coach PSU in their bowl matchup.
Illinois vs UCLA, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl — Head coach Ron Zook was fired, and will be replaced by former Toledo coach Tim Beckman. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning will coach the Illini through their bowl game. In addition, offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has left the Illini in order to become the OC at Arkansas.
UCLA vs Illinois, Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl — Head coach Rick Neuheisel was fired. Interim head coach Mike Johnson has committed to stay through the bowl game, and may or not be assisted by newly signed head coach Jim Mora.
Texas A&M vs Northwestern, Meineke Car Care Bowl — The Aggies fired head coach Mike Sherman, and named former Houston coach Kevin Sumlin as his replacement. However, defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will be the interim coach for the bowl game.
Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois, GoDaddy.com Bowl — Head coach Hugh Freeze will become the new head coach at Mississippi, and will not coach Arkansas State in their bowl game. Instead, running backs coach David Gunn has been named the interim coach.
Arkansas vs Kansas State, Cotton Bowl — The Razorbacks still have their head coach, but they are down three assistants. Offensive coordinator Garrick McGee (who commanded a unit ranked 16th in yards per play) is headed to UAB and will be replaced by Paul Petrino, the brother of head coach Bobby Petrino. Special teams coach John Smith is headed to Weber State. And defensive coordinator Willy Robinson is headed , well, out of Arkansas.
Houston vs Penn State, TicketCity Bowl — Kevin Sumlin has accepted an offer to be the new head coach at Texas A&M. Houston assistant Tony Levine will coach the Cougars in their bowl game.
Toledo vs Air Force, Military Bowl — Toledo coach Tim Beckman will be the new head coach at Illinois. Offensive coordinator Matt Campbell has been promoted to the full head coaching position (not interim). At 32, he becomes the youngest FBS head coach.
Pittsburgh vs SMU, BBVA Compass Bowl — Head coach Todd Graham left the Panthers to become the next head coach at Arizona State. It’s unclear at this point who will coach Pittsburgh in the Compass Bowl, though it won’t be Graham.

Lame Duck Coaches

Some unhappy programs have announced they’ll be seeking new hires next season, but are letting the old coach play one last game. These could go either way. The team could band together and try to send off a well-liked coach in style, or they could stop caring and merely go through the motions until the new management arrives.

This year’s examples:

Ohio State vs Florida, Gator Bowl — The Buckeyes hired former Florida head coach Urban Meyer recently. So not only is this a lame duck game for interim OSU head coach Luke Fickell, it’s also some weird sort of revenge game for Florida, as they try to beat the future team of their past coach.
North Carolina vs Missouri, Independence Bowl — Everett Withers was named the interim head coach during training camp and led the team to a 7-5 record. Former Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora will take the reigns next season, but Withers will remain the coach for the Independence Bowl.
Southern Miss vs Nevada, Hawaii Bowl — Larry Fedora has accepted the head coaching job at North Carolina, but will coach one last game for Southern Miss in the Hawaii Bowl. (Would he have stayed on for another game if the bowl were in someplace less exotic?)
Arizona State vs Boise State, MAACO Las Vegas Bowl — Head coach Dennis Erickson will not be retained next year, and will be replaced by former Pittsburgh head coach Todd Graham. In the meantime, Erickson will coach the Sun Devils in their bowl game.

Coaches On The Hot Seat Or Looking To Leave

It’s tough to say exactly which head coaches are in danger or getting canned, but if there’s any doubt, it could be distracting to the players. Similarly distracting can be cases where it’s obvious that the coach is looking to move on to bigger and better things. Here are a few situations where the rumor mills are running at full speed.

Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt, Liberty Bowl — Head coach Butch Jones has been mentioned as a possible candidate at UCLA, Illinois, and North Carolina, though at this point none appear super likely.
Texas vs California, Holiday Bowl — Mack Brown may not be in imminent danger of losing his job, but Texas boosters can’t be happy with a 7-5 record this year and 5-7 last. His recent struggles have caused enough rumors that he had to publicly deny that he was planning on retiring.
California vs Texas, Holiday Bowl — Cal coach Jeff Tedford has identical 5-7 and 7-5 records the past two years, but also has a bit more rope to play with. The Bears’ win over Arizona State and good showing against Stanford have lowered the temperature of his seat substantially, but a big loss here would crank up the heat.

We’ll try to update this post periodically, as more coaching changes are announced. If you know of something not listed on this page, leave a note in the comments, or Tweet it to us at @TR_CFB.

By the way, if you’re going to compete in a Bowl Pick’em or are planning on wagering on some of the games, make sure to check out our 2011-2012 college football bowl games section, complete with bowl predictions, bowl betting picks, and bowl pick’em advice and picks.