OVC Tournament Information

2016 Ohio Valley tournament site: Nashville Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN
2016 Ohio Valley tournament dates: March 5th-8th, 2016

In our most recent calculations, we project Belmont as the most likely winner of the 2016 OVC Tournament. The second most likely team to top the Ohio Valley bracket is TN Tech.

Please note that unlike in past seasons, this year we will not be updating this advancement odds table (the top table) after every round. The values shown will freeze prior to the beginning of the first round. However, you can still find our latest projected odds for each team to win the conference tournament in the last column of the standings table at the bottom of the page.

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win

NOTE: We use the structure below to calculate home advantage:
First Round - neutral site.
Quarterfinals - neutral site.
Semifinals - neutral site.
Championship Game - neutral site.

The 2016 Ohio Valley tournament bracket odds table above lists the round-by-round survival odds for every 2016 Ohio Valley tournament team. Using win odds calculations derived from our sophisticated power ratings, we analyze the likelihood and expected outcome of every possible path to the Ohio Valley tournament championship for every team in the 2016 Ohio Valley bracket.

Projected Conference Standings

Ohio Valley CURRENT PROJECTION PLAYOFFS
East conf W L conf W L overall W L Win Conf Win Tourn
Belmont 9 2 12.3 3.7 20.3 9.7 48.4% 43.2%
TN Tech 9 2 11.9 4.1 19.9 9.1 47.7% 22.3%
TN State 7 3 9.7 6.3 18.7 10.3 2.8% 6.1%
Morehead St 6 5 9.1 6.9 15.7 13.3 0.9% 12.6%
E Kentucky 5 6 7.2 8.8 16.2 14.8 0.0% 2.8%
Jksnville St 4 7 5.0 11.0 9.0 22.0 0.0% 0.0%
West conf W L conf W L overall W L Win Conf Win Tourn
E Illinois 7 4 9.7 6.3 13.7 15.3 0.1% 1.7%
Murray St 6 5 9.4 6.6 15.4 13.6 0.0% 7.9%
TN Martin 5 5 8.8 7.2 16.8 14.2 0.0% 2.8%
Austin Peay 4 7 6.7 9.3 12.7 17.3 0.0% 0.4%
SE Missouri 2 9 3.3 12.7 6.3 22.7 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edward 1 10 2.7 13.3 5.7 22.3 0.0% 0.0%

The 2016 Ohio Valley projected standings help determine the seeds of the teams in the 2016 Ohio Valley Championship bracket. The remainder of the season is simulated a large number of times, and the resulting seeds are used to simulate the Ohio Valley tournament.

A team's relative odds to win the 2016 OVC Tournament depend only partly on their Ohio Valley bracket seed. Winning the OVC Tournament also depends on the dynamics of the 2016 Ohio Valley bracket. In some cases, the team with a better OVC Tournament seed may actually face a harder path to the OVC Tournament championship than a team with a worse Ohio Valley tournament seed.

In addition, because Ohio Valley tournament seeds are based on win-loss records in Ohio Valley conference games, Ohio Valley tournament seeds are not always the most accurate measure of a team's true performance level. This is another reason why higher seeded teams in the Ohio Valley bracket can have better odds to win the 2016 OVC Tournament than lower seeded teams in the Ohio Valley bracket.