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Weber St at St Marys: Box Score Simulation

Monday Nov 28, 2011 10:30 pm - Moraga, CA
Odds: Saint Mary's by 11.5, Total Points: 140

Matchup Menu: WEB @ SMC

More Games From Nov 28, 2011

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring WEB SMC
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting WEB SMC
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 50.4 54.4
Field Goal % 41.0% 54.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 63.1%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 37.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 16.3
Free Throw % 73.7% 67.1%
Ball Control WEB SMC
Rebounds 22.7 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 18.2 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 4.5 9.7
Turnovers 9.1 9.7
Blocked Shots 1.2 3.6
Steals 5.1 5.4
Fouls 13.8 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WEB SMC
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with WEB SMC
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.2% 24.4%
Player Fouled 24.2% 21.3%
Turnover 14.0% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken WEB SMC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.5%
Offensive Rebound 14.0% 34.8%