USC at Oregon St : Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jan 21, 2012 10:30 pm - Corvallis, OR
Odds: Oregon St. by 8.5, Total Points: 128

More Games From Jan 21, 2012

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Early Season Warning: This simulation relies purely on current-season statistics and results, which means there isn't enough data to make very good predictions until roughly a month's worth of games have been played. We recommend you ignore this box score until January 15; however, due to a high volume of user requests we will leave it un-hidden during this early adjustment period.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USC ORST
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USC ORST
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 51.9
Field Goal % 39.6% 35.0%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.8% 37.7%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 29.3%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 16.4
Free Throw % 69.6% 65.4%
Ball Control USC ORST
Rebounds 45.8 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 30.8 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 14.9 5.8
Turnovers 9.9 16.9
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.3
Steals 10.4 5.5
Fouls 17.1 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USC ORST
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USC ORST
2 Point Attempt 41.8% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 20.9%
Player Fouled 25.4% 23.5%
Turnover 13.6% 23.2%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 14.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USC ORST
Shot Blocked 6.6% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 36.3% 15.8%