Portland St at Montana St: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 11, 2020 8:00 pm - Bozeman, MT
Odds: Montana St. by 1.5, Total Points: 145

More Games From Jan 11, 2020

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting PRST MTST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 57.0 48.1
Field Goal % 36.1% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 32.5
2 Point Shooting % 42.8% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 15.6
3 Point Shooting % 25.6% 31.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 28.2
Free Throw % 70.0% 70.5%
Ball Control PRST MTST
Rebounds 41.1 32.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 5.5
Turnovers 13.8 13.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 1.9
Steals 7.2 4.6
Fouls 24.0 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PRST MTST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with PRST MTST
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 19.6%
Player Fouled 22.7% 33.1%
Turnover 19.0% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken PRST MTST
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.8% 16.7%