LSU vs. Kentucky : Box Score Simulation

Friday Mar 9, 2012 1:00 pm - New Orleans, LA (Neutral Site)
Odds: Kentucky by 17, Total Points: 129.5

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU KENT
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting LSU KENT
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 63.6
Field Goal % 34.3% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 45.5 49.7
2 Point Shooting % 36.6% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 14.6 13.8
3 Point Shooting % 27.4% 32.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 21.8
Free Throw % 68.1% 73.8%
Ball Control LSU KENT
Rebounds 35.6 44.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 15.7
Turnovers 12.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 7.5
Steals 4.1 6.8
Fouls 13.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU KENT
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with LSU KENT
2 Point Attempt 53.0% 56.8%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 15.8%
Player Fouled 19.6% 19.5%
Turnover 17.8% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU KENT
Shot Blocked 12.0% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 40.4%