100,000 Monte Carlo simulations based on current team ratings
Probability each team appears in each knockout bracket slot, based on group finishing position and 3rd-place assignment simulations.
Groups A, B, C, E, F, I
| Canada | 100.0% |
| South Africa | 100.0% |
| Germany | 100.0% |
| Paraguay | 100.0% |
| Morocco | 100.0% |
| Netherlands | 100.0% |
| Japan | 100.0% |
| Brazil | 100.0% |
| France | 100.0% |
| Sweden | 100.0% |
| Norway | 100.0% |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 100.0% |
| Mexico | 100.0% |
| Ecuador | 100.0% |
| England | 100.0% |
| DR Congo | 100.0% |
Groups D, G, H, J, K, L
| United States | 100.0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 100.0% |
| Belgium | 100.0% |
| Senegal | 100.0% |
| Croatia | 100.0% |
| Portugal | 100.0% |
| Spain | 100.0% |
| Austria | 100.0% |
| Algeria | 100.0% |
| Switzerland | 100.0% |
| Argentina | 100.0% |
| Cabo Verde | 100.0% |
| Ghana | 100.0% |
| Colombia | 100.0% |
| Egypt | 100.0% |
| Australia | 100.0% |
The single most-likely path: each group's projected top two, then the eight best third-place teams, with the favorite (bold) advancing each round. Every team appears once; % is the chance of reaching that round.
Based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations | Last updated July 13, 2026
