Arizona at N Mex State : Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Nov 29, 2011 9:00 pm - Las Cruces, NM
Odds: New Mexico St. by 3.5, Total Points: 144

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting ARIZ NMSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 51.2 62.5
Field Goal % 49.4% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 45.2%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 32.7%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 12.9
Free Throw % 77.1% 64.3%
Ball Control ARIZ NMSU
Rebounds 36.0 32.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 21.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 10.1
Turnovers 12.5 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.7
Steals 3.7 5.2
Fouls 12.6 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ NMSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with ARIZ NMSU
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.3% 26.6%
Player Fouled 26.0% 17.8%
Turnover 17.6% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ NMSU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 25.8%