AR Lit Rock vs. App State: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Mar 7, 2018 3:00 pm - New Orleans, LA (Neutral Site)
Odds: Appalachian St. by 6, Total Points: 132

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR APP
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UALR APP
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 62.2
Field Goal % 38.9% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 49.3 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 41.2% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 17.4 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 34.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 12.9 19.7
Free Throw % 73.1% 69.5%
Ball Control UALR APP
Rebounds 37.9 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 30.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 10.7
Turnovers 10.3 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 5.4
Steals 5.3 5.2
Fouls 14.2 11.1

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR APP
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UALR APP
2 Point Attempt 56.9% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 24.1%
Player Fouled 15.2% 19.5%
Turnover 14.1% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR APP
Shot Blocked 8.9% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 28.8%