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NFL Odds Movement

Results Based on Opening Point Spread

Opening Favorite of 1-2.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 2 1-1-0 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 49 27-21-1 56.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 91 39-48-4 44.8%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 80 45-34-1 57.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 29 14-14-1 50.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 47 19-25-3 43.2%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 27 12-15-0 44.4%
Total 325 157-158-10 49.8%

Opening Favorite of 3-6.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 22 10-12-0 45.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 52 20-31-1 39.2%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 257 144-109-4 56.9%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 230 101-118-11 46.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 220 107-108-5 49.8%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 89 41-46-2 47.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 20 6-12-2 33.3%
Total 890 429-436-25 49.6%

Opening Favorite of 7-9.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 10 6-4-0 60.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 35 17-18-0 48.6%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 69 29-38-2 43.3%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 77 38-37-2 50.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 103 52-50-1 51.0%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 49 23-24-2 48.9%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 16 10-6-0 62.5%
Total 359 175-177-7 49.7%

Opening Favorite of 10-13.5
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
3+ toward the Opening Favorite 9 5-3-1 62.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 14 5-9-0 35.7%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 40 21-19-0 52.5%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 35 21-13-1 61.8%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 80 32-47-1 40.5%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 18 11-7-0 61.1%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 8 4-3-1 57.1%
Total 204 99-101-4 49.5%

Opening Favorite of 14+
Movement # Games Opening Fav Record Cover %
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite 5 4-0-1 100.0%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite 6 2-3-1 40.0%
Closing line is the same as the opening line 13 3-10-0 23.1%
.5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog 21 6-15-0 28.6%
2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog 2 0-2-0 0.0%
3+ toward the Opening Underdog 2 1-1-0 50.0%
Total 49 16-31-2 34.0%

About the Spread Movement Data

These tables show the ATS record of opening favorites in a game, based on the difference between the opening and closing point spread, as well as what that opening spread was.

The data is grouped into separate tables based on the value of the opening spread, ranging from small favorites to large ones. Within the tables, each line represents a different amount of movement away from that opening spread, ranging from large moves toward the opening favorite to large moves away from the opening favorite.

Opening Fav Record and Cover % refer to the ATS (against the spread) record of the opening favorite for each matching scenario. Pushes are ignored in the calculation of Cover %.