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Idaho at N Mex State

  Saturday Jan 14, 2012 - 9:00 pm - Las Cruces, NM | Odds: New Mexico St. by 9, Total Points: 146.5 | Team Pages: IDHO | NMSU

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view

Shooting IDHO NMSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 54.8 50.3
Field Goal % 42.4% 51.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.8% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 13.6 14.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 36.8%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 27.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.7%

Ball Control IDHO NMSU
Rebounds 27.7 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 18.1 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 11.2
Turnovers 11.3 10.7
Blocked Shots 1.1 3.1
Steals 3.6 4.9
Fouls 19.0 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDHO NMSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view

% of Possessions with IDHO NMSU
2 Point Attempt 52.5% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 17.4% 18.0%
Player Fouled 21.1% 28.0%
Turnover 16.7% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 5.3%

Odds Per Shot Taken IDHO NMSU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.2% 38.4%