NFL Odds Movement
Results Based on Opening Point Spread
| Opening Favorite of 1-2.5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
| 3+ toward the Opening Favorite | 26 | 12-14-0 | 46.2% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 77 | 37-34-6 | 52.1% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 363 | 166-175-22 | 48.7% |
| Closing line is the same as the opening line | 197 | 89-106-2 | 45.6% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 127 | 60-66-1 | 47.6% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 95 | 49-44-2 | 52.7% |
| 3+ toward the Opening Underdog | 181 | 90-89-2 | 50.3% |
| Total | 1066 | 503-528-35 | 48.8% |
| Opening Favorite of 3-6.5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
| 3+ toward the Opening Favorite | 79 | 32-46-1 | 41.0% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 143 | 67-73-3 | 47.9% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 643 | 325-307-11 | 51.4% |
| Closing line is the same as the opening line | 545 | 260-267-18 | 49.3% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 697 | 336-343-18 | 49.5% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 194 | 91-100-3 | 47.6% |
| 3+ toward the Opening Underdog | 82 | 36-41-5 | 46.8% |
| Total | 2383 | 1147-1177-59 | 49.4% |
| Opening Favorite of 7-9.5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
| 3+ toward the Opening Favorite | 34 | 18-16-0 | 52.9% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 83 | 38-43-2 | 46.9% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 193 | 84-107-2 | 44.0% |
| Closing line is the same as the opening line | 169 | 87-80-2 | 52.1% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 267 | 127-132-8 | 49.0% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 88 | 42-44-2 | 48.8% |
| 3+ toward the Opening Underdog | 25 | 12-13-0 | 48.0% |
| Total | 859 | 408-435-16 | 48.4% |
| Opening Favorite of 10-13.5 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
| 3+ toward the Opening Favorite | 37 | 16-17-4 | 48.5% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 36 | 15-21-0 | 41.7% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 117 | 62-54-1 | 53.4% |
| Closing line is the same as the opening line | 71 | 36-34-1 | 51.4% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 138 | 60-73-5 | 45.1% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 32 | 19-13-0 | 59.4% |
| 3+ toward the Opening Underdog | 31 | 11-18-2 | 37.9% |
| Total | 462 | 219-230-13 | 48.8% |
| Opening Favorite of 14+ | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Movement | # Games | Opening Fav Record | Cover % |
| 3+ toward the Opening Favorite | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 12 | 8-3-1 | 72.7% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Favorite | 21 | 12-8-1 | 60.0% |
| Closing line is the same as the opening line | 22 | 7-15-0 | 31.8% |
| .5 to 1.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 37 | 15-22-0 | 40.5% |
| 2 or 2.5 toward the Opening Underdog | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% |
| 3+ toward the Opening Underdog | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% |
| Total | 98 | 44-52-2 | 45.8% |