Championship probabilities from 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Mkt = consensus of sportsbook & Polymarket odds (Apr 2026).
| Rank | Team | Conf | Rating▼ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | UEFA | 1718.1 |
| 2 | Argentina | CONMEBOL | 1716.5 |
| 3 | France | UEFA | 1698.2 |
| 4 | England | UEFA | 1693.3 |
| 5 | Portugal | UEFA | 1684.0 |
| 6 | Brazil | CONMEBOL | 1682.3 |
| 7 | Netherlands | UEFA | 1674.8 |
| 8 | Germany | UEFA | 1669.8 |
| 9 | Colombia | CONMEBOL | 1668.0 |
| 10 | Belgium | UEFA | 1666.8 |
| 11 | Morocco | CAF | 1660.6 |
| 12 | Japan | AFC | 1659.5 |
| 13 | Croatia | UEFA | 1654.1 |
| 14 | Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 1652.5 |
| 15 | Senegal | CAF | 1647.4 |
| 16 | Switzerland | UEFA | 1646.3 |
| 17 | Italy | UEFA | 1644.9 |
| 18 | Mexico | CONCACAF | 1643.7 |
| 19 | Norway | UEFA | 1640.9 |
| 20 | Denmark | UEFA | 1639.0 |
| 21 | Iran | AFC | 1637.7 |
| 22 | Ecuador | CONMEBOL | 1634.4 |
| 23 | Algeria | CAF | 1630.1 |
| 24 | Austria | UEFA | 1629.6 |
| 25 | Turkey | UEFA | 1628.2 |
| 26 | Australia | AFC | 1627.6 |
| 27 | South Korea | AFC | 1627.0 |
| 28 | Nigeria | CAF | 1617.8 |
| 29 | Canada | CONCACAF | 1616.6 |
| 30 | Russia | UEFA | 1612.7 |
| 31 | United States | CONCACAF | 1611.2 |
| 32 | Ukraine | UEFA | 1608.9 |
| 33 | Uzbekistan | AFC | 1608.5 |
| 34 | Poland | UEFA | 1605.7 |
| 35 | Ivory Coast | CAF | 1604.5 |
| 36 | Paraguay | CONMEBOL | 1604.4 |
| 37 | Jordan | AFC | 1602.2 |
| 38 | Sweden | UEFA | 1602.0 |
| 39 | Egypt | CAF | 1601.5 |
| 40 | Scotland | UEFA | 1600.2 |
| 41 | Serbia | UEFA | 1599.3 |
| 42 | Czech Republic | UEFA | 1598.7 |
| 43 | Greece | UEFA | 1597.4 |
| 44 | Panama | CONCACAF | 1596.5 |
| 45 | Tunisia | CAF | 1594.5 |
| 46 | Mali | CAF | 1593.2 |
| 47 | Wales | UEFA | 1591.1 |
| 48 | Hungary | UEFA | 1590.5 |
| 49 | Venezuela | CONMEBOL | 1590.3 |
| 50 | DR Congo | CAF | 1589.2 |
