Survivor News and Notes for NFL Week 9 2020
News, notes, and observations impacting the 2020 NFL Week 9 survivor pool landscape, straight from the TeamRankings experts.
The Chiefs are a high value choice again (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
Monday, November 9th at 2:45 p.m.
Pittsburgh narrowly survived against Dallas, as the Cowboys led most of the game, and only gave up the lead with about two minutes left. Dallas then got it close enough for one throw to the end zone but it was batted down.
That marks the fourth time this year that the most popular public choice has survived with a late play, where the game was very much in doubt. The other three:
- Tampa Bay last week stopped the Giants on a two-point attempt to tie it in the final minute
- Dallas made a field goal on the final play to beat the Giants in Week 5
- The Rams get an interception of Daniel Jones in the red zone when the Giants were trying to tie it at the end of their Week 4 game.
In all four cases, we were recommending most entries avoid using the most popular choices.
We’ll give the full recap tomorrow, after the New England game against the Jets on Monday Night Football, where a decent chunk of both the public and our picks are on the Patriots (18% for the public and 20% for TR recommendations).
Sunday, November 8th at 8:30 a.m.
The New England line against the Jets has moved up to 10 points, likely on the news that Joe Flacco will now be starting the game. If you are keeping track of the Jets’ handling of QB Sam Darnold, they have now put him back into a game after he injured his shoulder, he then missed two games because of the shoulder injury, then came back and played in the last two, and is now out again.
That line movement, along with Kansas City’s odds dropping to 10 from 10.5, has tightened the recommendations up. New England is now being recommended about as frequently as their public rate, and Kansas City’s rate has dropped (though we are still recommending them about twice as often as the public is using them). Pittsburgh Steelers’ usage is split by pool type. We are recommending them about 30% of the time in standard pools (so a little below their 43% public pick rate) but rarely recommending them in multi-pick pools where their upcoming future value is far more important.
As we enter Sunday morning, Tennessee remains the most frequently recommended team (32%) because of their low pick popularity and low future value, and that has been the case since Thursday.
Friday, November 6th at 2 p.m.
Green Bay’s win means that about 8% of the public advanced in Week 9 with the first result. Green Bay shot up in popularity due to the San Francisco absences. They were a good value choice in a vacuum, though our recommendations largely stayed away from recommending them because they have really good near-term future value (including against Jacksonville at home next week).
That win, though, does lower the expected value for other choices, because we now know that 8% of entries are 100% to advance. So you might notice that choices like New England and Houston now dropped below 0.90 EV in sample 100-entry standard pools.
Houston has almost entirely been replaced by Tennessee in our pick recommendations due to the Texans’ lowered win odds compared to earlier in the week, and their popularity relative to Tennessee. The Titans have the highest EV of any team outside of Kansas City, Pittsburgh, or Green Bay. Those other three also have significantly higher future value than Tennessee, which is why Tennessee has become the preferred choice for many entries.
But on the Green Bay/Kansas City/Pittsburgh question, here is a quick illustration of why the Chiefs are actually being recommended more frequently than the other two this week (in addition to also having the best expected value because of current popularity). We’ve discussed Kansas City having the highest future value, but that’s no longer the case, particularly for entries that could be decided over the next few weeks. Here are our current projected win odds for each of the three over the rest of the season. (You can find all this in the season view of the Data Grid, by the way.)
| Team | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Bye | 68% | 47% | 85% | 71% | 57% | 81% | 79% |
| Green Bay | 84% | 54% | 79% | 77% | 69% | 78% | 71% | 68% |
| Pittsburgh | 80% | 81% | 50% | 84% | 58% | 71% | 63% | 64% |
Kansas City is the only one of these teams that has been used by more than half of remaining entries, unless and until Pittsburgh survives this week with the 44% popularity (on top of usage by about 20% of entries previously). Green Bay has been a modestly popular choice in many weeks, and has been used by about a third of the public so far.
But Kansas City also has the fewest high win odds games over the next five weeks. We project Pittsburgh at 80% win odds in three of the next four weeks. Green Bay is at 77% or more in four of the next six weeks. Kansas City has the highest projected win odds in the final two weeks, but those are less certain to be reached by most entries, plus there is a chance KC rests starters and those odds drop. Those upcoming high win odds weeks for the Packers and Steelers are why it makes more sense to use Kansas City now, compared to either Green Bay or Pittsburgh.
Thursday, November 5th at 12:30 p.m.
Yesterday, we noted that Houston was the most popular choice and that’s because they were a better value choice than New England, because of the lower pick popularity. Well, as can happen, things shift, and small shifts can cause swings in our recommendations. Houston’s win odds dropped a bit to 71%, and that lowered their expected value. On the public front, Pittsburgh continues to rise (now 43%) and the Patriots’ popularity has also dropped (18%).
The combination of those factors has drawn Houston and New England near each other in EV. Meanwhile, two other developments have also changed the weekly dynamic.
- The Green Bay line was updated to 7 points. The NFL seems determined to get the Thursday game in as scheduled (rather than push back to Monday) and San Francisco has a massive number of player absences due to both coronavirus protocols and other injuries. Thus, Green Bay has become a viable option. The Packers have a similar EV to Pittsburgh, and are only behind KC now. They still have pretty good future value (vs. Jacksonville at next week is an attractive spot) so they are not shooting up our recommendations yet, but they are appearing in some standard pool types.
- Tennessee saw a slight upward move in win odds to 72%. This puts them in the same tier as Houston and New England in win odds, and they also have relative low future value, and are less popular right now than those other options. Thus, Tennessee has shot up in frequency of being recommended over the last 24 hours, at the expense of Houston.
Right now, our recommendations are somewhat more spread out compared to some other weeks. (Last week, we saw the opposite dynamic, where 85% of all recommendations were on the Eagles and Chiefs.) Tennessee, Kansas City, Houston, and Pittsburgh are all being recommended between 10-30% of the time, and Green Bay could also rise further as we close toward kickoff. That suggests that there are some close calls this week and you could see further shifts as we continue forward.
This doesn’t even take into account the Matt Stafford situation. He was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list because of a close contact, and is anticipated to still return by Sunday as long as he does not test positive himself. As long as he is on track to play, the Vikings-Lions win odds should hold steady, but Minnesota would shoot up in win odds (and likely still have low popularity) if he is ruled out.
Tuesday, November 3rd at 2:15 p.m.
It was very nearly a great week in survivor, as the public’s most popular choice, Tampa Bay, went down to the wire on Monday Night Football but survived when the Giants missed on a two-point conversion to tie it. As is, it was a good week where the public was eliminated at a higher rate than our recommendations thanks to the Green Bay loss to Minnesota.
Here is a summary of the weekly pick rate by the public, and our final recommendations, for any team picked 2% or more by either.
| Team | Public Pick Rate | TR Pick Rate | Difference | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 32% | 3% | -29% | Won |
| Kansas City | 28% | 41% | 13% | Won |
| Philadelphia | 15% | 44% | 29% | Won |
| Tennessee | 10% | 11% | 1% | Lost |
| Green Bay | 10% | 0% | -10% | Lost |
There were also about 2% more public entries eliminated by an accumulation of smaller upsets, such as Carolina, the Rams, and the Chargers losing. That means that 22% of the public was eliminated in Week 8, versus 11% of our recommendations (all because of Tennessee, where we were in line with the public).
Week 9 will have a host of differing options, with some games rising because of potential QB issues. Kansas City will again be a high value option at home against Carolina. Pittsburgh gets Dallas, with Ben DiNucci at quarterback. (Andy Dalton will miss the game due to positive COVID test. It’s been a tough couple of weeks for Andy.) Houston will play Jacksonville, who will be without QB Gardner Minshew. And New England tries to get right against the New York Jets in Week 9. We’ll break down the full range of what we are seeing, and where our recommendations are leaning, tomorrow.