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MVC Bracket 2015 & MVC Tournament Predictions

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Information

2015 MVC tournament site: Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO
2015 MVC tournament dates: March 5th-8th, 2015

In our final calculations before the start of the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, we projected Wichita St as the most likely winner. The second most likely team to top the MVC bracket, according to our final pre-tournament calculations, was N Iowa.

Please note that unlike in past seasons, this year we will not be updating this advancement odds table (the top table) after every round. The values shown were frozen prior to the beginning of the first round. However, you can still find our latest projected odds for each team to win the conference tournament in the last column of the standings table at the bottom of the page.

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win

NOTE: We use the structure below to calculate home advantage:
First Round - neutral site.
Quarterfinals - neutral site.
Semifinals - neutral site.
Championship Game - neutral site.

The 2015 MVC tournament bracket odds table above lists the round-by-round survival odds for every 2015 MVC tournament team. Using win odds calculations derived from our sophisticated power ratings, we analyze the likelihood and expected outcome of every possible path to the MVC tournament championship for every team in the 2015 MVC bracket.

Projected Conference Standings

Team conf W L conf W L overall W L Win Conf Win Tourn
Wichita St 17 1 17.0 1.0 28.0 4.0 100.0% 0.0%
N Iowa 16 2 16.0 2.0 30.0 3.0 0.0% 100.0%
Indiana St 11 7 11.0 7.0 15.0 16.0 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St 11 7 11.0 7.0 21.0 12.0 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 9 9 9.0 9.0 19.0 12.0 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola-Chi 8 10 8.0 10.0 19.0 13.0 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 6 12 6.0 12.0 9.0 22.0 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St 5 13 5.0 13.0 11.0 20.0 0.0% 0.0%
S Illinois 4 14 4.0 14.0 12.0 21.0 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 3 15 3.0 15.0 9.0 24.0 0.0% 0.0%

A team's relative odds to win the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament depend only partly on their MVC bracket seed. Winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament also depends on the dynamics of the 2015 MVC bracket. In some cases, the team with a better Missouri Valley Conference Tournament seed may actually face a harder path to the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship than a team with a worse MVC tournament seed.

In addition, because MVC tournament seeds are based on win-loss records in MVC conference games, MVC tournament seeds are not always the most accurate measure of a team's true performance level. This is another reason why higher seeded teams in the MVC bracket can have better odds to win the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament than lower seeded teams in the MVC bracket.