2022 College Basketball Bracket Predictions (March 13 Final Mock Bracket)

Our 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions have been updated for Selection Sunday, and the bubble is tough to call.

Bennedict Mathurin and the Arizona Wildcats are trying to lock up a No. 1 seed this week (Christopher Hook/Icon Sportswire)

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Sunday, March 13)

Below is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games on Saturday, March 12.

This will be our final projected bracket, with the caveat that we will update it IF one of our projected auto-bid winners loses in the Atlantic-10 (Davidson) or Ivy League (Princeton). [UPDATE: both Davidson and Princeton lost, so the bracket below now reflects Richmond and Yale in the field.]

The outcomes of the American, Big Ten, and SEC tournament finals will not impact our bracket.

Teams with an asterisk are our projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. Teams listed in green font have already secured an automatic bid. (Click to enlarge.)

Who’s In/Who’s Out

This has been a wild week, as four teams that were out at the start of the week likely played themselves in. Virginia Tech got the auto-bid from the ACC. Indiana and Texas A&M look to have gotten the big wins over top seeds to put them in, while Oklahoma might have done the same, though there are plenty of split thoughts on that one.

And then we got one more, as Richmond rallied late to win the Atlantic 10.

Here are the last six teams in as at-larges:

Miami
Indiana
Michigan
Wyoming
Davidson
SMU

Here are the first six teams out:

Oklahoma
Rutgers
Notre Dame
Xavier
Wake Forest
North Texas

This is a strong bubble year, which is why some of these choices are very difficult. All of the teams at the top of this list, and teams like Oklahoma, Rutgers and Notre Dame, get in more often than not with their profiles.

Oklahoma was in our bracket until the Richmond result. Rutgers ordinarily would get in, but the other upsets, capped by Virginia Tech winning the ACC Tournament, may have been fatal. The consensus seems to be fairly split on Rutgers versus SMU, and plenty of brackets have Notre Dame in.

FINAL SEED LIST

Here is the seed list used for this bracket:

Gonzaga
Arizona
Kansas
Baylor
Tennessee
Auburn
Kentucky
Villanova
Duke
Purdue
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
UCLA
Arkansas
Illinois
Providence
Connecticut
Houston
Saint Mary’s
Iowa
Texas
Colorado State
Alabama
LSU
Murray State
Boise State
Michigan State
Ohio State
USC
San Diego State
TCU
Seton Hall
North Carolina
Marquette
Creighton
Iowa State
Loyola-Chicago
San Francisco
Memphis
Texas A&M
Miami
Indiana
Virginia Tech
Michigan
Wyoming
Davidson
SMU
UAB
Richmond
South Dakota State
New Mexico State
Chattanooga
Vermont
Akron
Montana State
Yale
Longwood
Colgate
Delaware
Saint Peter’s
Georgia State
Jacksonville State
Norfolk State
Cal State-Fullerton
Bryant
Texas Southern
Wright State
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Friday, March 11)

Below is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games on Thursday, March 10.

Teams with an asterisk are our projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. Teams listed in green font have already secured an automatic bid. (Click to enlarge.)

Bracket News of Note

Oklahoma got the biggest win of the day, shooting from outside our projected field to now safely in, with a huge victory over Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals. We now project Oklahoma as a No. 10 seed.
Indiana rallied from a big deficit against Michigan, and moves in as the last projected team in the field for now. Michigan drops to a No. 11 seed at 17-14 on the season and the first team sent to Dayton, but it should be in the field based on its number of quality wins. Indiana would clinch a spot with a win today over Illinois, but it will be right on the bubble heading to Sunday with a loss.
Notre Dame continued the run of bubble trouble in the ACC, losing to Virginia Tech. The Fighting Irish were one of our last two teams in the field yesterday morning, but they now drop out. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, likely needs to win the ACC Tournament to get in the Big Dance.
Florida‘s bubble almost certainly burst with an overtime loss to Texas A&M, while the Aggies still have hopes of an at-large bid. They will have to knock off Auburn today to have any chance.
Form held in the Mountain West yesterday, though the games were close. That sets up semifinal showdowns between projected tournament teams: Boise State vs. Wyoming and Colorado State vs. San Diego State.
Baylor’s loss throws open the chase for a No. 1 seed, and Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Duke are all in action today and have hopes of claiming one of the spots.

Number 1 Seed Breakdown

Gonzaga and Arizona are locked onto the top line of the bracket after Arizona held on against Stanford yesterday. Baylor could have also locked up a spot with a win, but the door is now open for two others.

Those come down to the following:

Kansas gets a No. 1 seed if it wins the Big 12 Tournament.
Auburn gets a No. 1 seed if it wins the Big 12 Tournament.
Kentucky probably gets a No. 1 seed if it wins the SEC Tournament.
Duke has a possibility of getting a No. 1 seed if it wins the ACC Tournament and if other outcomes go its way.
Baylor holds on to the top line if either Kansas loses and/or someone other than Kentucky/Auburn/Duke win their conference tournaments.

Kentucky, as the relative favorite to win the SEC, is currently projected for our final No. 1 seed. In a close call, it would win a tiebreaker with its dominant win at Kansas. But that hold is tenuous and that final spot—and really the last two—are available for the taking just two days from Selection Sunday.

Where the True Bubble Lies Heading Into Friday

It looks like the bubble situation hasn’t resolved as we head into Friday. Some key teams, particularly in the Atlantic 10, are taking the court for the first time today, and some other hopefuls are still in action after big wins yesterday.

But the picture has come slightly into focus, and we can isolate where the bubble is and is not.

Right now, there appear to be around 3-5 spots in play. That specific number depends on a few factors:

Whether North Texas wins the auto bid in Conference USA or not.
Who wins the Atlantic 10.
Whether a bubble/bid thief situation develops, with candidates like Virginia Tech, Colorado, or someone from the American still a possibility.

Even though they are currently projected on the No. 11 line in today’s forecast, Wyoming, Rutgers, and Michigan look to be in, compared to the resumés of other teams, regardless of upcoming results.

That puts the following teams that are projected IN as at-larges right now, truly on the bubble cutline:

Davidson
SMU
Indiana

Currently, we project Dayton as the A-10 auto bid and UAB as the Conference USA auto bid, both on the 12 line. But if we are evaluating at-larges, Dayton would join the following right on the bubble:

VCU
North Texas
Xavier
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Texas A&M

I list A&M there, as it would be clearly out with a loss today, but almost certainly in with a big win against Auburn. Xavier, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest are done, and probably in trouble.

It’s easy to compare profiles of teams within the same tier of conference type: top-four conference, next group of six conferences, and then the true mid-majors. The hard calls are teams that look vastly different by schedule strength and opportunity.

Here are the three tiers this year at the bubble:

Top-Four Conference Teams (Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, ACC)

Oklahoma Rutgers > Michigan > Indiana = Xavier > Texas A&M > Florida

Next-Six Conference Teams (ACC, Pac-12, American, Mountain West, Atlantic 10, WCC)

Davidson = SMU > Dayton = VCU = Notre Dame = Wake Forest = BYU > Virginia Tech

While Dayton and VCU are similar to Notre Dame, Wake Forest and BYU right now, they have the opportunity to improve their outlooks, which is why they are higher on the bubble list.

Mid-Major Conference Teams

North Texas >> UAB >> Belmont = Drake = Missouri State

North Texas is the only mid-major this year that could be like 2021 Drake and 2019 Belmont and get a chance to play in Dayton in the First Four. In a vacuum, their resumé is better than Drake and similar to Belmont, but it also depends on what else happens with the other teams near the cutline today and tomorrow. For their part, North Texas needs to win today to get to the final.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Thursday, March 10)

Below is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games on Wednesday, March 9.

Teams with an asterisk are our projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. Teams listed in green font have already secured an automatic bid. (Click to enlarge.)

Bracket News of Note

Wake Forest and Xavier entered yesterday projected in the First Four play-in games in Dayton, but both were the victims of stunning upsets in overtime that may cost them NCAA bids. Xavier is the first team out now, while Wake Forest isn’t even in the First Four Out.
Colgate won the Patriot League and became the 12th team to guarantee a spot in the tournament.
Rick Pitino’s Iona lost in a shocker in the quarterfinals of the MAAC Tournament to Rider and will now almost certainly be in the NIT. Saint Peter’s now becomes our projected auto-bid winner from the MAAC.
Stanford completed a big comeback to beat Arizona State with the old “lose the ball then have a teammate pick it up and throw it high off the backboard” play, just like you draw it up.
Thursday offers all the conference tourney action you could want, and it is actually one of the best days of the college basketball calendar. No less than 27 different games involve at least one team we project in the at-large field (No. 12 seed or lower).

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Wednesday, March 9)

Here is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games played on Tuesday, March 8.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. Teams now listed in green font have already qualified for an automatic bid. (Click to enlarge.)

Bracket News of Note

Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s and almost certainly locked up the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
With Bellarmine’s win in the Atlantic Sun Final, Jacksonville State gets the NCAA auto-bid despite losing in the conference tournament semifinal. Just weird.
South Dakota State got its 30th victory (and 21st in a row) by winning the Summit League tourney, and looks like a dangerous No. 12 seed.
Bryant made its first-ever NCAA Tournament in a wild blowout win over Wagner that featured a fight in the stands that delayed the game for about 30 minutes.
Delaware and Wright State also secured NCAA bids on the busiest day for conference title games until this Saturday.
Only one conference final is played today, with Colgate favored over Navy in the Patriot League.
Meanwhile, major conference tournament action picks up, and bubble teams Xavier and Wake Forest both play today.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Tuesday, March 8)

Here is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games played on Monday, March 7,.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. (Click to enlarge.)

Bracket News of Note

Two more NCAA auto-bids were decided last night, as Georgia State (No. 3 seed, Sun Belt) and Chattanooga (No. 1 seed, Southern) won their respective conference tourneys. Chattanooga won on a deep three-pointer at the buzzer in overtime.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s both advanced in the WCC tourney and now meet in a big game in the final, with Gonzaga looking to avenge its only conference loss. A win for the Zags would likely lock up the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In addition to the WCC Tournament final, there are five other conference championship games tonight: Atlantic Sun, Colonial, Horizon, Northeast, and Summit League. Plus, the ACC, Big West, Conference USA, MAAC, and WAC Tournaments all start today.
There’s weirdness in the Atlantic Sun final, where Bellarmine is playing but is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. If Bellarmine beats Jacksonville today, then Jacksonville State (who lost in the semifinal) gets the bid, not Jacksonville. Who are the wizards that came up with this one?
The only overnight changes to our 2022 NCAA bracket projection were adjustments to auto-bids, after the top seeds in the Horizon (Cleveland State) and CAA (Towson) both lost yesterday and dropped out of the field.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Monday March 7)

Here is our projected 2022 NCAA tournament bracket, updated after all games played on Sunday, March 6.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences. (Click to enlarge.)

Bracket News of Note

Michigan (at Ohio State) and Memphis (vs. Houston) got big wins that likely sealed their spots in the NCAA Tournament, as we now project Michigan as a No. 9 seed and Memphis as a No. 10 seed, well above the bubble cutline.
Loyola-Chicago held on to beat Drake in the Missouri Valley final, removing any doubt about its spot in the tournament. The Ramblers have a recent history of tournament success and look targeted for a No. 10 seed that no one will want to play, since their power-rating numbers will again be higher than where the committee puts them.
Wisconsin had a chance Sunday to win the Big Ten outright but lost at home to Nebraska. That knocked the Badgers down a seed line in our projection and made them the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament behind Illinois.
Chattanooga and Furman both won in the Southern Conference semifinals, setting up a showdown between the top two seeds for the title tonight. The winner could be slotted at around a No. 13 seed.

Top Seeds Still Up for Grabs

Sometimes, by the time we get to the conference tournaments, the No. 1 seeds are fairly well determined, and those teams are only playing for tournament title pride. That isn’t the case this year. As we enter Monday, none of the top seeds have been fully locked up.

Gonzaga might need to win the WCC Tournament, starting with a semifinal game against San Francisco tonight.
Arizona might not need to win the Pac-12 tournament, but a poor showing in the first game could still have an impact.
Meanwhile, the results in the Big 12 (Kansas and Baylor) and SEC (Kentucky and Auburn) will likely decide at least a couple of spots. Right now, we are projecting Baylor and Kentucky for the last two spots, but that is written in pencil, not pen.

Bubble Breakdown

The bubble is actually fairly small this year in comparison to some past years. The biggest questions might be how many spots go away with other “bid thief” conference results that roll in.

Right now, we are projecting Dayton to win the Atlantic-1o, as that conference will almost certainly shrink the spots unless Davidson wins the tournament. Dayton is on the bubble, but outside it and on the border of our First Four Out, but for that auto bid projection in a balanced tournament.

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

Memphis
Creighton
Davidson
Wyoming
Rutgers
Xavier
Wake Forest
SMU

But of those, Memphis and Creighton feel pretty safe given their resumés and are likely to remain above the cutline even if they don’t win a game this week. The true bubble starts with Davidson in terms of needing to avoid bad losses to stay in.

Here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

Notre Dame
VCU
North Texas
Florida
Indiana
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
BYU

BYU is already done after losing to San Francisco, and is very likely out. But the Cougars set a baseline where teams need to be. The teams we listed above BYU can get an at-large with results this week, though some might require a run to the final.

Florida and Texas A&M will play each other in the SEC tournament, in what feels like an elimination game, with the winner having a chance to go on and play themselves in against Auburn.

Oklahoma probably needs to beat Baylor, which is no small task, to get above the bubble. Indiana needs to beat Michigan at minimum, and probably needs a win over Illinois after that.

North Texas lost at UTEP last weekend, putting it squarely on the bubble if it doesn’t win Conference USA. VCU is right on the cutline but needs results in the A-10 tournament.

Notre Dame has a lack of big wins that could sway the committee, and the Fighting Irish’s NET ranking puts them right on the cutline. They cannot afford a loss to Virginia Tech or Clemson/NC State in the ACC Tournament, and they still may need one more big win after that.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Monday, February 28)

We are entering the last week of the regular season for most conferences, and some conference tournaments are already set and starting soon.

Here is our projected 2022 college basketball bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 27.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences (click to enlarge).

Our Bracket Predictions Are Forward-Looking

Unlike some bracketologists who put out brackets based on what has happened so far, these bracket predictions are what we think the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday. That means they consider all of the following:

Who each team has beaten and lost to so far.
Who each team still has left to play.
The probabilities that each team will get key wins or losses moving forward.
How those additional games will impact each team’s resume on Selection Sunday.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, the past results will control more, and there won’t be too many games left to change the outlook. But we still have plenty of key matchups to close the season, plus many early conference tourney matchups are “Quad 1 and 2” games that impact seeding and selection decisions.

Top Seeds Unsettled, Baylor Moves In for Now

With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, the No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs, which isn’t always the case as we enter March. On Saturday, the top six teams in the polls all lost, including all four of last week’s projected top seeds.

Conference tournaments could be huge for deciding the top seeds this year. Not even Gonzaga is completely safe as a top seed. If the Zags lose a fourth game in the WCC tournament, the door is open for them to fall.

Right now, we are projecting Gonzaga, Arizona, and both Big 12 teams (Baylor and Kansas) to be the No. 1 seed. But the margins are thin, and what happens in the Big 12 and SEC tournaments are going to be huge. Outcomes in the Big Ten and Big East, and whether Duke can win out, can also impact the top seed line.

Buckle up.

Biggest Movers in Last Week

Here are some teams that have made significant moves up or down in the last week.

Biggest Movers Up

St. Mary’s (from No. 8 seed to No. 6 with win over Gonzaga)
Murray State (from No. 10 seed to No. 8 with big win over Belmont, finishing regular season 28-2)
Notre Dame (from Dayton play-in game as No. 12 seed to No. 9 seed with two more wins, winner of 7 of last 8)
North Carolina (from First Four Out to No. 11 seed with 2-0 week)
Memphis (from First Four Out to one of final two teams in as No. 12 seed with 2-0 week)

Biggest Movers Down

Xavier (from final No. 7 seed to a No. 11 seed with two more losses, four-game losing streak)
Rutgers (from No. 11 to last team in, No. 12 seed with two losses)

Mid-Majors and Other Bid Thief Situations

The “bubble” has plenty of opportunity to contract this year.

Right now, we are projecting North Texas as an at-large, with UAB getting the auto-bid out of Conference USA. So that’s one situation where we already have a slot accounted for, but if North Texas does win the auto bid, that opens a spot.

Murray State is also a lock at this point at 28-2 out of the OVC, while Loyola-Chicago is a more questionable case but still in play in the MVC.

Here are situations where a “bid thief” could emerge, if a team other than one we have projected in at-large range wins (we put our current percentage estimate of a team outside today’s projected field winning the auto bid in parentheses):

Atlantic 10 (79%): Davidson is the only current at-large team, but it’s going to be a wide-open tournament likely to result in a second team claiming the auto bid.
Conference USA (73%): North Texas has a decent at-large case, so if it doesn’t get the auto bid, C-USA could be a two-bid league.
Missouri Valley (63%): Not clear that Loyola-Chicago would get in, and might depend on if it gets to the conference tournament final or not.
Ohio Valley (39%): Anyone but Murray State winning takes away a bubble spot.
Mountain West (29%): The MWC has four potential at-large caliber teams, but a few others aren’t far behind here in a deeper conference this year.
ACC (26%): Duke is the heavy favorite, but there’s no clear other dominant team here, which means a Duke upset could result in a surprise run.
American (19%): Houston is in, SMU and Memphis are right on the bubble, so anyone but Houston winning likely knocks someone else out.

Add all of those up, and we are looking at potentially around 2-3 “bid thief” situations where the bubble shrinks by Selection Sunday. Keep that in mind when looking at who is projected in the field and where the real cutline might fall.

Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

Xavier
San Francisco
North Carolina
North Texas
Indiana
Memphis
Rutgers

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

Wake Forest
SMU
BYU
Oregon
Florida
VCU
Oklahoma
Virginia Tech

We will have a more in-depth bubble breakdown next Monday once the regular season ends. We’ll put the resumes under the microscope so we can see where the true uncertainty exists and who has a chance.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Monday, February 21)

Selection Sunday is three weeks away, and there were plenty of key results over the last week that shifted some outlooks. We also got a bracket reveal of how the committee would seed the top four lines as of Saturday. So, let’s update our weekly breakdown of how the 2022 NCAA Tournament field is looking.

Here is our projected 2022 college basketball bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 20.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences (click to enlarge).

Our Bracket Predictions Are Forward-Looking

Who each team has beaten and lost to so far.
Who each team still has left to play.
The probabilities that each team will get key wins or losses moving forward.
How those additional games will impact each team’s resume on Selection Sunday.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, the past results will control more, and there won’t be too many games left to change the outlook. But a lot of big games are still on the schedule with two weeks plus the conference tournaments looming.

Kansas’ Hold on a Top Seed Solidifies; Auburn Now In Doubt

Last week, we had Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, and Kentucky as the projected top seeds. Then Kentucky lost to Tennessee last Tuesday, while Kansas beat Oklahoma State one day earlier.

That was enough to shift Kansas into the final top spot, which is exactly where the committee had the Jayhawks in the early reveal. But Auburn also then lost at Florida on Saturday.

Right now, we would have it as Gonzaga and Arizona, then a bigger gap, with Kansas now slightly in front of Auburn for the third spot. Auburn is still in the last No. 1 seed slot now, but Kentucky, Baylor, or Purdue can all overtake the Tigers if they falter again.

Biggest Movers in Last Week

Here are some teams that have made significant moves up or down in the last week.

Biggest Movers Up

Iowa State (from No. 10 to No. 7 with wins over TCU and Oklahoma)
Creighton (from First Team Out to No. 9 seed with a 3-0 week)
San Diego State (from First Four Out to No. 8 seed by beating Utah State and Fresno State by combined 38 points)
Rutgers (from Next Four Out to in as No. 11 seed with win against Illinois)
Dayton (now projected as A-10 auto bid as No. 12 seed after two road wins and becoming highest power-rated team in conference)
North Texas (from Next Four Out to projected Last Four In at-large as No. 12 seed after road win at UAB)

Biggest Movers Down

Michigan State (from last No. 4 seed to a No. 7 seed with losses at Penn State and vs. Illinois)
San Francisco (from No. 9 to No. 11 seed with loss at St. Mary’s)
North Carolina (from No. 10 to First Four Out with home loss to Pitt)
BYU (from No. 12, last two at-large in, to now just outside First Four Out with loss at St. Mary’s)
Oklahoma (from No. 12, last two at-large in, to now just outside First Four Out by dropping to 14-13 with losses to Texas and Iowa State)
Saint Louis (from No. 12, A-10 auto bid, to not projected to win tourney after losses to St. Bonaventure and Davidson)

A Note on Michigan

Michigan was already projected in our field. Based on their resume, we would project the Wolverines to be around a No. 9 seed after the last week of results.

However, there’s still some uncertainty after what happened at the end of the game on Sunday between Michigan and Wisconsin. That could include a lengthy suspension of head coach Juwan Howard. (Update: he has been suspended for the final five regular season games, a stretch where they probably need to go 3-2 to feel more comfortable.)

As a result, for this projection, we’ve bumped down Michigan a seed line due to the additional risk coming out of what happened Sunday.

Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

Michigan
Davidson
Rutgers
Wake Forest
Indiana
San Francisco
Notre Dame
North Texas

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

Florida
North Carolina
Memphis
SMU
BYU
Oregon
Oklahoma
Kansas State

We saw plenty of movement between the two groups last week, and we’ll see if that continues this week. Not much separates the First Four Teams Out from the teams currently just in the field.

2022 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions (Monday, February 14)

Selection Sunday is four weeks away, so we will begin our weekly breakdown of how the 2022 NCAA Tournament field is shaping up.

Here is our projected 2022 college basketball bracket, current through all games played on Feb. 13.

Teams with an asterisk are our current projected automatic bid winners for their conferences (click to enlarge).

Our Bracket Predictions Are Forward-Looking

Who each team has beaten and lost to so far.
Who each team still has left to play.
The probabilities that each team will get key wins or losses moving forward.
How those additional games will impact each team’s resume on Selection Sunday.

As we get closer to Selection Sunday, the past results will control more, and there won’t be too many games left to change the outlook. But right now, there are plenty of key games remaining.

Projected Number 1 Seeds

Our current projected No. 1 seeds are Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, and Kentucky.

Gonzaga, Arizona, and Auburn have made pretty strong cases for the top seed line in recent weeks.
The final spot is very much in doubt.
Right now, Kentucky, Kansas and Baylor are prime contenders, and teams like Duke, Villanova, and Illinois could make a run at it as well.
If the season ended today, it probably would not be Kentucky (but it does not end today).
Based on the Wildcats’ predictive rating and their strong head-to-head performance in a blowout win at Kansas, we project them as the most likely team in this group to earn the final No. 1 seed right now.

Bubble Breakdown

Here are the last eight teams projected in the at-large field:

North Carolina
Iowa State
Indiana
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Memphis
Oklahoma
BYU

And here are the first eight teams out of the field (that we project as the top two seed lines in the NIT):

Creighton
Oregon
SMU
San Diego State
Florida
North Texas
Dayton
Rutgers

Not much separates the top group from the bottom group, and a single key result or bad loss could switch the outlooks. For example, Oregon would have been in before its home loss to California last weekend, while Memphis jumped around several teams and into the “last four in” by winning at Houston.