AR Lit Rock at Middle Tenn: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Feb 11, 2012 1:00 pm - Murfreesboro, TN
Odds: Middle Tennessee St. by 12.5, Total Points: 125

More Games From Feb 11, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR MTU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting UALR MTU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 48.4 56.7
Field Goal % 51.0% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 43.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 13.1 24.5
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 34.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 30.2 19.3
Free Throw % 71.5% 65.6%
Ball Control UALR MTU
Rebounds 36.4 30.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 20.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 9.7
Turnovers 14.1 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.1
Steals 6.5 6.3
Fouls 15.6 22.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR MTU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with UALR MTU
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 15.9% 29.3%
Player Fouled 31.0% 21.4%
Turnover 19.4% 18.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR MTU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.3% 25.8%