NC State at Virginia: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jan 20, 2020 7:00 pm - Charlottesville, VA
Odds: Virginia by 5.5, Total Points: 118

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST UVA
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting NCST UVA
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 51.2
Field Goal % 37.5% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 22.6 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 30.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 11.1 16.2
Free Throw % 71.6% 72.6%
Ball Control NCST UVA
Rebounds 32.3 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 7.7
Turnovers 9.9 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.3 4.0
Steals 7.2 5.2
Fouls 13.6 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST UVA
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with NCST UVA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 21.3%
Player Fouled 18.5% 20.8%
Turnover 15.1% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST UVA
Shot Blocked 7.9% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 24.0%