100,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on current team ratings
The frozen pre-tournament forecast (captured before kickoff) compared with current live odds as results come in. Δ shows the swing since kickoff; eliminated teams are marked Out.
| # | Team | Grp | R32 (now) | R32 (pre) | Champ (now) | Champ (pre) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | 100.0%(▲1.3pp) | 98.7% | 100.0%(▲85.2pp) | 14.8% |
| 2 | IranOut | G | —(▼77.0pp) | 77.0% | —(▼0.7pp) | 0.7% |
| 3 | IraqOut | I | —(▼24.7pp) | 24.7% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 4 | EgyptOut | G | 100.0%(▲38.4pp) | 61.6% | —(▼0.2pp) | 0.2% |
| 5 | GhanaOut | L | 100.0%(▲68.5pp) | 31.5% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 6 | HaitiOut | C | —(▼28.0pp) | 28.0% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 7 | JapanOut | F | 100.0%(▲16.4pp) | 83.6% | —(▼2.2pp) | 2.2% |
| 8 | QatarOut | B | —(▼36.8pp) | 36.8% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 9 | BrazilOut | C | 100.0%(▲6.3pp) | 93.7% | —(▼5.2pp) | 5.2% |
| 10 | CanadaOut | B | 100.0%(▲7.4pp) | 92.6% | —(▼0.6pp) | 0.6% |
| 11 | FranceOut | I | 100.0%(▲5.4pp) | 94.6% | —(▼10.4pp) | 10.4% |
| 12 | JordanOut | J | —(▼36.8pp) | 36.8% | —(▼0.1pp) | <0.1% |
| 13 | MexicoOut | A | 100.0%(▲3.8pp) | 96.2% | —(▼2.1pp) | 2.1% |
| 14 | NorwayOut | I | 100.0%(▲24.8pp) | 75.2% | —(▼1.3pp) | 1.3% |
| 15 | PanamaOut | L | —(▼47.7pp) | 47.7% | —(▼0.1pp) | <0.1% |
| 16 | SwedenOut | F | 100.0%(▲47.2pp) | 52.8% | —(▼0.1pp) | 0.1% |
| 17 | TurkeyOut | D | —(▼76.7pp) | 76.7% | —(▼1.1pp) | 1.1% |
| 18 | AlgeriaOut | J | 100.0%(▲35.9pp) | 64.1% | —(▼0.5pp) | 0.5% |
| 19 | AustriaOut | J | 100.0%(▲33.3pp) | 66.7% | —(▼0.7pp) | 0.7% |
| 20 | BelgiumOut | G | 100.0%(▲7.8pp) | 92.2% | —(▼3.8pp) | 3.8% |
| 21 | CroatiaOut | L | 100.0%(▲13.6pp) | 86.4% | —(▼1.8pp) | 1.8% |
| 22 | CuraçaoOut | E | —(▼21.8pp) | 21.8% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 23 | EcuadorOut | E | 100.0%(▲19.0pp) | 81.0% | —(▼0.7pp) | 0.7% |
| 24 | EnglandOut | L | 100.0%(▲3.5pp) | 96.5% | —(▼8.2pp) | 8.2% |
| 25 | GermanyOut | E | 100.0%(▲5.0pp) | 95.0% | —(▼4.3pp) | 4.3% |
| 26 | MoroccoOut | C | 100.0%(▲13.2pp) | 86.8% | —(▼2.1pp) | 2.1% |
| 27 | SenegalOut | I | 100.0%(▲24.0pp) | 76.0% | —(▼1.5pp) | 1.5% |
| 28 | TunisiaOut | F | —(▼41.4pp) | 41.4% | —(▼0.1pp) | <0.1% |
| 29 | UruguayOut | H | —(▼87.0pp) | 87.0% | —(▼1.6pp) | 1.6% |
| 30 | ColombiaOut | K | 100.0%(▲14.2pp) | 85.8% | —(▼2.8pp) | 2.8% |
| 31 | DR CongoOut | K | 100.0%(▲59.8pp) | 40.2% | —(▼0.1pp) | <0.1% |
| 32 | ParaguayOut | D | 100.0%(▲45.7pp) | 54.3% | —(▼0.2pp) | 0.2% |
| 33 | PortugalOut | K | 100.0%(▲7.0pp) | 93.0% | —(▼6.9pp) | 6.9% |
| 34 | ScotlandOut | C | —(▼59.1pp) | 59.1% | —(▼0.2pp) | 0.2% |
| 35 | ArgentinaOut | J | 100.0%(▲3.3pp) | 96.7% | —(▼15.5pp) | 15.5% |
| 36 | AustraliaOut | D | 100.0%(▲36.9pp) | 63.1% | —(▼0.4pp) | 0.4% |
| 37 | Cape VerdeOut | H | 100.0%(▲68.3pp) | 31.7% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 38 | UzbekistanOut | K | —(▼48.1pp) | 48.1% | —(▼0.1pp) | 0.1% |
| 39 | Ivory CoastOut | E | 100.0%(▲27.7pp) | 72.3% | —(▼0.3pp) | 0.3% |
| 40 | NetherlandsOut | F | 100.0%(▲8.7pp) | 91.3% | —(▼5.3pp) | 5.3% |
| 41 | New ZealandOut | G | —(▼38.7pp) | 38.7% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 42 | South KoreaOut | A | —(▼73.8pp) | 73.8% | —(▼0.6pp) | 0.6% |
| 43 | SwitzerlandOut | B | 100.0%(▲8.9pp) | 91.1% | —(▼1.8pp) | 1.8% |
| 44 | Saudi ArabiaOut | H | —(▼38.6pp) | 38.6% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 45 | South AfricaOut | A | 100.0%(▲69.8pp) | 30.2% | —(·) | <0.1% |
| 46 | United StatesOut | D | 100.0%(▲20.5pp) | 79.5% | —(▼1.4pp) | 1.4% |
| 47 | Czech RepublicOut | A | —(▼65.8pp) | 65.8% | —(▼0.3pp) | 0.3% |
| 48 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaOut | B | 100.0%(▲56.0pp) | 44.0% | —(·) | <0.1% |
Baseline frozen June 4, 2026 · live updated August 15, 2026
