Week 14 NFL Survivor Picks: Everyone’s Picking Seattle, But Should You? (2020)

The Seahawks have huge popularity as an NFL Week 14 survivor pick, but rules like double picks may force you to dig deeper into the well.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Picks

DK Metcalf looks to take flight against the Jets (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

We are getting down to the endgame for survivor picks, with only four weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL season. The finish line is in sight for entries that have made it this far, and you can more clearly see which teams might still have value as picks over the final weeks.

The number of teams available to players, though, continues to shrink, and that provides some value opportunities if you still have some top-tier picks (that most others have used) available.

In this post, we’ll analyze the five most popular NFL survivor picks of Week 14 using the “Holy Trinity” of survivor pick strategy data: win odds, pick popularity, future value.

The foundation of this pick analysis is the Data Grid feature of our NFL Survivor Picks product, the only tool on the market that customizes picks to maximize your edge in survivor pools.

Last Week Survivor Recap

It was yet another week where the popular survivor picks narrowly escaped with wins. Seattle was the biggest survivor loss, for both the public and our subscriber recommendations, but we were as close as any week to losing a huge chunk of public entries.

The Raiders needed a 43-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds (when the Jets inexplicably blitzed) to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, while Minnesota survived in overtime. In the end, those two popular pick barely advanced, and overall, it was a fairly high survival week yet again.

Here is a summary of the weekly pick rate by the public, and our final recommendations, for any team picked 2% or more by either.

TeamPublic Pick RateTR Pick RateDifferenceResult
Minnesota33%31%-2%Won in OT
Las Vegas26%6%-20%Won by 3
Seattle16%19%3%Lost by 5
Miami9%40%31%Won by 12
Kansas City7%4%3%Won by 6
Green Bay2%0%-2%Won by 14
Pittsburgh2%0%-2%Lost by 6

With the Baltimore result closing the week on Tuesday, 79.8% of the public survived last week, while TR subscriber recommendations survived at a very slightly better 80.9% rate.

Week 14 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis

Below we break down the public’s five favorite survivor picks this week, evaluating the pros and cons of each pick.

You’re probably thinking about picking at least one of these teams, but remember there are also other options to consider in Week 14, and highly contrarian picks can sometimes provide a solid boost to win your pool.

To get our Week 14 survivor pick recommendations customized for your pool’s size, rules, and the teams you’ve already picked, make sure you use the My Pool Picks feature of our NFL Survivor Picks product.

Note: Data referenced below was current as of Wednesday morning, and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

1. Seattle Seahawks (vs. New York Jets)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 55%
Point Spread: -13.5

Seattle draws the Jets this week, hoping not to suffer a bad case of New York, New York after the Seahawks just lost to the Giants a week ago.

The Seahawks are in their own safety tier this week, with about 10% higher win odds than the next-safest group of teams. That next group also features several teams (Kansas City, Green Bay, and New Orleans) that have been heavily used so far and are no longer available to many still-alive survivor pool entries.

Meanwhile, a lot of survivor entries have preserved Seattle for this Jets opportunity, giving Seattle extremely high pick popularity of over 50%. That popularity means that in most pools, you would advance (or get eliminated) with over half the pool if you take Seattle. That lowers the expected value of taking Seattle, but given their much higher win odds vs. alternatives this week, the Seahawks may still have a better expected value than most other choices available.

For most entries that have saved Seattle, this may be the highest value spot to use them despite the somewhat crazy popularity. The Seahawks close the last three weeks with games at Washington, vs. the Rams, and at San Francisco. They could still have some contrarian value in the future but won’t be among the top teams in terms of win odds in any of those weeks.

In addition, if your pool is still big enough that it’s now almost certain that multiple entries will survive the full 17 weeks, depending on your risk tolerance and your pool’s payout terms, you may want to start giving extra consideration to survival, as opposed to maximizing your expected profit.

2. Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville)

Survivor Pick Popularity: 19%
Point Spread: -9

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