NOTE: We use the structure below to calculate home advantage.
In some cases this may not be the true game location; instead we may use a proxy location that we think makes our home advantage calculation more accurate than simply treating the location as a neutral court.
First Round - neutral site.
Quarterfinals - neutral site.
Semifinals - neutral site.
Championship Game - neutral site.
The 2021 MVC tournament bracket odds table above lists the round-by-round survival odds for every
2021 MVC tournament team. Using win odds calculations derived from our sophisticated power ratings,
we analyze the likelihood and expected outcome of every possible path to the MVC tournament championship
for every team in the 2021 MVC bracket.
The 2021 MVC projected standings help determine the seeds of the teams in the 2021 MVC Championship bracket. The remainder of the season is simulated a large number of times, and the resulting seeds are used to simulate the MVC tournament.
A team's relative odds to win the 2021 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament depend only partly on their MVC bracket seed. Winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament also depends on the dynamics of the 2021 MVC bracket. In some cases, the team with a better Missouri Valley Conference Tournament seed may actually face a harder path to the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship than a team with a worse MVC tournament seed.
In addition, because MVC tournament seeds are based on win-loss records in MVC conference games, MVC tournament seeds are not always the most accurate measure of a team's true performance level. This is another reason why higher seeded teams in the MVC bracket can have better odds to win the 2021 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament than lower seeded teams in the MVC bracket.