AAC Championship Information

2026 American tournament site: Legacy Arena, Birmingham, AL
2026 American tournament dates: March 11th-15th, 2026

These 2026 American tournament advancement odds and average projected seeds are based on our projected conference standings.

Seed Team R2 Quarter Semi Champ Win

NOTE: We use the structure below to calculate home advantage.

In some cases this may not be the true game location; instead we may use a proxy location that we think makes our home advantage calculation more accurate than simply treating the location as a neutral court.

  • First Round - neutral site.
  • Second Round - neutral site.
  • Quarterfinals - neutral site.
  • Semifinals - neutral site.
  • Championship Game - neutral site.

The 2026 American tournament bracket odds table above lists the round-by-round survival odds for every 2026 American tournament team. Using win odds calculations derived from our sophisticated power ratings, we analyze the likelihood and expected outcome of every possible path to the American tournament championship for every team in the 2026 American bracket.

Projected Conference Standings

American

  Current Projection Playoffs
Team conf W L conf W L overall W L Win Conf Win Tourn
S Florida 3 1 12.4 5.6 20.4 10.6 28.9% 24.8%
Florida Atlantic 4 1 12.3 5.7 20.3 10.7 24.1% 16.4%
Memphis 3 1 11.9 6.1 17.0 14.0 18.9% 17.7%
Tulsa 2 2 11.4 6.6 23.4 7.6 12.2% 18.0%
UAB 3 2 11.1 6.9 20.1 10.9 7.8% 9.7%
Temple 3 1 10.3 7.7 18.3 12.7 4.3% 3.1%
Wichita St 2 3 9.9 8.1 17.9 13.1 2.5% 7.1%
N Texas 1 3 9.1 8.9 18.1 12.9 0.7% 2.3%
Charlotte 3 2 8.5 9.5 14.5 16.5 0.3% 0.5%
Tulane 3 1 7.5 10.5 16.5 14.5 0.3% 0.4%
Rice 2 3 6.9 11.1 12.9 18.1 0.0% 0.1%
E Carolina 0 4 3.9 14.1 8.9 22.1 0.0% 0.0%
UTSA 0 5 1.8 16.2 5.8 24.2 0.0% 0.0%

The 2026 American projected standings help determine the seeds of the teams in the 2026 American Championship bracket. The remainder of the season is simulated a large number of times, and the resulting seeds are used to simulate the American tournament.

A team's relative odds to win the 2026 AAC Championship depend only partly on their American bracket seed. Winning the AAC Championship also depends on the dynamics of the 2026 American bracket. In some cases, the team with a better AAC Championship seed may actually face a harder path to the AAC Championship championship than a team with a worse American tournament seed.

In addition, because American tournament seeds are based on win-loss records in American conference games, American tournament seeds are not always the most accurate measure of a team's true performance level. This is another reason why higher seeded teams in the American bracket can have better odds to win the 2026 AAC Championship than lower seeded teams in the American bracket.