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NFL Survivor Optimal Path Tool

This is designed for use as a supplementary research tool when playing a single entry in a single standard-rules Survivor pool. We strongly recommend using My Pool Picks to get pick recommendations for your specific pool(s).

(Note: When playing multiple entries, this tool can still be useful for research purposes, if you want to make your own picks or you want to tweak the picks suggested by our My Pool Picks tool.)

The Optimal Path Tool shows you, based on what we know today, how you should pick in all future weeks if you have a single entry in a single standard-rules pool, in order to either:

  • Maximize your odds to survive through Week 18, or
  • Maximize your expected pool winnings

The two goals above are not necessarily the same. Maximizing the odds of an entry surviving the season is the most conservative strategy, but because it ignores pick popularity it more often leads to sharing the ultimate prize with multiple opponents. On the other hand, maximizing the expected pool winnings for a single entry can require taking a bit more risk to pick against the crowd and avoid the most popular pick(s) of the week, but can result in a larger share of the prize when the strategy succeeds.

In future weeks, this tool will work as follows:

  1. First, select the picks the entry has already made in past weeks.
  2. Second, you have the option to "lock down" one more more future picks. This can be useful if you're dead set on picking a certain team in a certain future week with this entry. We think it's even more useful for exploring the impact of a current-week pick, by locking down this week's possibe pick and seeing what the suggested later path looks like.
  3. Finally, we run this information through our optimal path algorithms and show you the results.

Since it's currently Week 1 and there are not yet any past picks, just click the button below to see the currently optimal pick sequence for the entire NFL season, for a single entry in a single standard-rules pool.